You know what the best part of the SHO will be this week? Not having to listen to Arnold Palmer speak or watching his mediocre grandson play mediocre golf. Is that too harsh? Am I the only one who could care less about Sam Saunders? I do look forward to Spazner Levin throwing a few clubs though. I love watching that guy, especially if I've got money on Martin Laird.
The TOUR heads to Houston this week, where Anthony Kim is thd defending champ. A quick check of his results since his win here a year ago tell us to stay very clear of AK. The top ranked players in the field are Westwood (two top 11s in the last two years), Mickelson (zero top 20s in six starts), Kuchar, and Stricker. Hunter Mahan is interesting here too. It seems like he is close and its a matter of time before he's in the winnner's circle again. Mahan has two MCs and two top 10s here in the last four years.
Players not on their game include Harrington, Els and Goosen, all of which may have more value in name than anything these days. There are at least 10 guys I'd draft before either this week.
Of the lesser knowns, Steve Marino is playing well and has competed well on this course. DJ Trahan is also going to be a trendy sleeper choice. Francesco Molinari is here too, and is a top 20 player in the world. He's certainly worth a look in the one and done.
Deep sleepers? James Driscoll and Johnson Wagner. Driscoll tied for 14th last year and Wagner won in 2008 after a ninth in '07. Nice value there. Wagner also won in Cancun in February.
Most Talent
Mickelson
Westwood
Stricker
Kuchar
Mahan
Course History
Kim
Couples
Holmes
Wagner
Stricker
Who's Hot?
Marino
Kuchar
Leishman
De Jonge
Baddeley
Who's Not?
Kim
Mickelson
Els
Villegas
Glover
My Picks
Mahan
Wagner
Westwood
Molinari
Marino
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Monday, March 21, 2011
Ranking the outfielders
Had my first of two auctions over the weekend. It's a dynasty auction (we converted from a keeper league), so you get to keep your guys forever. Obviously, lots on the line, and considering the fact I have just one Final Four team left, it's a good thing I had something to do.
My team? Weiters, Pujols, Beckham, Longoria, Brignac, Laporta and S. Rodriguez in the infield. J. Upton, Snider, Brantley, Borbon, Willingham and JD Drew in an admittedly weak outfield. The starters are Greinke, Verlander, Holland, W. Davis, E. Santana and Porcello and the relievers are Broxton, Putz and C. Zambrano.
I'm very reliant on youth, and could struggle in speed and saves, but having a youthful core anchored by Pujols long term seems okay to me.
Now, you need help in the outfield. To me, outfield and starting pitching is where you'll find most of the sleepers in your fantasy draft. Usually, you look toward the youth, and you can steal a few guys ready to break out. I called McCutchen last year, and I swung and missed again on BJ Upton (much like he did himself all season long).
1. R. Braun -- I think he's the surest thing of the lot. Bounceback in order.
2. C. Gonzalez -- No question he is for real, and a threat to take over number one overall in two years.
3. C. Crawford -- Tough to rank. Monster should help, I bet steals go down in Boston.
4. J. Upton -- He's a great bet to break out.
5. J. Hamilton -- Better, but more injury prone, than Upton.
6. A. McCutchen -- I'd just rathyer have him than the next tier. Still upside.
7. M. Holliday -- Real safe bet to help across the board.
8. M. Kemp -- I think he can bounceback but likely won;t pay to find out.
9. S. Choo -- Like Holliday, safe stats.
10. N. Cruz -- Last of the real high upside guys.
11. B. Upton -- Which is why I put him here. Could leap, likely won't. Still want him. Sigh.
12. H. Pence -- Quietly has 75 HR and 41 SB over last three seasons. Huge drop off to him from top tier though.
13. J. Bruce -- I can't understand why people think Heyward is better...in 2011.
14. J. Ellsbury -- Really hard to rank pure speed, but I think there is a slight dropoff to...
15. A. Rios -- Great first half, awful second. Better than the reverse.
16. I. Suzuki -- I guess, but no thanks.
17. J. Heyward
18. J. Werth -- Probably a bargain, but be wary of ballpark, contract and lineup change.
19. M. Stanton -- He could really disappoint, and I love youth. Just really young.
20. C. Rasmus -- Not much of a leap to .280-30-20.
21. A. Ethier -- Never much of a fan.
22. S. Victorino -- Flyin' Hawaiian keeps producing.
23. C. Granderson -- Improvement against lefties have me optimistic again.
24. D. Young -- Finally.
25. C. Young -- Ditto.
26. N. Markakis -- Is there really a 20 HR cap?
27. Adam Jones -- Betting on the come.
28. C. Quentin -- He can get back to 30+ HR and he'll come cheaper than most that can.
29. C. Hart -- I picked him up last year, Not paying for career two month stretch.
30. D. Stubbs -- Stats look good, prospect guys are baffled. I trust prospect guys.
31. J. Pierre
32. M. Bourn
33. B. Gardner -- Put these three here or further down, but they go in that order.
34. A. Pagan -- Less speed, more pop, less of a guarantee,
35. T. Hunter -- Aging Angels veterans,
36. V. Wells -- will not be occupying,
37. B. Abreu -- a spot in my outfield.
38. T. Snider -- Nice sleeper power prospect. I was a year early on him last year.
39. C. Lee -- Really looking old.
40. N. Swisher
There are really about 80 draftable OFs, and I'm not listing them all, but here are the guys that didn't make the list that I find intriguing at the right price.
Manny
Soriano
Kubel
Rayburn
Coghlan
Borbon
Tabata
Maybin
Crisp
Joyce
Morrison
Willingham
Brantley
Brown
Jennings
Gordon
L. Cain
As you can see, lots of potential cheap speed options, which is why I'd shy away from the expensive one cat types. Lots of youthful upside too in guys like Jennings, Morrison and Dom Brown.
Keep in mind Zobrist, S. Rodriguez, Bautista, and Huff qualify, but I didn't rank them due to more value at their other positions (maybe not Huff, I guess). Prospects other than Jennings and Brown include the two best in the game -- Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, though neither will make the bigs in 2011.
Cheers,
TFAM
My team? Weiters, Pujols, Beckham, Longoria, Brignac, Laporta and S. Rodriguez in the infield. J. Upton, Snider, Brantley, Borbon, Willingham and JD Drew in an admittedly weak outfield. The starters are Greinke, Verlander, Holland, W. Davis, E. Santana and Porcello and the relievers are Broxton, Putz and C. Zambrano.
I'm very reliant on youth, and could struggle in speed and saves, but having a youthful core anchored by Pujols long term seems okay to me.
Now, you need help in the outfield. To me, outfield and starting pitching is where you'll find most of the sleepers in your fantasy draft. Usually, you look toward the youth, and you can steal a few guys ready to break out. I called McCutchen last year, and I swung and missed again on BJ Upton (much like he did himself all season long).
1. R. Braun -- I think he's the surest thing of the lot. Bounceback in order.
2. C. Gonzalez -- No question he is for real, and a threat to take over number one overall in two years.
3. C. Crawford -- Tough to rank. Monster should help, I bet steals go down in Boston.
4. J. Upton -- He's a great bet to break out.
5. J. Hamilton -- Better, but more injury prone, than Upton.
6. A. McCutchen -- I'd just rathyer have him than the next tier. Still upside.
7. M. Holliday -- Real safe bet to help across the board.
8. M. Kemp -- I think he can bounceback but likely won;t pay to find out.
9. S. Choo -- Like Holliday, safe stats.
10. N. Cruz -- Last of the real high upside guys.
11. B. Upton -- Which is why I put him here. Could leap, likely won't. Still want him. Sigh.
12. H. Pence -- Quietly has 75 HR and 41 SB over last three seasons. Huge drop off to him from top tier though.
13. J. Bruce -- I can't understand why people think Heyward is better...in 2011.
14. J. Ellsbury -- Really hard to rank pure speed, but I think there is a slight dropoff to...
15. A. Rios -- Great first half, awful second. Better than the reverse.
16. I. Suzuki -- I guess, but no thanks.
17. J. Heyward
18. J. Werth -- Probably a bargain, but be wary of ballpark, contract and lineup change.
19. M. Stanton -- He could really disappoint, and I love youth. Just really young.
20. C. Rasmus -- Not much of a leap to .280-30-20.
21. A. Ethier -- Never much of a fan.
22. S. Victorino -- Flyin' Hawaiian keeps producing.
23. C. Granderson -- Improvement against lefties have me optimistic again.
24. D. Young -- Finally.
25. C. Young -- Ditto.
26. N. Markakis -- Is there really a 20 HR cap?
27. Adam Jones -- Betting on the come.
28. C. Quentin -- He can get back to 30+ HR and he'll come cheaper than most that can.
29. C. Hart -- I picked him up last year, Not paying for career two month stretch.
30. D. Stubbs -- Stats look good, prospect guys are baffled. I trust prospect guys.
31. J. Pierre
32. M. Bourn
33. B. Gardner -- Put these three here or further down, but they go in that order.
34. A. Pagan -- Less speed, more pop, less of a guarantee,
35. T. Hunter -- Aging Angels veterans,
36. V. Wells -- will not be occupying,
37. B. Abreu -- a spot in my outfield.
38. T. Snider -- Nice sleeper power prospect. I was a year early on him last year.
39. C. Lee -- Really looking old.
40. N. Swisher
There are really about 80 draftable OFs, and I'm not listing them all, but here are the guys that didn't make the list that I find intriguing at the right price.
Manny
Soriano
Kubel
Rayburn
Coghlan
Borbon
Tabata
Maybin
Crisp
Joyce
Morrison
Willingham
Brantley
Brown
Jennings
Gordon
L. Cain
As you can see, lots of potential cheap speed options, which is why I'd shy away from the expensive one cat types. Lots of youthful upside too in guys like Jennings, Morrison and Dom Brown.
Keep in mind Zobrist, S. Rodriguez, Bautista, and Huff qualify, but I didn't rank them due to more value at their other positions (maybe not Huff, I guess). Prospects other than Jennings and Brown include the two best in the game -- Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, though neither will make the bigs in 2011.
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Ranking the shortstops
Usually, outside of catcher in a two backstop league, shortstop is the weakest position in the draft. For me, that normally means I'm weak at short, because you know I don't overpay for the scarcity thing. In my two leagues (In which I have three firsts and a second in the last two seasons), I've gone both ways. In one, I've employed Hanley Ramirez for the last two seasons...the other relied mostly on Orlando Cabrera. One player does not a team make, and I can see myself not overpaying for mediocre stats at a scarce position again this year.
1. H. Ramirez -- Though it should be noted I see his decline in fantasy value as real as he is less inclined to steal.
2. T. Tulowitzki -- If he figures out April and May he's the NL MVP and a huge fantasy factor.
3. J. Reyes -- The risk isn't worth a 40 SB reward. He needs 60 to make it worthwhile and he isn't doing that, as much as I like him.
4. J. Rollins -- I guess I think his HR/SB total bests Jeter's BA.
5. S. Drew -- I know he is perenially disappointing, but I'm optimistic. He's 27, and that used to mean something.
6. D. Jeter -- Not seeing a huge bounceback.
7. A. Ramirez -- .270-15-15 sounds like stats I won't pay for.
8. E. Andrus -- SBs are worth more at positions where power is absent.
9. S. Castro -- BA regression candidate. Growing pains likely, but hang on in keeper leagues for future.
10. R. Furcal -- Health keeps him here. He's at least eight if he plays 150.
11. R. Brignac -- The bottom fell out here. All the rest of the guys are $1 for me. Upside rules.
12. J. Hardy -- Power potential
13. J. Bartlett -- Hoping for '09, expecting '10.
!4. Y. Escobar
15. A. Cabrera
16. C. Pennington
17. J. Uribe
18. I. Desmond
19. M. Scu-scu-Scuatro
20. A. Escobar -- No bat in Milwaukee, no bat in KC.
Shortstop really is ugly. I could see myself drafting Brignac or Bartlett and playing musical SS if they don't work out. Prospects including Grant Green, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Billy Hamilton and Manny Machado are all at least one year away.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. H. Ramirez -- Though it should be noted I see his decline in fantasy value as real as he is less inclined to steal.
2. T. Tulowitzki -- If he figures out April and May he's the NL MVP and a huge fantasy factor.
3. J. Reyes -- The risk isn't worth a 40 SB reward. He needs 60 to make it worthwhile and he isn't doing that, as much as I like him.
4. J. Rollins -- I guess I think his HR/SB total bests Jeter's BA.
5. S. Drew -- I know he is perenially disappointing, but I'm optimistic. He's 27, and that used to mean something.
6. D. Jeter -- Not seeing a huge bounceback.
7. A. Ramirez -- .270-15-15 sounds like stats I won't pay for.
8. E. Andrus -- SBs are worth more at positions where power is absent.
9. S. Castro -- BA regression candidate. Growing pains likely, but hang on in keeper leagues for future.
10. R. Furcal -- Health keeps him here. He's at least eight if he plays 150.
11. R. Brignac -- The bottom fell out here. All the rest of the guys are $1 for me. Upside rules.
12. J. Hardy -- Power potential
13. J. Bartlett -- Hoping for '09, expecting '10.
!4. Y. Escobar
15. A. Cabrera
16. C. Pennington
17. J. Uribe
18. I. Desmond
19. M. Scu-scu-Scuatro
20. A. Escobar -- No bat in Milwaukee, no bat in KC.
Shortstop really is ugly. I could see myself drafting Brignac or Bartlett and playing musical SS if they don't work out. Prospects including Grant Green, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Billy Hamilton and Manny Machado are all at least one year away.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Expert NCAA Bracket
Just joking. I'm farther from an expert in this thing than anything else I write on here (though it should be noted even this guy can see that UAB DOES NOT pass the eye test). I haven't really been competitive in the bracket since the days of Kenny Anderson, Dennis Scott and Brian Oliver. For a while I was picking the winner one year too early (Michigan State 1999 and Maryland 2001 were two of my premature calls), but I can't even do that anymore ( I picked Kansas last year). So, why am I even publishing my picks? I want to at least show you how great I am just in case the sun shines on this dog in March.
One thing that has become apparent to me as the quality of that talent in the NCAA has eroded do to early NBA defections is that upperclassmen win in this tournament. It almost doesn't matter anymore how high a profile your school has, it just matters that you have experienced players in your rotation. Kentucky couldn't win with all those Freshmen last year, and neither they or Carolina will do it this year. Purdue would have been my easy choice all year long, but the Hummel injury squashed that. So, which teams does that leave? Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes, who start three seniors, one junior and an All-American freshman will best the Irish who may be the most unheralded great team of the year and start an amazing five seniors.
The rest of the picks...
East Region
Ohio St.
UNC
Kentucky
Syracuse
Upset Alert
Washington over UNC?
West Region
Duke
Texas
UCONN
SDSU
Upset alert
Texas over Duke
Southwest Region
Kansas
Louisville
Purdue
Notre Dame
Upset Alert
Richmond over Vandy
Southeast
PITT
Wisconsin
St. John's
Florida
Upset Alert
Utah St. over Kansas St.
Cheers,
TFAM
One thing that has become apparent to me as the quality of that talent in the NCAA has eroded do to early NBA defections is that upperclassmen win in this tournament. It almost doesn't matter anymore how high a profile your school has, it just matters that you have experienced players in your rotation. Kentucky couldn't win with all those Freshmen last year, and neither they or Carolina will do it this year. Purdue would have been my easy choice all year long, but the Hummel injury squashed that. So, which teams does that leave? Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes, who start three seniors, one junior and an All-American freshman will best the Irish who may be the most unheralded great team of the year and start an amazing five seniors.
The rest of the picks...
East Region
Ohio St.
UNC
Kentucky
Syracuse
Upset Alert
Washington over UNC?
West Region
Duke
Texas
UCONN
SDSU
Upset alert
Texas over Duke
Southwest Region
Kansas
Louisville
Purdue
Notre Dame
Upset Alert
Richmond over Vandy
Southeast
PITT
Wisconsin
St. John's
Florida
Upset Alert
Utah St. over Kansas St.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Ranking the third basemen
I've gotten some suugestions to change the name of the blog back to The Fantasy Answer Man. Apparently I have some peeps who are thinking I'm writing about home improvement? I may switch back. I'm just looking for something with a little less ego and a little more creativity.
And before I get to baseball, Nick Watney...look out Augusta. I think he and Matt Kuchar are the main challengers to Mickelson and Woods.
Baseball...
Third base is certainly one of those sneaky shallow positions in fantasy. I'm not a big position scarcity guy, as you know, but as a tiebreaker, I'd take a 3B over an OF.
1. E. Longoria -- He'll be much better in 2011, no concerns at all. Top five overall.
2. D. Wright -- Rebounded like expected. He'll do it again. Safe pick.
3. A. Rodriguez -- I'd way rather have one of the top two, age becoming a factor.
4. R. Zimmerman -- Most would have him in front of A-Rod. I haven't gotten on board yet.
5. A. Beltre -- Drop off starts here, though not if he hits like he did last year.
6. P. Sandoval -- And a bigger drop off here. I think he recaptures the Fu.
7. J. Bautista -- Does he hit 30 HR and .250? That seems even a bit optimistic.
8. M. Young -- Gets torn apart by sabers, but still is a useful fantasy option.
9. P. Alvarez -- You know I always go with upside.
10. A. Ramirez -- There is some sleeper potential here with a bit of health.
11. M. Reynolds -- A year ago he was borderline top 5. This seems more realistic.
12. M. Prado -- Empty average is green peppers to me. Gross.
13. I. Stewart -- One post-hyper I'm not so high on.
14. J. Lopez -- I prefer him as a 2B, but I think there is some sleeper potential here.
15. S. Rolen -- The bottom has fallen out.
16. C. McGehee -- Whatever happened to Mat Gamel?
17. D. Valencia -- No prospect pedigree, but upside after big 2010.
18. C. Jones -- A head-to-head headache, but roto value here.
19. M. Mora -- Does he have the gig? The last sleeper.
20. C. Headley -- Nothing more than filler.
21. P. Polanco -- We've all ridden this train.
Don't forget about...
I think Wigginton has upside with a starting gig. There really isn't much different about the last six or seven on the list and guys like Casey Blake or Miguel Tejada. Tejada will qualify for SS though. Prospects here include the incredibly powerful Mike Moustakas, though there is a bit of Brandon Wood risk there. Lonnie Chisenhall of Cleveland is the second best 3B prospect who will likely debut in 2011.
NCAA tomorrow, shortstops on Tuesday.
Cheers,
TFAM
And before I get to baseball, Nick Watney...look out Augusta. I think he and Matt Kuchar are the main challengers to Mickelson and Woods.
Baseball...
Third base is certainly one of those sneaky shallow positions in fantasy. I'm not a big position scarcity guy, as you know, but as a tiebreaker, I'd take a 3B over an OF.
1. E. Longoria -- He'll be much better in 2011, no concerns at all. Top five overall.
2. D. Wright -- Rebounded like expected. He'll do it again. Safe pick.
3. A. Rodriguez -- I'd way rather have one of the top two, age becoming a factor.
4. R. Zimmerman -- Most would have him in front of A-Rod. I haven't gotten on board yet.
5. A. Beltre -- Drop off starts here, though not if he hits like he did last year.
6. P. Sandoval -- And a bigger drop off here. I think he recaptures the Fu.
7. J. Bautista -- Does he hit 30 HR and .250? That seems even a bit optimistic.
8. M. Young -- Gets torn apart by sabers, but still is a useful fantasy option.
9. P. Alvarez -- You know I always go with upside.
10. A. Ramirez -- There is some sleeper potential here with a bit of health.
11. M. Reynolds -- A year ago he was borderline top 5. This seems more realistic.
12. M. Prado -- Empty average is green peppers to me. Gross.
13. I. Stewart -- One post-hyper I'm not so high on.
14. J. Lopez -- I prefer him as a 2B, but I think there is some sleeper potential here.
15. S. Rolen -- The bottom has fallen out.
16. C. McGehee -- Whatever happened to Mat Gamel?
17. D. Valencia -- No prospect pedigree, but upside after big 2010.
18. C. Jones -- A head-to-head headache, but roto value here.
19. M. Mora -- Does he have the gig? The last sleeper.
20. C. Headley -- Nothing more than filler.
21. P. Polanco -- We've all ridden this train.
Don't forget about...
I think Wigginton has upside with a starting gig. There really isn't much different about the last six or seven on the list and guys like Casey Blake or Miguel Tejada. Tejada will qualify for SS though. Prospects here include the incredibly powerful Mike Moustakas, though there is a bit of Brandon Wood risk there. Lonnie Chisenhall of Cleveland is the second best 3B prospect who will likely debut in 2011.
NCAA tomorrow, shortstops on Tuesday.
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Ranking the second basemen
The big news here is that the guard has changed, with Mrs. Robinson Cano riding his batting average and Little League stadium to the top of the rankings at the position. Chase Utley's injury is huge, and Dustin Pedroia may have already reached his peak. Gordon Beckham is the one guy here with the chance to break the glass ceiling in 2011.
1. R. Cano -- Would have had this spot anyway, but Utley injury locks it in.
2. D. Pedroia -- The batting average helps, but 15-15 may be the ceiling.
3. R. Weeks -- Is he any more of an injury risk than Kinsler or Utley?
4. B. Phillips -- Can I say that I'm not as much of a fan of the second base pool as others?
5. C. Utley -- Dice roll if you have to draft him now. Healthy he is number two.
6. D. Uggla -- Thirty jacks in four straight years. Why don't I like him again? BA spiked in 2010 too.
7. I. Kinsler -- 103 G, 9 HR, 15 SB. Sounds like Orlando Cabrera.
8. G. Beckham -- First guy on my radar. Big second half in 2010 well documented.
9. A. Hill -- One year removed from .286 & 35 HR.
10. H. Kendrick -- I'm a sucker for post hyped post hype prospects.
11. B. Zobrist -- The steals are there even if the power is spotty.
12. M. Prado -- Empty average equals Freddy Sanchez. I've never owned Freddy Sanchez.
13. S. Rodriguez -- Love him. Nine HR, 13 SB. Hey, Orlando Cabrera! Could be 15-20 with ABs.
14. K. Johnson -- I hate paying for a career month.
15. C. Figgins -- Can help in SBs, and that counts for something.
16. B. Roberts -- Nothing more than a flier with injury reports again. We're in flier territory.
17. T. Nishioka -- Wildcard is at least somewhat interesting.
18. N. Walker -- Youth is on his side, pedigree is not.
19. D. Espinosa -- NO. THANKS.
20. T. Wigginton -- Is in Colorado now.
21. O. Hudson
22. C. Barmes -- Houston
23. F. Sanchez
24. M. Ellis
25. E. Young -- Steals if he gets ABs.
I find the Colorado situation interesting. You have Wigginton, Ian Stewart, Eric Young, and Jose Lopez vying for time at 2B/3B. Whichever guys get the ABs have a chance to be valuable. Keep an eye on prospects Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie, who could see the show at some point in 2010 though may not see April or May. Ackley is a top ten prospect in the game. I also like Jean Segura of the Angels in a keeper league.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. R. Cano -- Would have had this spot anyway, but Utley injury locks it in.
2. D. Pedroia -- The batting average helps, but 15-15 may be the ceiling.
3. R. Weeks -- Is he any more of an injury risk than Kinsler or Utley?
4. B. Phillips -- Can I say that I'm not as much of a fan of the second base pool as others?
5. C. Utley -- Dice roll if you have to draft him now. Healthy he is number two.
6. D. Uggla -- Thirty jacks in four straight years. Why don't I like him again? BA spiked in 2010 too.
7. I. Kinsler -- 103 G, 9 HR, 15 SB. Sounds like Orlando Cabrera.
8. G. Beckham -- First guy on my radar. Big second half in 2010 well documented.
9. A. Hill -- One year removed from .286 & 35 HR.
10. H. Kendrick -- I'm a sucker for post hyped post hype prospects.
11. B. Zobrist -- The steals are there even if the power is spotty.
12. M. Prado -- Empty average equals Freddy Sanchez. I've never owned Freddy Sanchez.
13. S. Rodriguez -- Love him. Nine HR, 13 SB. Hey, Orlando Cabrera! Could be 15-20 with ABs.
14. K. Johnson -- I hate paying for a career month.
15. C. Figgins -- Can help in SBs, and that counts for something.
16. B. Roberts -- Nothing more than a flier with injury reports again. We're in flier territory.
17. T. Nishioka -- Wildcard is at least somewhat interesting.
18. N. Walker -- Youth is on his side, pedigree is not.
19. D. Espinosa -- NO. THANKS.
20. T. Wigginton -- Is in Colorado now.
21. O. Hudson
22. C. Barmes -- Houston
23. F. Sanchez
24. M. Ellis
25. E. Young -- Steals if he gets ABs.
I find the Colorado situation interesting. You have Wigginton, Ian Stewart, Eric Young, and Jose Lopez vying for time at 2B/3B. Whichever guys get the ABs have a chance to be valuable. Keep an eye on prospects Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie, who could see the show at some point in 2010 though may not see April or May. Ackley is a top ten prospect in the game. I also like Jean Segura of the Angels in a keeper league.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
WGC at Doral
Mike Weir shot 85 last week. I don't meet to pile on, but 85? I feel like he should join my twice weekly game with my dad and my buddy Huse, he can give me a few strokes and we'll play for a trophy. It actually was pretty bad for others too out there in Palm Beach last week. Ernie Els shot a 78 Saturday and finished the tournament at 16 over par. So did Rory McIlroy. It was carnage. Still, 85?
And what to make of Els and McIlroy this week at Doral? Els is the defending champ, and he just dominated the field last year to win by four. McIlroy is top 10 in the world. Still, I just can't pick a guy that just finished a tournament at 16 over par unless they played Oakmont.
The good news is that the options are plentiful this week as all top 50 players in the world have once again gathered at a WGC event. Tiger has the best history here, with six wins and top tens in all ten tries. I know two more things about Woods that may interest you as well. I thought he actually looked very good in his one round at the match play, and you'd be broke by now if you'd wagered on him every time I said he was back. Still, I'm going back to the well.
You have to like the other top players who are hot as well. G Mac, Kaymer, Donald, Watney and Kuchar all are playing well enough to win. Phil and Dustin Johnson are threats every week, and there are obviously many more that could win.
If you want some past history Kuchar and Kaymer finished tied for third last year. Mickelson's record is shaky outside of a win in 2009, Furyk has been awful but has three top five in his last five at Doral, and Charl Schwartzel is hot and finished second in 2010.
Among those without stellar records here are McIlroy, Westwood, Johnson, Mahan and Kim.
Sleepers? Is anyone talking about Steve Stricker anymore? It seems he is due for a breakthrough. Justin Rose has been solid in 2010, and my old favorite Aaron Baddeley has qualified too. He looks to be back.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Kaymer
Westwood
McIlroy
Course History
Woods
Furyk
Els
Ogilvy
Watney
Who's Hot?
Donald
Kuchar
Sabbatini
Watney
McDowell
Who's Not?
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Furyk
Kim
My Picks
Woods
Kaymer
Watney
Stricker
Rose
Cheers,
TFAM
And what to make of Els and McIlroy this week at Doral? Els is the defending champ, and he just dominated the field last year to win by four. McIlroy is top 10 in the world. Still, I just can't pick a guy that just finished a tournament at 16 over par unless they played Oakmont.
The good news is that the options are plentiful this week as all top 50 players in the world have once again gathered at a WGC event. Tiger has the best history here, with six wins and top tens in all ten tries. I know two more things about Woods that may interest you as well. I thought he actually looked very good in his one round at the match play, and you'd be broke by now if you'd wagered on him every time I said he was back. Still, I'm going back to the well.
You have to like the other top players who are hot as well. G Mac, Kaymer, Donald, Watney and Kuchar all are playing well enough to win. Phil and Dustin Johnson are threats every week, and there are obviously many more that could win.
If you want some past history Kuchar and Kaymer finished tied for third last year. Mickelson's record is shaky outside of a win in 2009, Furyk has been awful but has three top five in his last five at Doral, and Charl Schwartzel is hot and finished second in 2010.
Among those without stellar records here are McIlroy, Westwood, Johnson, Mahan and Kim.
Sleepers? Is anyone talking about Steve Stricker anymore? It seems he is due for a breakthrough. Justin Rose has been solid in 2010, and my old favorite Aaron Baddeley has qualified too. He looks to be back.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Kaymer
Westwood
McIlroy
Course History
Woods
Furyk
Els
Ogilvy
Watney
Who's Hot?
Donald
Kuchar
Sabbatini
Watney
McDowell
Who's Not?
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Furyk
Kim
My Picks
Woods
Kaymer
Watney
Stricker
Rose
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, March 7, 2011
Ranking the first basemen
I know, I know, me trying to get these rankings out on time is like watching Bengie Molina try to take extra bases.
With first basemen the issue of position scarcity always comes up. Most people agree that first base is the deepest position in baseball, and the position scarcity point of view would be to say that it may be one of the last positions to fill when building a team. If the fourth ranked shortstop is, say, a washed up Derek Jeter, then you better grab one of the best and let the quality first baseman (the guys who really put up the monster numbers, BTW) slide by.
Well, I'm not a position scarcity guy. I'm a stats guy, and I want the best stats, regardless of position. I know shortstop is shallow, but why pay for a Jeter who'll post avergae numbers when you can get an Orlando Cabrera who'ss post a couple less steals and a few less runs? Take the stats early, and, often times, the stats come from the big boppers at first base.
1. A. Pujols -- He does seem to be declining, but the batting average is brilliant.
2. M. Cabrera -- Not a large gap between he and Albert, also a batting average monster.
3. A. Gonzalez -- Soem risk here with the league change, but Fenway should be perfect.
4. J. Votto -- I'm pessimistic on a repeat, but the value falls off here.
5. P. Fielder -- Contract year? Could hit 45 HR easily.
6. K. Youkilis -- I like the batting average, again. Pretty safe play here.
7. M. Teixeira -- I think he can bounce back, but I'm not drafting him with the slow start.
8. R. Howard -- Another slow starter, trade for him in June.
9. A. Dunn -- I just think he's safer than Morneau, not as much upside though.
10. J. Morneau -- I have a hard time paying his price with the ?'s. Seems mysterious he still isn't 100%.
11. K. Morales -- His ceiling his lower, but his injury seems less severe than Morneau.
12. B. Butler -- Do you believe? I do, but the drop off has begun.
13. P. Konerko -- I'm not paying for last year.
14. C. Pena -- I like him as a bargain.
15. A. Huff -- Yeah, and you want the lesser first basemen?
16. D. Lee
17. A. LaRoche
18. J. Loney
19. I. Davis
20. J. Smoak -- At least there is some upside here as a CI.
21. F. Freeman -- Ditto
22. M. Laporta
23. T. Helton
24. B. Wallace
25. G. Sanchez
Now, keep in mind that Posey, C. Lee, Cuddyer, and Berkman all qualify, but I think they are more valuable in their other positions. C. Lee, Cuddy and Berkman are all in the 15-23 range in that order.
Don't forget about Brandon Belt and Yonder Alonso who are an injury from full time gigs. Also, Eric Hosmer and potentially Jesus Montero (if he isn't a catcher) are big time bats who are a year away.
Golf tomorrow, second basemen Wednesday.
Cheers,
TFAM
With first basemen the issue of position scarcity always comes up. Most people agree that first base is the deepest position in baseball, and the position scarcity point of view would be to say that it may be one of the last positions to fill when building a team. If the fourth ranked shortstop is, say, a washed up Derek Jeter, then you better grab one of the best and let the quality first baseman (the guys who really put up the monster numbers, BTW) slide by.
Well, I'm not a position scarcity guy. I'm a stats guy, and I want the best stats, regardless of position. I know shortstop is shallow, but why pay for a Jeter who'll post avergae numbers when you can get an Orlando Cabrera who'ss post a couple less steals and a few less runs? Take the stats early, and, often times, the stats come from the big boppers at first base.
1. A. Pujols -- He does seem to be declining, but the batting average is brilliant.
2. M. Cabrera -- Not a large gap between he and Albert, also a batting average monster.
3. A. Gonzalez -- Soem risk here with the league change, but Fenway should be perfect.
4. J. Votto -- I'm pessimistic on a repeat, but the value falls off here.
5. P. Fielder -- Contract year? Could hit 45 HR easily.
6. K. Youkilis -- I like the batting average, again. Pretty safe play here.
7. M. Teixeira -- I think he can bounce back, but I'm not drafting him with the slow start.
8. R. Howard -- Another slow starter, trade for him in June.
9. A. Dunn -- I just think he's safer than Morneau, not as much upside though.
10. J. Morneau -- I have a hard time paying his price with the ?'s. Seems mysterious he still isn't 100%.
11. K. Morales -- His ceiling his lower, but his injury seems less severe than Morneau.
12. B. Butler -- Do you believe? I do, but the drop off has begun.
13. P. Konerko -- I'm not paying for last year.
14. C. Pena -- I like him as a bargain.
15. A. Huff -- Yeah, and you want the lesser first basemen?
16. D. Lee
17. A. LaRoche
18. J. Loney
19. I. Davis
20. J. Smoak -- At least there is some upside here as a CI.
21. F. Freeman -- Ditto
22. M. Laporta
23. T. Helton
24. B. Wallace
25. G. Sanchez
Now, keep in mind that Posey, C. Lee, Cuddyer, and Berkman all qualify, but I think they are more valuable in their other positions. C. Lee, Cuddy and Berkman are all in the 15-23 range in that order.
Don't forget about Brandon Belt and Yonder Alonso who are an injury from full time gigs. Also, Eric Hosmer and potentially Jesus Montero (if he isn't a catcher) are big time bats who are a year away.
Golf tomorrow, second basemen Wednesday.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Honda Classic
Must be nice to be the Honda Classic right now. Tour events like Harbour Town are sturggling to get a sponsor and may be going under, and the Honda gets the cushy spot right between two WGC events so all the top Euros can hit the Honda in their pre-Masters US Tour.
Which leads me to my thesis this week. In a one-and-done, you almost have to pick a Euro this week. Westwood, McIlroy, E. Molinari and Ross Fisher are all non-members teeing it up this week at Palm Beach Gardens, and with their limited schedules, you take the chances with them while you can. Even members like G Mac, Donald and Poulter play fewer events here as dual tourers, so those guys make a lot of sense too.
Which one would I pick this week? I like Westwood and Donald (how good was he last week, BTW?) to perform well, but I like G Mac to win the event. All three have a history here and have played well and G Mac was in the thick of it until a Sunday 76 last year. Plus, with apologies to Kaymer, McDowell is playing like the best in the world and has for almost a full year.
The sexpert pick this week is the rejuvenated Vijay Singh. I'll pass. He's due for a letdown. Just a hunch. And stay away from Villegas too. I know he's the defending champ, but his only air time at Dove Mountain was a series of missed three footers.
Others to look for? Kuchar is a top 10 machine, Anthony Kim was second last year (but has been largely average in 2011). Ernie Els and YE Yang were winners prior to Villegas. Yang looked good last week, dispatching McDowell on his run to the quarters. Fowler and Overton both missed the cut last year.
Make sure you are aware of the withdrawals too. Holmes, Cink, Rose and Crane have all pulled out.
A sleeper? Frederick Jacobsen has top 10s in two straight trips here, and Jimmy Walker has been on the leaderboard in each of his past two events.
Most Talent
Westwood
McIlroy
McDowell
Donald
Els
Course History
Villegas
Els
Yang
Jacobsen
Wi
Who's Hot?
Donald
Kuchar
Walker
V. Singh
Yang
Who's Not?
Poulter
Villegas
Weir
Lovemark
O'Hair
My Picks
McDowell
Yang
Donald
Westwood
Jacobsen
Cheers,
TFAM
Which leads me to my thesis this week. In a one-and-done, you almost have to pick a Euro this week. Westwood, McIlroy, E. Molinari and Ross Fisher are all non-members teeing it up this week at Palm Beach Gardens, and with their limited schedules, you take the chances with them while you can. Even members like G Mac, Donald and Poulter play fewer events here as dual tourers, so those guys make a lot of sense too.
Which one would I pick this week? I like Westwood and Donald (how good was he last week, BTW?) to perform well, but I like G Mac to win the event. All three have a history here and have played well and G Mac was in the thick of it until a Sunday 76 last year. Plus, with apologies to Kaymer, McDowell is playing like the best in the world and has for almost a full year.
The sexpert pick this week is the rejuvenated Vijay Singh. I'll pass. He's due for a letdown. Just a hunch. And stay away from Villegas too. I know he's the defending champ, but his only air time at Dove Mountain was a series of missed three footers.
Others to look for? Kuchar is a top 10 machine, Anthony Kim was second last year (but has been largely average in 2011). Ernie Els and YE Yang were winners prior to Villegas. Yang looked good last week, dispatching McDowell on his run to the quarters. Fowler and Overton both missed the cut last year.
Make sure you are aware of the withdrawals too. Holmes, Cink, Rose and Crane have all pulled out.
A sleeper? Frederick Jacobsen has top 10s in two straight trips here, and Jimmy Walker has been on the leaderboard in each of his past two events.
Most Talent
Westwood
McIlroy
McDowell
Donald
Els
Course History
Villegas
Els
Yang
Jacobsen
Wi
Who's Hot?
Donald
Kuchar
Walker
V. Singh
Yang
Who's Not?
Poulter
Villegas
Weir
Lovemark
O'Hair
My Picks
McDowell
Yang
Donald
Westwood
Jacobsen
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Catching the baseball fever
For those wanting the golf picks...after my match play performance, why? Just kidding, I'll preview the Honda tomorrow, but I need to start with baseball, it is March after all, and the madness is about to begin.
I'm going to start with the catchers and the number one rule to keep in mind with the backstops is that you only pay a premium in two catcher leagues for the position. When you start two, you have to invest, as the pickings of guys that even bring relevance is pretty thin. However, when you play just one and the position only needs to go 12 deep, well, let's just say I'll take Jorge Posada for $1 over Miguel Montero for $8 any day of the week.
Now, if you believe Matt Weiters can start to post .300-30-100 seasons, he would be worth it, and Mauer can be very valuable too, so I guess I don't have as much of a problem at the top, just don't pay for catching mediocrity.
1. J. Mauer -- He's a .320 lock, and 15-80-80 is good for tops at the position and leaves room for upside.
2. B. Posey -- No soph slump, and I lean youth...always
3. V. Martinez -- I'm a little down on the ballpark switch.
4. B. McCann -- We are splitting hairs 2-4....
5. M. Weiters -- ...and I'll pass on them all and take Weiters for less. If not Weiters, I'm not spending. After all, Weiters catches the bird before the bird catches the worm.
6. C. Santana -- Again, youth, but I'll take Weiters.
7. M. Napoli -- He's an OPS monster, and if he gets the ABs, he can mash in Texas.
8. G. Soto -- Still a good value and he may come cheap.
9. M. Montero -- And the bottom just fell out. No more than $1 from here out unless you need two.
10. C. Ianetta -- Grasping at his perennial upside.
11. J. Posada -- Can he still hit 20 HR?
12. AJ Pierzynski -- Just no BA anymore.
13. JP Arrenciba -- A rookie with pop
14. R. Martin -- Now a Yankee pushing Jorge to DH
15. Y. Molina
16. R. Doumit
17. J. Buck
18. K. Suzuki -- Has anyone ever won a fantasy title with Kurt Suzuki?
19. J. Saltalamacchia -- Boston
20. J. Jaso -- A leadoff catcher?
Don't forget about...Jesus Montero is a Yankee prospect that can mash. He should be drafted in all keeper leagues. He's an offensive star in the making.
Cheers,
TFAM
I'm going to start with the catchers and the number one rule to keep in mind with the backstops is that you only pay a premium in two catcher leagues for the position. When you start two, you have to invest, as the pickings of guys that even bring relevance is pretty thin. However, when you play just one and the position only needs to go 12 deep, well, let's just say I'll take Jorge Posada for $1 over Miguel Montero for $8 any day of the week.
Now, if you believe Matt Weiters can start to post .300-30-100 seasons, he would be worth it, and Mauer can be very valuable too, so I guess I don't have as much of a problem at the top, just don't pay for catching mediocrity.
1. J. Mauer -- He's a .320 lock, and 15-80-80 is good for tops at the position and leaves room for upside.
2. B. Posey -- No soph slump, and I lean youth...always
3. V. Martinez -- I'm a little down on the ballpark switch.
4. B. McCann -- We are splitting hairs 2-4....
5. M. Weiters -- ...and I'll pass on them all and take Weiters for less. If not Weiters, I'm not spending. After all, Weiters catches the bird before the bird catches the worm.
6. C. Santana -- Again, youth, but I'll take Weiters.
7. M. Napoli -- He's an OPS monster, and if he gets the ABs, he can mash in Texas.
8. G. Soto -- Still a good value and he may come cheap.
9. M. Montero -- And the bottom just fell out. No more than $1 from here out unless you need two.
10. C. Ianetta -- Grasping at his perennial upside.
11. J. Posada -- Can he still hit 20 HR?
12. AJ Pierzynski -- Just no BA anymore.
13. JP Arrenciba -- A rookie with pop
14. R. Martin -- Now a Yankee pushing Jorge to DH
15. Y. Molina
16. R. Doumit
17. J. Buck
18. K. Suzuki -- Has anyone ever won a fantasy title with Kurt Suzuki?
19. J. Saltalamacchia -- Boston
20. J. Jaso -- A leadoff catcher?
Don't forget about...Jesus Montero is a Yankee prospect that can mash. He should be drafted in all keeper leagues. He's an offensive star in the making.
Cheers,
TFAM
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