Greene means go

I have to say, much controversy has arisen from me placing Shonn Greene at the back of a 12 team first round last week.  Now that I'm in New York, and awaiting the arrival of the passionate Jet fan contingent to the beach, I should probably explain.

It wasn't lost on me that the Jets handed the keys to the car to Greene, not Thomas Jones, when the season was on the line last January.  Shonn plowed through the Bengals and Chargers for 263 yards and two scores on just 44 carries in the team's two playoff victories prior to being slowed by the Colts.  With Jones being shown the door in the offseason, Greene was firmly in line to be a 1500 yard, 12-15 TD guy in 2010 on the Jets rush happy offense (Don't think, btw, that changes even with Santonio's arrival).  Those numbers argue Greene actually could be ranked higher, and may just have been number three overall, if the Jets didn't sign LaDainian Tomlinson.  You think he can't get those 1500/15 numbers?  His own team thought he was better than Jones in the playoffs, and TJ had himself put up over 1400 and 14 TDs already that year.

The real question here is the Tomlinson effect.  Okay, that's not a question, but you get it.  How about this?  How much will LT's arrival impact Greene's fantasy value?  To me, that is one of the central fantasy football questions of the season.  We can safely assume that the Jets didn't bring in one of the all time greats to be this guy.  He's going to play.  I'm going to grant him 10-12 touches a game, which is fine, and does little to harm Greene's value.  The problem is the goal line.  With 138 rushing touchdowns to his credit, LT is one of the most prolific scorers in NFL (and fantasy) history.  If he steals those goal line carries, Greene's value takes an obvious hit.

So, be mindful of this situation in the weeks leading up to your draft.  My ranking of Greene was actually a cop out, he isn't going to be the 11th or 12th best player heading into the season.  If he gets goal line touches, he's top five, if not, he's in the second round.

Cheers,
TFAM