You can have your shortstops. I'll mine for gold in the outfield, which along with starting pitching, is where fantasy leagues are won and lost. There are just so many high upside plays in the OF that you can get for inexpensive prices on draft day. Just look at my top 10, where the youth stands out. Your job (and mine) will be to find the next wave of young outfielders that are going to be sitting atop these rankings three years from now, and lock them in at great values. Above all positions, outfield has the depth to comb through this list, find the guys that you like, and only take those guys. If you're in a auction, this works perfectly. In a draft, do NOT, get stuck with an outfielder you don't want just because he is next on the cheat sheet. Go to a different position, or reach for upside. Why? I can find a Franklin Gutierrez on the wire if my Cameron Maybin upside play doesn't pan out. I won't get another chance to exploit the upside in a guy like Bruce, Rasmus or McCutchen once the season starts if I pass on them for Shane Victorino.
1. R. Braun -- Guaranteed producer in five cats.
2. M. Kemp -- Closing the gap, 30-30 in the cards.
3. M. Holliday -- St. Louis numbers are reason to believe.
4. J. Upton -- Could be number one next year. More steals than his 20 in '09.
5. C. Crawford -- Highest I can go here, but a safe play.
6. G. Sizemore -- Batting average needs to rise for him to do the same.
7. C. Granderson -- Love him in pinstripes. 30 HR, 15 SB is the floor, batting average will go up. However, important to note that the superstar dropoff begins here. Big difference in value between top six and 7-30. If you believe in tiers, grab one top six guy and figure out who you like in the 7-30 range.
8. J. Ellsbury -- Speed sans power, I can find guys like that outside of top 25.
9. B. Upton -- Speed with power, I'm bullish on BJ in 2010...20-40. Lots of questions, but BJ is one of two guys most likely to make the leap into the top tier in 2011. McCutchen is the other.
10. I. Suzuki -- Not a fan, this may still be too high for batting average player.
11. A. Lind -- Can he repeat the power? I say .280-30.
12. J. Bay -- Which is about what Bay gives you.
13. S. Choo -- .300-20-20 is very valuable.
14. M. Ramirez -- In this range his questions may not be worth the gamble. Lots of good OFs.
15. A. Dunn -- Guaranteed power. 1B eligible as well.
16. A. McCutchen -- I'm out on a limb, but 15-40 sounds very doable. How is that different from Crawford?
17. N. Markakis -- Still waiting for the power.
18. C. Lee -- Lack of upside as an OF makes me pass on him.
19. C. Quentin -- Health is the only question.
20. J. Werth -- The Mark Reynolds of OF. .268, 36 HR, 20 SB in '09. Tough to repeat that.
21. N. Cruz -- Slightly worse stats than Werth, but proof that we can believe in the hype, sometimes.
22. A. Ethier -- I'm not seeing why everyone is so excited about him.
23. B. Abreu -- Safe play, still stole 30 in '09.
24. J. Bruce -- I think 30 HR is coming, easily.
25. A. Jones -- Upside play, but may be a little too hyped and expensive considering who is still available.
26. T. Hunter -- Safe .280-25-15.
27. H. Pence -- Star has fallen a bit, which is exactly the time I like to pounce.
28. C. Beltran -- Injuries could actually make him a big sleeper.
29. J. Hamilton -- Seems too low, but I'd rather draft everyone above him.
30. R. Ibanez -- Slowed in the second half, as 22 of 34 HR came before break.
31. A. Soriano -- Couldn't be more afraid to roster Fons. Not enough SBs anymore.
32. C. Gonzalez -- Told you I like youth.
32.5. S. Victorino -- Forgot about him when I did the list the other day.
33. M. Bourn -- 60 SB are a game changer this low.
34. J. Borbon -- Scintillating speed potential, remeber what I said about Ellsbury?
35. A. Rios -- The ultimate wild card. Could rebound big with a .280-20-30, Could be droppable, as he was in '09. Change to South Side launching pad helps restore faith.
36. D. Fowler -- I thought he was going to steal 80 after that five steal game last April, finished with 27. Oops.
37. J. Damon -- Detroit will sap his power. Under 20 HR is a lock.
38. D. Span -- Speed remains abundant. Span is a very safe, low risk play.
39. J. Pierre -- Appears to have 450 ABs in his future. That means 40+ SBs and a .300 AVG.
40. N. Morgan -- I'm pummleing a dead horse right now regarding speed in the OF.
41. T. Snider -- Forgotten man, but top 10 prospect in the game just one year ago. Light tower power. Had to mix that phrase in once.
42. M. Cuddyer -- I'm not going to bet on 30 HR again, and I watch him everyday. Pass.
43. C. Coghlan -- NL ROY has more power and speed to come.
44. C. Rasmus -- Last call on the clearance sale.
45. N. Reimold -- Give him 500 ABs, he'll hit 25 HR with 15 SB.
46. D. Stubbs -- I'd rather take Stubbs late than Crawford early. Showed up big in Sept. '09.
47. J. Kubel -- Worried about the ABs with Thome in town. Love the bat.
48. D. Young -- How long must we wait Delmon?
49. C. Maybin -- Speed/power upside play.
50. L. Milledge -- Combined with Maybin, I wasted $17 in an auction on these do upside bums....and may just do it again. I won the league.
51. F. Gutierrez -- Quiet 18 HR, 16 SB in '09.
52. N. McLouth -- No thanks.
53. V. Wells -- Makes more in millions than he is worth in dollars.
54. N. Swisher -- Better in an OBP league.
55. R. Davis -- Stole 41 in OAK in '09. Just not guaranteed PT in my mind.
56. M. Cameron -- Safe 20 HR. Speed is in decline though, don't count on it.
57. M. Bradley -- Only so you don't forget about him. Can be very productive.
58. M. Joyce -- No one is talking about Joyce, but a 20-15 season is valuable, and would keep Desmond Jennings in Durham.
59. M. LaPorta -- Was hyped player when traded for CC. How much PT with Branyan around is the question.
60. C. B. Young -- Tantalizinig, yet, I saw him in person and let me tell you he has worse body language than Quasimodo.
61. C. Gomez -- Should get a big chance and is moving to the NL. Could surprise.
62. JD Drew -- If we could combine his stats with...
63. J. Hermida -- ...Hermida's, we'd be onto something big.
64. J. Heyward -- The next big thing. Bump him up to 48 if he starts in Atlanta.
65. C. Hart -- Wouldn't surprise me if he wore sungalsses in AAA in 2010. Can't hit.
66. K. Blanks -- Has the power, but ballpark minimizes his upside.
67. G. Jones -- You could do worse with a flier.
68. M. DeRosa -- Like taking Mark DeRosa, for example.
69. E. Dukes -- I rate him low because he gets punished for teasing.
70. B. Hawpe -- Broken record, I'd rather gamble on upside.
No, I didn't forget about Willingham, Ludwick, Magglio, Brett Gardner and a host of others. I just can find guys like that anytime I want to, like I explained above. As far as prospects go, they are deep in the OF, with Heyward leading the way. Not far behind are Jennings, who is a burner, but is currently blocked in Tampa, and Mike Stanton who is a five tool beast, but is young and will start in AA. Others to watch include Dominic Brown (PHI) and Michael Taylor (OAK). Brown is further away, but Taylor's ballpark is a concern. They are both possible five cat contributors. Michael Brantley in Cleveland and Austin Jackson in Detroit will be involved in 2010 and are stolen base guys. Jackson would be a nice flier if he is projected to start. Dustin Ackley was drafted just last year but is being touted as a future batting champ in Seattle and could see Safeco in 2010. Long term dynasty leaguers should be intrigued by Ryan Westmoreland of the Red Sox and Aaron Hicks of the Twins, but neither of those guys will be up in 2010.
Cheers,
TFAM
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