Gee, I just love these thrilling events at courses where we have no history and household names such as Dean Wilson and Greg Chalmers are capturing the TV coverage on a Sunday afternoon. Exit Canadian Open, enter Greenbriar Classic!
The Old White Course at the Greenbriar Resort in White Sulpher Springs, West Virginia is the host this week, and it has plenty of history (built around the turn of the century), just not the recent PGA Tour history that would help us decipher the code this week for fantasy sticks.
The inaugural Greenbriar event features Jim Furyk as the top ranked golfer in the world, and he'll be on the short list of guys who should contend this week. The only other player in the top 25 in the WGR is Matt Kuchar, who has continued his breakout season with three top 10s in his last four Tour starts.
Other golfers in the field who are playing weel include last week's Euro winner (and former Tour winner) Richard Johnson, and the aforementioned Wilson, but neither has lit the world on fire in 2010. I like Ricky Barnes this week, who is steadily knocking on the victory door. Carl Petterson is here too off his win and blistery 60 last Saturday in Toronto. Jeff Overton and JB Holmes have also been playing some golf as of late, and Trevor Immelman is creeping back into the conversation with consecutive top 25s for the first time since 2008.
In non-Greenbriar news, good to see that AK is almost ready to tee it up again.
Most Talent
Furyk
Garcia
Kuchar
Immelman
Holmes?
Course History
None
Who's Hot?
Kuchar
C. Petterson
Overton
R. Johnson
de Jonge
Who's Not?
Garcia
Kelly
Leonard
JM Singh
Toms
My Picks
Barnes
Kuchar
Furyk
Overton
Immelman
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Trade Deadline Thoughts
I'm guessing getting Dan Haren on a resonable contract for the next 3 1/2 years for a pittance is a good signal that we have a buyer's market on our hands in 2010. Here's hoping your fantasy team makes out like the Angels at the deadline, not the D'Backs. Terrible deal.
Haren's status doesn't change much for fantasy. He may win more games, but the rest stays the same. He goes to the more difficult league, but the ballpark effects should negate that pretty well. I'm going to call it a very slight win for his value, but not enough to make me think of him in a different light.
Actually, most established players who are dealt at the deadline (Haren and Cliff Lee included) will not see much of a change in value. Stars are stars and they can play anywhere. For fantasy purposes, the players who probably fluctuate in value the most are relief pitchers. If you are in a league where saves are at a premium and all other relievers are worthless, you'll want to keep close tabs on the market. Could Octavio Dotel be dealt? Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan could gain value. What about Matt Capps? Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard anyone? What's going to happen with the Toronto bullpen? If you have the roster space now, it is a good idea to make speculative plays on some of these guys. What's the worst thing that could happen, you drop them in a week? If you don't have the roster space, this week is a good week to keep your ear to the door and be ready to act quickly when a deal is made.
Cheers,
TFAM
Haren's status doesn't change much for fantasy. He may win more games, but the rest stays the same. He goes to the more difficult league, but the ballpark effects should negate that pretty well. I'm going to call it a very slight win for his value, but not enough to make me think of him in a different light.
Actually, most established players who are dealt at the deadline (Haren and Cliff Lee included) will not see much of a change in value. Stars are stars and they can play anywhere. For fantasy purposes, the players who probably fluctuate in value the most are relief pitchers. If you are in a league where saves are at a premium and all other relievers are worthless, you'll want to keep close tabs on the market. Could Octavio Dotel be dealt? Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan could gain value. What about Matt Capps? Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard anyone? What's going to happen with the Toronto bullpen? If you have the roster space now, it is a good idea to make speculative plays on some of these guys. What's the worst thing that could happen, you drop them in a week? If you don't have the roster space, this week is a good week to keep your ear to the door and be ready to act quickly when a deal is made.
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, July 23, 2010
Greene means go
I have to say, much controversy has arisen from me placing Shonn Greene at the back of a 12 team first round last week. Now that I'm in New York, and awaiting the arrival of the passionate Jet fan contingent to the beach, I should probably explain.
It wasn't lost on me that the Jets handed the keys to the car to Greene, not Thomas Jones, when the season was on the line last January. Shonn plowed through the Bengals and Chargers for 263 yards and two scores on just 44 carries in the team's two playoff victories prior to being slowed by the Colts. With Jones being shown the door in the offseason, Greene was firmly in line to be a 1500 yard, 12-15 TD guy in 2010 on the Jets rush happy offense (Don't think, btw, that changes even with Santonio's arrival). Those numbers argue Greene actually could be ranked higher, and may just have been number three overall, if the Jets didn't sign LaDainian Tomlinson. You think he can't get those 1500/15 numbers? His own team thought he was better than Jones in the playoffs, and TJ had himself put up over 1400 and 14 TDs already that year.
The real question here is the Tomlinson effect. Okay, that's not a question, but you get it. How about this? How much will LT's arrival impact Greene's fantasy value? To me, that is one of the central fantasy football questions of the season. We can safely assume that the Jets didn't bring in one of the all time greats to be this guy. He's going to play. I'm going to grant him 10-12 touches a game, which is fine, and does little to harm Greene's value. The problem is the goal line. With 138 rushing touchdowns to his credit, LT is one of the most prolific scorers in NFL (and fantasy) history. If he steals those goal line carries, Greene's value takes an obvious hit.
So, be mindful of this situation in the weeks leading up to your draft. My ranking of Greene was actually a cop out, he isn't going to be the 11th or 12th best player heading into the season. If he gets goal line touches, he's top five, if not, he's in the second round.
Cheers,
TFAM
It wasn't lost on me that the Jets handed the keys to the car to Greene, not Thomas Jones, when the season was on the line last January. Shonn plowed through the Bengals and Chargers for 263 yards and two scores on just 44 carries in the team's two playoff victories prior to being slowed by the Colts. With Jones being shown the door in the offseason, Greene was firmly in line to be a 1500 yard, 12-15 TD guy in 2010 on the Jets rush happy offense (Don't think, btw, that changes even with Santonio's arrival). Those numbers argue Greene actually could be ranked higher, and may just have been number three overall, if the Jets didn't sign LaDainian Tomlinson. You think he can't get those 1500/15 numbers? His own team thought he was better than Jones in the playoffs, and TJ had himself put up over 1400 and 14 TDs already that year.
The real question here is the Tomlinson effect. Okay, that's not a question, but you get it. How about this? How much will LT's arrival impact Greene's fantasy value? To me, that is one of the central fantasy football questions of the season. We can safely assume that the Jets didn't bring in one of the all time greats to be this guy. He's going to play. I'm going to grant him 10-12 touches a game, which is fine, and does little to harm Greene's value. The problem is the goal line. With 138 rushing touchdowns to his credit, LT is one of the most prolific scorers in NFL (and fantasy) history. If he steals those goal line carries, Greene's value takes an obvious hit.
So, be mindful of this situation in the weeks leading up to your draft. My ranking of Greene was actually a cop out, he isn't going to be the 11th or 12th best player heading into the season. If he gets goal line touches, he's top five, if not, he's in the second round.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Canadian Open
Vacation. I'm on it, and I'm traveling...so, I can't write until Thursday.
Here is what you need to know about the Canadian Open. Past results are meaningless, because the St. George's venue hasn't hosted the event since our parents were doing bomb scare drills in school. Also, just because it's in Canada doesn't mean you should pick Mike Weir. He stinks. Here is a link to information about this week's field. I like Sean O'Hair, he's been playing very well as of late. I worry Paul Casey is going to suffer from a slight - I was in contention at a major last weekend and let some random guy who we'll never hear from again trounce me - hangover.
Back at it Thursday.
Cheers,
TFAM
Here is what you need to know about the Canadian Open. Past results are meaningless, because the St. George's venue hasn't hosted the event since our parents were doing bomb scare drills in school. Also, just because it's in Canada doesn't mean you should pick Mike Weir. He stinks. Here is a link to information about this week's field. I like Sean O'Hair, he's been playing very well as of late. I worry Paul Casey is going to suffer from a slight - I was in contention at a major last weekend and let some random guy who we'll never hear from again trounce me - hangover.
Back at it Thursday.
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, July 16, 2010
The First Round
With many people starting to talk drafts dates, draft order and even trades in keeper leagues, it is time to start taking fantasy football a little more seroiusly around here. Today, I'm beginning my research. I'll be going through everything position by position in plenty of time for all of your drafts. I'll look at sleepers and busts, and I'll talk strategy and even debate some league rules as we move into the beginning of training camp season. Today though? Let's start with the mid-July top 12 overall players, and for today, we'll go with a one quarterback format.
To me, the first round requires one thing. A sure thing. No risk here, you need production or you aren't going anywhere. No reaches here. Wait a minute, EVERY pick after pick five is a specualtion play. Fantasy football, ladies and gentlemen!
1. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
I outlined my concerns about Adrian Peterson here. If CJ gets goal line touches like he did last year (and LenDale isn't even in the picture now), he's the clear choice.
2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
I'm concerned, but I'm not THAT concerned.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
I like that he's an every down guy, and I like that he's a goal line guy. He may have lost a step, but you have to like his number of opportunities.
4. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
If I knew Rice would get goal line looks he'd be number two on the list. McGahee just vultured him so many times last year. Great back though.
5. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
He is the next sure thing, and the clear number one WR with Fitzgerald losing Kurt Warner. By the way, the sure thing dropoff begins now. We get a little risky here, and number 6 is the worst pick in the draft.
6. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
I'm not as high on Gore as many, but still have him here. Why? Because it's a five player draft. There isn't much separating 6 from 20 in my book and I'd rather pick three times between 12 and 20 than have picks six and seven. Gore is an every down back, period.
7. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
I've got him even with Gore, I just think the Niners score more points. Similar skill sets, same opportunity, similar injury risk.
8. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
I think he breaks out this year. Big time QB, a chance at a big play back, a tight end, Burleson on the other side. If he stays healthy he finishes in the top two at WR.
9. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
I like a lot of quarterbacks at the lower levels this year, so a first rounder isn't really necessary, but the running backs all have questions, so, talent wins out. In a two QB league, he'd be number five on the board.
10. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
Brees has been doing it longer and has a slightly better playoff schedule, but they are essentailly the same for fantasy purposes.
11. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
I like Greene, a lot. Then the Jets bring in LT and I don't like him as much. He deserves his own posting (and he'll get it soon), but he deserves this spot.
12. Ryan Matthews, RB, Chargers
I talked about Matthews earlier this summer. As long as Norv is true to his word, and he gets goal line touches, Matthews will earn this spot.
Cheers,
TFAM
To me, the first round requires one thing. A sure thing. No risk here, you need production or you aren't going anywhere. No reaches here. Wait a minute, EVERY pick after pick five is a specualtion play. Fantasy football, ladies and gentlemen!
1. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
I outlined my concerns about Adrian Peterson here. If CJ gets goal line touches like he did last year (and LenDale isn't even in the picture now), he's the clear choice.
2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
I'm concerned, but I'm not THAT concerned.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
I like that he's an every down guy, and I like that he's a goal line guy. He may have lost a step, but you have to like his number of opportunities.
4. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
If I knew Rice would get goal line looks he'd be number two on the list. McGahee just vultured him so many times last year. Great back though.
5. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
He is the next sure thing, and the clear number one WR with Fitzgerald losing Kurt Warner. By the way, the sure thing dropoff begins now. We get a little risky here, and number 6 is the worst pick in the draft.
6. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
I'm not as high on Gore as many, but still have him here. Why? Because it's a five player draft. There isn't much separating 6 from 20 in my book and I'd rather pick three times between 12 and 20 than have picks six and seven. Gore is an every down back, period.
7. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
I've got him even with Gore, I just think the Niners score more points. Similar skill sets, same opportunity, similar injury risk.
8. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
I think he breaks out this year. Big time QB, a chance at a big play back, a tight end, Burleson on the other side. If he stays healthy he finishes in the top two at WR.
9. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
I like a lot of quarterbacks at the lower levels this year, so a first rounder isn't really necessary, but the running backs all have questions, so, talent wins out. In a two QB league, he'd be number five on the board.
10. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
Brees has been doing it longer and has a slightly better playoff schedule, but they are essentailly the same for fantasy purposes.
11. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
I like Greene, a lot. Then the Jets bring in LT and I don't like him as much. He deserves his own posting (and he'll get it soon), but he deserves this spot.
12. Ryan Matthews, RB, Chargers
I talked about Matthews earlier this summer. As long as Norv is true to his word, and he gets goal line touches, Matthews will earn this spot.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
The (British) Open Championship
No matter what we call it, the Open Championship is the best golf tournament played outside of Augusta in the world on a yearly basis. Considering Augusta is now seemingly ruled by just two men, it actually may be the best golf tournament to watch if you like a little suspense (and potentially wild weather) with your haggis and clootie dumplings.
This year's event is held at the St. Andrews Old Course, which is widely reknowned as the birthplace of golf. In recent times its also been viewed as the epicenter of Tiger Woods' domain (was looking for the name of a dwelling for a tiger....lair? den?).
Woods has won the last two Opens at St. Andrews by a combined 13 strokes, and he has to be the favorite for that reason alone, despite his mortal play in the post Elin era. Woods is successful at the Old Course for three reasons. One, he's the best player in the world. Two, the fairways roll forever, so he can keep the driver in the bag and still roll it out there over 300 yards, and three, wayward drives aren't quite as penal on the other side if the pond.
After Woods, I like Phil as the second choice. I know he has a terrible record in this event, but I believe Mickelson has morphed into a player who is going to contend at pretty much every major contested. If you forget his record at the British you can make a good case that the course sets up well for his game too. Plus, there is a rule when it comes to picking guys for majors. Tiger and Phil are always the first two choices. My buddy Steve learned this the hard way at Augusta when he took Els before Phil in a draft. You just don't make that mistake, and it cost Steve $20.
So, who else has a fighting chance here? Ernie has 12 top tens (and a win) in 18 tries at the Open, which is a stunning record. He should be there considering his 2010 form. Westwood has to be considered in every major these days, though the calf injury is a concern. Retief, Sergio and Furyk also all have at least five top 10s in this event, and don't forget two time champ Paddy Harrington, who is more than capable. All but Sergio come in playing well enough to contend.
There are a host of others who obviously can put it together this week too. Justin Rose is the hottest player in the world. Ryan Moore and Sean O'Hair are solid American options, both of which are in the midst of their best play of the year on the PGA Tour. Eduardo Molinari won the Scottish Open last week, and joins US Open champ Graeme McDowell, Luke Donald and Ian Poulter (who likes his chance this week) as Brits with a good chance. Rory McIlroy is playing well enough too.
Four names for deeper sleepers? Jason Day, Jeff Overton, Rhys Davies, and Ryo Ishikawa. All are playing well coming into Thursday. I can't wait.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Stricker
Els
Course History
Woods
Els
Singh
Goosen
Garcia
Who's Hot?
Rose
Stricker
Moore
E. Molinari
McDowell
Who's Not?
Garcia
Woods
Glover
Weir
Cabrera
My Picks
Woods
Mickelson
Els
Poulter
McIlroy
O'Hair
Moore
Harrington
Rose
Ishikawa
Cheers,
TFAM
This year's event is held at the St. Andrews Old Course, which is widely reknowned as the birthplace of golf. In recent times its also been viewed as the epicenter of Tiger Woods' domain (was looking for the name of a dwelling for a tiger....lair? den?).
Woods has won the last two Opens at St. Andrews by a combined 13 strokes, and he has to be the favorite for that reason alone, despite his mortal play in the post Elin era. Woods is successful at the Old Course for three reasons. One, he's the best player in the world. Two, the fairways roll forever, so he can keep the driver in the bag and still roll it out there over 300 yards, and three, wayward drives aren't quite as penal on the other side if the pond.
After Woods, I like Phil as the second choice. I know he has a terrible record in this event, but I believe Mickelson has morphed into a player who is going to contend at pretty much every major contested. If you forget his record at the British you can make a good case that the course sets up well for his game too. Plus, there is a rule when it comes to picking guys for majors. Tiger and Phil are always the first two choices. My buddy Steve learned this the hard way at Augusta when he took Els before Phil in a draft. You just don't make that mistake, and it cost Steve $20.
So, who else has a fighting chance here? Ernie has 12 top tens (and a win) in 18 tries at the Open, which is a stunning record. He should be there considering his 2010 form. Westwood has to be considered in every major these days, though the calf injury is a concern. Retief, Sergio and Furyk also all have at least five top 10s in this event, and don't forget two time champ Paddy Harrington, who is more than capable. All but Sergio come in playing well enough to contend.
There are a host of others who obviously can put it together this week too. Justin Rose is the hottest player in the world. Ryan Moore and Sean O'Hair are solid American options, both of which are in the midst of their best play of the year on the PGA Tour. Eduardo Molinari won the Scottish Open last week, and joins US Open champ Graeme McDowell, Luke Donald and Ian Poulter (who likes his chance this week) as Brits with a good chance. Rory McIlroy is playing well enough too.
Four names for deeper sleepers? Jason Day, Jeff Overton, Rhys Davies, and Ryo Ishikawa. All are playing well coming into Thursday. I can't wait.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Stricker
Els
Course History
Woods
Els
Singh
Goosen
Garcia
Who's Hot?
Rose
Stricker
Moore
E. Molinari
McDowell
Who's Not?
Garcia
Woods
Glover
Weir
Cabrera
My Picks
Woods
Mickelson
Els
Poulter
McIlroy
O'Hair
Moore
Harrington
Rose
Ishikawa
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, July 10, 2010
MarKet MaDnESS
Cliff Lee's move to Texas yesterday got me thinking, which players could be on the move in my (and your) fantasy leagues that can provide a boost for your team down the stretch. Today, I'm brining you buy low guys who may be had for cheap, but who are likely to help champiuonship teams down the stretch.
Cliff Lee, SP, Rangers
I know he's moving from heaven to hell as far as ballparks go for starters, but if the Lee owner in your league wants to sell, I'd buy. Elite SPs carry their value no matter the park, as Roy Halladay and Ubaldo Jimenez have shown us this year.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs
I've been trying to buy low on A-Ram all year and have been unsuccessful, mainly due to an owner's apathy in one league, but I still think there is promise here. Ramirez has struggled with injury but is just a season removed from being a top 40 overall player and he has three homers and nine hits in his last four games.
Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros
Berkman is showing he still has some pop in his bat with homers in his last four games. Remember, he missed significant time this spring and could just be getting his legs.
Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves
He has mixed in a few clunkers lately, but I think he'll be energized by a pennant race and will be a dominant SP the rest of the way. Hanson is over 9 K/9 and that ERA is inflated due to two horrendous starts. He has elite stuff.
I'd also like to mention that I think Longoria, Braun, Mauer, Lincecum, Markakis, Greinke, Garza, and Jeter will all be great options in the second half despite underperforming thus far (some worse than others). If you can buy these guys for 75 cents on the dollar, you should be rewarded with usual production from here on out.
Cheers,
TFAM
Cliff Lee, SP, Rangers
I know he's moving from heaven to hell as far as ballparks go for starters, but if the Lee owner in your league wants to sell, I'd buy. Elite SPs carry their value no matter the park, as Roy Halladay and Ubaldo Jimenez have shown us this year.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs
I've been trying to buy low on A-Ram all year and have been unsuccessful, mainly due to an owner's apathy in one league, but I still think there is promise here. Ramirez has struggled with injury but is just a season removed from being a top 40 overall player and he has three homers and nine hits in his last four games.
Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros
Berkman is showing he still has some pop in his bat with homers in his last four games. Remember, he missed significant time this spring and could just be getting his legs.
Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves
He has mixed in a few clunkers lately, but I think he'll be energized by a pennant race and will be a dominant SP the rest of the way. Hanson is over 9 K/9 and that ERA is inflated due to two horrendous starts. He has elite stuff.
I'd also like to mention that I think Longoria, Braun, Mauer, Lincecum, Markakis, Greinke, Garza, and Jeter will all be great options in the second half despite underperforming thus far (some worse than others). If you can buy these guys for 75 cents on the dollar, you should be rewarded with usual production from here on out.
Cheers,
TFAM
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