The First Round

With many people starting to talk drafts dates, draft order and even trades in keeper leagues, it is time to start taking fantasy football a little more seroiusly around here.  Today, I'm beginning my research.  I'll be going through everything position by position in plenty of time for all of your drafts.  I'll look at sleepers and busts, and I'll talk strategy and even debate some league rules as we move into the beginning of training camp season.  Today though?  Let's start with the mid-July top 12 overall players, and for today, we'll go with a one quarterback format.

To me, the first round requires one thing.  A sure thing.  No risk here, you need production or you aren't going anywhere.  No reaches here.  Wait a minute, EVERY pick after pick five is a specualtion play.  Fantasy football, ladies and gentlemen!

1.  Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
I outlined my concerns about Adrian Peterson here.  If CJ gets goal line touches like he did last year (and LenDale isn't even in the picture now), he's the clear choice.

2.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
I'm concerned, but I'm not THAT concerned.

3.  Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
I like that he's an every down guy, and I like that he's a goal line guy.  He may have lost a step, but you have to like his number of opportunities.

4.  Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
If I knew Rice would get goal line looks he'd be number two on the list.  McGahee just vultured him so many times last year.  Great back though.

5.  Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
He is the next sure thing, and the clear number one WR with Fitzgerald losing Kurt Warner.  By the way, the sure thing dropoff begins now.  We get a little risky here, and number 6 is the worst pick in the draft.

6.  Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
I'm not as high on Gore as many, but still have him here.  Why?  Because it's a five player draft.  There isn't much separating 6 from 20 in my book and I'd rather pick three times between 12 and 20 than have picks six and seven.  Gore is an every down back, period.

7.  Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
I've got him even with Gore, I just think the Niners score more points.  Similar skill sets, same opportunity, similar injury risk.

8.  Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
I think he breaks out this year.  Big time QB, a chance at a big play back, a tight end, Burleson on the other side.  If he stays healthy he finishes in the top two at WR.

9.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints
I like a lot of quarterbacks at the lower levels this year, so a first rounder isn't really necessary, but the running backs all have questions, so, talent wins out.  In a two QB league, he'd be number five on the board.

10.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
Brees has been doing it longer and has a slightly better playoff schedule, but they are essentailly the same for fantasy purposes.

11.  Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
I like Greene, a lot.  Then the Jets bring in LT and I don't like him as much.  He deserves his own posting (and he'll get it soon), but he deserves this spot.

12.  Ryan Matthews, RB, Chargers
I talked about Matthews earlier this summer.  As long as Norv is true to his word, and he gets goal line touches, Matthews will earn this spot.

Cheers,
TFAM