UPDATE: Robert Allenby tore knee ligaments in a fishing accident last weekend. He's out at least three weeks.
I really enjoy the WGC events. Most of the top players in the world play, there is no cut in the stroke play versions (so my picks look better!), and the courses are difficult enough where Stuart Appleby would be more likely to shoot 59 on the back than on the full 18.
This week, the Bridgestone is up, and it's played at Firestone CC in Ohio, which is a course that has been owned by one Tiger Woods. Woods has won the event seven times in ten tries (including his last four) and never finished worse than fourth at the course...a record that you'd be hard pressed to better searching the annals of golf history. That makes Tiger the favorite, even if he couldn't win at Augusta, Pebble, or St. Andrews, his other three faves, this season.
The rest of the field is good, so if Tiger stumbles, this thing is wide open. Paul Casey, Luke Donald and Justin Rose are on form, and all have two top tens in this event. Westwood has played like the Champion Golfer of the Year in 2010, although he didn't earn the title in Scotland, and he's got top tens in his last two appearances at Firestone.
As for the non-Euros, Furyk and Vijay have played this course very well, with Vijay winning in lieu of Tiger's ACL in 2008. I'm not sure either is the winner, but top 20s are very likely. Robert Allenby can play this course too, he finished second last year....and don't count out Americans Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson, who are primed for breakout wins on the semi-major stage.
Of course, as I pointed out earlier, the field is very strong, and any number of players could win. Phil and Ernie are here too, though this doesn't appear to be their favorite venue. Stricker and Louis Oosthuizen both have wins in the last month too.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Els
McIlroy
Who's Hot?
Westwood
Oosthuizen
Stricker
Rose
Casey
Who's Not?
Woods
Garcia
Cabrera
Weir
Cink
Course History
Woods
V. Singh
Furyk
Z. Johnson
Westwood
My Picks
Woods
Casey
Rose
D. Johnson
Stenson
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Monday, August 2, 2010
Double your pleasure
It's football time friends, and you're going to see more of it than baseball from here on out. Today? The argument for the two quarterback format.
Why does the so called standard fantasy football league only allow one starting quarterback?
If we are talking a 12 team league we have 24-36 running backs in starting lineups (or approx. 1 per NFL team), 24-48 WR/TE (1.5 per team) and one quarterback (less than .5 per team). It really doesn't make any sense. All the starting running backs matter, most of the starting receivers matter, and less than half of the quarterbacks are relevant?
The most important argument against a league that starts one quarterback is that it completely devalues the position. Half the teams in fantasy leagues are waiting on QBs and taking Phil Rivers in the fifth round and this is okay? Phil Rivers as the 50th best player in fantasy? Peyton Manning as the 15th best player in fantasy? Why does that make any sense? Yet, if I can get Rivers (or Romo, or Favre, or McNabb) later, I'm absolutely going to hit the scarcer positions first. It's just not right.
Now, picture a league where 36 quarterbacks are drafted and 24 are started every week. You think Manning is lasting until 15 then? No way. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady et al. SHOULD all be first round picks. They are the best players in the game. You should have to fight to get these guys. No one is going to wait on QBs when the penalty is an Orton-Hasselbeck pu pu platter.
In addition, two quarterback leagues allow for more strategy. In many leagues, quarterbacks are the highest scoring players (and I think they should be). Now, you have the option of pairing Romo with Brees and really altering the landscape of the draft/auction. It's just flat out more fun. One quarterback leagues are so robotic and there really isn't a lot of flexibility with draft strategies. Increase the value of the QB by adding two starters (most easily accomplished by adding a flex spot (or a second flex spot, where a QB is allowed), and the draft and the league immediately become more entertaining for all. The best players in the game should be a valued quanitity, period.
Cheers,
TFAM
Why does the so called standard fantasy football league only allow one starting quarterback?
If we are talking a 12 team league we have 24-36 running backs in starting lineups (or approx. 1 per NFL team), 24-48 WR/TE (1.5 per team) and one quarterback (less than .5 per team). It really doesn't make any sense. All the starting running backs matter, most of the starting receivers matter, and less than half of the quarterbacks are relevant?
The most important argument against a league that starts one quarterback is that it completely devalues the position. Half the teams in fantasy leagues are waiting on QBs and taking Phil Rivers in the fifth round and this is okay? Phil Rivers as the 50th best player in fantasy? Peyton Manning as the 15th best player in fantasy? Why does that make any sense? Yet, if I can get Rivers (or Romo, or Favre, or McNabb) later, I'm absolutely going to hit the scarcer positions first. It's just not right.
Now, picture a league where 36 quarterbacks are drafted and 24 are started every week. You think Manning is lasting until 15 then? No way. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady et al. SHOULD all be first round picks. They are the best players in the game. You should have to fight to get these guys. No one is going to wait on QBs when the penalty is an Orton-Hasselbeck pu pu platter.
In addition, two quarterback leagues allow for more strategy. In many leagues, quarterbacks are the highest scoring players (and I think they should be). Now, you have the option of pairing Romo with Brees and really altering the landscape of the draft/auction. It's just flat out more fun. One quarterback leagues are so robotic and there really isn't a lot of flexibility with draft strategies. Increase the value of the QB by adding two starters (most easily accomplished by adding a flex spot (or a second flex spot, where a QB is allowed), and the draft and the league immediately become more entertaining for all. The best players in the game should be a valued quanitity, period.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Deadline Drama
Heavy football coverage starts tomorrow.
In one of my baseball leagues, an owner made a large deal a couple months ago. He moved Ryan Howard for Carlos Pena, Yo Gallardo, and Andrew Bailey. The team acquiring the threespot was basically out of contention and going to be looking (at some point) to build toward the future. I thought the deal was curious for that reason. As much as I like Carlos and Yo, those guys (unless Gallardo had been lights out) just weren't going to help him rebuild in trades at the deadline. I know, as an owner who is usually a buyer at the deadline, that I try and land the biggest fish possible. If I'm sacrificing part of next year for a player(s) that will only be with me for a month and change, they better be high impact guys (and Howard > Pena). Which made me wonder, why give up Howard and crate less leverage at the deadline? I bet he gets nothing for Gallardo, Pena, or Bailey today, which is our league's deadline. It was a trade made by a non-contender that would have only helped a contender.
As far as the real deadline goes, there are a few interesting tidbits. Tyler Clippard pitched (poorly) in the seventh inning last night. I think Storen is the guy you want in the Nats pen. Pittsburgh isn't tipping their hand yet. It's 50/50 between Hanrahan and Meek.
Colby Rasmus may (and should) see an uptick in PT now that Ludwick is gone.
It looks like it's Juan Gutierrez for saves in Arizona with Heilman having an outside shot.
Gordon Beckham should be in all starting lineups right now.
Dom Brown isn't much of a play for 2010, especially when Victorino returns, but he'll be a 2011 full time starter, and was the number one prospect in the minors when he was recalled.
Brett Wallace should hit right away in Houston, but isn't a high impact guy.
I love that Berkman goes to New York, but he'll see fewer at bats, and won't see an increase in fantasy value. The deal also dings the value of Posada, who has sore knees and needs some of his ABs to come at DH.
Delmon Young is unreal. Mea culpa!
Jeremy Hellickson will start for the Rays on Monday, then, I'm guessing, will be moved to the bullpen for the stretch run.
Cheers,
TFAM
In one of my baseball leagues, an owner made a large deal a couple months ago. He moved Ryan Howard for Carlos Pena, Yo Gallardo, and Andrew Bailey. The team acquiring the threespot was basically out of contention and going to be looking (at some point) to build toward the future. I thought the deal was curious for that reason. As much as I like Carlos and Yo, those guys (unless Gallardo had been lights out) just weren't going to help him rebuild in trades at the deadline. I know, as an owner who is usually a buyer at the deadline, that I try and land the biggest fish possible. If I'm sacrificing part of next year for a player(s) that will only be with me for a month and change, they better be high impact guys (and Howard > Pena). Which made me wonder, why give up Howard and crate less leverage at the deadline? I bet he gets nothing for Gallardo, Pena, or Bailey today, which is our league's deadline. It was a trade made by a non-contender that would have only helped a contender.
As far as the real deadline goes, there are a few interesting tidbits. Tyler Clippard pitched (poorly) in the seventh inning last night. I think Storen is the guy you want in the Nats pen. Pittsburgh isn't tipping their hand yet. It's 50/50 between Hanrahan and Meek.
Colby Rasmus may (and should) see an uptick in PT now that Ludwick is gone.
It looks like it's Juan Gutierrez for saves in Arizona with Heilman having an outside shot.
Gordon Beckham should be in all starting lineups right now.
Dom Brown isn't much of a play for 2010, especially when Victorino returns, but he'll be a 2011 full time starter, and was the number one prospect in the minors when he was recalled.
Brett Wallace should hit right away in Houston, but isn't a high impact guy.
I love that Berkman goes to New York, but he'll see fewer at bats, and won't see an increase in fantasy value. The deal also dings the value of Posada, who has sore knees and needs some of his ABs to come at DH.
Delmon Young is unreal. Mea culpa!
Jeremy Hellickson will start for the Rays on Monday, then, I'm guessing, will be moved to the bullpen for the stretch run.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Greenbriar Classic
Gee, I just love these thrilling events at courses where we have no history and household names such as Dean Wilson and Greg Chalmers are capturing the TV coverage on a Sunday afternoon. Exit Canadian Open, enter Greenbriar Classic!
The Old White Course at the Greenbriar Resort in White Sulpher Springs, West Virginia is the host this week, and it has plenty of history (built around the turn of the century), just not the recent PGA Tour history that would help us decipher the code this week for fantasy sticks.
The inaugural Greenbriar event features Jim Furyk as the top ranked golfer in the world, and he'll be on the short list of guys who should contend this week. The only other player in the top 25 in the WGR is Matt Kuchar, who has continued his breakout season with three top 10s in his last four Tour starts.
Other golfers in the field who are playing weel include last week's Euro winner (and former Tour winner) Richard Johnson, and the aforementioned Wilson, but neither has lit the world on fire in 2010. I like Ricky Barnes this week, who is steadily knocking on the victory door. Carl Petterson is here too off his win and blistery 60 last Saturday in Toronto. Jeff Overton and JB Holmes have also been playing some golf as of late, and Trevor Immelman is creeping back into the conversation with consecutive top 25s for the first time since 2008.
In non-Greenbriar news, good to see that AK is almost ready to tee it up again.
Most Talent
Furyk
Garcia
Kuchar
Immelman
Holmes?
Course History
None
Who's Hot?
Kuchar
C. Petterson
Overton
R. Johnson
de Jonge
Who's Not?
Garcia
Kelly
Leonard
JM Singh
Toms
My Picks
Barnes
Kuchar
Furyk
Overton
Immelman
Cheers,
TFAM
The Old White Course at the Greenbriar Resort in White Sulpher Springs, West Virginia is the host this week, and it has plenty of history (built around the turn of the century), just not the recent PGA Tour history that would help us decipher the code this week for fantasy sticks.
The inaugural Greenbriar event features Jim Furyk as the top ranked golfer in the world, and he'll be on the short list of guys who should contend this week. The only other player in the top 25 in the WGR is Matt Kuchar, who has continued his breakout season with three top 10s in his last four Tour starts.
Other golfers in the field who are playing weel include last week's Euro winner (and former Tour winner) Richard Johnson, and the aforementioned Wilson, but neither has lit the world on fire in 2010. I like Ricky Barnes this week, who is steadily knocking on the victory door. Carl Petterson is here too off his win and blistery 60 last Saturday in Toronto. Jeff Overton and JB Holmes have also been playing some golf as of late, and Trevor Immelman is creeping back into the conversation with consecutive top 25s for the first time since 2008.
In non-Greenbriar news, good to see that AK is almost ready to tee it up again.
Most Talent
Furyk
Garcia
Kuchar
Immelman
Holmes?
Course History
None
Who's Hot?
Kuchar
C. Petterson
Overton
R. Johnson
de Jonge
Who's Not?
Garcia
Kelly
Leonard
JM Singh
Toms
My Picks
Barnes
Kuchar
Furyk
Overton
Immelman
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Trade Deadline Thoughts
I'm guessing getting Dan Haren on a resonable contract for the next 3 1/2 years for a pittance is a good signal that we have a buyer's market on our hands in 2010. Here's hoping your fantasy team makes out like the Angels at the deadline, not the D'Backs. Terrible deal.
Haren's status doesn't change much for fantasy. He may win more games, but the rest stays the same. He goes to the more difficult league, but the ballpark effects should negate that pretty well. I'm going to call it a very slight win for his value, but not enough to make me think of him in a different light.
Actually, most established players who are dealt at the deadline (Haren and Cliff Lee included) will not see much of a change in value. Stars are stars and they can play anywhere. For fantasy purposes, the players who probably fluctuate in value the most are relief pitchers. If you are in a league where saves are at a premium and all other relievers are worthless, you'll want to keep close tabs on the market. Could Octavio Dotel be dealt? Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan could gain value. What about Matt Capps? Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard anyone? What's going to happen with the Toronto bullpen? If you have the roster space now, it is a good idea to make speculative plays on some of these guys. What's the worst thing that could happen, you drop them in a week? If you don't have the roster space, this week is a good week to keep your ear to the door and be ready to act quickly when a deal is made.
Cheers,
TFAM
Haren's status doesn't change much for fantasy. He may win more games, but the rest stays the same. He goes to the more difficult league, but the ballpark effects should negate that pretty well. I'm going to call it a very slight win for his value, but not enough to make me think of him in a different light.
Actually, most established players who are dealt at the deadline (Haren and Cliff Lee included) will not see much of a change in value. Stars are stars and they can play anywhere. For fantasy purposes, the players who probably fluctuate in value the most are relief pitchers. If you are in a league where saves are at a premium and all other relievers are worthless, you'll want to keep close tabs on the market. Could Octavio Dotel be dealt? Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan could gain value. What about Matt Capps? Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard anyone? What's going to happen with the Toronto bullpen? If you have the roster space now, it is a good idea to make speculative plays on some of these guys. What's the worst thing that could happen, you drop them in a week? If you don't have the roster space, this week is a good week to keep your ear to the door and be ready to act quickly when a deal is made.
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, July 23, 2010
Greene means go
I have to say, much controversy has arisen from me placing Shonn Greene at the back of a 12 team first round last week. Now that I'm in New York, and awaiting the arrival of the passionate Jet fan contingent to the beach, I should probably explain.
It wasn't lost on me that the Jets handed the keys to the car to Greene, not Thomas Jones, when the season was on the line last January. Shonn plowed through the Bengals and Chargers for 263 yards and two scores on just 44 carries in the team's two playoff victories prior to being slowed by the Colts. With Jones being shown the door in the offseason, Greene was firmly in line to be a 1500 yard, 12-15 TD guy in 2010 on the Jets rush happy offense (Don't think, btw, that changes even with Santonio's arrival). Those numbers argue Greene actually could be ranked higher, and may just have been number three overall, if the Jets didn't sign LaDainian Tomlinson. You think he can't get those 1500/15 numbers? His own team thought he was better than Jones in the playoffs, and TJ had himself put up over 1400 and 14 TDs already that year.
The real question here is the Tomlinson effect. Okay, that's not a question, but you get it. How about this? How much will LT's arrival impact Greene's fantasy value? To me, that is one of the central fantasy football questions of the season. We can safely assume that the Jets didn't bring in one of the all time greats to be this guy. He's going to play. I'm going to grant him 10-12 touches a game, which is fine, and does little to harm Greene's value. The problem is the goal line. With 138 rushing touchdowns to his credit, LT is one of the most prolific scorers in NFL (and fantasy) history. If he steals those goal line carries, Greene's value takes an obvious hit.
So, be mindful of this situation in the weeks leading up to your draft. My ranking of Greene was actually a cop out, he isn't going to be the 11th or 12th best player heading into the season. If he gets goal line touches, he's top five, if not, he's in the second round.
Cheers,
TFAM
It wasn't lost on me that the Jets handed the keys to the car to Greene, not Thomas Jones, when the season was on the line last January. Shonn plowed through the Bengals and Chargers for 263 yards and two scores on just 44 carries in the team's two playoff victories prior to being slowed by the Colts. With Jones being shown the door in the offseason, Greene was firmly in line to be a 1500 yard, 12-15 TD guy in 2010 on the Jets rush happy offense (Don't think, btw, that changes even with Santonio's arrival). Those numbers argue Greene actually could be ranked higher, and may just have been number three overall, if the Jets didn't sign LaDainian Tomlinson. You think he can't get those 1500/15 numbers? His own team thought he was better than Jones in the playoffs, and TJ had himself put up over 1400 and 14 TDs already that year.
The real question here is the Tomlinson effect. Okay, that's not a question, but you get it. How about this? How much will LT's arrival impact Greene's fantasy value? To me, that is one of the central fantasy football questions of the season. We can safely assume that the Jets didn't bring in one of the all time greats to be this guy. He's going to play. I'm going to grant him 10-12 touches a game, which is fine, and does little to harm Greene's value. The problem is the goal line. With 138 rushing touchdowns to his credit, LT is one of the most prolific scorers in NFL (and fantasy) history. If he steals those goal line carries, Greene's value takes an obvious hit.
So, be mindful of this situation in the weeks leading up to your draft. My ranking of Greene was actually a cop out, he isn't going to be the 11th or 12th best player heading into the season. If he gets goal line touches, he's top five, if not, he's in the second round.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Canadian Open
Vacation. I'm on it, and I'm traveling...so, I can't write until Thursday.
Here is what you need to know about the Canadian Open. Past results are meaningless, because the St. George's venue hasn't hosted the event since our parents were doing bomb scare drills in school. Also, just because it's in Canada doesn't mean you should pick Mike Weir. He stinks. Here is a link to information about this week's field. I like Sean O'Hair, he's been playing very well as of late. I worry Paul Casey is going to suffer from a slight - I was in contention at a major last weekend and let some random guy who we'll never hear from again trounce me - hangover.
Back at it Thursday.
Cheers,
TFAM
Here is what you need to know about the Canadian Open. Past results are meaningless, because the St. George's venue hasn't hosted the event since our parents were doing bomb scare drills in school. Also, just because it's in Canada doesn't mean you should pick Mike Weir. He stinks. Here is a link to information about this week's field. I like Sean O'Hair, he's been playing very well as of late. I worry Paul Casey is going to suffer from a slight - I was in contention at a major last weekend and let some random guy who we'll never hear from again trounce me - hangover.
Back at it Thursday.
Cheers,
TFAM
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