With many people starting to talk drafts dates, draft order and even trades in keeper leagues, it is time to start taking fantasy football a little more seroiusly around here. Today, I'm beginning my research. I'll be going through everything position by position in plenty of time for all of your drafts. I'll look at sleepers and busts, and I'll talk strategy and even debate some league rules as we move into the beginning of training camp season. Today though? Let's start with the mid-July top 12 overall players, and for today, we'll go with a one quarterback format.
To me, the first round requires one thing. A sure thing. No risk here, you need production or you aren't going anywhere. No reaches here. Wait a minute, EVERY pick after pick five is a specualtion play. Fantasy football, ladies and gentlemen!
1. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
I outlined my concerns about Adrian Peterson here. If CJ gets goal line touches like he did last year (and LenDale isn't even in the picture now), he's the clear choice.
2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
I'm concerned, but I'm not THAT concerned.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
I like that he's an every down guy, and I like that he's a goal line guy. He may have lost a step, but you have to like his number of opportunities.
4. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
If I knew Rice would get goal line looks he'd be number two on the list. McGahee just vultured him so many times last year. Great back though.
5. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
He is the next sure thing, and the clear number one WR with Fitzgerald losing Kurt Warner. By the way, the sure thing dropoff begins now. We get a little risky here, and number 6 is the worst pick in the draft.
6. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
I'm not as high on Gore as many, but still have him here. Why? Because it's a five player draft. There isn't much separating 6 from 20 in my book and I'd rather pick three times between 12 and 20 than have picks six and seven. Gore is an every down back, period.
7. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
I've got him even with Gore, I just think the Niners score more points. Similar skill sets, same opportunity, similar injury risk.
8. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
I think he breaks out this year. Big time QB, a chance at a big play back, a tight end, Burleson on the other side. If he stays healthy he finishes in the top two at WR.
9. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
I like a lot of quarterbacks at the lower levels this year, so a first rounder isn't really necessary, but the running backs all have questions, so, talent wins out. In a two QB league, he'd be number five on the board.
10. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
Brees has been doing it longer and has a slightly better playoff schedule, but they are essentailly the same for fantasy purposes.
11. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
I like Greene, a lot. Then the Jets bring in LT and I don't like him as much. He deserves his own posting (and he'll get it soon), but he deserves this spot.
12. Ryan Matthews, RB, Chargers
I talked about Matthews earlier this summer. As long as Norv is true to his word, and he gets goal line touches, Matthews will earn this spot.
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, July 16, 2010
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
The (British) Open Championship
No matter what we call it, the Open Championship is the best golf tournament played outside of Augusta in the world on a yearly basis. Considering Augusta is now seemingly ruled by just two men, it actually may be the best golf tournament to watch if you like a little suspense (and potentially wild weather) with your haggis and clootie dumplings.
This year's event is held at the St. Andrews Old Course, which is widely reknowned as the birthplace of golf. In recent times its also been viewed as the epicenter of Tiger Woods' domain (was looking for the name of a dwelling for a tiger....lair? den?).
Woods has won the last two Opens at St. Andrews by a combined 13 strokes, and he has to be the favorite for that reason alone, despite his mortal play in the post Elin era. Woods is successful at the Old Course for three reasons. One, he's the best player in the world. Two, the fairways roll forever, so he can keep the driver in the bag and still roll it out there over 300 yards, and three, wayward drives aren't quite as penal on the other side if the pond.
After Woods, I like Phil as the second choice. I know he has a terrible record in this event, but I believe Mickelson has morphed into a player who is going to contend at pretty much every major contested. If you forget his record at the British you can make a good case that the course sets up well for his game too. Plus, there is a rule when it comes to picking guys for majors. Tiger and Phil are always the first two choices. My buddy Steve learned this the hard way at Augusta when he took Els before Phil in a draft. You just don't make that mistake, and it cost Steve $20.
So, who else has a fighting chance here? Ernie has 12 top tens (and a win) in 18 tries at the Open, which is a stunning record. He should be there considering his 2010 form. Westwood has to be considered in every major these days, though the calf injury is a concern. Retief, Sergio and Furyk also all have at least five top 10s in this event, and don't forget two time champ Paddy Harrington, who is more than capable. All but Sergio come in playing well enough to contend.
There are a host of others who obviously can put it together this week too. Justin Rose is the hottest player in the world. Ryan Moore and Sean O'Hair are solid American options, both of which are in the midst of their best play of the year on the PGA Tour. Eduardo Molinari won the Scottish Open last week, and joins US Open champ Graeme McDowell, Luke Donald and Ian Poulter (who likes his chance this week) as Brits with a good chance. Rory McIlroy is playing well enough too.
Four names for deeper sleepers? Jason Day, Jeff Overton, Rhys Davies, and Ryo Ishikawa. All are playing well coming into Thursday. I can't wait.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Stricker
Els
Course History
Woods
Els
Singh
Goosen
Garcia
Who's Hot?
Rose
Stricker
Moore
E. Molinari
McDowell
Who's Not?
Garcia
Woods
Glover
Weir
Cabrera
My Picks
Woods
Mickelson
Els
Poulter
McIlroy
O'Hair
Moore
Harrington
Rose
Ishikawa
Cheers,
TFAM
This year's event is held at the St. Andrews Old Course, which is widely reknowned as the birthplace of golf. In recent times its also been viewed as the epicenter of Tiger Woods' domain (was looking for the name of a dwelling for a tiger....lair? den?).
Woods has won the last two Opens at St. Andrews by a combined 13 strokes, and he has to be the favorite for that reason alone, despite his mortal play in the post Elin era. Woods is successful at the Old Course for three reasons. One, he's the best player in the world. Two, the fairways roll forever, so he can keep the driver in the bag and still roll it out there over 300 yards, and three, wayward drives aren't quite as penal on the other side if the pond.
After Woods, I like Phil as the second choice. I know he has a terrible record in this event, but I believe Mickelson has morphed into a player who is going to contend at pretty much every major contested. If you forget his record at the British you can make a good case that the course sets up well for his game too. Plus, there is a rule when it comes to picking guys for majors. Tiger and Phil are always the first two choices. My buddy Steve learned this the hard way at Augusta when he took Els before Phil in a draft. You just don't make that mistake, and it cost Steve $20.
So, who else has a fighting chance here? Ernie has 12 top tens (and a win) in 18 tries at the Open, which is a stunning record. He should be there considering his 2010 form. Westwood has to be considered in every major these days, though the calf injury is a concern. Retief, Sergio and Furyk also all have at least five top 10s in this event, and don't forget two time champ Paddy Harrington, who is more than capable. All but Sergio come in playing well enough to contend.
There are a host of others who obviously can put it together this week too. Justin Rose is the hottest player in the world. Ryan Moore and Sean O'Hair are solid American options, both of which are in the midst of their best play of the year on the PGA Tour. Eduardo Molinari won the Scottish Open last week, and joins US Open champ Graeme McDowell, Luke Donald and Ian Poulter (who likes his chance this week) as Brits with a good chance. Rory McIlroy is playing well enough too.
Four names for deeper sleepers? Jason Day, Jeff Overton, Rhys Davies, and Ryo Ishikawa. All are playing well coming into Thursday. I can't wait.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Stricker
Els
Course History
Woods
Els
Singh
Goosen
Garcia
Who's Hot?
Rose
Stricker
Moore
E. Molinari
McDowell
Who's Not?
Garcia
Woods
Glover
Weir
Cabrera
My Picks
Woods
Mickelson
Els
Poulter
McIlroy
O'Hair
Moore
Harrington
Rose
Ishikawa
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, July 10, 2010
MarKet MaDnESS
Cliff Lee's move to Texas yesterday got me thinking, which players could be on the move in my (and your) fantasy leagues that can provide a boost for your team down the stretch. Today, I'm brining you buy low guys who may be had for cheap, but who are likely to help champiuonship teams down the stretch.
Cliff Lee, SP, Rangers
I know he's moving from heaven to hell as far as ballparks go for starters, but if the Lee owner in your league wants to sell, I'd buy. Elite SPs carry their value no matter the park, as Roy Halladay and Ubaldo Jimenez have shown us this year.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs
I've been trying to buy low on A-Ram all year and have been unsuccessful, mainly due to an owner's apathy in one league, but I still think there is promise here. Ramirez has struggled with injury but is just a season removed from being a top 40 overall player and he has three homers and nine hits in his last four games.
Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros
Berkman is showing he still has some pop in his bat with homers in his last four games. Remember, he missed significant time this spring and could just be getting his legs.
Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves
He has mixed in a few clunkers lately, but I think he'll be energized by a pennant race and will be a dominant SP the rest of the way. Hanson is over 9 K/9 and that ERA is inflated due to two horrendous starts. He has elite stuff.
I'd also like to mention that I think Longoria, Braun, Mauer, Lincecum, Markakis, Greinke, Garza, and Jeter will all be great options in the second half despite underperforming thus far (some worse than others). If you can buy these guys for 75 cents on the dollar, you should be rewarded with usual production from here on out.
Cheers,
TFAM
Cliff Lee, SP, Rangers
I know he's moving from heaven to hell as far as ballparks go for starters, but if the Lee owner in your league wants to sell, I'd buy. Elite SPs carry their value no matter the park, as Roy Halladay and Ubaldo Jimenez have shown us this year.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs
I've been trying to buy low on A-Ram all year and have been unsuccessful, mainly due to an owner's apathy in one league, but I still think there is promise here. Ramirez has struggled with injury but is just a season removed from being a top 40 overall player and he has three homers and nine hits in his last four games.
Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros
Berkman is showing he still has some pop in his bat with homers in his last four games. Remember, he missed significant time this spring and could just be getting his legs.
Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves
He has mixed in a few clunkers lately, but I think he'll be energized by a pennant race and will be a dominant SP the rest of the way. Hanson is over 9 K/9 and that ERA is inflated due to two horrendous starts. He has elite stuff.
I'd also like to mention that I think Longoria, Braun, Mauer, Lincecum, Markakis, Greinke, Garza, and Jeter will all be great options in the second half despite underperforming thus far (some worse than others). If you can buy these guys for 75 cents on the dollar, you should be rewarded with usual production from here on out.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
John Deere Classic
The John Deere Classic has been known as one of the least attractive events on Tour for yearsm and it still offers up the least prize money of any event on the regular summer schedule (that isn't opposing a WGC or major event). Still, I'd arguer that, at least in 2010, the Deere's field isn't half bad, and has risen above events like the Nelson, Zurich and a couple others.
Steve Stricker is the headliner here and he's also the defending champion. While his form has been off since early in the year due to injury, I'd expect a rebound this week. If not, I can't see him being much of a factor until after the PGA.
The other favorites this week who have notched positive results on this track include Tim Clark (second and 18th in two apps.), Zach Johnson (second in 2009 to Stricker), Jonathan Byrd (a win and a second), and Kenny Perry, who has five top 10s in nine starts. Of those guys, Clark and Johnson have already posted victories in 2010 and are very capable of doing the same here. Perry isn't really on form, and seems like a long shot to ever regain the top spot on the regular tour.
Others playing well entering this week that are in the field include Jason Day, KJ Choi, Rickie Fowler and Jeff Overton, all of whom are establishing themselves as top 20 players on tour for the 2010 season. Each should be making some money this week. Bubba Watson is here too, coming off his win in Connecticut. I'd be surprised if he repeats in his frost event after a huge, huge moment for him.
Most Talent
Stricker
Fowler
Choi
Z. Johnson
Clark
Course History
Perry
Stricker
Byrd
JP Hayes
K. Sutherland
Who's Hot?
B. Watson
J. Day
Overton
Fowler
Choi
Who's Not?
Stricker
Perry
Mediate
Duval
Love
My Picks
Fowler
J. Day
Choi
Overton
Clark
Stricker
Cheers,
TFAM
Steve Stricker is the headliner here and he's also the defending champion. While his form has been off since early in the year due to injury, I'd expect a rebound this week. If not, I can't see him being much of a factor until after the PGA.
The other favorites this week who have notched positive results on this track include Tim Clark (second and 18th in two apps.), Zach Johnson (second in 2009 to Stricker), Jonathan Byrd (a win and a second), and Kenny Perry, who has five top 10s in nine starts. Of those guys, Clark and Johnson have already posted victories in 2010 and are very capable of doing the same here. Perry isn't really on form, and seems like a long shot to ever regain the top spot on the regular tour.
Others playing well entering this week that are in the field include Jason Day, KJ Choi, Rickie Fowler and Jeff Overton, all of whom are establishing themselves as top 20 players on tour for the 2010 season. Each should be making some money this week. Bubba Watson is here too, coming off his win in Connecticut. I'd be surprised if he repeats in his frost event after a huge, huge moment for him.
Most Talent
Stricker
Fowler
Choi
Z. Johnson
Clark
Course History
Perry
Stricker
Byrd
JP Hayes
K. Sutherland
Who's Hot?
B. Watson
J. Day
Overton
Fowler
Choi
Who's Not?
Stricker
Perry
Mediate
Duval
Love
My Picks
Fowler
J. Day
Choi
Overton
Clark
Stricker
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, July 5, 2010
To Columbus and Back
By my count, four established and well hyped big leaguers had to endure being shipped off to AAA this season after horrid starts in the show. Matt LaPorta, Dexter Fowler, Alex Gordon and Chris Davis all came into 2010 with promise and playing time, and left humbled.
The similarities don't end there. All four hit almost immediately after being sent down (as we would expect they would) and started banging on the door of the big league club for another promotion. The two who have gotten that second chance, LaPorta and Fowler, are now making an impact in the fantasy world.
Let's begin with LaPorta. Once the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia deal, LaPorta failed to make an impact in a stint in Cleveland in 2009 and again in early 2010. After an 18 game vacation in Columbus saw him mash five homers and post a near 1.100 OPS however, he was recalled to play first for the Tribe after Russell "The Muscle" Branyan was shipped to Seattle. Since his recall, LaPorta has 10 hits and four jacks in just nine games for the Indians...and I wouldn't expect these numebrs to be a fluke. LaPorta was once thought of as a pure power hitter in the mold of a young...(insert right handed power hitter here....thinking)..Glen Davis? Not the RBI Baseball version either. The good one.
Fowler obviously isn't a power guy like LaPorta and he has more major league experience, but he suffered though a similar situation at the beginning of 2010. In his trip to the minors, Fowler also posted an OPS over 1.000 and hit .340 (though he stole just one base...but he really didn't need to work on that tool). Also like the new Glen Davis, Fowler has had a huge week back in the bigs, and coming into Monday the centerfielder had notched 10 hits in his last four games. That should be enough to keep his playing time up for now, and if he starts running again (he has one steal this week, eight on the year), his fantasy value will be better than ever.
It figures that Gordon and Davis can be helpful to fantasy squads as well upon their impending return. However, Davis has to crack a roster that is destined for a pennant race, and may not get the oppotunity for regular playing time one would need out of him. Gordon may be a different story. In fact, if the Royals hadn't had him on spin cycle for the last three years I'd be more confident he could contribute as well. The last rumor had them debating converting him to a lefty specialist out of the bullpen. Still, if/when Gordon gets the call, I'd be willing to take a chance. It's paid off with Fowler and LaPorta.
Cheers,
TFAM
The similarities don't end there. All four hit almost immediately after being sent down (as we would expect they would) and started banging on the door of the big league club for another promotion. The two who have gotten that second chance, LaPorta and Fowler, are now making an impact in the fantasy world.
Let's begin with LaPorta. Once the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia deal, LaPorta failed to make an impact in a stint in Cleveland in 2009 and again in early 2010. After an 18 game vacation in Columbus saw him mash five homers and post a near 1.100 OPS however, he was recalled to play first for the Tribe after Russell "The Muscle" Branyan was shipped to Seattle. Since his recall, LaPorta has 10 hits and four jacks in just nine games for the Indians...and I wouldn't expect these numebrs to be a fluke. LaPorta was once thought of as a pure power hitter in the mold of a young...(insert right handed power hitter here....thinking)..Glen Davis? Not the RBI Baseball version either. The good one.
Fowler obviously isn't a power guy like LaPorta and he has more major league experience, but he suffered though a similar situation at the beginning of 2010. In his trip to the minors, Fowler also posted an OPS over 1.000 and hit .340 (though he stole just one base...but he really didn't need to work on that tool). Also like the new Glen Davis, Fowler has had a huge week back in the bigs, and coming into Monday the centerfielder had notched 10 hits in his last four games. That should be enough to keep his playing time up for now, and if he starts running again (he has one steal this week, eight on the year), his fantasy value will be better than ever.
It figures that Gordon and Davis can be helpful to fantasy squads as well upon their impending return. However, Davis has to crack a roster that is destined for a pennant race, and may not get the oppotunity for regular playing time one would need out of him. Gordon may be a different story. In fact, if the Royals hadn't had him on spin cycle for the last three years I'd be more confident he could contribute as well. The last rumor had them debating converting him to a lefty specialist out of the bullpen. Still, if/when Gordon gets the call, I'd be willing to take a chance. It's paid off with Fowler and LaPorta.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Traveling Tales
Just finished up a five day three city baseball trip, that took me to Kansas City, St. Louis, and then back to Target Field for the Rays-Twins tilt on Saturday afternoon.
Here are a few observations, fantasy-wise, and not...
Got a free T-Shirt in Kansas City as they were giving them out to the first 20,000. Let's just say I didn't have to crash the gates at 5:00 to make sure I got one.
Beautiful stadium in Kansas City with the fountains at Kaufmann. Beats looking at the squad on the field.
Justin Upton appears to have contracted Chris Young's contagious apathy disorder. I've never seen two outfielders look so lethargic as they did Wednesday in St. Louis. Upton has unreal talent, I'm just starting to wonder if he's ever going to be that elite superstar. He'll put up numbers, but where is the leadership. I know, he's young...
Colby Rasmus took a series of terrible at bats while I was at Busch. He was fanning with regularity and popping up with runners on third with less than two outs...that kind of thing.
Matt Holliday is hitting it with authority to the opposite field, which is usually a great sign for hitters.
Albert Pujols is amazing in part because he makes consistently hard contact. You know who else does the same thing? Ricky Weeks.
I don't love him as a fantasy player, but it looks like Michael Cuddyer may be waking up a bit. He hit some balls hard yesterday...even his outs. Plus, third base eligibility helps a lot.
It looks like some balls can carry out of Target Field. Four homers yesterday by the Twins and Rays.
This is sad, because I feel like I've been doing everything short of attending Upton family reunions the last few years, but BJ Upton looks lost too. He takes horrific at bats, and is hitting in the low .220s. I could see Desmond Jennings getting a call soon. Wouldn't surprise me if BJ wasn't in Tampa next year. Crawford will be gone too.
Stunning stat of the day (non trip related). Marlon Byrd has one RBI since June 9. Keep in mind that he hits in the middle of the lineup most days, and has delivered seven multi-hit games during that stretch. The Cubs are just brutal. Johnny Cueto managed to pitch five innings against them yesterday and give up seven hits and five walks without allowing a run.
Happy fourth...cheers,
TFAM
Here are a few observations, fantasy-wise, and not...
Got a free T-Shirt in Kansas City as they were giving them out to the first 20,000. Let's just say I didn't have to crash the gates at 5:00 to make sure I got one.
Beautiful stadium in Kansas City with the fountains at Kaufmann. Beats looking at the squad on the field.
Justin Upton appears to have contracted Chris Young's contagious apathy disorder. I've never seen two outfielders look so lethargic as they did Wednesday in St. Louis. Upton has unreal talent, I'm just starting to wonder if he's ever going to be that elite superstar. He'll put up numbers, but where is the leadership. I know, he's young...
Colby Rasmus took a series of terrible at bats while I was at Busch. He was fanning with regularity and popping up with runners on third with less than two outs...that kind of thing.
Matt Holliday is hitting it with authority to the opposite field, which is usually a great sign for hitters.
Albert Pujols is amazing in part because he makes consistently hard contact. You know who else does the same thing? Ricky Weeks.
I don't love him as a fantasy player, but it looks like Michael Cuddyer may be waking up a bit. He hit some balls hard yesterday...even his outs. Plus, third base eligibility helps a lot.
It looks like some balls can carry out of Target Field. Four homers yesterday by the Twins and Rays.
This is sad, because I feel like I've been doing everything short of attending Upton family reunions the last few years, but BJ Upton looks lost too. He takes horrific at bats, and is hitting in the low .220s. I could see Desmond Jennings getting a call soon. Wouldn't surprise me if BJ wasn't in Tampa next year. Crawford will be gone too.
Stunning stat of the day (non trip related). Marlon Byrd has one RBI since June 9. Keep in mind that he hits in the middle of the lineup most days, and has delivered seven multi-hit games during that stretch. The Cubs are just brutal. Johnny Cueto managed to pitch five innings against them yesterday and give up seven hits and five walks without allowing a run.
Happy fourth...cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Rocky Road
Ok friends, trivia time. How many players in baseball topped both 20 HR and 10 SB in 2009?
Answer? 22
Of those 22, how many are of the scarce middle infield variety?
Answer? 6
Of those six, how many have two homers and eight hits in their last five games in 2010?
Answer? 1 -- His name? Clint Barmes
I actually didn't look up the other members of the sextet to see how they have done in their last five, but Barmes is starting to hit, and the playing time is there with the plague of injuries in the Rockies middle infield. I know, it's Clint Barmes, and we do have to take that into account. Still, with the dearth of quality shortstops and the rash of injuries at second base, he may be worth a peek.
Cheers,
TFAM
Answer? 22
Of those 22, how many are of the scarce middle infield variety?
Answer? 6
Of those six, how many have two homers and eight hits in their last five games in 2010?
Answer? 1 -- His name? Clint Barmes
I actually didn't look up the other members of the sextet to see how they have done in their last five, but Barmes is starting to hit, and the playing time is there with the plague of injuries in the Rockies middle infield. I know, it's Clint Barmes, and we do have to take that into account. Still, with the dearth of quality shortstops and the rash of injuries at second base, he may be worth a peek.
Cheers,
TFAM
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