Sunday, March 28, 2010

Ten prospects to watch

Three years ago, I missed out on both Ryan Braun and Tim Lincecum when they were recalled fairly early in the 2007 season.  Now, I never imagined Braun would have zero growing pains and that Lincy would have two Cys in three years, but I was hot when another owner in my league beat me to the punch on both guys.  I have since acquired Timmy via trade (it's a shallow keeper league), but I don't want to let guys like that slide past me anymore.  Both Braun and Lincy were torching the minors in 2007 before they were called up, and savvy owners needs to be aware of the prospects to watch in the minors in 2010.  I don't expect any of these guys can come in and be Braun or Lincy right away (maybe Stras?), but you want to keep an eye on these 10, who I have tried to place in order of when I see them getting the call.

Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nats
He's the one guy who can make a huge impact right away.  He should be up by June at the latest and is everything you want from a fantasy stud.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
Pedro is one of a handful of guys who should produce power numbers pretty quickly, and he plays third.  Alvarez is another June guy.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
If Chris Davis is getting a standing ovation again in May for just making contact, Smoak will be in Texas sooner rather than later.  He is a 30 homer guy with upside in that hitting environment.

Chris Carter, 1B, A's
By all accounts he has major pop, and by all accounts, Daric Barton is terrible.  Carter will see summer action in Oakland.  Too bad that park is horrendous for bats.

Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays
He is next in line once one of their five goes down and he may be every bit as good as Wade Davis is right now.  He's clearly the number two SP who will start in the minors (I guess the verdict is still out on Chapman, who may be about even with Hellickson, so watch him too!).

Drew Storen, RP, Nats
The lesser heralded of the Nats two first rounders last year has (in my estimation) a 50-50 shot of being the closer in Washington by August.

Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
Jennings also has a tool (speed) that should be on display right away. Problem here is the depth of talent in front of him. Upton and Crawford are there, then Zobrist, Joyce and Sean Rodriguez are ahead of Jennings. He'll get the call when someone gets hurt, but may not stick until 2011.

Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
Now we start getting into guys that may be less likely to come this year.  The Marlins raved about Stanton this spring, but he is still 20 and he K's a ton.  If he gets the call he is a light tower power/speed combo guy, but I'd bet he'll struggle early.

Dominic Brown, OF, Phillies
Brown is just as tasty as Stanton, and just as unpolished.  They have similar tools and I would take the Philles park over Florida's for the next three years.  He could be up later in the year if one of the Phils outfielders suffers an injury.

Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
He may be a bit of a stretch for 2010, but he supposedly has a monster bat.  Just know the name, and keep close watch.

Five who missed the cut?
Buster Posey, C, Giants --Don't love the reports on his bat
Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins --Should be okay, but seemingly not the high end potential of the rest of these bats.
Michael Taylor, OF, A's -- He has the five tools, I just hate that park.
Carlos Santana, C, Indians -- Maybe should have Montero's spot.  Big catcher bat.  I just consistenly read better things about Montero.
Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants -- Was top five prospect before '09 when he hit a wall.  His first couple months in AAA should be interesting.

Cheers,
TFAM

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