With the NFL as a whole turning more and more to a committee approach in the backfield, finding the guys who can help you win fantasy titles is getting more difficult by the year. I have two quick theories when it comes to running backs. One, you want the guy who scores the touchdowns in a committee. I've been burned by too many yardage guys in the past who can't get in the end zone. Also, it may be obvious, but I see running backs as situational. They can be goal line guys, first and second down guys, and third down guys. If you get one that's all three (like Chris Johnson) you have a beast. You need at least two though to be on any of my fantasy teams.
1. Chris Johnson -- As long as he is the goal line guy, he's number one.
2. Adrian Peterson -- Too much talent to drop to three, but there are scenarios (if Gerhart vultures some scores) where he could have a down year.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew -- He also gets all three situations as the Jags every down guy.
4. Ray Rice -- Explosive enough to be number two if it wasn't for McGahee, who sniped a bunch of TDs late last year.
5. Frank Gore -- Gore also is on the field in all three situations, but the talent level has dropped from the top four significantly.
6. Steven Jackson -- Pretty much ditto from what I said about Gore. Apples to apples with these two.
7. Shonn Greene -- I've written a lot about Greene. The sky is the limit, and it's powder blue with LTs presence.
8. Ryan Matthews -- Shaping up to get a lot of touches and scores on a good offense.
9. Beanie Wells -- I see a breakout year coming.
10. DeAngelo Williams -- Not sure what to expect, but I know this starts a run of guys I don't want.
11. Rashard Mendenhall -- He's shown flashes, but little consistency. I'm wondering how many touches he'll get.
12. Michael Turner -- I see him as being on the decline.
13. Jamaal Charles -- He has amazing talent, as the last eight games of 2009 show. Just need to silence Thomas Jones.
14. Cedric Benson -- I think he's clearly better than Ryan Grant, and the Bengals run more.
15. Pierre Thomas -- Thomas has upside, depends on how they use him. I experienced the down side on two of my 2009 squads.
16. Ryan Grant -- I just don't think he's very talented, and the Pack will throw in goal line sitautions.
17. Knowshon Moreno -- He is getting a repuation of being injury prone. I also think Denver will be horrible.
18. Jonathon Stewart -- He may be better than Williams, and if he gets 80% of goal line touches he's the one you want.
19. LeSean McCoy -- A poor man's Westbrook. I haven't seen Andy Reid have any faith in McCoy yet, not that he earned any.
20. Joseph Addai -- I guess he is a safe play, though not sexy. I'm not a Donald Brown guy.
21. Marion Barber -- I just have a hunch he has a better year than Felix. Barber is the goal line guy, and he plays hurt, Felix doesn't.
22. Justin Forsett -- There is a chance that he is a three situation guy.
23. Jahvid Best -- I'm back to liking these guys again. That started at number 21.
24. Steve Slaton -- Just kidding.
25. Ricky Williams -- I think he's better than Ronnie.
26. Ronnie Brown -- You almost have to take them both.
27. Ahmad Bradshaw -- It's a lock that he has more fantasy points than Jacobs.
28. Matt Forte -- I'm thinking he and Chester are about a 50/50 split with Forte the favorite for the stripe.
29. Darren McFadden -- Could the QB change spark his career? Michael Bush may have something to say.
30. Fred Jackson -- I just don't see Spiller scoring much unless he starts braking long ones...
31. CJ Spiller -- ...which he is capable of doing.
32. Michael Bush -- Its all about the carries.
33. Felix Jones
34. Clinton Portis -- Yeah, no.
35. Brandon Jacobs
36. Reggie Bush -- Not reliable at all.
37. Cadillac Willams -- Ward is still a factor.
38. Donald Brown
39. Thomas Jones
40. Chester Taylor
41. Derrick Ward -- Could have upside if/when Cadillac gets hurt.
42. Jerome Harrison -- See Hardesty.
43. Montario Hardesty -- I'm not going to pretend I know how this is going to play out.
44. Laurence Maroney -- We've played this game before.
45. Mike Bell -- I could see him having a bigger role than we think.
46. Tashard Choice -- He's really good, and the two guys in front of him aren't exactly your healthiest folks.
47. LaDainian Tomlinson -- I guess he could score 10, unfortunately.
48. Fred Taylor -- New England is a crapshoot.
49. Lex Hilliard -- Just a heads-up for dynasty leaguers that Ronnie and Ricky are both free agents.
50. Ben Tate, Arian Foster, Steve Slaton, Domanick Davis, Ryan Moats -- You know how I feel.
Cheers,
TFAM
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