Two days ago, I talked about the players to keep an eye on in the season's opening month in the American League. Today, it's on to the senior circuit. Without further ado...
Manny Ramirez, OF, LAD
Will we see the 2008 or 2009 version of Manny in Tinseltown?
James Loney, 1B, LAD
I have a hunch the power is coming this year. We should know if he's worth a darn in a month or so.
Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD
He was awful at the end of 2009. Can he rebound?
Conor Jackson, OF, ARI
Jackson has some big sleeper potential this year, but he could also be on the bench without a fast start. Ditto Chris B. Young.
Ian Kennedy, SP, ARI
Likely a free agent in most leagues, the once heralded Yankee prospect makes the friendly move to the NL. Worth keeping an eye on.
Eric Young, 2B, COL
If he starts getting regular ABs, he is going to be a force on the bases.
Chase Headley, 3B, SD
Another former hyped prospect, finally has the hot corner job and a bunch of ML at bats under his belt.
Matt Lindstrom, RP, HOU
Lindstrom better be good early, or Brandon Lyon will be blowing saves by May.
Lastings Milledge, OF, PIT
Probably one of the two guys I'm most interested to see in April. Could go in virtually any direction, but be ready to pounce if he starts hot.
Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN
I like him, but I'm not sure he has the power that he flashed in helping Avada Kedavra to the title in 2009.
Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
Did he finally find something in the second half of 2009? He could be on the verge of the breakout we've been waiting for since 2007.
Colby Rasmus, OF, STL
Rasmus is going to play every day, and he should be comfortable after getting his feet wet last year.
Carlos Marmol, RP, CHC
Marmol is a wild, wild card. In other words, if he can find the strike zone, he's Broxton. If not, he's prespectacled Ricky Vaughn, which would be the end of Sweet Lou.
Jeff Francoeur, OF, NYM
Fernando Martinez is going to take Francoeur's PT if he doesn't start fast.
Oliver Perez, SP, NYM
You could do worse than Perez as a flier bench SP. For example, you could roster Livan Hernandez. Still, K's are hard to come by, and Perez has done it before.
Roy Halladay, SP, PHI
Can't wait to see him in the NL, that's all. I hope the pressure doesn't get him early.
Brad Lidge, RP, PHI
Is he going to be healthy? Just keep the health reports in your mind. Ryan Madson is the guy until Lidge comes back.
Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA
Maybin is the second guy (with Milledge) that really has everything to gain in April. He could be lost in the shuffle with other Marlins prospects on the come if he doesn't do it now.
Anibal Sanchez, SP, FLA
Hey, he once threw a no hitter for me in the fantasy playoffs. That gets you a looooooooong leash.
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
At least there is some interesting young player to watch in DC while the Stras toils in AA. Guzman will get his ABs if Desmond struggles out of the gate.
Tim Hudson, SP, ATL
He is a forgotten man right now, and his stats haven't been as bad as I thought in ATL. Could be a big year at a cheap price.
Jason Heyward, OF, ATL
Watch your windshields, Heyward is here.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Shell Houston Open
It's appropriate that Shell is the sponsor of a PGA event as trying to fin a winner in these things certainly seems like a bit of a shell game sometimes. I did have Els on the list last week, and for those of you already prepping for Augusta, I think Els goes in there as the favorite.
This week, many of the world's best, including Ernie, will be teeing it up at Redstone, which has tried to set up the course to play as much like Augusta as possible to draw the top talent. The course changed before the 2007 tourney to the Augusta wannabe, so I'm only looking back to those three years for our past results. Paul Casey won here last year, and has a decent record at the Masters, so the changes may be working. Then again, something called Johnson Wagner won the Shell the year before. Anyway, both Casey and Els have played well all year, and are the two top choices this week.
Mickelson, Harrington, and Westwood are all in Hourston this week, but these three stars do not have as good of a record here as the next tier of guys. Ogilvy and Mahan have each produced two top tens in the last three years here. So has Fred Couples, and he is scorching hot on the Champions Tour right now....he's also a Houston guy who does pretty well at Augusta. Vijay is back this week too, for now. I'd really like his chances this week if I knew about the back issues, but I'll take a wait and see with Veej. JB Holmes finished second a year ago and is playing well to start 2010. Among the golfers with star power but have yet to find their games in 2010 we have Rory McIlroy, who finihsed 19th last year and Adam Scott, who won here in 2007 but hasn't been the same for a couple years.
Sleepers include Brian Davis, who is quietly playing some good golf, Kevin Streelman, who top 10'd at the Palmer and finished 14th here in his only start and Nick O'Hern, who finsihsed third a year ago and has also been above average in 2010.
Most Talent
Mickelson
Els
McIlroy
Vijay
Westwood
Course History
Ogilvy
Couples
Mahan
Casey
Appleby
Who's Hot
Els
Casey
Kuchar
Couples
Harrington
Who's Not
McIlroy
Glover
Scott
Leonard
Mickelson
My Picks
Els
Casey
Harrington
Couples
Kim
Cheers,
TFAM
This week, many of the world's best, including Ernie, will be teeing it up at Redstone, which has tried to set up the course to play as much like Augusta as possible to draw the top talent. The course changed before the 2007 tourney to the Augusta wannabe, so I'm only looking back to those three years for our past results. Paul Casey won here last year, and has a decent record at the Masters, so the changes may be working. Then again, something called Johnson Wagner won the Shell the year before. Anyway, both Casey and Els have played well all year, and are the two top choices this week.
Mickelson, Harrington, and Westwood are all in Hourston this week, but these three stars do not have as good of a record here as the next tier of guys. Ogilvy and Mahan have each produced two top tens in the last three years here. So has Fred Couples, and he is scorching hot on the Champions Tour right now....he's also a Houston guy who does pretty well at Augusta. Vijay is back this week too, for now. I'd really like his chances this week if I knew about the back issues, but I'll take a wait and see with Veej. JB Holmes finished second a year ago and is playing well to start 2010. Among the golfers with star power but have yet to find their games in 2010 we have Rory McIlroy, who finihsed 19th last year and Adam Scott, who won here in 2007 but hasn't been the same for a couple years.
Sleepers include Brian Davis, who is quietly playing some good golf, Kevin Streelman, who top 10'd at the Palmer and finished 14th here in his only start and Nick O'Hern, who finsihsed third a year ago and has also been above average in 2010.
Most Talent
Mickelson
Els
McIlroy
Vijay
Westwood
Course History
Ogilvy
Couples
Mahan
Casey
Appleby
Who's Hot
Els
Casey
Kuchar
Couples
Harrington
Who's Not
McIlroy
Glover
Scott
Leonard
Mickelson
My Picks
Els
Casey
Harrington
Couples
Kim
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, March 29, 2010
April players to watch -- AL
April is an incredibly important month in fantasy baseball. I have continuously stressed the importance of your players getting off to a good start, but it's more than that. There are many, many players in the league that have question marks surrounding them as they head into the season. Some are already on fantasy teams fighting to keep their playing time. Some are in your waiver pool and will be key additons in 2010. Some players have switched leagues or teams and we need to know how they will respond to said change. Some players will simply just breakout and never look back, Adam Lind style.
Here are the guys I will be closely monitoring in April. We'll do the AL today, and the NL...Wednesday? Golf preview tomorrow.
Ben Sheets, SP, OAK
Does he still have it? I'd bet yes, despite the poor spring numbers, but it's worth monitoring after all the injuries.
Trevor Cahill, SP, OAK
Cahill needs to produce or he's going to end up in AAA. Remember, he's a year away from being a top five pitching prospect in the game.
Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA
Finally, his time has come. He sure would make all of us who have been complaining that he needs more PT look stupid if he really can't play and the K's override his immense power.
Milton Bradley, OF/DH, SEA
Say what you want abour him, and this quote says plenty. "Two years ago, I played, and I was good. I go to Chicago, not good. I've been good my whole career. So, obviously, it was something with Chicago, not me." Still, he's been an OPS machine in the past when healthy, and he's apparently going to hit cleanup in Seattle.
Chris Davis, 1B, TEX
Yesterday, I talked about Justin Smoak, who is breathing down his neck. Davis needs to produce more than Casey at the Bat-like K's early to keep his job.
Delmon Young, OF, MIN
It may be now or never time for Delmon. If he doesnlt hit early I can see him going back to eating that extra meal a day.
Alex Rios, OF, CWS
Rios was as bad as you can be for the portion of the season last year after I dealt for him. Unfortunatley, that was a large chuck, as the deal was done in May. April should tell us if he'll find it again.
Jake Peavy, SP, CWS
I have a hunch he'll be great early when most of the league hasn't seen him and he could be a great sell high in a few weeks. He may make the May list too.
Austin Jackson, OF, DET
He is going to start in center, and has speed to be a fantasy factor. Can he hit?
Billy Butler, 1B, KC
He's the only Royal outside of Greinke and Soria who's even ownable right now. You know how I know that? Here's how. Will Butler make the leap in 2010?
Matt LaPorta, 1B, CLE
Will he provide the power we've been waiting for? If not, Russell Branyan is starting the season on the DL and will be back to cut into LaPorta's PT.
Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE
Buster Olney talks about Carmona so much I'm surprised he's still on the wire in one of my leagues. He's been brilliant this spring. He's also been terrible for at least two straight years.
Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS
The Sox have the depth to go in another direction if Clay decides to steal some computers or pitch poorly.
John Lackey, SP, BOS
Can he pitch in Fenway?
Jeremy Hermida, OF, BOS
He's the fourth OF now, but still, I'm intrigued. David Ortiz wasn't on rosters when he first got to Fenway either.
Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY
Will he turn into a 35 HR hitter with the porch? Will he get pulled against lefties?
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
He's in the same situation as Buchholz, minus the technology.
Sean Rodriguez/Ben Zobrist/Matt Joyce, OF/2B, TB
I'm really interested to see how the ABs get spread out between these guys in Tampa. All of them can play.
David Price, SP, TB
Price has been around long enough to be a breakout guy.
Wade Davis, SP, TB
All signs point to positive with Davis, who is minor league seasoned and ready to go. Should be a fantasy factor right away.
Travis Snider, OF, TOR
Another former top prspect flying a little under the radar. I think he's going to hit in 2010.
Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL
Felix Pie is the fourth OF and Jones and Markakis are pretty locked in. Reimold needs to start well to keep his value.
Chris Tillman, SP, BAL
Everyone loves Brian Matusz, his lefthanded counterpart, and Tillman isn't getting any national buzz. That could change with a strong April. He has the tools.
Cheers,
TFAM
Here are the guys I will be closely monitoring in April. We'll do the AL today, and the NL...Wednesday? Golf preview tomorrow.
Ben Sheets, SP, OAK
Does he still have it? I'd bet yes, despite the poor spring numbers, but it's worth monitoring after all the injuries.
Trevor Cahill, SP, OAK
Cahill needs to produce or he's going to end up in AAA. Remember, he's a year away from being a top five pitching prospect in the game.
Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA
Finally, his time has come. He sure would make all of us who have been complaining that he needs more PT look stupid if he really can't play and the K's override his immense power.
Milton Bradley, OF/DH, SEA
Say what you want abour him, and this quote says plenty. "Two years ago, I played, and I was good. I go to Chicago, not good. I've been good my whole career. So, obviously, it was something with Chicago, not me." Still, he's been an OPS machine in the past when healthy, and he's apparently going to hit cleanup in Seattle.
Chris Davis, 1B, TEX
Yesterday, I talked about Justin Smoak, who is breathing down his neck. Davis needs to produce more than Casey at the Bat-like K's early to keep his job.
Delmon Young, OF, MIN
It may be now or never time for Delmon. If he doesnlt hit early I can see him going back to eating that extra meal a day.
Alex Rios, OF, CWS
Rios was as bad as you can be for the portion of the season last year after I dealt for him. Unfortunatley, that was a large chuck, as the deal was done in May. April should tell us if he'll find it again.
Jake Peavy, SP, CWS
I have a hunch he'll be great early when most of the league hasn't seen him and he could be a great sell high in a few weeks. He may make the May list too.
Austin Jackson, OF, DET
He is going to start in center, and has speed to be a fantasy factor. Can he hit?
Billy Butler, 1B, KC
He's the only Royal outside of Greinke and Soria who's even ownable right now. You know how I know that? Here's how. Will Butler make the leap in 2010?
Matt LaPorta, 1B, CLE
Will he provide the power we've been waiting for? If not, Russell Branyan is starting the season on the DL and will be back to cut into LaPorta's PT.
Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE
Buster Olney talks about Carmona so much I'm surprised he's still on the wire in one of my leagues. He's been brilliant this spring. He's also been terrible for at least two straight years.
Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS
The Sox have the depth to go in another direction if Clay decides to steal some computers or pitch poorly.
John Lackey, SP, BOS
Can he pitch in Fenway?
Jeremy Hermida, OF, BOS
He's the fourth OF now, but still, I'm intrigued. David Ortiz wasn't on rosters when he first got to Fenway either.
Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY
Will he turn into a 35 HR hitter with the porch? Will he get pulled against lefties?
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
He's in the same situation as Buchholz, minus the technology.
Sean Rodriguez/Ben Zobrist/Matt Joyce, OF/2B, TB
I'm really interested to see how the ABs get spread out between these guys in Tampa. All of them can play.
David Price, SP, TB
Price has been around long enough to be a breakout guy.
Wade Davis, SP, TB
All signs point to positive with Davis, who is minor league seasoned and ready to go. Should be a fantasy factor right away.
Travis Snider, OF, TOR
Another former top prspect flying a little under the radar. I think he's going to hit in 2010.
Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL
Felix Pie is the fourth OF and Jones and Markakis are pretty locked in. Reimold needs to start well to keep his value.
Chris Tillman, SP, BAL
Everyone loves Brian Matusz, his lefthanded counterpart, and Tillman isn't getting any national buzz. That could change with a strong April. He has the tools.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Ten prospects to watch
Three years ago, I missed out on both Ryan Braun and Tim Lincecum when they were recalled fairly early in the 2007 season. Now, I never imagined Braun would have zero growing pains and that Lincy would have two Cys in three years, but I was hot when another owner in my league beat me to the punch on both guys. I have since acquired Timmy via trade (it's a shallow keeper league), but I don't want to let guys like that slide past me anymore. Both Braun and Lincy were torching the minors in 2007 before they were called up, and savvy owners needs to be aware of the prospects to watch in the minors in 2010. I don't expect any of these guys can come in and be Braun or Lincy right away (maybe Stras?), but you want to keep an eye on these 10, who I have tried to place in order of when I see them getting the call.
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nats
He's the one guy who can make a huge impact right away. He should be up by June at the latest and is everything you want from a fantasy stud.
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
Pedro is one of a handful of guys who should produce power numbers pretty quickly, and he plays third. Alvarez is another June guy.
Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
If Chris Davis is getting a standing ovation again in May for just making contact, Smoak will be in Texas sooner rather than later. He is a 30 homer guy with upside in that hitting environment.
Chris Carter, 1B, A's
By all accounts he has major pop, and by all accounts, Daric Barton is terrible. Carter will see summer action in Oakland. Too bad that park is horrendous for bats.
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays
He is next in line once one of their five goes down and he may be every bit as good as Wade Davis is right now. He's clearly the number two SP who will start in the minors (I guess the verdict is still out on Chapman, who may be about even with Hellickson, so watch him too!).
Drew Storen, RP, Nats
The lesser heralded of the Nats two first rounders last year has (in my estimation) a 50-50 shot of being the closer in Washington by August.
Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
Jennings also has a tool (speed) that should be on display right away. Problem here is the depth of talent in front of him. Upton and Crawford are there, then Zobrist, Joyce and Sean Rodriguez are ahead of Jennings. He'll get the call when someone gets hurt, but may not stick until 2011.
Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
Now we start getting into guys that may be less likely to come this year. The Marlins raved about Stanton this spring, but he is still 20 and he K's a ton. If he gets the call he is a light tower power/speed combo guy, but I'd bet he'll struggle early.
Dominic Brown, OF, Phillies
Brown is just as tasty as Stanton, and just as unpolished. They have similar tools and I would take the Philles park over Florida's for the next three years. He could be up later in the year if one of the Phils outfielders suffers an injury.
Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
He may be a bit of a stretch for 2010, but he supposedly has a monster bat. Just know the name, and keep close watch.
Five who missed the cut?
Buster Posey, C, Giants --Don't love the reports on his bat
Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins --Should be okay, but seemingly not the high end potential of the rest of these bats.
Michael Taylor, OF, A's -- He has the five tools, I just hate that park.
Carlos Santana, C, Indians -- Maybe should have Montero's spot. Big catcher bat. I just consistenly read better things about Montero.
Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants -- Was top five prospect before '09 when he hit a wall. His first couple months in AAA should be interesting.
Cheers,
TFAM
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nats
He's the one guy who can make a huge impact right away. He should be up by June at the latest and is everything you want from a fantasy stud.
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
Pedro is one of a handful of guys who should produce power numbers pretty quickly, and he plays third. Alvarez is another June guy.
Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
If Chris Davis is getting a standing ovation again in May for just making contact, Smoak will be in Texas sooner rather than later. He is a 30 homer guy with upside in that hitting environment.
Chris Carter, 1B, A's
By all accounts he has major pop, and by all accounts, Daric Barton is terrible. Carter will see summer action in Oakland. Too bad that park is horrendous for bats.
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays
He is next in line once one of their five goes down and he may be every bit as good as Wade Davis is right now. He's clearly the number two SP who will start in the minors (I guess the verdict is still out on Chapman, who may be about even with Hellickson, so watch him too!).
Drew Storen, RP, Nats
The lesser heralded of the Nats two first rounders last year has (in my estimation) a 50-50 shot of being the closer in Washington by August.
Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
Jennings also has a tool (speed) that should be on display right away. Problem here is the depth of talent in front of him. Upton and Crawford are there, then Zobrist, Joyce and Sean Rodriguez are ahead of Jennings. He'll get the call when someone gets hurt, but may not stick until 2011.
Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
Now we start getting into guys that may be less likely to come this year. The Marlins raved about Stanton this spring, but he is still 20 and he K's a ton. If he gets the call he is a light tower power/speed combo guy, but I'd bet he'll struggle early.
Dominic Brown, OF, Phillies
Brown is just as tasty as Stanton, and just as unpolished. They have similar tools and I would take the Philles park over Florida's for the next three years. He could be up later in the year if one of the Phils outfielders suffers an injury.
Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
He may be a bit of a stretch for 2010, but he supposedly has a monster bat. Just know the name, and keep close watch.
Five who missed the cut?
Buster Posey, C, Giants --Don't love the reports on his bat
Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins --Should be okay, but seemingly not the high end potential of the rest of these bats.
Michael Taylor, OF, A's -- He has the five tools, I just hate that park.
Carlos Santana, C, Indians -- Maybe should have Montero's spot. Big catcher bat. I just consistenly read better things about Montero.
Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants -- Was top five prospect before '09 when he hit a wall. His first couple months in AAA should be interesting.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, March 27, 2010
MaRkeT MAdNeSs
All my rankings have been posted, you know which sleepers I like, and you know a few guys I'm staying away from. Still, one thing you have to know about fantasy sports is that players values are CONSTANTLY in flux. I know I overreact to every inning and at bat in fantasy, and you should too (it's just more fun that way). This year, I will be writing a weekly Market Madness entry here where you can stay on top of the volatile player market. Here's the spring training version, and the only way to gain or lose value right now is health or opportunity for increased/decreased PT.
Players on the rise...
Jose Reyes, SS, Mets
The fact that his thyroid issue was a two week deal and not an eight week deal is enough to get my hamstrings twitching. Let's hope Jose doesn't feel the same way. I think he's a third rounder at worst right now. Remember, if he can stay healthy, and he has for FOUR of the last FIVE years, he is a top 10 player. This isn't Eric Chavez here...
Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
Yes, he won the job, and he's a must own in keeper leagues if you can hold onto him for a few years. Still, in redraft leagues, Heyward's national hype may set the bar a bit too high. The guy is a manchild, but he's still just 20. If he goes .280 with 20-25 bombs it's a huge year.
Chris Perez, RP, Indians
Wouldn't surprise me, or Lou Brown, if Kerry Wood never got that job back. Wouldn't surprise me, or Roger Dorn, if Chris Perez falls flat on his face. Hey, he at least has the opportunity...
Jason Frasor, RP, Blue Jays
Looks like he is going to start the season as the closer.
Players on the fall...
Brandon Webb, SP, Arizona
The reports on his shoulder are nothing short of brutal, and it's almost to the point where I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot scalpel. In other words, whenever Webb gets picked it's too early at this point.
Joba Chamberlain, RP, Yankees
He lost the job to Hughes, and I think his turn in the rotation has forever passed him by. Set up guys aren't really valuable in my leagues, I don't know about yours.
Cheers,
TFAM
Players on the rise...
Jose Reyes, SS, Mets
The fact that his thyroid issue was a two week deal and not an eight week deal is enough to get my hamstrings twitching. Let's hope Jose doesn't feel the same way. I think he's a third rounder at worst right now. Remember, if he can stay healthy, and he has for FOUR of the last FIVE years, he is a top 10 player. This isn't Eric Chavez here...
Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
Yes, he won the job, and he's a must own in keeper leagues if you can hold onto him for a few years. Still, in redraft leagues, Heyward's national hype may set the bar a bit too high. The guy is a manchild, but he's still just 20. If he goes .280 with 20-25 bombs it's a huge year.
Chris Perez, RP, Indians
Wouldn't surprise me, or Lou Brown, if Kerry Wood never got that job back. Wouldn't surprise me, or Roger Dorn, if Chris Perez falls flat on his face. Hey, he at least has the opportunity...
Jason Frasor, RP, Blue Jays
Looks like he is going to start the season as the closer.
Players on the fall...
Brandon Webb, SP, Arizona
The reports on his shoulder are nothing short of brutal, and it's almost to the point where I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot scalpel. In other words, whenever Webb gets picked it's too early at this point.
Joba Chamberlain, RP, Yankees
He lost the job to Hughes, and I think his turn in the rotation has forever passed him by. Set up guys aren't really valuable in my leagues, I don't know about yours.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Time for some iced tea and lemonade, as the PGA Tour takes on Bay Hill this week in the king's house. Who is going to win? I have an idea, but I seem to be better at picking guys who finish second, as KJ Choi did last week.
Tiger won here last year, but he is apparently spending his time at Augusta this week instead of Bay Hill. That opens it up for a host of others, most notably Phil Mickelson, who is a former champ here (1997) and has three other top fives at this course. Phil has been erratic this year, and actually hasn't played well in his last two turns here, but I like him this week, a lot.
My main man Sean O'Hair had a 2nd and a 3rd in his last two starts at Bay Hill. He also has frustrated the bejeezus out of me so far in 2010. I like his game, but hate the way he's playing. Speaking of hate, Vijay is out again this week, which is just killing the team I have where I can start six guys a week. I do like the way that others of that team are playing though. Els is here this week, and is a solid bet coming off the win at the WGC. Justin Rose seems to be finding his game too, and Rickie Fowler has been a pleasant surprise (save for his double on the first last Sunday that may have cost me huge). All those guys are in play this week and should be top 25 finishers.
The stars here include last week's winner, Jim Furyk, but he doesn't play well here. Stenson, Goosen, Allenby, Villegas and the hot South African, Charl Schwartzel round out the international bigwigs. Stricker, Watney and Mahan are here from the American side. Of all those guys, Mahan, Watney, Allenby and Goosen are really the only guys with any positive trends on this course.
You want a sleeper? Pat Perez has a great scoring average at Bay Hill, and has three top tens in seven starts here.
Most talent
Mickelson
Stricker
Els
Goosen
Stricker
Course history
O' Hair
Mickelson
Z. Johnson
Watney
Els
Who's hot?
Furyk
Els
Villegas
Schwartzel
Choi
Who's not?
O' Hair
Z. Johnson
R. Moore
Love
Weekley
My picks
Mickelson
Els
Watney
Mahan
Schwartzel
Cheers,
TFAM
Tiger won here last year, but he is apparently spending his time at Augusta this week instead of Bay Hill. That opens it up for a host of others, most notably Phil Mickelson, who is a former champ here (1997) and has three other top fives at this course. Phil has been erratic this year, and actually hasn't played well in his last two turns here, but I like him this week, a lot.
My main man Sean O'Hair had a 2nd and a 3rd in his last two starts at Bay Hill. He also has frustrated the bejeezus out of me so far in 2010. I like his game, but hate the way he's playing. Speaking of hate, Vijay is out again this week, which is just killing the team I have where I can start six guys a week. I do like the way that others of that team are playing though. Els is here this week, and is a solid bet coming off the win at the WGC. Justin Rose seems to be finding his game too, and Rickie Fowler has been a pleasant surprise (save for his double on the first last Sunday that may have cost me huge). All those guys are in play this week and should be top 25 finishers.
The stars here include last week's winner, Jim Furyk, but he doesn't play well here. Stenson, Goosen, Allenby, Villegas and the hot South African, Charl Schwartzel round out the international bigwigs. Stricker, Watney and Mahan are here from the American side. Of all those guys, Mahan, Watney, Allenby and Goosen are really the only guys with any positive trends on this course.
You want a sleeper? Pat Perez has a great scoring average at Bay Hill, and has three top tens in seven starts here.
Most talent
Mickelson
Stricker
Els
Goosen
Stricker
Course history
O' Hair
Mickelson
Z. Johnson
Watney
Els
Who's hot?
Furyk
Els
Villegas
Schwartzel
Choi
Who's not?
O' Hair
Z. Johnson
R. Moore
Love
Weekley
My picks
Mickelson
Els
Watney
Mahan
Schwartzel
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Draft recap
So, I'm in this pseudo dynasty league that holds a 40 round megadraft once a year. Said occasion in 2010 was this past Saturday, and I'd like to tell you about it.
The first thing you need to know is that keepers are the norm in this league, and well over 100 guys were kepts anywhere between the 2nd and 26th round. The keeper policy is pretty straightforward. You can keep any player you want provided a) he has played in the majors and b) that you keep him four round earlier than the slot which you used to draft or keep the player the year before. You also cannot keep anyone in a round lower than 26. So, any guy you take in round 30-40 can be kept in round 26 (or, you can move guys up rounds to keep them if you have more than one keeper per round? Get it? No? Okay, we're moving on.
The team I co-own is defending a championship that was earned largely because of the stregth of our keepers (which were partially gathered two years ago, when we held a yearlong firesale to load up for a sustained run). This year, as you can see, our keepers are strong again.
Round 5 -- Verlander
Round 6 -- Bruce
Round 11 -- Rios
Round 14 -- Grienke
Round 15 -- Pedroia
Round 16 -- Cahill
Round 18 -- J. Upton
Round 19 -- G. Beckham
Round 24- Hughes
Round 25 -- Nunez
Round 26 -- Coghlan
There are a couple of head scratchers in there, I know. We kept Bruce because we thought he would be the best available in round six due to all the stars being kept. We also kept him becuase our man love for Bruuuuuuce knows no bounds. We had to keep Cahill, just trust me, not because we like him that much (though he's a nice post hype guy, but in the later rounds for sure), but because our league rules are more complicated than mapping the human genome. We actually acquired Nunez and Cahill in a package for nothing. In other words, "You can have Nunez at a good value if you take Cahill and his crappy kepper status off my hands." We were happy to do so.
Here is the rest of our draft (keepers in bold).
1 --1B Miguel Cabrera
2 --SP Felix Hernandez
3- OF Adam Dunn
4 --SP Josh Johnson
5 --SP Justin Verlander
6 --OF Jay Bruce
7 --OF Juan Pierre
7 --RP Fran. Rodriguez
8 --RP Francisco Cordero
9 --3B Chipper Jones
10 --SP Johnny Cueto
11 --OF Alex Rios
12 --OF Colby Rasmus
13 --SP Scott Kazmir
14 --SP Zack Greinke
15 --2B Dustin Pedroia
16 --SP Trevor Cahill
17 --1B Justin Smoak
18 --OF Justin Upton
19 --2B Gordon Beckham
20 --OF Cameron Maybin
21 --3B Brandon Wood
22 --C Jesus Montero
23 --OF Michael Brantley
24 --SP Phil Hughes
25 --RP Leo Nunez
26 --2B Chris Coghlan
27 --OF Sean Rodriguez
28 --SP Martin Perez
29 --RP J.J. Putz
30 --3B Lonnie Chisenhall
31 --SS Orlando Cabrera
32 --SP Dustin McGowan
33 --SP Chris Withrow
33 --SP Vicinte Padilla
34 --OF Chris Heisey
36 --SP Jake McGee
37 --OF Jordan Schafer
38 --OF Andrew Miller
39 --2B Clint Barmes
We loved getting Miggy with the 12th pick. I thought we'd have to settle for Holliday or Crawford. Both were taken before us. We wanted the big stats in the power cats, and we don't believe as much in positional scarcity. Miggy was much higher on my board. We have sketchy options at third (though I still believe in Larry) and short, but I'd MUCH rather take Orlando Cabrera (or any other stiff) in the 31st round than reach for Brandon Phillips at MI. How about Tejada in the 8th versus Cabrera in the 31st? That is why you don't reach just because you need to fill a position. Going back to the Bruce thing, the only guy I would have taken instead of Bruce with that 6th was Manny, who lasted until the middle of the round. We took Juan Pierre with a Demitrius Underwood bonus pick in the 7th (that we acquired via offseason trade) beacuse we needed speed and got sniped on BJ Upton in the third round. Other than that, we leaned heavily on keeping our farm stocked with young prospects who are ready to play. Of all the guys we took, Martin Perez, Lonnie Chisenhall and Jesus Montero are the guys we are crossing our fingers get the call. Montero is going to be a beast for us in the future if he can just play this year. We think Putz could get some saves this year and he is on a one year deal, so he could sign somewhere else to close in 2011. And yes, we have no catcher. I don't really value that position in one catcher leagues, and we'll just pick up a Ramon Hernandez, John Baker type when we put McGowan and McGee on the DL.
Obviously this is a very strong squad, mainly due to our keepers again, but I thought we drafted pretty well. What are your thoughts?
Cheers,
TFAM
The first thing you need to know is that keepers are the norm in this league, and well over 100 guys were kepts anywhere between the 2nd and 26th round. The keeper policy is pretty straightforward. You can keep any player you want provided a) he has played in the majors and b) that you keep him four round earlier than the slot which you used to draft or keep the player the year before. You also cannot keep anyone in a round lower than 26. So, any guy you take in round 30-40 can be kept in round 26 (or, you can move guys up rounds to keep them if you have more than one keeper per round? Get it? No? Okay, we're moving on.
The team I co-own is defending a championship that was earned largely because of the stregth of our keepers (which were partially gathered two years ago, when we held a yearlong firesale to load up for a sustained run). This year, as you can see, our keepers are strong again.
Round 5 -- Verlander
Round 6 -- Bruce
Round 11 -- Rios
Round 14 -- Grienke
Round 15 -- Pedroia
Round 16 -- Cahill
Round 18 -- J. Upton
Round 19 -- G. Beckham
Round 24- Hughes
Round 25 -- Nunez
Round 26 -- Coghlan
There are a couple of head scratchers in there, I know. We kept Bruce because we thought he would be the best available in round six due to all the stars being kept. We also kept him becuase our man love for Bruuuuuuce knows no bounds. We had to keep Cahill, just trust me, not because we like him that much (though he's a nice post hype guy, but in the later rounds for sure), but because our league rules are more complicated than mapping the human genome. We actually acquired Nunez and Cahill in a package for nothing. In other words, "You can have Nunez at a good value if you take Cahill and his crappy kepper status off my hands." We were happy to do so.
Here is the rest of our draft (keepers in bold).
1 --1B Miguel Cabrera
2 --SP Felix Hernandez
3- OF Adam Dunn
4 --SP Josh Johnson
5 --SP Justin Verlander
6 --OF Jay Bruce
7 --OF Juan Pierre
7 --RP Fran. Rodriguez
8 --RP Francisco Cordero
9 --3B Chipper Jones
10 --SP Johnny Cueto
11 --OF Alex Rios
12 --OF Colby Rasmus
13 --SP Scott Kazmir
14 --SP Zack Greinke
15 --2B Dustin Pedroia
16 --SP Trevor Cahill
17 --1B Justin Smoak
18 --OF Justin Upton
19 --2B Gordon Beckham
20 --OF Cameron Maybin
21 --3B Brandon Wood
22 --C Jesus Montero
23 --OF Michael Brantley
24 --SP Phil Hughes
25 --RP Leo Nunez
26 --2B Chris Coghlan
27 --OF Sean Rodriguez
28 --SP Martin Perez
29 --RP J.J. Putz
30 --3B Lonnie Chisenhall
31 --SS Orlando Cabrera
32 --SP Dustin McGowan
33 --SP Chris Withrow
33 --SP Vicinte Padilla
34 --OF Chris Heisey
36 --SP Jake McGee
37 --OF Jordan Schafer
38 --OF Andrew Miller
39 --2B Clint Barmes
We loved getting Miggy with the 12th pick. I thought we'd have to settle for Holliday or Crawford. Both were taken before us. We wanted the big stats in the power cats, and we don't believe as much in positional scarcity. Miggy was much higher on my board. We have sketchy options at third (though I still believe in Larry) and short, but I'd MUCH rather take Orlando Cabrera (or any other stiff) in the 31st round than reach for Brandon Phillips at MI. How about Tejada in the 8th versus Cabrera in the 31st? That is why you don't reach just because you need to fill a position. Going back to the Bruce thing, the only guy I would have taken instead of Bruce with that 6th was Manny, who lasted until the middle of the round. We took Juan Pierre with a Demitrius Underwood bonus pick in the 7th (that we acquired via offseason trade) beacuse we needed speed and got sniped on BJ Upton in the third round. Other than that, we leaned heavily on keeping our farm stocked with young prospects who are ready to play. Of all the guys we took, Martin Perez, Lonnie Chisenhall and Jesus Montero are the guys we are crossing our fingers get the call. Montero is going to be a beast for us in the future if he can just play this year. We think Putz could get some saves this year and he is on a one year deal, so he could sign somewhere else to close in 2011. And yes, we have no catcher. I don't really value that position in one catcher leagues, and we'll just pick up a Ramon Hernandez, John Baker type when we put McGowan and McGee on the DL.
Obviously this is a very strong squad, mainly due to our keepers again, but I thought we drafted pretty well. What are your thoughts?
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, March 22, 2010
Auction recap
So, as I said Thursday, both of my baseball selection gatherings were this weekend. Since there are many of you out there that may still have their drafts and auctions to come, I thought I'd share my feelings on the two events I took part in this past weekend. I'll do the auction (keeper) today and the draft (also keeper, with a hint of dynasty) tomorrow.
I did not like what I did in the auction yesterday.
It has been a long time since I've felt that way about a baseball auction, but it just didn;t work out for me. Let's start at the top. I kept Albert Pujols at $55. My other keepers were Hanley ($45), Lincy ($20), Kershaw ($15), Pedroia ($13), Rasmus ($6), and Heyward ($5). If we could have stopped right there, I'd be golden. However, I proceeded to get only one bargain during the whole auction (Chipper at $3) unless you count a bunch of crappy $1 closers. And, while I was overpaying left and right for guys I really liked like David Price ($12), Travis Snider ($5), and Rickie Weeks ($13), others were gobbling up Matt Holliday ($26), Jimmy Rollins ($25), David Wright ($36) and Carlos Lee ($15) for WAY less than they should have gone for.
I clearly miscalculated the market when it came to stars. What should happen is that the more stars that are kept at good values should increase the prices on the few reamining stars. What did happen was that the some of the owners with all the cash became gunshy quick, and the savvy guys with cash to burn (which wasn't me because of the stars I kept) absolutely killed it. Two teams left the auction with $20 of their $230 unspent. Think that extra $40 would have changed things around a bit? Yuck.
So, I'm left with my stars and a bunch of upside plays, which I like, but I have almost no stable influences other that the guys I kept. If my young guys go belly up, I'm in trouble. Here is what I did.
C Posada 4
1B Pujols 55
2B Pedroia 13
3B Chipper 3
SS Hanley 45
CI Loney 4
MI Weeks 13
OF Heyward 5
OF Rasmus 6
OF Reimold 4
OF Snider 5
OF Pierre 3
U CBY 1
P Lincecum 20
P Price 12
P Webb 3
P Kershaw 15
P Cueto 4
P Capps 1
P Dotel 1
P Nunez 1
Bench H. Bailey 1
Bench D. Jennings 1
Don't get me wrong, I love all the guys I got except for Brandon Webb (it's hard to pitch without a shoulder), but I was just crushed to see all kinds of high profile guys go for less than value.
Here were five other bargains (other than those I mentioned above)...
Slowey (3)
Coghlan (1)
Torii (9)
Alexei Ramirez (4)
Sheets (2) -- I'd still gamble on his potential.
And five overpays...
Berkman (22)
Y. Escobar (7)
A. Cabrera (9)
Howard (50) -- He was the only star that went for value, and he went over.
Montero (12)
Cheers,
TFAM
I did not like what I did in the auction yesterday.
It has been a long time since I've felt that way about a baseball auction, but it just didn;t work out for me. Let's start at the top. I kept Albert Pujols at $55. My other keepers were Hanley ($45), Lincy ($20), Kershaw ($15), Pedroia ($13), Rasmus ($6), and Heyward ($5). If we could have stopped right there, I'd be golden. However, I proceeded to get only one bargain during the whole auction (Chipper at $3) unless you count a bunch of crappy $1 closers. And, while I was overpaying left and right for guys I really liked like David Price ($12), Travis Snider ($5), and Rickie Weeks ($13), others were gobbling up Matt Holliday ($26), Jimmy Rollins ($25), David Wright ($36) and Carlos Lee ($15) for WAY less than they should have gone for.
I clearly miscalculated the market when it came to stars. What should happen is that the more stars that are kept at good values should increase the prices on the few reamining stars. What did happen was that the some of the owners with all the cash became gunshy quick, and the savvy guys with cash to burn (which wasn't me because of the stars I kept) absolutely killed it. Two teams left the auction with $20 of their $230 unspent. Think that extra $40 would have changed things around a bit? Yuck.
So, I'm left with my stars and a bunch of upside plays, which I like, but I have almost no stable influences other that the guys I kept. If my young guys go belly up, I'm in trouble. Here is what I did.
C Posada 4
1B Pujols 55
2B Pedroia 13
3B Chipper 3
SS Hanley 45
CI Loney 4
MI Weeks 13
OF Heyward 5
OF Rasmus 6
OF Reimold 4
OF Snider 5
OF Pierre 3
U CBY 1
P Lincecum 20
P Price 12
P Webb 3
P Kershaw 15
P Cueto 4
P Capps 1
P Dotel 1
P Nunez 1
Bench H. Bailey 1
Bench D. Jennings 1
Don't get me wrong, I love all the guys I got except for Brandon Webb (it's hard to pitch without a shoulder), but I was just crushed to see all kinds of high profile guys go for less than value.
Here were five other bargains (other than those I mentioned above)...
Slowey (3)
Coghlan (1)
Torii (9)
Alexei Ramirez (4)
Sheets (2) -- I'd still gamble on his potential.
And five overpays...
Berkman (22)
Y. Escobar (7)
A. Cabrera (9)
Howard (50) -- He was the only star that went for value, and he went over.
Montero (12)
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Fantasy baseball overall player rankings
I have no idea how far this list is going to go, it may be 20, it may get to 100, we'll see what happens. Note my biases in the rankings and adjust them if your biases differ in any way. I like young players with upside, I need K's from my pitchers, and I value big numbers more than positional scarcity. I may comment in sections, but I have a comment on every player in the positional rankings that you can find in my archives.
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez -- Wouldn't shock me to see him finish out of the top five. Speed is trending in the wrong direction, and average will be hard to duplicate. Plus, Hanley is prone to getting nicked up. Still, clear number two choice right now.
3. Chase Utley
4. Alex Rodriguez -- Utley's average gives him the edge, but it's close.
5. Ryan Braun -- Bankable stats across the board.
6. David Wright -- I think .320-25-100-100-20 is happening this year. He's pissed.
7. Evan Longoria -- Wright's average and speed wins out, but Evan is going to be a monster.
8. Miguel Cabrera -- The batting average separates him from the rest of the 1Bs. 3-8 is very close.
9. Tim Lincicum -- He and Halladay are so close.
10. Roy Halladay
11. Matt Kemp -- He needs to do it one more time to be the best of the best.
11. Prince Fielder
12. Mark Teixeira
13. Ryan Howard
14. Matt Holliday
15. Justin Upton
16. Joe Mauer
17. Felix Hernandez
18. Carl Crawford
19. Ian Kinsler -- He starts fast, Tulo starts slow.
20. Troy Tulowitzki
21. Grady Sizemore -- I believe in a bounceback.
22. Zack Grienke
23. Justin Verlander
24. Curtis Granderson
25. Dan Haren -- Also an incredibly fast starter.
26. Adrian Gonzalez
27. Pablo Sandoval
28. Jimmy Rollins
29. Kendry Morales
30. Justin Morneau
31. CC Sabathia
32. Derek Jeter
33. Adam Wainwright
34. Jon Lester
35. Dustin Pedroia
36. Jacoby Ellsbury -- Because I can find speed later. Expensive speed without power is dangerous. Come to think about it, Crawford may be a little high.
37. Mark Reynolds
38. Ichiro
39. Kevin Youkilis
40. Jose Reyes -- At some point, he has to be worth the gamble. If he missed only April, he's worth it here.
41. Ryan Zimmerman
42. Joey Votto
43. Adam Lind
44. Robinson Cano
45. Jason Bay
46. Johan Santana
47. Josh Johnson
48. Cliff Lee
49. Victor Martinez -- Value is better than this in a two catcher league...he may be 10-15 spots higher. McCann may be top 50 too in such a league.
50. S. Choo
I guess it is 50. For the rest of may rankings, you can see how I rank each guy at their respective positions. Good luck all. I have my two keeper drafts this weekend. The only player I own in both leagues heading into the weekend? Dustin Pedroia. One player I hope to own in both leagues by the end of the weekend? David Wright.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez -- Wouldn't shock me to see him finish out of the top five. Speed is trending in the wrong direction, and average will be hard to duplicate. Plus, Hanley is prone to getting nicked up. Still, clear number two choice right now.
3. Chase Utley
4. Alex Rodriguez -- Utley's average gives him the edge, but it's close.
5. Ryan Braun -- Bankable stats across the board.
6. David Wright -- I think .320-25-100-100-20 is happening this year. He's pissed.
7. Evan Longoria -- Wright's average and speed wins out, but Evan is going to be a monster.
8. Miguel Cabrera -- The batting average separates him from the rest of the 1Bs. 3-8 is very close.
9. Tim Lincicum -- He and Halladay are so close.
10. Roy Halladay
11. Matt Kemp -- He needs to do it one more time to be the best of the best.
11. Prince Fielder
12. Mark Teixeira
13. Ryan Howard
14. Matt Holliday
15. Justin Upton
16. Joe Mauer
17. Felix Hernandez
18. Carl Crawford
19. Ian Kinsler -- He starts fast, Tulo starts slow.
20. Troy Tulowitzki
21. Grady Sizemore -- I believe in a bounceback.
22. Zack Grienke
23. Justin Verlander
24. Curtis Granderson
25. Dan Haren -- Also an incredibly fast starter.
26. Adrian Gonzalez
27. Pablo Sandoval
28. Jimmy Rollins
29. Kendry Morales
30. Justin Morneau
31. CC Sabathia
32. Derek Jeter
33. Adam Wainwright
34. Jon Lester
35. Dustin Pedroia
36. Jacoby Ellsbury -- Because I can find speed later. Expensive speed without power is dangerous. Come to think about it, Crawford may be a little high.
37. Mark Reynolds
38. Ichiro
39. Kevin Youkilis
40. Jose Reyes -- At some point, he has to be worth the gamble. If he missed only April, he's worth it here.
41. Ryan Zimmerman
42. Joey Votto
43. Adam Lind
44. Robinson Cano
45. Jason Bay
46. Johan Santana
47. Josh Johnson
48. Cliff Lee
49. Victor Martinez -- Value is better than this in a two catcher league...he may be 10-15 spots higher. McCann may be top 50 too in such a league.
50. S. Choo
I guess it is 50. For the rest of may rankings, you can see how I rank each guy at their respective positions. Good luck all. I have my two keeper drafts this weekend. The only player I own in both leagues heading into the weekend? Dustin Pedroia. One player I hope to own in both leagues by the end of the weekend? David Wright.
Cheers,
TFAM
No love for Zambrano?
Aren't we just a couple of years away from Big Z going for $20+ in auction formats and being one of the first 15 pitchers off the board? Now, he's buried on every list, including my own. Why?
One reason is the WHIP, which has always been his achillies heel. It was a not so friendly 1.38 in 2009. Yet, his ERA has actually decreased now for two straight years. Really, it has? Yep, checked in at a respectable 3.77 last year, which is a number I'd take on the back end of my squad. Zambrano also still qualifies as a K guy, checking in at 8.9 K/9 in 2009.
You know, the more I think about it, I'd rather gamble on Zambrano than a lot of guys I ranked him below on my rankings. He has shown signs of injury, but that comes with the territory when you are filling out the back half of your rotation. As I have said before, if guys can't strike people out, they aren't even worth said gamble.
Anyway, looking at it today, I think I'd put Zambrano in the 37-46 range for SPs, a good 15-20 spots ahead of where I originally ranked him. That's not high enough to get too excited, but, if everyone is off of him, and it seems to be everyone is, you may be able to steal him late and extract some value.
Cheers,
TFAM
One reason is the WHIP, which has always been his achillies heel. It was a not so friendly 1.38 in 2009. Yet, his ERA has actually decreased now for two straight years. Really, it has? Yep, checked in at a respectable 3.77 last year, which is a number I'd take on the back end of my squad. Zambrano also still qualifies as a K guy, checking in at 8.9 K/9 in 2009.
You know, the more I think about it, I'd rather gamble on Zambrano than a lot of guys I ranked him below on my rankings. He has shown signs of injury, but that comes with the territory when you are filling out the back half of your rotation. As I have said before, if guys can't strike people out, they aren't even worth said gamble.
Anyway, looking at it today, I think I'd put Zambrano in the 37-46 range for SPs, a good 15-20 spots ahead of where I originally ranked him. That's not high enough to get too excited, but, if everyone is off of him, and it seems to be everyone is, you may be able to steal him late and extract some value.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Transitions Championship
The tour takes a bit of a breath this week, as the Transitions Championship in Tampa is a little bit of a lower profile event than most around this time of year. Next week, it's Bay Hill, then Houston (which is an event many top players play because...), which is followed by the Masters.
So, who can we look out for in Tampa? Vijay Singh and Steve Stricker are probably the favorites. Veej has been harnessing his spectacled days of late (and, how hard is is to find a picture of Vijay in glasses these days? It's like they've all been eradicated, was there a scandal I'm not aware of?), and Stricker is always a threat, and he's posted a T4 and T14 here the last two go arounds. Vijay has won here, BTW, in 2004.
After those two, Harrington is here, and he finished third last week at the WGC, and Ian Poulter is in the mix as well and I love him for 2010, but neither of those Euros has played this course before. Sergio isn't to be touched right now, and Jim Furyk really isn't playing great yet in 2010.
Retief Goosen (he has won here twice) is the defender and he is joined by past winners Sean O'Hair and KJ Choi (twice). All three of those guys are good plays this week, though Goosen isn't in form.
Other names of note in the field are up and coming Americans Rickie Fowler, Nick Watney, JB Holmes and Dustin Johnson, of which Watney is the only one with a decent history here.
Most talent
Stricker
Harrington
Poulter
Sergio
Furyk
Course History
Goosen
Choi
O'Hair
Stricker
Vijay
Who's hot?
Vijay
JB Holmes
Harrington
Stricker
Poulter
Who's not?
Sergio
Furyk
Toms
Scott
Glover
My picks
Vijay
Stricker
O'Hair
Choi
Fowler
Cheers,
TFAM
So, who can we look out for in Tampa? Vijay Singh and Steve Stricker are probably the favorites. Veej has been harnessing his spectacled days of late (and, how hard is is to find a picture of Vijay in glasses these days? It's like they've all been eradicated, was there a scandal I'm not aware of?), and Stricker is always a threat, and he's posted a T4 and T14 here the last two go arounds. Vijay has won here, BTW, in 2004.
After those two, Harrington is here, and he finished third last week at the WGC, and Ian Poulter is in the mix as well and I love him for 2010, but neither of those Euros has played this course before. Sergio isn't to be touched right now, and Jim Furyk really isn't playing great yet in 2010.
Retief Goosen (he has won here twice) is the defender and he is joined by past winners Sean O'Hair and KJ Choi (twice). All three of those guys are good plays this week, though Goosen isn't in form.
Other names of note in the field are up and coming Americans Rickie Fowler, Nick Watney, JB Holmes and Dustin Johnson, of which Watney is the only one with a decent history here.
Most talent
Stricker
Harrington
Poulter
Sergio
Furyk
Course History
Goosen
Choi
O'Hair
Stricker
Vijay
Who's hot?
Vijay
JB Holmes
Harrington
Stricker
Poulter
Who's not?
Sergio
Furyk
Toms
Scott
Glover
My picks
Vijay
Stricker
O'Hair
Choi
Fowler
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Madness
So, I may be riding streak of 20 or so years since I won a NCAA pool. As a matter of fact, even the year that I had Georgia Tech making a deep run as a four seed, I think my brother picked all four final four squads and took my money. Yes, it was a two person pool. Anyway, you want to know what I think? I have a funny feeling about Wisconsin (Big Ten's experience always shows well), I love BYU, I think Kentucky is going to disappoint, and as much as I tried, I can't find anyone that I feel good about beating Kansas. The Syracuse center killed it for me.
Breakout star? If KSU can beat BYU, it's the Clemente kid. I think that guy is fantastic.
Just the winners here...
Midwest Region
First round
Kansas
Northern Iowa
Maryland
Michigan St.
San Diego St.
Georgetown
Oklahoma St.
Ohio St.
Second Round
Kansas
Maryland
Georgetown
Ohio St.
Sweet 16
Kansas
Georgetown
Region Champ: Kansas
West Region
First Round
Syracuse
Florida St
UTEP
Vandy
Xavier
Pitt
BYU
Kansas St.
Second Round
Syracuse
UTEP
Pitt
BYU
Sweet 16
Syracuse
BYU
Region Champ: Syracuse
East Region
First round
Kentucky
Texas
Temple
Wisconsin
Marquette
New Mexico
Missou
West Virginia
Second Round
Kentucky
Wisconsin
New Mexico
West Virginia
Sweet 16
Wisconsin
West Virginia
Region Champ: Wisconsin
South Region
First Round
Duke
Cal
Texas A&M
Purdue
Notre Dame
Baylor
Richmond
Villanova
Second Round
Duke
Texas A&M
Baylor
Villanova
Sweet 16
Duke
Baylor
Region Champ: Baylor
Final Four
Kansas over Syracuse
Baylor over Wisconsin
Kansas 79, Baylor 68
Cheers,
TFAM
Breakout star? If KSU can beat BYU, it's the Clemente kid. I think that guy is fantastic.
Just the winners here...
Midwest Region
First round
Kansas
Northern Iowa
Maryland
Michigan St.
San Diego St.
Georgetown
Oklahoma St.
Ohio St.
Second Round
Kansas
Maryland
Georgetown
Ohio St.
Sweet 16
Kansas
Georgetown
Region Champ: Kansas
West Region
First Round
Syracuse
Florida St
UTEP
Vandy
Xavier
Pitt
BYU
Kansas St.
Second Round
Syracuse
UTEP
Pitt
BYU
Sweet 16
Syracuse
BYU
Region Champ: Syracuse
East Region
First round
Kentucky
Texas
Temple
Wisconsin
Marquette
New Mexico
Missou
West Virginia
Second Round
Kentucky
Wisconsin
New Mexico
West Virginia
Sweet 16
Wisconsin
West Virginia
Region Champ: Wisconsin
South Region
First Round
Duke
Cal
Texas A&M
Purdue
Notre Dame
Baylor
Richmond
Villanova
Second Round
Duke
Texas A&M
Baylor
Villanova
Sweet 16
Duke
Baylor
Region Champ: Baylor
Final Four
Kansas over Syracuse
Baylor over Wisconsin
Kansas 79, Baylor 68
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, March 15, 2010
Out of the Gate
More than any other sport, baseball can be a streaky game as far as stats go. The ebbs and flows of a season are very normal, and, in the end, most players put up numbers that were in the vicinity of what was projected of them at the beginning of the season. Some of these streaks certainly warrant our attention though. Today, let's focus on the guys who consistently start slower than they finish.
To be short, you don't want to draft a slow starter.
Think about it. If you have a good idea that a guy is going to be sluggish in April and May, you are picking a player in an auction or draft who is going to lose value immediatley after you take him. Why would you want to draft someone who is about to head into a prolonged slump? Sure, the numbers look the same at the end of the year, but, how many times are you so sick of a guy after two months of underperformance that you want to jettison him regardless of his likelihood to heat up? I see people selling slow starters in June and July in leagues EVERY YEAR. Why draft them then?
And yes, I think the same way about guys who start fast. Why not pick up some guys in the draft that are going to go up in value immediately? Think Justin Morneau and Ian Kinsler.
With that said...here are some guys who have a history of slow starts, and did the deed again in 2009. It's worth noting that Johan is a historical slow starter too, but he was great in April and May in 2009. Also, Rafael Furcal used to be notorious for not showing up until Memorial Day, but he has been more consistent over the last couple of years.
Slow Starters
T. Tulowitzki -- Always starts slow. .200 in April, .240 in May in '09 with five HR in the two months combined.
M. Teixeira -- .200 BA in April last year. Got cookin' faster than usual though in May.
R. Howard -- The prototype guy to deal for in June. Last year only differed because he had a decent April before crashing in May and June. April usually is slow too.
I. Suzuki -- Like Pedroia, Ichiro only hits under .300 in April.
D. Pedroia -- Career .271 in April, which is his only month under .300. Only two HR on June 30 in 2009.
CC Sabathia -- 5.03 April ERA for 2007-2009. One April win in '09.
D. Lee -- Broke out of this trend for one year in 2005, but form held in 2009. Lee was hitting just .248 with 5 (of his eventual 35) HR on May 31.
R. Nolasco -- Just horrendous in April and May for his career, ERA was 9.07 on May 22 last year.
A. Beltre -- He's hitting under .250 in April and May for the 2007-2009 period.
Did I miss anyone?
UPDATE: Yes, I did. Adam LaRoche.
Cheers,
TFAM
To be short, you don't want to draft a slow starter.
Think about it. If you have a good idea that a guy is going to be sluggish in April and May, you are picking a player in an auction or draft who is going to lose value immediatley after you take him. Why would you want to draft someone who is about to head into a prolonged slump? Sure, the numbers look the same at the end of the year, but, how many times are you so sick of a guy after two months of underperformance that you want to jettison him regardless of his likelihood to heat up? I see people selling slow starters in June and July in leagues EVERY YEAR. Why draft them then?
And yes, I think the same way about guys who start fast. Why not pick up some guys in the draft that are going to go up in value immediately? Think Justin Morneau and Ian Kinsler.
With that said...here are some guys who have a history of slow starts, and did the deed again in 2009. It's worth noting that Johan is a historical slow starter too, but he was great in April and May in 2009. Also, Rafael Furcal used to be notorious for not showing up until Memorial Day, but he has been more consistent over the last couple of years.
Slow Starters
T. Tulowitzki -- Always starts slow. .200 in April, .240 in May in '09 with five HR in the two months combined.
M. Teixeira -- .200 BA in April last year. Got cookin' faster than usual though in May.
R. Howard -- The prototype guy to deal for in June. Last year only differed because he had a decent April before crashing in May and June. April usually is slow too.
I. Suzuki -- Like Pedroia, Ichiro only hits under .300 in April.
D. Pedroia -- Career .271 in April, which is his only month under .300. Only two HR on June 30 in 2009.
CC Sabathia -- 5.03 April ERA for 2007-2009. One April win in '09.
D. Lee -- Broke out of this trend for one year in 2005, but form held in 2009. Lee was hitting just .248 with 5 (of his eventual 35) HR on May 31.
R. Nolasco -- Just horrendous in April and May for his career, ERA was 9.07 on May 22 last year.
A. Beltre -- He's hitting under .250 in April and May for the 2007-2009 period.
Did I miss anyone?
UPDATE: Yes, I did. Adam LaRoche.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Ranking the relievers
Relief pitching is quite the hot topic in fantasy baseball. Do we value it, how much? Do we punt saves altogther? Just how much is the Sandman worth?
I'm of the opinion that punting a category in a roto league is akin to trying to win Settlers of Catan without the largest army or longest road. In other words, start looking for that needle. In head-to-head formats, I still think you are better off with saves, but you don't necessarily have to leave the draft with them. You can acquire them throughout the year and as long as you are competitive there come playoff time (and your lack of relievers hasn't eliminated you already) you can compete. Keeping the difference in format in mind, I'm much more likely to pay the price for a RP in a roto league and have no probalem even starting the closer run if the time is right. It's all about value, and there is value in having the best relievers on your team.
Who are those relievers? This year, the bankable options are few and far between.
1. Mariano Rivera -- Easy call, you want guys who have zero chance of being replaced.
2. Jonathan Broxton -- The K's help
3. Jonathan Papelbon -- Should be good again in 2010, but now it gets dicey.
4. Francisco Cordero -- Call me crazy, but he is always healthy, and he'll have the job all year. Was fantastic in 2009.
5. Joakim Soria -- I worry about that shoulder from last year.
6. Heath Bell -- Likey to be traded, so saves after July 31 are no lock.
7. F. Rodriguez -- His arm scares me. Major risk, but, all the rest of these guys have risks. Better off grabbing cheaper options at this point.
8. J. Valverde -- Got the contract to close, but league and team switch is unknown variable.
9. L. Nunez -- I like his situation, major competition (Lindstrom) is gone.
10. D. Aardsma -- Can he do it again?
11. B. Fuentes -- Rodney lurks.
12. A. Bailey -- Wasn't highly touted, will the league catch up?
13. B. Wilson -- Has been a reliable source of saves for years. Fairly safe play, but will blow up occasionally and cause to to wonder what the crap you are doing with Brian Wilson on your team.
14. R. Soriano -- If I could guarantee health he'd be top five. If we had some ham we could have some ham and eggs, if we had some eggs.
15. B. Wagner -- Huge sleeper. He was good last September, now in Atlanta.
16. H. Street -- Already having injury issues. '09 was the peak, here comes the valley.
17. C. Qualls -- Now we are into the lets just draw a couple names out of a hat tier, they are all the same.
18. B. Jenks -- People have been hating since '06, yet he remains...
19. R. Franklin -- Stats were great, do you trust him? Could Jason Motte reappear? That would be fun.
20. F. Francisco -- Struggled with health in '09 second half.
21. T. Hoffman -- Has little left. Handcuff LaTroy if you have the roster space.
22. C. Marmol -- Sweet Lou can't stand the walks. Seems likely to be replaced.
23. M. Gonzalez -- The O's signed him to close.
24. O. Dotel -- I kind of like Dotel as a sleeper in the NL with the Pirates.
25. B. Lidge -- Not really an option for me.
26. B. Lyon -- He has Matt Lindstrom lurking, and he is Brandon Lyon.
27. M. Capps -- Drew Storen is on the come, they could split the saves for the year.
28. K. Gregg -- As could Gregg/Frasor/Downs.
29. M. Guerrier -- As could Guerrier et al in Minny.
30. K. Wood -- Which is still better than Kerry Wood! Chris Perez is likely to get some chances.
I don't rank middle relievers, as the leagues I play in don't really value them. Just make sure you know who the next guy in line for saves is for each of your closers and handcuff as needed if you have the roster space, particularily the ones mentioned toward the end of the list.
Cheers,
TFAM
I'm of the opinion that punting a category in a roto league is akin to trying to win Settlers of Catan without the largest army or longest road. In other words, start looking for that needle. In head-to-head formats, I still think you are better off with saves, but you don't necessarily have to leave the draft with them. You can acquire them throughout the year and as long as you are competitive there come playoff time (and your lack of relievers hasn't eliminated you already) you can compete. Keeping the difference in format in mind, I'm much more likely to pay the price for a RP in a roto league and have no probalem even starting the closer run if the time is right. It's all about value, and there is value in having the best relievers on your team.
Who are those relievers? This year, the bankable options are few and far between.
1. Mariano Rivera -- Easy call, you want guys who have zero chance of being replaced.
2. Jonathan Broxton -- The K's help
3. Jonathan Papelbon -- Should be good again in 2010, but now it gets dicey.
4. Francisco Cordero -- Call me crazy, but he is always healthy, and he'll have the job all year. Was fantastic in 2009.
5. Joakim Soria -- I worry about that shoulder from last year.
6. Heath Bell -- Likey to be traded, so saves after July 31 are no lock.
7. F. Rodriguez -- His arm scares me. Major risk, but, all the rest of these guys have risks. Better off grabbing cheaper options at this point.
8. J. Valverde -- Got the contract to close, but league and team switch is unknown variable.
9. L. Nunez -- I like his situation, major competition (Lindstrom) is gone.
10. D. Aardsma -- Can he do it again?
11. B. Fuentes -- Rodney lurks.
12. A. Bailey -- Wasn't highly touted, will the league catch up?
13. B. Wilson -- Has been a reliable source of saves for years. Fairly safe play, but will blow up occasionally and cause to to wonder what the crap you are doing with Brian Wilson on your team.
14. R. Soriano -- If I could guarantee health he'd be top five. If we had some ham we could have some ham and eggs, if we had some eggs.
15. B. Wagner -- Huge sleeper. He was good last September, now in Atlanta.
16. H. Street -- Already having injury issues. '09 was the peak, here comes the valley.
17. C. Qualls -- Now we are into the lets just draw a couple names out of a hat tier, they are all the same.
18. B. Jenks -- People have been hating since '06, yet he remains...
19. R. Franklin -- Stats were great, do you trust him? Could Jason Motte reappear? That would be fun.
20. F. Francisco -- Struggled with health in '09 second half.
21. T. Hoffman -- Has little left. Handcuff LaTroy if you have the roster space.
22. C. Marmol -- Sweet Lou can't stand the walks. Seems likely to be replaced.
23. M. Gonzalez -- The O's signed him to close.
24. O. Dotel -- I kind of like Dotel as a sleeper in the NL with the Pirates.
25. B. Lidge -- Not really an option for me.
26. B. Lyon -- He has Matt Lindstrom lurking, and he is Brandon Lyon.
27. M. Capps -- Drew Storen is on the come, they could split the saves for the year.
28. K. Gregg -- As could Gregg/Frasor/Downs.
29. M. Guerrier -- As could Guerrier et al in Minny.
30. K. Wood -- Which is still better than Kerry Wood! Chris Perez is likely to get some chances.
I don't rank middle relievers, as the leagues I play in don't really value them. Just make sure you know who the next guy in line for saves is for each of your closers and handcuff as needed if you have the roster space, particularily the ones mentioned toward the end of the list.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Don't sleep on Guerrier
So, I realize its two posts in a row on Twins players, and I do live in Minnesota, but this one is mandatory.
Many media folks are speculating that the Twins closer job is going to go to Jon Rauch now that Joe Nathan is cooked. Are we so sure about that?
If I know one thing about Ron Gardenhire it is that he is insanely loyal. See Punto, Nick. Being that that loyalty exists, why do we think Rauch is the automatic choice instead of Matt Guerrier? Guerrier has been with the Twins for years, and has done a pretty decent job in the eighth inning for the better part of his last two years. Gardenhire knows as well as anyone that the closer job is the pinnacle for all short relievers (due to the financial rewards that come with it), and I think he is going to give Guerrier the first shot at the gig because he likes him and he feels he owes him that opportunity. Gardy may like Rauch too, but Guerrier has been though the battles with the Twins for a longer period of time.
Now, it could be Rauch, it could be Mijares, and it could even be Liriano to fill the role. The fact is, even the Twins have little idea at this point who is going to be handed the ninth inning April 5. However, it would be wrong to cast Rauch as the favorite right now. If I had to pick a reliever for the Twins today, Guerrier would be the guy.
Cheers,
TFAM
Many media folks are speculating that the Twins closer job is going to go to Jon Rauch now that Joe Nathan is cooked. Are we so sure about that?
If I know one thing about Ron Gardenhire it is that he is insanely loyal. See Punto, Nick. Being that that loyalty exists, why do we think Rauch is the automatic choice instead of Matt Guerrier? Guerrier has been with the Twins for years, and has done a pretty decent job in the eighth inning for the better part of his last two years. Gardenhire knows as well as anyone that the closer job is the pinnacle for all short relievers (due to the financial rewards that come with it), and I think he is going to give Guerrier the first shot at the gig because he likes him and he feels he owes him that opportunity. Gardy may like Rauch too, but Guerrier has been though the battles with the Twins for a longer period of time.
Now, it could be Rauch, it could be Mijares, and it could even be Liriano to fill the role. The fact is, even the Twins have little idea at this point who is going to be handed the ninth inning April 5. However, it would be wrong to cast Rauch as the favorite right now. If I had to pick a reliever for the Twins today, Guerrier would be the guy.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
WGC-CA Championship
What is CA anyway? I find the name of this tournament even more bizarre than the Waste Management Open, at least the titale sponsor of that one had a lot of work to do at 16...
Anyway, this is a huge event this week, and many fantasy golf leagues have a lot riding on the CA, which is played at Doral. While this tournament has only been at Doral for three years, there was the Ford at Doral for years before that. When investigating the results from 2006 and earlier at the Ford, three names stuck out that will not be mentioned later. David Toms just tears up Doral apparently. If he was playing even slightly better I'd give him a real good chance at a top 10 this week. Angel Cabrera also plays well on this course, and you could do worse in leagues that required multiple guys, Lucas Glover too, though he has been down in 2010. I also like John Senden as a deep sleeper this week. He has a nice little history here as well.
Another deep sleeper is Soren Kjeldson (bless you). Kjeldson has a T7 and an 11th in his past two turns here at Doral.
One name that need not be mentioned as a pick this week is Tiger of course, but it is worth noting that he has brought the blue montser to its knees over the years.
If we just look at 2007-2009, Jim Furyk has the best record here with top fives each of the last two years. Lefty also warrants consideration as the defender (he beat Nick Watney by one in 2009), and you have to love the roll that Villegas is on right now. He also plays well at Doral, so he will be a very popular pick this week, I'm sure. Geoff Ogilvy has a win here too.
Really, when it comes to WGC events, they are so wide open, becuase almost all the top players are here. Ernie and Vijay have played well at this event, as have Goosen and Stricker, who is red hot and has a 6 and 13 in the last two years here. Paul Casey is playing great, and I also love Westwood, but my pick is Ian Poulter, who I feel is ready to breakout in a big way in 2010 after the WGC win at the match play. You know who else is going to breakout still in 2010? Sean O'Hair. He could be a factor here.
Most Talent
1. Mickelson
2. McIlroy?
3. Casey
4. Harrington
5. Stricker
Course History
1. Toms
2. Furyk
3. Ogilvy
4. Villegas
5. Stricker
Who's Hot?
1. Villegas
2. Stricker
3. Casey
4. Westwood
5. Kim
Who's Not?
1. Glover
2. Scott
3. Mickelson
4. Toms
5. Furyk
My Picks
1. Poulter
2. Villegas
3. Stricker
4. Casey
5. O' Hair
Cheers,
TFAM
Anyway, this is a huge event this week, and many fantasy golf leagues have a lot riding on the CA, which is played at Doral. While this tournament has only been at Doral for three years, there was the Ford at Doral for years before that. When investigating the results from 2006 and earlier at the Ford, three names stuck out that will not be mentioned later. David Toms just tears up Doral apparently. If he was playing even slightly better I'd give him a real good chance at a top 10 this week. Angel Cabrera also plays well on this course, and you could do worse in leagues that required multiple guys, Lucas Glover too, though he has been down in 2010. I also like John Senden as a deep sleeper this week. He has a nice little history here as well.
Another deep sleeper is Soren Kjeldson (bless you). Kjeldson has a T7 and an 11th in his past two turns here at Doral.
One name that need not be mentioned as a pick this week is Tiger of course, but it is worth noting that he has brought the blue montser to its knees over the years.
If we just look at 2007-2009, Jim Furyk has the best record here with top fives each of the last two years. Lefty also warrants consideration as the defender (he beat Nick Watney by one in 2009), and you have to love the roll that Villegas is on right now. He also plays well at Doral, so he will be a very popular pick this week, I'm sure. Geoff Ogilvy has a win here too.
Really, when it comes to WGC events, they are so wide open, becuase almost all the top players are here. Ernie and Vijay have played well at this event, as have Goosen and Stricker, who is red hot and has a 6 and 13 in the last two years here. Paul Casey is playing great, and I also love Westwood, but my pick is Ian Poulter, who I feel is ready to breakout in a big way in 2010 after the WGC win at the match play. You know who else is going to breakout still in 2010? Sean O'Hair. He could be a factor here.
Most Talent
1. Mickelson
2. McIlroy?
3. Casey
4. Harrington
5. Stricker
Course History
1. Toms
2. Furyk
3. Ogilvy
4. Villegas
5. Stricker
Who's Hot?
1. Villegas
2. Stricker
3. Casey
4. Westwood
5. Kim
Who's Not?
1. Glover
2. Scott
3. Mickelson
4. Toms
5. Furyk
My Picks
1. Poulter
2. Villegas
3. Stricker
4. Casey
5. O' Hair
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, March 8, 2010
Twin Killers
Quickly, a few rites of spring. Thinking about planing some grass, driving around with no wiper fluid, ducks in the backyard (you know you have drainage issues when you see a few mallards just paddling laong in the lake that has formed outside the window), and baseball players speaking as if this will be the year.
"I'm in the best shape of my life"
"My arm feels better than it has in years"
"He looks like he's really grown up"
I just get tired of hearing so many glorious statements in March about guys who are going to really put it together this year that, for one reason or another, haven't done so in the past. This year, we're hearing great things about Delmon Young ("he's lost weight", "he seems to be more mature") and Francisco Liriano ("he looked great in winter ball", "his slider looks like it did in 2006"). Whatever. Wake me when a svelte figure improves your eye at the plate, and when the Santo Domingo turns into the Bronx. The data on these guys is what we have to look at, and to be honest, Delmon and Francisco have teased us before, but niether has even been fantasy relevant since 2006. Think about that. That is four years ago. Now I'm suppsed to invest a mid round pick or five bucks in my auction on someone who can't hit a line drive because he is eating one less meal a day?
I like upside as much as anyone (and I'd love for DY and Franke to break out), but find said upside plays in youth and stats. Close your ears and ingore what people are saying about themsleves or their own players. You think that information isn't biased?
When it comes to your draft, lay off Delmon and Liriano. You'd be better off with Colby Rasmus and Mat Latos.
Cheers,
TFAM
"I'm in the best shape of my life"
"My arm feels better than it has in years"
"He looks like he's really grown up"
I just get tired of hearing so many glorious statements in March about guys who are going to really put it together this year that, for one reason or another, haven't done so in the past. This year, we're hearing great things about Delmon Young ("he's lost weight", "he seems to be more mature") and Francisco Liriano ("he looked great in winter ball", "his slider looks like it did in 2006"). Whatever. Wake me when a svelte figure improves your eye at the plate, and when the Santo Domingo turns into the Bronx. The data on these guys is what we have to look at, and to be honest, Delmon and Francisco have teased us before, but niether has even been fantasy relevant since 2006. Think about that. That is four years ago. Now I'm suppsed to invest a mid round pick or five bucks in my auction on someone who can't hit a line drive because he is eating one less meal a day?
I like upside as much as anyone (and I'd love for DY and Franke to break out), but find said upside plays in youth and stats. Close your ears and ingore what people are saying about themsleves or their own players. You think that information isn't biased?
When it comes to your draft, lay off Delmon and Liriano. You'd be better off with Colby Rasmus and Mat Latos.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Ranking the starting pitchers
As I stated with my ranking of the outfielders, I'm a firm believer that fantasy leagues are won with outfielders and starting pitchers. These two areas are where bargains are easy to find, and those bargains will carry you to victory. In the first of two leagues I won last year, my starting staff was comprised of Grienke, Felix, Verlander, Lackey, Ubaldo, and Matt Cain. The team dominated the pitching cats, and had enough offense to win. In the other, my staff was Lincy, Gallardo, Billingsley and Kershaw, which was a staff that carried me all year, leaked oil at the end, and was rescued by Mr. Pujols and Mr. Holliday, who carried me to victory in the fantasy playoffs (along with a nice little push by Drew Stubbs...love Stubbs this year). Anyway, as with outfielders, you have to pck and choose wisely with SPs, and you will see my rankings are weighted heavily toward Ks. I do not take pitchers whose K/9 is anywhere below 7. Strikeout pitchers wins leagues.
1. T. Lincecum -- Easy choice. Safest play of anyone outside of Pujols, I think.
2. R. Halladay -- Wasn't great late last year, but should thrive in NL.
3. F. Hernandez -- No reason not to like him, Cy Young?
4. Z. Grienke -- Don't be scared by KC. Chasing wins is a mistake. Zack delivers the goods.
5. J. Verlander -- Led majors with 269 Ks.
6. D. Haren -- Sick WHIP and K's have increased every year. Halladay and Haren are close, the second tier ends here for me...top six are true aces.
7. CC Sabathia -- Struggles early. I'll pass and try and buy low in May.
8. A. Wainwright -- He and Lester are close, I'll opt for the guy who doesn't pitch in AL East.
9. J. Lester -- 225 K, can be an ace if he starts well.
10. J. Santana -- I still believe and think the elbow surgery may help. Can't argue with ballpark.
11. J. Johnson -- What's not to like? Five cat contibutor.
12. C. Lee -- I just get a little leary of guys changing teams, but Lee should be good in Seattle. I won't take him though.
13. Y. Gallardo -- I love the K's, but he can get wild.
14. C. Carpenter -- Health questions remain for me, but 25 starts keeps him in top 15, maybe top 10.
15. J. Beckett -- I didn't think he had a good year. Still posted 17 W, 199 K, 3.86, 1.19.
16. C. Kershaw -- Love Kershaw this year. He could be top 10 in 2011. Innings and K's will increase.
17. C. Hamels -- Third tier starts here. These guys are number two guys at best, and would be great threes. Questions for all of them. Hamels can and should rebound.
18. M. Cain -- 2.89, 1.18 may have been a bit lucky, but even a dropoff is okay with me. Safe stats here.
19. T. Hanson -- Will he get the innings? Strikouts and ratios should be great. Upside from here.
20. U. Jimenez -- Love everything about him except the innings. He was worked hard in a lot of starts last year. I owned him, and followed him closely. He is easy top 15 if he stays healthy, but of the non-obvious injury guys, he's the most likely to break down, in my book.
21. M. Garza -- I love Garza this year.
22. J. Vazquez -- I wrote all you need to know here. Stay away.
23. J. Lackey -- He scares me too. Angels didn't go out of their way to keep him.
24. R. Nolasco -- Okay, all these guys scare me until further notice. For me, you have to get at least two from the top 21, and three would be best. Then, sit it our for a while until upside plays late.
25. B. Anderson -- He can be had later than this, but imprssive stats for a rookie.
26. J. Peavy -- Does anyone think he has some left in the tank? I hate the move to the AL, and would trade him in May if I owned him.
27. D. Price -- Another guy you can get a little later than this, but I'd rather have his upside over a guy like Scott Baker anyday.
28. AJ Burnett -- At least the Ks will be there.
29. Jered Weaver -- Was surprisingly good in '09 across the board, 16 W, 174 K, 3.75, 1.24.
30. B. Webb -- Injury news already making Webb a bad gamble again.
31. R. Porcello -- Scary ends here, now upside plays are worth it. I like Porcello a lot. If his K rate rises to his minor league levels, he's a stud.
32. M. Scherzer -- He gets the K's, but his league change is scary, ok I lied.
33. J. Cueto -- Really, it's gamble on upside time, and Cueto has a little post hype sleepers status.
34. J. Jurrjens -- Not enough Ks for me (152).
35. S. Kazmir -- He goes from AL East to AL West. 2010 will tell us everything we need to know.
36. C. Buchholz -- He is very up and down, but worth a gamble in the back half of your staff.
37. R. Oswalt -- The poster child of a guy I won't own. Stats have dropped very year since 2005.
38. W. Rodriguez -- The one young guy I've never even considered. Why do people like him again?
39. R. Harden -- I'm over him, Ks are nice, but injuries and stats are trending the wrong way.
40. C. Billingsley -- Speaking of guys I'm over, he almost bled my team to death down the stretch.
41. E. Jackson -- Change of leagues should be good...so should Padres and Giants lineups.
42. M. Latos -- He is going to win a spot and is the Padres current #1, forget about future.
43. W. Davis -- Another young guy to gamble on. I love the Rays this year.
44. K. Slowey -- I like him more than Baker, which is apparently not the popular opinion.
45. B. Sheets -- Enjoy the starts he makes, DL guys aren't that bad at this point.
46. J. Shields -- Stats are trending in the wrong direction. I'll only take him late.
47. S. Baker -- Way too inconsistent.
48. T. Hudson -- Where is the upside. The problem with drafting guys like Hudson is that they suck for you all year and you have a hard time cutting them because of their name.
49. J. Danks -- I liked him a lot more before a worthless 2009.
50. B. Matusz -- I'd like him a lot more if he didn't play in Baltimore. More of a 2011 breakout.
51. S. Strasburg -- Where to rank him? Safe to say he's in the top 35 once he gets the call.
52. S. Feldman -- I believe in the stats, just no Ks because his cutter is his weapon.
53. H. Kuroda -- Safe play, should be very average if that is what you like.
54. H. Bailey -- His September stats were great, but can he carry that over? I wouldn't count on him as anything more than an upside flier.
55. E. Santana -- Just hasn't been the same guy since Tommy John.
56. B. Myers -- I like the change of scenery for Myers. Could surprise.
57. P. Hughes -- He'll win the job, can he carry bullpen success to rotation? I love Hughes, but am worried about him settling in.
58. F. Liriano -- The ultimate wild card. Upside is huge, and probably makes him worth a pick here. I still need to see it in games though.
59. J. Sanchez -- How much do you need the Ks? Enough to wreck your WHIP?
60. C. Zambrano -- His stats are trending in the wrong direction. Let someone else deal with him.
61. A. Sanchez -- Call me a believer. He finished strong enough for one more look.
62. J. Pineiro -- No Ks and a switch to the AL, no thans (see, no Ks).
63. E. Bedard -- Enjoy the 15 starts. Anything more would be a shocker.
64. T. Cahill -- Probably overhyped in '09, underhyped in 2010. Breakout possible, but K's need to be there for value.
65. B. Morrow -- He has the K potential, but has never lived up to hype.
66. D. Matsuzaka -- WHIP just kills his value.
67. C. Pavano -- Call me crazy, I can see sub 4 ERA in 2010.
68. C. Richard -- Only positive is Petco. Still, ERA under 4 has value.
69. J. Masterson -- He gets one more year, and about two starts, before he is free agent fodder.
70. G. Floyd -- I'm just not a fan, no upside.
71. M. Parra -- Upside K gamble on former top prospect.
72. D. Holland -- Another former top prospect battling for a spot in Rangers rotation. Check on his status in late March.
73. D. McGowan -- He'll start the year on the DL, which should allow you to get him cheaply. Jordan Zimmerman also starts of the DL, but isn't going to be ready until late in the year. Tommy John crushed his value.
74. A. Pettitte -- He never really helps, but may win some games.
75. J. Chamberlain -- I think he's destined for the pen.
Obviously there are a lot of guys I just left off. De La Rosa, Buehrle, Saunders, Harang, Wolf, Lowe, Lilly, Happ, etc. I just don't think anyone not on the list is going to be worth drafting. You can add guys all the time who can do what they do, and really, you may as well add the last 10 guys on the list to that category as well. Only about four starters can be permanent on your roster. The last two starters will change all year long. As far as propects go, Stras, Matusz and Davis made the list, and Neftali Feliz would have too if I knew he would start. Keep an eye on him. After that, the heralded Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Drabek and Jeremy Hellickson are likely to get the call at some point, and Martin Perez and Christian Frederich are two lefties with high strikeout upsides that could see action later in the year, but that would only be if everything breaks right.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. T. Lincecum -- Easy choice. Safest play of anyone outside of Pujols, I think.
2. R. Halladay -- Wasn't great late last year, but should thrive in NL.
3. F. Hernandez -- No reason not to like him, Cy Young?
4. Z. Grienke -- Don't be scared by KC. Chasing wins is a mistake. Zack delivers the goods.
5. J. Verlander -- Led majors with 269 Ks.
6. D. Haren -- Sick WHIP and K's have increased every year. Halladay and Haren are close, the second tier ends here for me...top six are true aces.
7. CC Sabathia -- Struggles early. I'll pass and try and buy low in May.
8. A. Wainwright -- He and Lester are close, I'll opt for the guy who doesn't pitch in AL East.
9. J. Lester -- 225 K, can be an ace if he starts well.
10. J. Santana -- I still believe and think the elbow surgery may help. Can't argue with ballpark.
11. J. Johnson -- What's not to like? Five cat contibutor.
12. C. Lee -- I just get a little leary of guys changing teams, but Lee should be good in Seattle. I won't take him though.
13. Y. Gallardo -- I love the K's, but he can get wild.
14. C. Carpenter -- Health questions remain for me, but 25 starts keeps him in top 15, maybe top 10.
15. J. Beckett -- I didn't think he had a good year. Still posted 17 W, 199 K, 3.86, 1.19.
16. C. Kershaw -- Love Kershaw this year. He could be top 10 in 2011. Innings and K's will increase.
17. C. Hamels -- Third tier starts here. These guys are number two guys at best, and would be great threes. Questions for all of them. Hamels can and should rebound.
18. M. Cain -- 2.89, 1.18 may have been a bit lucky, but even a dropoff is okay with me. Safe stats here.
19. T. Hanson -- Will he get the innings? Strikouts and ratios should be great. Upside from here.
20. U. Jimenez -- Love everything about him except the innings. He was worked hard in a lot of starts last year. I owned him, and followed him closely. He is easy top 15 if he stays healthy, but of the non-obvious injury guys, he's the most likely to break down, in my book.
21. M. Garza -- I love Garza this year.
22. J. Vazquez -- I wrote all you need to know here. Stay away.
23. J. Lackey -- He scares me too. Angels didn't go out of their way to keep him.
24. R. Nolasco -- Okay, all these guys scare me until further notice. For me, you have to get at least two from the top 21, and three would be best. Then, sit it our for a while until upside plays late.
25. B. Anderson -- He can be had later than this, but imprssive stats for a rookie.
26. J. Peavy -- Does anyone think he has some left in the tank? I hate the move to the AL, and would trade him in May if I owned him.
27. D. Price -- Another guy you can get a little later than this, but I'd rather have his upside over a guy like Scott Baker anyday.
28. AJ Burnett -- At least the Ks will be there.
29. Jered Weaver -- Was surprisingly good in '09 across the board, 16 W, 174 K, 3.75, 1.24.
30. B. Webb -- Injury news already making Webb a bad gamble again.
31. R. Porcello -- Scary ends here, now upside plays are worth it. I like Porcello a lot. If his K rate rises to his minor league levels, he's a stud.
32. M. Scherzer -- He gets the K's, but his league change is scary, ok I lied.
33. J. Cueto -- Really, it's gamble on upside time, and Cueto has a little post hype sleepers status.
34. J. Jurrjens -- Not enough Ks for me (152).
35. S. Kazmir -- He goes from AL East to AL West. 2010 will tell us everything we need to know.
36. C. Buchholz -- He is very up and down, but worth a gamble in the back half of your staff.
37. R. Oswalt -- The poster child of a guy I won't own. Stats have dropped very year since 2005.
38. W. Rodriguez -- The one young guy I've never even considered. Why do people like him again?
39. R. Harden -- I'm over him, Ks are nice, but injuries and stats are trending the wrong way.
40. C. Billingsley -- Speaking of guys I'm over, he almost bled my team to death down the stretch.
41. E. Jackson -- Change of leagues should be good...so should Padres and Giants lineups.
42. M. Latos -- He is going to win a spot and is the Padres current #1, forget about future.
43. W. Davis -- Another young guy to gamble on. I love the Rays this year.
44. K. Slowey -- I like him more than Baker, which is apparently not the popular opinion.
45. B. Sheets -- Enjoy the starts he makes, DL guys aren't that bad at this point.
46. J. Shields -- Stats are trending in the wrong direction. I'll only take him late.
47. S. Baker -- Way too inconsistent.
48. T. Hudson -- Where is the upside. The problem with drafting guys like Hudson is that they suck for you all year and you have a hard time cutting them because of their name.
49. J. Danks -- I liked him a lot more before a worthless 2009.
50. B. Matusz -- I'd like him a lot more if he didn't play in Baltimore. More of a 2011 breakout.
51. S. Strasburg -- Where to rank him? Safe to say he's in the top 35 once he gets the call.
52. S. Feldman -- I believe in the stats, just no Ks because his cutter is his weapon.
53. H. Kuroda -- Safe play, should be very average if that is what you like.
54. H. Bailey -- His September stats were great, but can he carry that over? I wouldn't count on him as anything more than an upside flier.
55. E. Santana -- Just hasn't been the same guy since Tommy John.
56. B. Myers -- I like the change of scenery for Myers. Could surprise.
57. P. Hughes -- He'll win the job, can he carry bullpen success to rotation? I love Hughes, but am worried about him settling in.
58. F. Liriano -- The ultimate wild card. Upside is huge, and probably makes him worth a pick here. I still need to see it in games though.
59. J. Sanchez -- How much do you need the Ks? Enough to wreck your WHIP?
60. C. Zambrano -- His stats are trending in the wrong direction. Let someone else deal with him.
61. A. Sanchez -- Call me a believer. He finished strong enough for one more look.
62. J. Pineiro -- No Ks and a switch to the AL, no thans (see, no Ks).
63. E. Bedard -- Enjoy the 15 starts. Anything more would be a shocker.
64. T. Cahill -- Probably overhyped in '09, underhyped in 2010. Breakout possible, but K's need to be there for value.
65. B. Morrow -- He has the K potential, but has never lived up to hype.
66. D. Matsuzaka -- WHIP just kills his value.
67. C. Pavano -- Call me crazy, I can see sub 4 ERA in 2010.
68. C. Richard -- Only positive is Petco. Still, ERA under 4 has value.
69. J. Masterson -- He gets one more year, and about two starts, before he is free agent fodder.
70. G. Floyd -- I'm just not a fan, no upside.
71. M. Parra -- Upside K gamble on former top prospect.
72. D. Holland -- Another former top prospect battling for a spot in Rangers rotation. Check on his status in late March.
73. D. McGowan -- He'll start the year on the DL, which should allow you to get him cheaply. Jordan Zimmerman also starts of the DL, but isn't going to be ready until late in the year. Tommy John crushed his value.
74. A. Pettitte -- He never really helps, but may win some games.
75. J. Chamberlain -- I think he's destined for the pen.
Obviously there are a lot of guys I just left off. De La Rosa, Buehrle, Saunders, Harang, Wolf, Lowe, Lilly, Happ, etc. I just don't think anyone not on the list is going to be worth drafting. You can add guys all the time who can do what they do, and really, you may as well add the last 10 guys on the list to that category as well. Only about four starters can be permanent on your roster. The last two starters will change all year long. As far as propects go, Stras, Matusz and Davis made the list, and Neftali Feliz would have too if I knew he would start. Keep an eye on him. After that, the heralded Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Drabek and Jeremy Hellickson are likely to get the call at some point, and Martin Perez and Christian Frederich are two lefties with high strikeout upsides that could see action later in the year, but that would only be if everything breaks right.
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, March 5, 2010
Friday Five
I wrote a couple months ago about Tiger Woods, with my main points being, he's coming back, and he is very likely to do so before Augusta. I'm still in that mindset, and very hopeful (though not quite as sure), that we'll be seeing Eldrick on that second weekend in April. Why so hopeful? I just want to watch the man play golf again. I'll let the Five explain...
Steve Scott wasn't the first to see this fist pump, but it was the first time I'd seen it, when Tiger came back from being five down in the morning and two down with three to play. Of course, one of those three was the 17th at Pumpkin Ridge. It's at the 2:10 mark of this clip.
This insane 8 iron last year at Firestone was played into a false front tiered greeen where long, short and right were a problem. Not for Tiger though. Harrington made 8. I can't even birdie this hole on the video game.
I love the crowd shots in this incredible clip of his ace at 16 in Phoenix. To be able to do this in front of that crowd. Well, it must be Tiger.
I remember watching this moment, which Roger Maltbie called, "Better than most". You know who Tiger played with that Saturday in 2001? Mickelson, who wilted away, going 72-77 on the weekend in the face of Tiger's 66-67.
Lanny and Verne couldn't believe their eyes in 2005. Neither could Chris DiMarco, who lost to Tiger in a playoff that day.
Cheers,
TFAM
Steve Scott wasn't the first to see this fist pump, but it was the first time I'd seen it, when Tiger came back from being five down in the morning and two down with three to play. Of course, one of those three was the 17th at Pumpkin Ridge. It's at the 2:10 mark of this clip.
This insane 8 iron last year at Firestone was played into a false front tiered greeen where long, short and right were a problem. Not for Tiger though. Harrington made 8. I can't even birdie this hole on the video game.
I love the crowd shots in this incredible clip of his ace at 16 in Phoenix. To be able to do this in front of that crowd. Well, it must be Tiger.
I remember watching this moment, which Roger Maltbie called, "Better than most". You know who Tiger played with that Saturday in 2001? Mickelson, who wilted away, going 72-77 on the weekend in the face of Tiger's 66-67.
Lanny and Verne couldn't believe their eyes in 2005. Neither could Chris DiMarco, who lost to Tiger in a playoff that day.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Ranking the designated hitters
Let's face it, the thought of drafting a designated hitter is about as appealing as hitting a designated drafter. The DH position really just sucks the life out of your team, as these are guys that will only qualify at the utility position and therefore cripple your flexibility. So, this is going to be short and sweet, and I'll go until I cannot see any reason to draft someone.
1. V. Guerrero -- I think the switch to Arlington will actually help Vlad top 20 HR, and he should still hit for a decent avergae, say .290 +. Therefore, he has a tiny amount of upsdie, which is more than you can say for the other two. Still, he is a late round flier type.
2. H. Matsui -- Only because there are rumors the halos may try to work him in the OF. The ballpark switch hurts here.
3. D. Ortiz -- His stats aren't going to be better than the .238-28-99 he put up last year. You can get that from a lot of players, like Russell Branyan, for instance.
That's it. Thome won't play enough, Kubel is OF eligible. Who else do you want? Travis Hafner? Ken Griffey? No thanks.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. V. Guerrero -- I think the switch to Arlington will actually help Vlad top 20 HR, and he should still hit for a decent avergae, say .290 +. Therefore, he has a tiny amount of upsdie, which is more than you can say for the other two. Still, he is a late round flier type.
2. H. Matsui -- Only because there are rumors the halos may try to work him in the OF. The ballpark switch hurts here.
3. D. Ortiz -- His stats aren't going to be better than the .238-28-99 he put up last year. You can get that from a lot of players, like Russell Branyan, for instance.
That's it. Thome won't play enough, Kubel is OF eligible. Who else do you want? Travis Hafner? Ken Griffey? No thanks.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Honda Classic
The British are coming!
While many U.S. stars are choosing to sit this one out as they get ready for next week's WGC event at Doral, the Euros are out in full force thie week at the Honda Classic. Lee Westwood is the highest ranked player in the field, and he'll be joined by Paul Casey, Padraig Harrington, Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia from across the pond. McIlroy tied for 13th here a year ago and Casey and Garcia played well at the WGC.
One thing to know whn scouting players for the Honda is that they have only been playing the tournament at its current location (PGA National) since 2007. All other tournament history is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned.
YE Yang is going to be a popular pick here this week as he is the defender and seems to be on form after his Sunday run to 3rd last weekend in Phoenix. I'm skeptical though....he didn't play great outside of a few holes on Sunday. John Rollins finished second last year in his only appearance at the event since 2007.
Two sleepers this week are Scott Piercy and Alex Cejka. Piercy finished T5 a year ago (nd T8 in Phoenix last week) and Cejka has a T13 and a T7 in the last two years. However, this tournament probably comes down to these three favorties. Ernie Els won two years ago and is playing well right now. I really like his chances this week and this year from here on out. Camilo Villegas has had two strong weeks in a row and lost in a playoff here in 2007. He usually plays well in Florida. Finally, Robert Allenby has the most consistent record at the National course in the last three years with at T5, T4, and T5 over that span. With the way he is playing right now and that record to fall back on, it would be really hard to imagine him finishing out of the top 10. I also really like Tim Clark this week, he's playing well, and the course isn't excpetionally long. Hey, I always like Tim Clark, it seems he is always in the mix.
Most talent
1. McIlroy
2. Westwood
3. Els
4. Harrington
5. Garcia
Course history
1. Allenby
2. Villegas
3. Els
4. Yang
5. Wi
On form
1. Villegas
2. Allenby
3. Casey
4. Fowler
5. Els
Off form
1. V. Singh
2. Harrington
3. J. Leonard
4. T. Immelman
5. B. Weekley
Picks
1. Allenby
2. Westwood
3. Els
4. McIlroy
5. Clark
Cheers,
TFAM
While many U.S. stars are choosing to sit this one out as they get ready for next week's WGC event at Doral, the Euros are out in full force thie week at the Honda Classic. Lee Westwood is the highest ranked player in the field, and he'll be joined by Paul Casey, Padraig Harrington, Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia from across the pond. McIlroy tied for 13th here a year ago and Casey and Garcia played well at the WGC.
One thing to know whn scouting players for the Honda is that they have only been playing the tournament at its current location (PGA National) since 2007. All other tournament history is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned.
YE Yang is going to be a popular pick here this week as he is the defender and seems to be on form after his Sunday run to 3rd last weekend in Phoenix. I'm skeptical though....he didn't play great outside of a few holes on Sunday. John Rollins finished second last year in his only appearance at the event since 2007.
Two sleepers this week are Scott Piercy and Alex Cejka. Piercy finished T5 a year ago (nd T8 in Phoenix last week) and Cejka has a T13 and a T7 in the last two years. However, this tournament probably comes down to these three favorties. Ernie Els won two years ago and is playing well right now. I really like his chances this week and this year from here on out. Camilo Villegas has had two strong weeks in a row and lost in a playoff here in 2007. He usually plays well in Florida. Finally, Robert Allenby has the most consistent record at the National course in the last three years with at T5, T4, and T5 over that span. With the way he is playing right now and that record to fall back on, it would be really hard to imagine him finishing out of the top 10. I also really like Tim Clark this week, he's playing well, and the course isn't excpetionally long. Hey, I always like Tim Clark, it seems he is always in the mix.
Most talent
1. McIlroy
2. Westwood
3. Els
4. Harrington
5. Garcia
Course history
1. Allenby
2. Villegas
3. Els
4. Yang
5. Wi
On form
1. Villegas
2. Allenby
3. Casey
4. Fowler
5. Els
Off form
1. V. Singh
2. Harrington
3. J. Leonard
4. T. Immelman
5. B. Weekley
Picks
1. Allenby
2. Westwood
3. Els
4. McIlroy
5. Clark
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, March 1, 2010
Nap time
Just received my ESPN the mag fantasy baseball preview issue. I get the mag of course as a free supplement to my ESPN insider subscription, which is really a must for those that play fantasy baseball just for their sheer volume of content alone. That being said, when I opened to the sleepers section of their mag, I felt like I was taking a trip to Wonderland...
Here is their complete list of sleepers...
Eric Young
Desmond Jennings
Reggie Willits
Mike McCoy
Fernando Perez
Jason Marquis
James Shields
Tim Wakefield
Aaron Cook
John Lannan
Matt Weiters
Chris Ianetta
Cameron Maybin
Homer Bailey
Jay Bruce
Placido Polanco
Raul Ibanez
Adrian Beltre
Alex Rios
Manny Ramirez
Alex Avila
Willy Aybar
Jake Fox
Eric Hinske
Maicer Izturis
Dan Uggla
Juan Pierre
Nick Swisher
Joe Saunders
Jorge De La Rosa
Michael Wuertz
Nick Masset
Chris Perez
Angel Guzman
Mike Adams
I am stunned at what defines a sleeper these days I guess. I mean, maybe I'm wrong, but adding Jason Marquis to your squad just doesn't seem like it's going to win your any titles. The argument for Marquis was actually that he will pitch a lot of innings. You really can't make that up. Really, more innings from Jason Marquis is a good thing for my team? Really? How exactly is he going to help again? Also, their philosophy seems to say that veterans are where you look for sleeper potential, not in rookies or youth. I guess I disagree with that premise. Half the guys on that list are on the downside of their career and many of them have no upside poential from the spot they were in just last year. De La Rosa, Uggla, Aybar, Ibanez, Ianetta, Shields, Hinske, Wakefield, Cook, F. Perez, Izturis and Swisher, don't have any reason to make you think you'll get more out of them in 2010 than 2009. Manny, Beltre and Rios are past their primes as players and are going to be big wild cards at best. Which leaves us with a few legit youthful sleepers (are we still actually calling Weiters a sleeper?) and a handful of set up men from their list.
Of those guys, Pierre seems to have sleeper potential due to a large increase in PT. Chris Perez seems like he has a shot at saves in Cleveland, and I like Bruce, Maybin and Bailey as nice breakout candidates, although I've been burned by Maybin before.
So, who do I think are sleepers in 2010? I'm looking for a change in circumstances, allowing for more production, or youthful upside. Sleepers have to have a good chance to outperform their draft position or auction value significantly. Here is who fits that bill to me...in no particular order.
J. Pierre
D. McGowan
T. Snider
M. Garza
J. Bruce
H. Bailey
M. Joyce/S. Rodriguez (whoever gets the PT)
A. McCutchen
D. Price
R. Davis
D. Stubbs
B. Myers
N. Reimold
E. Cabrera
B. Morrow
J. Borbon
M. Latos
C. Gomez
A. Gordon
B. Wood
I. Stewart
C. Rasmus
Now, you've heard of all these guys and you've picked many of them before, only to be disappointed. Still, I can't think of a reason why I'd rather take Tim Wakefield than Brandon Morrow. There is no circumstance that would make that scenario play out for me. Could Wake outproduce Morrow? Absolutely, but I can guarantee I can find another Wakefield type whenever I want one. If Morrow starts the season strong and begins to realize his potential as a talented strikeout SP, that ship will have sailed. You get the point.
Cheers,
TFAM
Here is their complete list of sleepers...
Eric Young
Desmond Jennings
Reggie Willits
Mike McCoy
Fernando Perez
Jason Marquis
James Shields
Tim Wakefield
Aaron Cook
John Lannan
Matt Weiters
Chris Ianetta
Cameron Maybin
Homer Bailey
Jay Bruce
Placido Polanco
Raul Ibanez
Adrian Beltre
Alex Rios
Manny Ramirez
Alex Avila
Willy Aybar
Jake Fox
Eric Hinske
Maicer Izturis
Dan Uggla
Juan Pierre
Nick Swisher
Joe Saunders
Jorge De La Rosa
Michael Wuertz
Nick Masset
Chris Perez
Angel Guzman
Mike Adams
I am stunned at what defines a sleeper these days I guess. I mean, maybe I'm wrong, but adding Jason Marquis to your squad just doesn't seem like it's going to win your any titles. The argument for Marquis was actually that he will pitch a lot of innings. You really can't make that up. Really, more innings from Jason Marquis is a good thing for my team? Really? How exactly is he going to help again? Also, their philosophy seems to say that veterans are where you look for sleeper potential, not in rookies or youth. I guess I disagree with that premise. Half the guys on that list are on the downside of their career and many of them have no upside poential from the spot they were in just last year. De La Rosa, Uggla, Aybar, Ibanez, Ianetta, Shields, Hinske, Wakefield, Cook, F. Perez, Izturis and Swisher, don't have any reason to make you think you'll get more out of them in 2010 than 2009. Manny, Beltre and Rios are past their primes as players and are going to be big wild cards at best. Which leaves us with a few legit youthful sleepers (are we still actually calling Weiters a sleeper?) and a handful of set up men from their list.
Of those guys, Pierre seems to have sleeper potential due to a large increase in PT. Chris Perez seems like he has a shot at saves in Cleveland, and I like Bruce, Maybin and Bailey as nice breakout candidates, although I've been burned by Maybin before.
So, who do I think are sleepers in 2010? I'm looking for a change in circumstances, allowing for more production, or youthful upside. Sleepers have to have a good chance to outperform their draft position or auction value significantly. Here is who fits that bill to me...in no particular order.
J. Pierre
D. McGowan
T. Snider
M. Garza
J. Bruce
H. Bailey
M. Joyce/S. Rodriguez (whoever gets the PT)
A. McCutchen
D. Price
R. Davis
D. Stubbs
B. Myers
N. Reimold
E. Cabrera
B. Morrow
J. Borbon
M. Latos
C. Gomez
A. Gordon
B. Wood
I. Stewart
C. Rasmus
Now, you've heard of all these guys and you've picked many of them before, only to be disappointed. Still, I can't think of a reason why I'd rather take Tim Wakefield than Brandon Morrow. There is no circumstance that would make that scenario play out for me. Could Wake outproduce Morrow? Absolutely, but I can guarantee I can find another Wakefield type whenever I want one. If Morrow starts the season strong and begins to realize his potential as a talented strikeout SP, that ship will have sailed. You get the point.
Cheers,
TFAM
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