Just when you were thinking about not taking Phil seriously at Augusta...
In my lifetime, I've learned a few things about what it takes to win at Augusta. You need to putt well and have a superb short game. You need to be able to shape your ball off the tee and length helps plenty. That'll pretty much do it. If you have three of four, you have a shot, two of four, not likely. One or zero, you're going to need to make eagles from the pine straw.
Ok, hold the thought about what it takes to win at Augusta.
About a month ago I identified five guys who I thought had a good chance to win this week. Let's break them down.
1. Phil Mickelson -- Obviously has all four of the characteristics of a winnner here, including the binus of being able to make eagles out of the straw. Was totally off his game until this week, when he went 63-65 over the weekend to crush the competition in Houston. I bet Phil thinks he'll be wearing green to the Krispy Kreme drive thru Monday morning. He just may be right.
2. Tiger Woods -- His best finish since his hiatus? His first tourney back, 4th at Augusta last here. Obviously can play the course, the swing is the only question. Showed flashes at Bay Hill.
3. Luke Donald -- Not a bomber, but his weakness -- driving accuracy -- is the same as the two guys already mentioned. Read: that can be overcome amongst the azaleas. Donald can putt and has a world class short game. He is also playing very well.
4. Matt Kuchar -- If his dad was on the bag I'd like him more, but you have to like his consistency -- he shows every week -- his putter and his short game. Let's be honest, I have no idea who can shape shots and who can't. I just know Kuchar has major game and he's going to breakthrough soon.
5. Nick Watney -- Watney has been the hottest player in the world so far in 2011, and he's got so much going for him at Augusta. He can play the course, he is a great putter, and he can drive the ball well. He's my pick to win, and I have 250 reasons why I hope it happens.
Other than my five favorties, there are others with great history at the Masters who certainly can win. Mahan, Els, Westwood and Poulter have all had varying degrees of success here and all should play well this week. I do like Ernie coming in a bit under the radar...he has a slew of top 10s in his history here.
Sergio may be a darkhorse. His history here isn't great, but the pressure is completely off and he has shown some decent form so far in 2011. He's a nice flier to take.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Kaymer
Westwood
McIlroy?
Course History
Woods
Mickelson
Singh
Els
Love
Who's Hot?
Mickelson
Watney
Kuchar
Donald
Mahan
Who's Not?
Poulter
Clark
Weir
Glover
O'Hair
My Picks
Watney
Woods
Kuchar
Mickelson
Donald
Mahan
Els
Garcia
Baddeley
Fowler
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Shell Houston Open
You know what the best part of the SHO will be this week? Not having to listen to Arnold Palmer speak or watching his mediocre grandson play mediocre golf. Is that too harsh? Am I the only one who could care less about Sam Saunders? I do look forward to Spazner Levin throwing a few clubs though. I love watching that guy, especially if I've got money on Martin Laird.
The TOUR heads to Houston this week, where Anthony Kim is thd defending champ. A quick check of his results since his win here a year ago tell us to stay very clear of AK. The top ranked players in the field are Westwood (two top 11s in the last two years), Mickelson (zero top 20s in six starts), Kuchar, and Stricker. Hunter Mahan is interesting here too. It seems like he is close and its a matter of time before he's in the winnner's circle again. Mahan has two MCs and two top 10s here in the last four years.
Players not on their game include Harrington, Els and Goosen, all of which may have more value in name than anything these days. There are at least 10 guys I'd draft before either this week.
Of the lesser knowns, Steve Marino is playing well and has competed well on this course. DJ Trahan is also going to be a trendy sleeper choice. Francesco Molinari is here too, and is a top 20 player in the world. He's certainly worth a look in the one and done.
Deep sleepers? James Driscoll and Johnson Wagner. Driscoll tied for 14th last year and Wagner won in 2008 after a ninth in '07. Nice value there. Wagner also won in Cancun in February.
Most Talent
Mickelson
Westwood
Stricker
Kuchar
Mahan
Course History
Kim
Couples
Holmes
Wagner
Stricker
Who's Hot?
Marino
Kuchar
Leishman
De Jonge
Baddeley
Who's Not?
Kim
Mickelson
Els
Villegas
Glover
My Picks
Mahan
Wagner
Westwood
Molinari
Marino
Cheers,
TFAM
The TOUR heads to Houston this week, where Anthony Kim is thd defending champ. A quick check of his results since his win here a year ago tell us to stay very clear of AK. The top ranked players in the field are Westwood (two top 11s in the last two years), Mickelson (zero top 20s in six starts), Kuchar, and Stricker. Hunter Mahan is interesting here too. It seems like he is close and its a matter of time before he's in the winnner's circle again. Mahan has two MCs and two top 10s here in the last four years.
Players not on their game include Harrington, Els and Goosen, all of which may have more value in name than anything these days. There are at least 10 guys I'd draft before either this week.
Of the lesser knowns, Steve Marino is playing well and has competed well on this course. DJ Trahan is also going to be a trendy sleeper choice. Francesco Molinari is here too, and is a top 20 player in the world. He's certainly worth a look in the one and done.
Deep sleepers? James Driscoll and Johnson Wagner. Driscoll tied for 14th last year and Wagner won in 2008 after a ninth in '07. Nice value there. Wagner also won in Cancun in February.
Most Talent
Mickelson
Westwood
Stricker
Kuchar
Mahan
Course History
Kim
Couples
Holmes
Wagner
Stricker
Who's Hot?
Marino
Kuchar
Leishman
De Jonge
Baddeley
Who's Not?
Kim
Mickelson
Els
Villegas
Glover
My Picks
Mahan
Wagner
Westwood
Molinari
Marino
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, March 21, 2011
Ranking the outfielders
Had my first of two auctions over the weekend. It's a dynasty auction (we converted from a keeper league), so you get to keep your guys forever. Obviously, lots on the line, and considering the fact I have just one Final Four team left, it's a good thing I had something to do.
My team? Weiters, Pujols, Beckham, Longoria, Brignac, Laporta and S. Rodriguez in the infield. J. Upton, Snider, Brantley, Borbon, Willingham and JD Drew in an admittedly weak outfield. The starters are Greinke, Verlander, Holland, W. Davis, E. Santana and Porcello and the relievers are Broxton, Putz and C. Zambrano.
I'm very reliant on youth, and could struggle in speed and saves, but having a youthful core anchored by Pujols long term seems okay to me.
Now, you need help in the outfield. To me, outfield and starting pitching is where you'll find most of the sleepers in your fantasy draft. Usually, you look toward the youth, and you can steal a few guys ready to break out. I called McCutchen last year, and I swung and missed again on BJ Upton (much like he did himself all season long).
1. R. Braun -- I think he's the surest thing of the lot. Bounceback in order.
2. C. Gonzalez -- No question he is for real, and a threat to take over number one overall in two years.
3. C. Crawford -- Tough to rank. Monster should help, I bet steals go down in Boston.
4. J. Upton -- He's a great bet to break out.
5. J. Hamilton -- Better, but more injury prone, than Upton.
6. A. McCutchen -- I'd just rathyer have him than the next tier. Still upside.
7. M. Holliday -- Real safe bet to help across the board.
8. M. Kemp -- I think he can bounceback but likely won;t pay to find out.
9. S. Choo -- Like Holliday, safe stats.
10. N. Cruz -- Last of the real high upside guys.
11. B. Upton -- Which is why I put him here. Could leap, likely won't. Still want him. Sigh.
12. H. Pence -- Quietly has 75 HR and 41 SB over last three seasons. Huge drop off to him from top tier though.
13. J. Bruce -- I can't understand why people think Heyward is better...in 2011.
14. J. Ellsbury -- Really hard to rank pure speed, but I think there is a slight dropoff to...
15. A. Rios -- Great first half, awful second. Better than the reverse.
16. I. Suzuki -- I guess, but no thanks.
17. J. Heyward
18. J. Werth -- Probably a bargain, but be wary of ballpark, contract and lineup change.
19. M. Stanton -- He could really disappoint, and I love youth. Just really young.
20. C. Rasmus -- Not much of a leap to .280-30-20.
21. A. Ethier -- Never much of a fan.
22. S. Victorino -- Flyin' Hawaiian keeps producing.
23. C. Granderson -- Improvement against lefties have me optimistic again.
24. D. Young -- Finally.
25. C. Young -- Ditto.
26. N. Markakis -- Is there really a 20 HR cap?
27. Adam Jones -- Betting on the come.
28. C. Quentin -- He can get back to 30+ HR and he'll come cheaper than most that can.
29. C. Hart -- I picked him up last year, Not paying for career two month stretch.
30. D. Stubbs -- Stats look good, prospect guys are baffled. I trust prospect guys.
31. J. Pierre
32. M. Bourn
33. B. Gardner -- Put these three here or further down, but they go in that order.
34. A. Pagan -- Less speed, more pop, less of a guarantee,
35. T. Hunter -- Aging Angels veterans,
36. V. Wells -- will not be occupying,
37. B. Abreu -- a spot in my outfield.
38. T. Snider -- Nice sleeper power prospect. I was a year early on him last year.
39. C. Lee -- Really looking old.
40. N. Swisher
There are really about 80 draftable OFs, and I'm not listing them all, but here are the guys that didn't make the list that I find intriguing at the right price.
Manny
Soriano
Kubel
Rayburn
Coghlan
Borbon
Tabata
Maybin
Crisp
Joyce
Morrison
Willingham
Brantley
Brown
Jennings
Gordon
L. Cain
As you can see, lots of potential cheap speed options, which is why I'd shy away from the expensive one cat types. Lots of youthful upside too in guys like Jennings, Morrison and Dom Brown.
Keep in mind Zobrist, S. Rodriguez, Bautista, and Huff qualify, but I didn't rank them due to more value at their other positions (maybe not Huff, I guess). Prospects other than Jennings and Brown include the two best in the game -- Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, though neither will make the bigs in 2011.
Cheers,
TFAM
My team? Weiters, Pujols, Beckham, Longoria, Brignac, Laporta and S. Rodriguez in the infield. J. Upton, Snider, Brantley, Borbon, Willingham and JD Drew in an admittedly weak outfield. The starters are Greinke, Verlander, Holland, W. Davis, E. Santana and Porcello and the relievers are Broxton, Putz and C. Zambrano.
I'm very reliant on youth, and could struggle in speed and saves, but having a youthful core anchored by Pujols long term seems okay to me.
Now, you need help in the outfield. To me, outfield and starting pitching is where you'll find most of the sleepers in your fantasy draft. Usually, you look toward the youth, and you can steal a few guys ready to break out. I called McCutchen last year, and I swung and missed again on BJ Upton (much like he did himself all season long).
1. R. Braun -- I think he's the surest thing of the lot. Bounceback in order.
2. C. Gonzalez -- No question he is for real, and a threat to take over number one overall in two years.
3. C. Crawford -- Tough to rank. Monster should help, I bet steals go down in Boston.
4. J. Upton -- He's a great bet to break out.
5. J. Hamilton -- Better, but more injury prone, than Upton.
6. A. McCutchen -- I'd just rathyer have him than the next tier. Still upside.
7. M. Holliday -- Real safe bet to help across the board.
8. M. Kemp -- I think he can bounceback but likely won;t pay to find out.
9. S. Choo -- Like Holliday, safe stats.
10. N. Cruz -- Last of the real high upside guys.
11. B. Upton -- Which is why I put him here. Could leap, likely won't. Still want him. Sigh.
12. H. Pence -- Quietly has 75 HR and 41 SB over last three seasons. Huge drop off to him from top tier though.
13. J. Bruce -- I can't understand why people think Heyward is better...in 2011.
14. J. Ellsbury -- Really hard to rank pure speed, but I think there is a slight dropoff to...
15. A. Rios -- Great first half, awful second. Better than the reverse.
16. I. Suzuki -- I guess, but no thanks.
17. J. Heyward
18. J. Werth -- Probably a bargain, but be wary of ballpark, contract and lineup change.
19. M. Stanton -- He could really disappoint, and I love youth. Just really young.
20. C. Rasmus -- Not much of a leap to .280-30-20.
21. A. Ethier -- Never much of a fan.
22. S. Victorino -- Flyin' Hawaiian keeps producing.
23. C. Granderson -- Improvement against lefties have me optimistic again.
24. D. Young -- Finally.
25. C. Young -- Ditto.
26. N. Markakis -- Is there really a 20 HR cap?
27. Adam Jones -- Betting on the come.
28. C. Quentin -- He can get back to 30+ HR and he'll come cheaper than most that can.
29. C. Hart -- I picked him up last year, Not paying for career two month stretch.
30. D. Stubbs -- Stats look good, prospect guys are baffled. I trust prospect guys.
31. J. Pierre
32. M. Bourn
33. B. Gardner -- Put these three here or further down, but they go in that order.
34. A. Pagan -- Less speed, more pop, less of a guarantee,
35. T. Hunter -- Aging Angels veterans,
36. V. Wells -- will not be occupying,
37. B. Abreu -- a spot in my outfield.
38. T. Snider -- Nice sleeper power prospect. I was a year early on him last year.
39. C. Lee -- Really looking old.
40. N. Swisher
There are really about 80 draftable OFs, and I'm not listing them all, but here are the guys that didn't make the list that I find intriguing at the right price.
Manny
Soriano
Kubel
Rayburn
Coghlan
Borbon
Tabata
Maybin
Crisp
Joyce
Morrison
Willingham
Brantley
Brown
Jennings
Gordon
L. Cain
As you can see, lots of potential cheap speed options, which is why I'd shy away from the expensive one cat types. Lots of youthful upside too in guys like Jennings, Morrison and Dom Brown.
Keep in mind Zobrist, S. Rodriguez, Bautista, and Huff qualify, but I didn't rank them due to more value at their other positions (maybe not Huff, I guess). Prospects other than Jennings and Brown include the two best in the game -- Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, though neither will make the bigs in 2011.
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Ranking the shortstops
Usually, outside of catcher in a two backstop league, shortstop is the weakest position in the draft. For me, that normally means I'm weak at short, because you know I don't overpay for the scarcity thing. In my two leagues (In which I have three firsts and a second in the last two seasons), I've gone both ways. In one, I've employed Hanley Ramirez for the last two seasons...the other relied mostly on Orlando Cabrera. One player does not a team make, and I can see myself not overpaying for mediocre stats at a scarce position again this year.
1. H. Ramirez -- Though it should be noted I see his decline in fantasy value as real as he is less inclined to steal.
2. T. Tulowitzki -- If he figures out April and May he's the NL MVP and a huge fantasy factor.
3. J. Reyes -- The risk isn't worth a 40 SB reward. He needs 60 to make it worthwhile and he isn't doing that, as much as I like him.
4. J. Rollins -- I guess I think his HR/SB total bests Jeter's BA.
5. S. Drew -- I know he is perenially disappointing, but I'm optimistic. He's 27, and that used to mean something.
6. D. Jeter -- Not seeing a huge bounceback.
7. A. Ramirez -- .270-15-15 sounds like stats I won't pay for.
8. E. Andrus -- SBs are worth more at positions where power is absent.
9. S. Castro -- BA regression candidate. Growing pains likely, but hang on in keeper leagues for future.
10. R. Furcal -- Health keeps him here. He's at least eight if he plays 150.
11. R. Brignac -- The bottom fell out here. All the rest of the guys are $1 for me. Upside rules.
12. J. Hardy -- Power potential
13. J. Bartlett -- Hoping for '09, expecting '10.
!4. Y. Escobar
15. A. Cabrera
16. C. Pennington
17. J. Uribe
18. I. Desmond
19. M. Scu-scu-Scuatro
20. A. Escobar -- No bat in Milwaukee, no bat in KC.
Shortstop really is ugly. I could see myself drafting Brignac or Bartlett and playing musical SS if they don't work out. Prospects including Grant Green, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Billy Hamilton and Manny Machado are all at least one year away.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. H. Ramirez -- Though it should be noted I see his decline in fantasy value as real as he is less inclined to steal.
2. T. Tulowitzki -- If he figures out April and May he's the NL MVP and a huge fantasy factor.
3. J. Reyes -- The risk isn't worth a 40 SB reward. He needs 60 to make it worthwhile and he isn't doing that, as much as I like him.
4. J. Rollins -- I guess I think his HR/SB total bests Jeter's BA.
5. S. Drew -- I know he is perenially disappointing, but I'm optimistic. He's 27, and that used to mean something.
6. D. Jeter -- Not seeing a huge bounceback.
7. A. Ramirez -- .270-15-15 sounds like stats I won't pay for.
8. E. Andrus -- SBs are worth more at positions where power is absent.
9. S. Castro -- BA regression candidate. Growing pains likely, but hang on in keeper leagues for future.
10. R. Furcal -- Health keeps him here. He's at least eight if he plays 150.
11. R. Brignac -- The bottom fell out here. All the rest of the guys are $1 for me. Upside rules.
12. J. Hardy -- Power potential
13. J. Bartlett -- Hoping for '09, expecting '10.
!4. Y. Escobar
15. A. Cabrera
16. C. Pennington
17. J. Uribe
18. I. Desmond
19. M. Scu-scu-Scuatro
20. A. Escobar -- No bat in Milwaukee, no bat in KC.
Shortstop really is ugly. I could see myself drafting Brignac or Bartlett and playing musical SS if they don't work out. Prospects including Grant Green, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Billy Hamilton and Manny Machado are all at least one year away.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Expert NCAA Bracket
Just joking. I'm farther from an expert in this thing than anything else I write on here (though it should be noted even this guy can see that UAB DOES NOT pass the eye test). I haven't really been competitive in the bracket since the days of Kenny Anderson, Dennis Scott and Brian Oliver. For a while I was picking the winner one year too early (Michigan State 1999 and Maryland 2001 were two of my premature calls), but I can't even do that anymore ( I picked Kansas last year). So, why am I even publishing my picks? I want to at least show you how great I am just in case the sun shines on this dog in March.
One thing that has become apparent to me as the quality of that talent in the NCAA has eroded do to early NBA defections is that upperclassmen win in this tournament. It almost doesn't matter anymore how high a profile your school has, it just matters that you have experienced players in your rotation. Kentucky couldn't win with all those Freshmen last year, and neither they or Carolina will do it this year. Purdue would have been my easy choice all year long, but the Hummel injury squashed that. So, which teams does that leave? Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes, who start three seniors, one junior and an All-American freshman will best the Irish who may be the most unheralded great team of the year and start an amazing five seniors.
The rest of the picks...
East Region
Ohio St.
UNC
Kentucky
Syracuse
Upset Alert
Washington over UNC?
West Region
Duke
Texas
UCONN
SDSU
Upset alert
Texas over Duke
Southwest Region
Kansas
Louisville
Purdue
Notre Dame
Upset Alert
Richmond over Vandy
Southeast
PITT
Wisconsin
St. John's
Florida
Upset Alert
Utah St. over Kansas St.
Cheers,
TFAM
One thing that has become apparent to me as the quality of that talent in the NCAA has eroded do to early NBA defections is that upperclassmen win in this tournament. It almost doesn't matter anymore how high a profile your school has, it just matters that you have experienced players in your rotation. Kentucky couldn't win with all those Freshmen last year, and neither they or Carolina will do it this year. Purdue would have been my easy choice all year long, but the Hummel injury squashed that. So, which teams does that leave? Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes, who start three seniors, one junior and an All-American freshman will best the Irish who may be the most unheralded great team of the year and start an amazing five seniors.
The rest of the picks...
East Region
Ohio St.
UNC
Kentucky
Syracuse
Upset Alert
Washington over UNC?
West Region
Duke
Texas
UCONN
SDSU
Upset alert
Texas over Duke
Southwest Region
Kansas
Louisville
Purdue
Notre Dame
Upset Alert
Richmond over Vandy
Southeast
PITT
Wisconsin
St. John's
Florida
Upset Alert
Utah St. over Kansas St.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Ranking the third basemen
I've gotten some suugestions to change the name of the blog back to The Fantasy Answer Man. Apparently I have some peeps who are thinking I'm writing about home improvement? I may switch back. I'm just looking for something with a little less ego and a little more creativity.
And before I get to baseball, Nick Watney...look out Augusta. I think he and Matt Kuchar are the main challengers to Mickelson and Woods.
Baseball...
Third base is certainly one of those sneaky shallow positions in fantasy. I'm not a big position scarcity guy, as you know, but as a tiebreaker, I'd take a 3B over an OF.
1. E. Longoria -- He'll be much better in 2011, no concerns at all. Top five overall.
2. D. Wright -- Rebounded like expected. He'll do it again. Safe pick.
3. A. Rodriguez -- I'd way rather have one of the top two, age becoming a factor.
4. R. Zimmerman -- Most would have him in front of A-Rod. I haven't gotten on board yet.
5. A. Beltre -- Drop off starts here, though not if he hits like he did last year.
6. P. Sandoval -- And a bigger drop off here. I think he recaptures the Fu.
7. J. Bautista -- Does he hit 30 HR and .250? That seems even a bit optimistic.
8. M. Young -- Gets torn apart by sabers, but still is a useful fantasy option.
9. P. Alvarez -- You know I always go with upside.
10. A. Ramirez -- There is some sleeper potential here with a bit of health.
11. M. Reynolds -- A year ago he was borderline top 5. This seems more realistic.
12. M. Prado -- Empty average is green peppers to me. Gross.
13. I. Stewart -- One post-hyper I'm not so high on.
14. J. Lopez -- I prefer him as a 2B, but I think there is some sleeper potential here.
15. S. Rolen -- The bottom has fallen out.
16. C. McGehee -- Whatever happened to Mat Gamel?
17. D. Valencia -- No prospect pedigree, but upside after big 2010.
18. C. Jones -- A head-to-head headache, but roto value here.
19. M. Mora -- Does he have the gig? The last sleeper.
20. C. Headley -- Nothing more than filler.
21. P. Polanco -- We've all ridden this train.
Don't forget about...
I think Wigginton has upside with a starting gig. There really isn't much different about the last six or seven on the list and guys like Casey Blake or Miguel Tejada. Tejada will qualify for SS though. Prospects here include the incredibly powerful Mike Moustakas, though there is a bit of Brandon Wood risk there. Lonnie Chisenhall of Cleveland is the second best 3B prospect who will likely debut in 2011.
NCAA tomorrow, shortstops on Tuesday.
Cheers,
TFAM
And before I get to baseball, Nick Watney...look out Augusta. I think he and Matt Kuchar are the main challengers to Mickelson and Woods.
Baseball...
Third base is certainly one of those sneaky shallow positions in fantasy. I'm not a big position scarcity guy, as you know, but as a tiebreaker, I'd take a 3B over an OF.
1. E. Longoria -- He'll be much better in 2011, no concerns at all. Top five overall.
2. D. Wright -- Rebounded like expected. He'll do it again. Safe pick.
3. A. Rodriguez -- I'd way rather have one of the top two, age becoming a factor.
4. R. Zimmerman -- Most would have him in front of A-Rod. I haven't gotten on board yet.
5. A. Beltre -- Drop off starts here, though not if he hits like he did last year.
6. P. Sandoval -- And a bigger drop off here. I think he recaptures the Fu.
7. J. Bautista -- Does he hit 30 HR and .250? That seems even a bit optimistic.
8. M. Young -- Gets torn apart by sabers, but still is a useful fantasy option.
9. P. Alvarez -- You know I always go with upside.
10. A. Ramirez -- There is some sleeper potential here with a bit of health.
11. M. Reynolds -- A year ago he was borderline top 5. This seems more realistic.
12. M. Prado -- Empty average is green peppers to me. Gross.
13. I. Stewart -- One post-hyper I'm not so high on.
14. J. Lopez -- I prefer him as a 2B, but I think there is some sleeper potential here.
15. S. Rolen -- The bottom has fallen out.
16. C. McGehee -- Whatever happened to Mat Gamel?
17. D. Valencia -- No prospect pedigree, but upside after big 2010.
18. C. Jones -- A head-to-head headache, but roto value here.
19. M. Mora -- Does he have the gig? The last sleeper.
20. C. Headley -- Nothing more than filler.
21. P. Polanco -- We've all ridden this train.
Don't forget about...
I think Wigginton has upside with a starting gig. There really isn't much different about the last six or seven on the list and guys like Casey Blake or Miguel Tejada. Tejada will qualify for SS though. Prospects here include the incredibly powerful Mike Moustakas, though there is a bit of Brandon Wood risk there. Lonnie Chisenhall of Cleveland is the second best 3B prospect who will likely debut in 2011.
NCAA tomorrow, shortstops on Tuesday.
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Ranking the second basemen
The big news here is that the guard has changed, with Mrs. Robinson Cano riding his batting average and Little League stadium to the top of the rankings at the position. Chase Utley's injury is huge, and Dustin Pedroia may have already reached his peak. Gordon Beckham is the one guy here with the chance to break the glass ceiling in 2011.
1. R. Cano -- Would have had this spot anyway, but Utley injury locks it in.
2. D. Pedroia -- The batting average helps, but 15-15 may be the ceiling.
3. R. Weeks -- Is he any more of an injury risk than Kinsler or Utley?
4. B. Phillips -- Can I say that I'm not as much of a fan of the second base pool as others?
5. C. Utley -- Dice roll if you have to draft him now. Healthy he is number two.
6. D. Uggla -- Thirty jacks in four straight years. Why don't I like him again? BA spiked in 2010 too.
7. I. Kinsler -- 103 G, 9 HR, 15 SB. Sounds like Orlando Cabrera.
8. G. Beckham -- First guy on my radar. Big second half in 2010 well documented.
9. A. Hill -- One year removed from .286 & 35 HR.
10. H. Kendrick -- I'm a sucker for post hyped post hype prospects.
11. B. Zobrist -- The steals are there even if the power is spotty.
12. M. Prado -- Empty average equals Freddy Sanchez. I've never owned Freddy Sanchez.
13. S. Rodriguez -- Love him. Nine HR, 13 SB. Hey, Orlando Cabrera! Could be 15-20 with ABs.
14. K. Johnson -- I hate paying for a career month.
15. C. Figgins -- Can help in SBs, and that counts for something.
16. B. Roberts -- Nothing more than a flier with injury reports again. We're in flier territory.
17. T. Nishioka -- Wildcard is at least somewhat interesting.
18. N. Walker -- Youth is on his side, pedigree is not.
19. D. Espinosa -- NO. THANKS.
20. T. Wigginton -- Is in Colorado now.
21. O. Hudson
22. C. Barmes -- Houston
23. F. Sanchez
24. M. Ellis
25. E. Young -- Steals if he gets ABs.
I find the Colorado situation interesting. You have Wigginton, Ian Stewart, Eric Young, and Jose Lopez vying for time at 2B/3B. Whichever guys get the ABs have a chance to be valuable. Keep an eye on prospects Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie, who could see the show at some point in 2010 though may not see April or May. Ackley is a top ten prospect in the game. I also like Jean Segura of the Angels in a keeper league.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. R. Cano -- Would have had this spot anyway, but Utley injury locks it in.
2. D. Pedroia -- The batting average helps, but 15-15 may be the ceiling.
3. R. Weeks -- Is he any more of an injury risk than Kinsler or Utley?
4. B. Phillips -- Can I say that I'm not as much of a fan of the second base pool as others?
5. C. Utley -- Dice roll if you have to draft him now. Healthy he is number two.
6. D. Uggla -- Thirty jacks in four straight years. Why don't I like him again? BA spiked in 2010 too.
7. I. Kinsler -- 103 G, 9 HR, 15 SB. Sounds like Orlando Cabrera.
8. G. Beckham -- First guy on my radar. Big second half in 2010 well documented.
9. A. Hill -- One year removed from .286 & 35 HR.
10. H. Kendrick -- I'm a sucker for post hyped post hype prospects.
11. B. Zobrist -- The steals are there even if the power is spotty.
12. M. Prado -- Empty average equals Freddy Sanchez. I've never owned Freddy Sanchez.
13. S. Rodriguez -- Love him. Nine HR, 13 SB. Hey, Orlando Cabrera! Could be 15-20 with ABs.
14. K. Johnson -- I hate paying for a career month.
15. C. Figgins -- Can help in SBs, and that counts for something.
16. B. Roberts -- Nothing more than a flier with injury reports again. We're in flier territory.
17. T. Nishioka -- Wildcard is at least somewhat interesting.
18. N. Walker -- Youth is on his side, pedigree is not.
19. D. Espinosa -- NO. THANKS.
20. T. Wigginton -- Is in Colorado now.
21. O. Hudson
22. C. Barmes -- Houston
23. F. Sanchez
24. M. Ellis
25. E. Young -- Steals if he gets ABs.
I find the Colorado situation interesting. You have Wigginton, Ian Stewart, Eric Young, and Jose Lopez vying for time at 2B/3B. Whichever guys get the ABs have a chance to be valuable. Keep an eye on prospects Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie, who could see the show at some point in 2010 though may not see April or May. Ackley is a top ten prospect in the game. I also like Jean Segura of the Angels in a keeper league.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
WGC at Doral
Mike Weir shot 85 last week. I don't meet to pile on, but 85? I feel like he should join my twice weekly game with my dad and my buddy Huse, he can give me a few strokes and we'll play for a trophy. It actually was pretty bad for others too out there in Palm Beach last week. Ernie Els shot a 78 Saturday and finished the tournament at 16 over par. So did Rory McIlroy. It was carnage. Still, 85?
And what to make of Els and McIlroy this week at Doral? Els is the defending champ, and he just dominated the field last year to win by four. McIlroy is top 10 in the world. Still, I just can't pick a guy that just finished a tournament at 16 over par unless they played Oakmont.
The good news is that the options are plentiful this week as all top 50 players in the world have once again gathered at a WGC event. Tiger has the best history here, with six wins and top tens in all ten tries. I know two more things about Woods that may interest you as well. I thought he actually looked very good in his one round at the match play, and you'd be broke by now if you'd wagered on him every time I said he was back. Still, I'm going back to the well.
You have to like the other top players who are hot as well. G Mac, Kaymer, Donald, Watney and Kuchar all are playing well enough to win. Phil and Dustin Johnson are threats every week, and there are obviously many more that could win.
If you want some past history Kuchar and Kaymer finished tied for third last year. Mickelson's record is shaky outside of a win in 2009, Furyk has been awful but has three top five in his last five at Doral, and Charl Schwartzel is hot and finished second in 2010.
Among those without stellar records here are McIlroy, Westwood, Johnson, Mahan and Kim.
Sleepers? Is anyone talking about Steve Stricker anymore? It seems he is due for a breakthrough. Justin Rose has been solid in 2010, and my old favorite Aaron Baddeley has qualified too. He looks to be back.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Kaymer
Westwood
McIlroy
Course History
Woods
Furyk
Els
Ogilvy
Watney
Who's Hot?
Donald
Kuchar
Sabbatini
Watney
McDowell
Who's Not?
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Furyk
Kim
My Picks
Woods
Kaymer
Watney
Stricker
Rose
Cheers,
TFAM
And what to make of Els and McIlroy this week at Doral? Els is the defending champ, and he just dominated the field last year to win by four. McIlroy is top 10 in the world. Still, I just can't pick a guy that just finished a tournament at 16 over par unless they played Oakmont.
The good news is that the options are plentiful this week as all top 50 players in the world have once again gathered at a WGC event. Tiger has the best history here, with six wins and top tens in all ten tries. I know two more things about Woods that may interest you as well. I thought he actually looked very good in his one round at the match play, and you'd be broke by now if you'd wagered on him every time I said he was back. Still, I'm going back to the well.
You have to like the other top players who are hot as well. G Mac, Kaymer, Donald, Watney and Kuchar all are playing well enough to win. Phil and Dustin Johnson are threats every week, and there are obviously many more that could win.
If you want some past history Kuchar and Kaymer finished tied for third last year. Mickelson's record is shaky outside of a win in 2009, Furyk has been awful but has three top five in his last five at Doral, and Charl Schwartzel is hot and finished second in 2010.
Among those without stellar records here are McIlroy, Westwood, Johnson, Mahan and Kim.
Sleepers? Is anyone talking about Steve Stricker anymore? It seems he is due for a breakthrough. Justin Rose has been solid in 2010, and my old favorite Aaron Baddeley has qualified too. He looks to be back.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Kaymer
Westwood
McIlroy
Course History
Woods
Furyk
Els
Ogilvy
Watney
Who's Hot?
Donald
Kuchar
Sabbatini
Watney
McDowell
Who's Not?
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Furyk
Kim
My Picks
Woods
Kaymer
Watney
Stricker
Rose
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, March 7, 2011
Ranking the first basemen
I know, I know, me trying to get these rankings out on time is like watching Bengie Molina try to take extra bases.
With first basemen the issue of position scarcity always comes up. Most people agree that first base is the deepest position in baseball, and the position scarcity point of view would be to say that it may be one of the last positions to fill when building a team. If the fourth ranked shortstop is, say, a washed up Derek Jeter, then you better grab one of the best and let the quality first baseman (the guys who really put up the monster numbers, BTW) slide by.
Well, I'm not a position scarcity guy. I'm a stats guy, and I want the best stats, regardless of position. I know shortstop is shallow, but why pay for a Jeter who'll post avergae numbers when you can get an Orlando Cabrera who'ss post a couple less steals and a few less runs? Take the stats early, and, often times, the stats come from the big boppers at first base.
1. A. Pujols -- He does seem to be declining, but the batting average is brilliant.
2. M. Cabrera -- Not a large gap between he and Albert, also a batting average monster.
3. A. Gonzalez -- Soem risk here with the league change, but Fenway should be perfect.
4. J. Votto -- I'm pessimistic on a repeat, but the value falls off here.
5. P. Fielder -- Contract year? Could hit 45 HR easily.
6. K. Youkilis -- I like the batting average, again. Pretty safe play here.
7. M. Teixeira -- I think he can bounce back, but I'm not drafting him with the slow start.
8. R. Howard -- Another slow starter, trade for him in June.
9. A. Dunn -- I just think he's safer than Morneau, not as much upside though.
10. J. Morneau -- I have a hard time paying his price with the ?'s. Seems mysterious he still isn't 100%.
11. K. Morales -- His ceiling his lower, but his injury seems less severe than Morneau.
12. B. Butler -- Do you believe? I do, but the drop off has begun.
13. P. Konerko -- I'm not paying for last year.
14. C. Pena -- I like him as a bargain.
15. A. Huff -- Yeah, and you want the lesser first basemen?
16. D. Lee
17. A. LaRoche
18. J. Loney
19. I. Davis
20. J. Smoak -- At least there is some upside here as a CI.
21. F. Freeman -- Ditto
22. M. Laporta
23. T. Helton
24. B. Wallace
25. G. Sanchez
Now, keep in mind that Posey, C. Lee, Cuddyer, and Berkman all qualify, but I think they are more valuable in their other positions. C. Lee, Cuddy and Berkman are all in the 15-23 range in that order.
Don't forget about Brandon Belt and Yonder Alonso who are an injury from full time gigs. Also, Eric Hosmer and potentially Jesus Montero (if he isn't a catcher) are big time bats who are a year away.
Golf tomorrow, second basemen Wednesday.
Cheers,
TFAM
With first basemen the issue of position scarcity always comes up. Most people agree that first base is the deepest position in baseball, and the position scarcity point of view would be to say that it may be one of the last positions to fill when building a team. If the fourth ranked shortstop is, say, a washed up Derek Jeter, then you better grab one of the best and let the quality first baseman (the guys who really put up the monster numbers, BTW) slide by.
Well, I'm not a position scarcity guy. I'm a stats guy, and I want the best stats, regardless of position. I know shortstop is shallow, but why pay for a Jeter who'll post avergae numbers when you can get an Orlando Cabrera who'ss post a couple less steals and a few less runs? Take the stats early, and, often times, the stats come from the big boppers at first base.
1. A. Pujols -- He does seem to be declining, but the batting average is brilliant.
2. M. Cabrera -- Not a large gap between he and Albert, also a batting average monster.
3. A. Gonzalez -- Soem risk here with the league change, but Fenway should be perfect.
4. J. Votto -- I'm pessimistic on a repeat, but the value falls off here.
5. P. Fielder -- Contract year? Could hit 45 HR easily.
6. K. Youkilis -- I like the batting average, again. Pretty safe play here.
7. M. Teixeira -- I think he can bounce back, but I'm not drafting him with the slow start.
8. R. Howard -- Another slow starter, trade for him in June.
9. A. Dunn -- I just think he's safer than Morneau, not as much upside though.
10. J. Morneau -- I have a hard time paying his price with the ?'s. Seems mysterious he still isn't 100%.
11. K. Morales -- His ceiling his lower, but his injury seems less severe than Morneau.
12. B. Butler -- Do you believe? I do, but the drop off has begun.
13. P. Konerko -- I'm not paying for last year.
14. C. Pena -- I like him as a bargain.
15. A. Huff -- Yeah, and you want the lesser first basemen?
16. D. Lee
17. A. LaRoche
18. J. Loney
19. I. Davis
20. J. Smoak -- At least there is some upside here as a CI.
21. F. Freeman -- Ditto
22. M. Laporta
23. T. Helton
24. B. Wallace
25. G. Sanchez
Now, keep in mind that Posey, C. Lee, Cuddyer, and Berkman all qualify, but I think they are more valuable in their other positions. C. Lee, Cuddy and Berkman are all in the 15-23 range in that order.
Don't forget about Brandon Belt and Yonder Alonso who are an injury from full time gigs. Also, Eric Hosmer and potentially Jesus Montero (if he isn't a catcher) are big time bats who are a year away.
Golf tomorrow, second basemen Wednesday.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Honda Classic
Must be nice to be the Honda Classic right now. Tour events like Harbour Town are sturggling to get a sponsor and may be going under, and the Honda gets the cushy spot right between two WGC events so all the top Euros can hit the Honda in their pre-Masters US Tour.
Which leads me to my thesis this week. In a one-and-done, you almost have to pick a Euro this week. Westwood, McIlroy, E. Molinari and Ross Fisher are all non-members teeing it up this week at Palm Beach Gardens, and with their limited schedules, you take the chances with them while you can. Even members like G Mac, Donald and Poulter play fewer events here as dual tourers, so those guys make a lot of sense too.
Which one would I pick this week? I like Westwood and Donald (how good was he last week, BTW?) to perform well, but I like G Mac to win the event. All three have a history here and have played well and G Mac was in the thick of it until a Sunday 76 last year. Plus, with apologies to Kaymer, McDowell is playing like the best in the world and has for almost a full year.
The sexpert pick this week is the rejuvenated Vijay Singh. I'll pass. He's due for a letdown. Just a hunch. And stay away from Villegas too. I know he's the defending champ, but his only air time at Dove Mountain was a series of missed three footers.
Others to look for? Kuchar is a top 10 machine, Anthony Kim was second last year (but has been largely average in 2011). Ernie Els and YE Yang were winners prior to Villegas. Yang looked good last week, dispatching McDowell on his run to the quarters. Fowler and Overton both missed the cut last year.
Make sure you are aware of the withdrawals too. Holmes, Cink, Rose and Crane have all pulled out.
A sleeper? Frederick Jacobsen has top 10s in two straight trips here, and Jimmy Walker has been on the leaderboard in each of his past two events.
Most Talent
Westwood
McIlroy
McDowell
Donald
Els
Course History
Villegas
Els
Yang
Jacobsen
Wi
Who's Hot?
Donald
Kuchar
Walker
V. Singh
Yang
Who's Not?
Poulter
Villegas
Weir
Lovemark
O'Hair
My Picks
McDowell
Yang
Donald
Westwood
Jacobsen
Cheers,
TFAM
Which leads me to my thesis this week. In a one-and-done, you almost have to pick a Euro this week. Westwood, McIlroy, E. Molinari and Ross Fisher are all non-members teeing it up this week at Palm Beach Gardens, and with their limited schedules, you take the chances with them while you can. Even members like G Mac, Donald and Poulter play fewer events here as dual tourers, so those guys make a lot of sense too.
Which one would I pick this week? I like Westwood and Donald (how good was he last week, BTW?) to perform well, but I like G Mac to win the event. All three have a history here and have played well and G Mac was in the thick of it until a Sunday 76 last year. Plus, with apologies to Kaymer, McDowell is playing like the best in the world and has for almost a full year.
The sexpert pick this week is the rejuvenated Vijay Singh. I'll pass. He's due for a letdown. Just a hunch. And stay away from Villegas too. I know he's the defending champ, but his only air time at Dove Mountain was a series of missed three footers.
Others to look for? Kuchar is a top 10 machine, Anthony Kim was second last year (but has been largely average in 2011). Ernie Els and YE Yang were winners prior to Villegas. Yang looked good last week, dispatching McDowell on his run to the quarters. Fowler and Overton both missed the cut last year.
Make sure you are aware of the withdrawals too. Holmes, Cink, Rose and Crane have all pulled out.
A sleeper? Frederick Jacobsen has top 10s in two straight trips here, and Jimmy Walker has been on the leaderboard in each of his past two events.
Most Talent
Westwood
McIlroy
McDowell
Donald
Els
Course History
Villegas
Els
Yang
Jacobsen
Wi
Who's Hot?
Donald
Kuchar
Walker
V. Singh
Yang
Who's Not?
Poulter
Villegas
Weir
Lovemark
O'Hair
My Picks
McDowell
Yang
Donald
Westwood
Jacobsen
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Catching the baseball fever
For those wanting the golf picks...after my match play performance, why? Just kidding, I'll preview the Honda tomorrow, but I need to start with baseball, it is March after all, and the madness is about to begin.
I'm going to start with the catchers and the number one rule to keep in mind with the backstops is that you only pay a premium in two catcher leagues for the position. When you start two, you have to invest, as the pickings of guys that even bring relevance is pretty thin. However, when you play just one and the position only needs to go 12 deep, well, let's just say I'll take Jorge Posada for $1 over Miguel Montero for $8 any day of the week.
Now, if you believe Matt Weiters can start to post .300-30-100 seasons, he would be worth it, and Mauer can be very valuable too, so I guess I don't have as much of a problem at the top, just don't pay for catching mediocrity.
1. J. Mauer -- He's a .320 lock, and 15-80-80 is good for tops at the position and leaves room for upside.
2. B. Posey -- No soph slump, and I lean youth...always
3. V. Martinez -- I'm a little down on the ballpark switch.
4. B. McCann -- We are splitting hairs 2-4....
5. M. Weiters -- ...and I'll pass on them all and take Weiters for less. If not Weiters, I'm not spending. After all, Weiters catches the bird before the bird catches the worm.
6. C. Santana -- Again, youth, but I'll take Weiters.
7. M. Napoli -- He's an OPS monster, and if he gets the ABs, he can mash in Texas.
8. G. Soto -- Still a good value and he may come cheap.
9. M. Montero -- And the bottom just fell out. No more than $1 from here out unless you need two.
10. C. Ianetta -- Grasping at his perennial upside.
11. J. Posada -- Can he still hit 20 HR?
12. AJ Pierzynski -- Just no BA anymore.
13. JP Arrenciba -- A rookie with pop
14. R. Martin -- Now a Yankee pushing Jorge to DH
15. Y. Molina
16. R. Doumit
17. J. Buck
18. K. Suzuki -- Has anyone ever won a fantasy title with Kurt Suzuki?
19. J. Saltalamacchia -- Boston
20. J. Jaso -- A leadoff catcher?
Don't forget about...Jesus Montero is a Yankee prospect that can mash. He should be drafted in all keeper leagues. He's an offensive star in the making.
Cheers,
TFAM
I'm going to start with the catchers and the number one rule to keep in mind with the backstops is that you only pay a premium in two catcher leagues for the position. When you start two, you have to invest, as the pickings of guys that even bring relevance is pretty thin. However, when you play just one and the position only needs to go 12 deep, well, let's just say I'll take Jorge Posada for $1 over Miguel Montero for $8 any day of the week.
Now, if you believe Matt Weiters can start to post .300-30-100 seasons, he would be worth it, and Mauer can be very valuable too, so I guess I don't have as much of a problem at the top, just don't pay for catching mediocrity.
1. J. Mauer -- He's a .320 lock, and 15-80-80 is good for tops at the position and leaves room for upside.
2. B. Posey -- No soph slump, and I lean youth...always
3. V. Martinez -- I'm a little down on the ballpark switch.
4. B. McCann -- We are splitting hairs 2-4....
5. M. Weiters -- ...and I'll pass on them all and take Weiters for less. If not Weiters, I'm not spending. After all, Weiters catches the bird before the bird catches the worm.
6. C. Santana -- Again, youth, but I'll take Weiters.
7. M. Napoli -- He's an OPS monster, and if he gets the ABs, he can mash in Texas.
8. G. Soto -- Still a good value and he may come cheap.
9. M. Montero -- And the bottom just fell out. No more than $1 from here out unless you need two.
10. C. Ianetta -- Grasping at his perennial upside.
11. J. Posada -- Can he still hit 20 HR?
12. AJ Pierzynski -- Just no BA anymore.
13. JP Arrenciba -- A rookie with pop
14. R. Martin -- Now a Yankee pushing Jorge to DH
15. Y. Molina
16. R. Doumit
17. J. Buck
18. K. Suzuki -- Has anyone ever won a fantasy title with Kurt Suzuki?
19. J. Saltalamacchia -- Boston
20. J. Jaso -- A leadoff catcher?
Don't forget about...Jesus Montero is a Yankee prospect that can mash. He should be drafted in all keeper leagues. He's an offensive star in the making.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
WGC Accenture Match Play
Am I just a golf geek or is tomorrow Christmas Day? I love the match play so much, and while it isn't exactly March Madness, the bracket thing is about as good as it gets for me in golf save the Masters in HD and early morning coverage of the British.
If you just want to see my whole bracket, you'll have to follow me on Twitter, as it is posted there. @fananswerman is the handle. Otherwise, the breakdown is below, following one aside about the Northern Trust Open.
So, I had Aaron Baddeley in my five picks last week, which was likely my call of the year, as he won the event with a world ranking worse than the likes of Mardan Mamat, Floris de Vries, and Hideto Tanihara. However, for some unexplainable reason I picked Rory Sabbatini in my one and done, not Badds. I hate Rory Sabbatini. At least I thought I did. Apparently I never knew hate until Sabbatini went SEVEN over in his last 10 holes Friday to miss the cut by one shot...in a cowboy hat, no less. Infuriating.
At least I traded Marino and Davis for Baddeley and Laird in the auction league Wednesday night.
Onto the match play.
In the Jones bracket Westwood and Watney are destined to meet in the second round, which is a crusher as these two are both potential champs. I like Watney to beat Westwood like he did last year and go on to win the bracket. Stricker and Goosen are both in the bracket and should advance a round, but I like Charl Schwartzel to meet Watney in the final eight. Schwartzel has a 2011 win and ousted Jim Furyk in the second round last year.
The Player bracket is probably the weakest of the bunch, but may feature the eventual champ. While Justin Rose and Hunter Mahan loom as threats to Martin Kaymer on the top of the bracket, Rory McIlroy should have smooth sailing on the bottom. He's a former quarterfinalist here and should do so again with the potential for more unless Kaymer gets him. I like Rory.
The Hogan bracket is the most difficult, with European giants McDowell and Poulter, the defender, in the bottom of the draw. I like the winner of that to face Mickelson, who will be sternly tested by the Fowler-Peter Hanson winner in round two. Hanson is a darkhorse and has the game to do some damage. Phil doesn't have the greatest match play record, but I just have a feeling, and like him over Poulter in the final eight.
The Snead bracket features Tiger, who's going to get all he can handle from the combination of Ogilvy or Harrington, then Dustin Johnson or Bill Haas. However, like Tiger, none of those guys outside of Haas are coming in too hot. I think Tiger's stellar match play record carries him through to a duel with Paul Casey, who has an easy draw to get to the final eight. Tiger beats Casey, though it should be noted Casey has been runner up two years in a row.
I like Rory to win the thing over Watney in a battle of two guys from oppsite sides of the pond who are destined to make big noise in 2011. Now let's just hope Yuta Ikeda doesn't bust through and ruin the party for the weekend.
Love it.
Cheers,
TFAM
If you just want to see my whole bracket, you'll have to follow me on Twitter, as it is posted there. @fananswerman is the handle. Otherwise, the breakdown is below, following one aside about the Northern Trust Open.
So, I had Aaron Baddeley in my five picks last week, which was likely my call of the year, as he won the event with a world ranking worse than the likes of Mardan Mamat, Floris de Vries, and Hideto Tanihara. However, for some unexplainable reason I picked Rory Sabbatini in my one and done, not Badds. I hate Rory Sabbatini. At least I thought I did. Apparently I never knew hate until Sabbatini went SEVEN over in his last 10 holes Friday to miss the cut by one shot...in a cowboy hat, no less. Infuriating.
At least I traded Marino and Davis for Baddeley and Laird in the auction league Wednesday night.
Onto the match play.
In the Jones bracket Westwood and Watney are destined to meet in the second round, which is a crusher as these two are both potential champs. I like Watney to beat Westwood like he did last year and go on to win the bracket. Stricker and Goosen are both in the bracket and should advance a round, but I like Charl Schwartzel to meet Watney in the final eight. Schwartzel has a 2011 win and ousted Jim Furyk in the second round last year.
The Player bracket is probably the weakest of the bunch, but may feature the eventual champ. While Justin Rose and Hunter Mahan loom as threats to Martin Kaymer on the top of the bracket, Rory McIlroy should have smooth sailing on the bottom. He's a former quarterfinalist here and should do so again with the potential for more unless Kaymer gets him. I like Rory.
The Hogan bracket is the most difficult, with European giants McDowell and Poulter, the defender, in the bottom of the draw. I like the winner of that to face Mickelson, who will be sternly tested by the Fowler-Peter Hanson winner in round two. Hanson is a darkhorse and has the game to do some damage. Phil doesn't have the greatest match play record, but I just have a feeling, and like him over Poulter in the final eight.
The Snead bracket features Tiger, who's going to get all he can handle from the combination of Ogilvy or Harrington, then Dustin Johnson or Bill Haas. However, like Tiger, none of those guys outside of Haas are coming in too hot. I think Tiger's stellar match play record carries him through to a duel with Paul Casey, who has an easy draw to get to the final eight. Tiger beats Casey, though it should be noted Casey has been runner up two years in a row.
I like Rory to win the thing over Watney in a battle of two guys from oppsite sides of the pond who are destined to make big noise in 2011. Now let's just hope Yuta Ikeda doesn't bust through and ruin the party for the weekend.
Love it.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Northern Trust Open
A few random thoughts...
If I rip on some of my guys the way I did Bill Murray last week does that mean I can visit the winner's circle too? I've been playing one-and-done for a year and a half and have yet to pick a winner.
Steve Marino had terrible body language down the stretch Sunday. He just doesn't seem like a winner to me.
Match play next week! Watch out for Nick Watney and Peter Hanson, among others.
This week, it's LA, and the field is nothing to spit at despite the losses of Watney, Els and Tim Clark to withdrawals. Stricker defends and is a strong pick after a T2 the year before. Phil, like every venue on the west coast, is a multiple winner. Dustin Johnson finished thrid here last year though the state of his game is in question with his showing at Pebble fresh in our minds. Matt Kuchar returns too after a layoff, and the Euros are beginning to invade in advance of the WGC event next week. Luke Donald is a star on this course, with three consecutive top six finishes, and he is the pick this week. I love his game. JB Holmes is great here too with three top sevens in his last three tries.
Anthony Kim, Padraig Harrington, Zach Johnson, Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Retief Goosen, Jason Day, Jim Furyk, Justin Rose, Hunter Mahan and Bubba Watson round out a great field. Mahan has been playing particularly well, though he has just two trips to the weekend at Riviera in five tries.
Most Talent
Mickelson
Stricker
Casey
Furyk
D. Johnson
Course History
Stricker
Donald
Mickelson
Holmes
Allenby
Who's Hot?
Points
Mahan
Kuchar
Marino
Gillis
Who's Not?
Weir
Moore
Harrington
Ogilvy
O'Hair
My Picks
Donald
Stricker
Baddeley
Kuchar
Sabbatini
Cheers,
TFAM
If I rip on some of my guys the way I did Bill Murray last week does that mean I can visit the winner's circle too? I've been playing one-and-done for a year and a half and have yet to pick a winner.
Steve Marino had terrible body language down the stretch Sunday. He just doesn't seem like a winner to me.
Match play next week! Watch out for Nick Watney and Peter Hanson, among others.
This week, it's LA, and the field is nothing to spit at despite the losses of Watney, Els and Tim Clark to withdrawals. Stricker defends and is a strong pick after a T2 the year before. Phil, like every venue on the west coast, is a multiple winner. Dustin Johnson finished thrid here last year though the state of his game is in question with his showing at Pebble fresh in our minds. Matt Kuchar returns too after a layoff, and the Euros are beginning to invade in advance of the WGC event next week. Luke Donald is a star on this course, with three consecutive top six finishes, and he is the pick this week. I love his game. JB Holmes is great here too with three top sevens in his last three tries.
Anthony Kim, Padraig Harrington, Zach Johnson, Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Retief Goosen, Jason Day, Jim Furyk, Justin Rose, Hunter Mahan and Bubba Watson round out a great field. Mahan has been playing particularly well, though he has just two trips to the weekend at Riviera in five tries.
Most Talent
Mickelson
Stricker
Casey
Furyk
D. Johnson
Course History
Stricker
Donald
Mickelson
Holmes
Allenby
Who's Hot?
Points
Mahan
Kuchar
Marino
Gillis
Who's Not?
Weir
Moore
Harrington
Ogilvy
O'Hair
My Picks
Donald
Stricker
Baddeley
Kuchar
Sabbatini
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
AT & T Pebble Beach
How has there not been a full fledged Vegas-style investigation into Cristina screwing up the lyrics Sunday night? There had to be rioting in the Casinos, right?
OK, golf.
There's nothing more tiresome to watch than celebrities playing golf. Hasn't this act run it's course? Unfortunately, we have to watch Bill Murray play to the fans and cameras this week with his tiresome routine when we could be watching good golf. It's the last if these idiotic pro-ams though, so we'll live.
Up until the front nine on the third Sunday in June last year, Dustin Johnson had owned Pebble Beach. Then, predictably, his game fell apart and he lost the US Open that he'll always know was the one he was destined to win. I guess it will probably go back to Pebble in another 10 years or so. In the mean time, DJ is the favorite again this week as he goes for the three-peat in this lesser prestigious event.
Challengers to DJ include Mickelson, who has won here and is a threat every time out. It's not a spot to pick him in the one and done, but he should be around on Sunday. He's already playing better this year than he did last. Nick Watney has two top 10s in the last two weeks and you know I love his game. I also like Vijay this week, as he's gone from 57th to 20th to 3rd in his three starts this year. He has seven top 10s and a win here so he's a safe bet to keep it rolling this week.
Other than those four, no one is really standing out to me this week. I'm waiting for the Jamie Lovemark breakout, so maybe this is that week for that. Padraig is here, and JB Holmes looked good last week and T2'd here in 2010. Mark Wilson? I guess you could do worse...like Mike Weir. O'Hair, Tim Clark, Geoff Ogilvy, Furyk, Mahan....I don't really have a good read on this one and none would surprise.
My sleeper this week is Richard S. Johnson. Don't ask, he's just a hunch. I like the Swedes. Check out Tiger, Kaymer and Westwood in Dubai this week also. Time to start scouting for the match play.
Most Talent
Mickelson
D. Johnson
Harrington
Furyk
Watney
Course History
D. Johnson
Mickelson
Singh
Weir
Furyk
Who's Hot?
M. Wilson
Watney
Singh
Snedeker
Dufner
Who's Not?
Weir
O'Hair
Van Pelt
Immelman
V. Taylor
My Picks
D. Johnson
Singh
R. Johnson
Watney
Lovemark
Cheers,
TFAM
OK, golf.
There's nothing more tiresome to watch than celebrities playing golf. Hasn't this act run it's course? Unfortunately, we have to watch Bill Murray play to the fans and cameras this week with his tiresome routine when we could be watching good golf. It's the last if these idiotic pro-ams though, so we'll live.
Up until the front nine on the third Sunday in June last year, Dustin Johnson had owned Pebble Beach. Then, predictably, his game fell apart and he lost the US Open that he'll always know was the one he was destined to win. I guess it will probably go back to Pebble in another 10 years or so. In the mean time, DJ is the favorite again this week as he goes for the three-peat in this lesser prestigious event.
Challengers to DJ include Mickelson, who has won here and is a threat every time out. It's not a spot to pick him in the one and done, but he should be around on Sunday. He's already playing better this year than he did last. Nick Watney has two top 10s in the last two weeks and you know I love his game. I also like Vijay this week, as he's gone from 57th to 20th to 3rd in his three starts this year. He has seven top 10s and a win here so he's a safe bet to keep it rolling this week.
Other than those four, no one is really standing out to me this week. I'm waiting for the Jamie Lovemark breakout, so maybe this is that week for that. Padraig is here, and JB Holmes looked good last week and T2'd here in 2010. Mark Wilson? I guess you could do worse...like Mike Weir. O'Hair, Tim Clark, Geoff Ogilvy, Furyk, Mahan....I don't really have a good read on this one and none would surprise.
My sleeper this week is Richard S. Johnson. Don't ask, he's just a hunch. I like the Swedes. Check out Tiger, Kaymer and Westwood in Dubai this week also. Time to start scouting for the match play.
Most Talent
Mickelson
D. Johnson
Harrington
Furyk
Watney
Course History
D. Johnson
Mickelson
Singh
Weir
Furyk
Who's Hot?
M. Wilson
Watney
Singh
Snedeker
Dufner
Who's Not?
Weir
O'Hair
Van Pelt
Immelman
V. Taylor
My Picks
D. Johnson
Singh
R. Johnson
Watney
Lovemark
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Super Props
Love Super Bowl Sunday. From the dogs to the dip, to the peeps and the props. Nothing quite like it in our culture today. I'm excited for the game of course, where I'm taking the Steelers, but I'm also excited about the props, which seem to have gained more and more attention as the years go by.
Last year, I was rewarded for my fiath in Carrie Underwood, as she held the last note of the anthem so long, it pushed the time over the number and allowed me to cash in on my first wager of the day. Trust me, that's about as good as it got that day, but I'm back for more, starting again with the anthem.
Christina's number is set at 1:54, which is 12 seconds more than it took Underwood last year. Seemed like an under today until my father-in-law said that she;s usually around two minutes on the anthem. Hmmm.
Other props I like?
Will a team score three consecutive times in the game?
Yes (-160)
No (+120)
You take the no here, right? You are getting odds and this should be a back and forth affair.
Super Bowl XLV Specials - Who will FOX show first on TV during the game? Wager is on who will be shown on TV first during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures or Past Video does not count towards wager.
Jessica Szohr (Aaron Rodgers’ Girlfriend) -140
Ashley Harlan (Ben Roethlisberger’s Fiancee) EVEN
I'm going with the controversial Roethlisberger angle to overcome the odds here. Harlan is the choice.
Super Bowl XLV Specials - Who will the FOX announcers say has better hair on TV during the Game? Must be a direct reference on TV during the Game comparing the 2 players hair or wagers will be graded as No Action (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager.
Troy Polamalu -150
Clay Matthews +110
I think Polamalu clearly has the better hair, so I'm going with the favorite here. Let's hope they mention it.
Who will catch a pass first in the game?
Hines Ward (PIT) WR -115
Donald Driver (GB) WR -115
I'm citing Ward's declining numbers and the Packers motivation to get their veteran involved early in his first Super Bowl to carry this one. Driver is the pick.
Total Receptions – Heath Miller (PIT)
Over 3.5 (-125)
Under 3.5 (-105)
The Packers are not good against the tight end (I know they ranked in the bottom half of the NFL this year). I love this one, and I like the over.
Enjoy the game folks. Should be a good one, and we'll next see football in 2012!
Cheers,
TFAM
Last year, I was rewarded for my fiath in Carrie Underwood, as she held the last note of the anthem so long, it pushed the time over the number and allowed me to cash in on my first wager of the day. Trust me, that's about as good as it got that day, but I'm back for more, starting again with the anthem.
Christina's number is set at 1:54, which is 12 seconds more than it took Underwood last year. Seemed like an under today until my father-in-law said that she;s usually around two minutes on the anthem. Hmmm.
Other props I like?
Will a team score three consecutive times in the game?
Yes (-160)
No (+120)
You take the no here, right? You are getting odds and this should be a back and forth affair.
Super Bowl XLV Specials - Who will FOX show first on TV during the game? Wager is on who will be shown on TV first during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures or Past Video does not count towards wager.
Jessica Szohr (Aaron Rodgers’ Girlfriend) -140
Ashley Harlan (Ben Roethlisberger’s Fiancee) EVEN
I'm going with the controversial Roethlisberger angle to overcome the odds here. Harlan is the choice.
Super Bowl XLV Specials - Who will the FOX announcers say has better hair on TV during the Game? Must be a direct reference on TV during the Game comparing the 2 players hair or wagers will be graded as No Action (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager.
Troy Polamalu -150
Clay Matthews +110
I think Polamalu clearly has the better hair, so I'm going with the favorite here. Let's hope they mention it.
Who will catch a pass first in the game?
Hines Ward (PIT) WR -115
Donald Driver (GB) WR -115
I'm citing Ward's declining numbers and the Packers motivation to get their veteran involved early in his first Super Bowl to carry this one. Driver is the pick.
Total Receptions – Heath Miller (PIT)
Over 3.5 (-125)
Under 3.5 (-105)
The Packers are not good against the tight end (I know they ranked in the bottom half of the NFL this year). I love this one, and I like the over.
Enjoy the game folks. Should be a good one, and we'll next see football in 2012!
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Waste Management Phoenix Open
I'm going to need the title sponsor to chase after what I've been dumping on you golf readers the last couple of weeks. I was feeling pretty good about Tiger after Thursday, then he fell apart...kinda like....John Daly. Maybe Tiger should try and bomb a couple over the falls?
This week, we head to Phoenix, where Tiger won't be seen, but many of the top Americans will be in play. Watney, Mickelson, DJ, Kim, Fowler and Bubba are all in the field. Mahan is the defending champ, and Sean O'Hair is making his season debut. I was huge on O'Hair last year, and still think he has a lot of game. 2011 is likely a bounceback. The international field isn't as strong, though it does feature major champions Angel Cabrera, Vijay Singh, Steve Elkington, Trevor Immelman, YE Yang and Geoff Ogilvy. Other contenders include the surprisingly entertaining Johnny Vegas, Jeff Overton, and JB Holmes, who has won twice in Phoenix in the last four years.
Who do I like? Basically all the Americans listed above. You can't go wrong with any of them and the whole first group I listed is playing well, but I'm going Dustin Johnson. DJ has no meaningful history in Phoenix but length plays well here and DJ has top tens in his last two starts. He's the man to beat this week. Mickelson has also won twice here and looked really good as the runner up to Watson last week. Fowler placed second here last year too and Watney is coming off a Sunday 63. It's going to be an American landslide Sunday prior to the Super Bowl.
Sleeper picks include Kevin Na, who has three top fives in five starts here, Robert Allenby, who has become very undervalued for someone of his talent, and Elkington, who just may have a little left in the tank afetr a solid showiug at the Hope and a great finish to last year at Whistling Straits.
Most Talent
Mickelson
D. Johnson
Watney
Kim
Mahan
Course History
Holmes
Mickelson
Mahan
Na
Singh
Who's Hot?
Vegas
Watson
D. Johnson
Haas
Mickelson
Who's Not?
Petterson
Glover
Leonard
Toms
Sim
My Picks
D. Johnson
Watney
Mickelson
Kim
Holmes
Cheers,
TFAM
This week, we head to Phoenix, where Tiger won't be seen, but many of the top Americans will be in play. Watney, Mickelson, DJ, Kim, Fowler and Bubba are all in the field. Mahan is the defending champ, and Sean O'Hair is making his season debut. I was huge on O'Hair last year, and still think he has a lot of game. 2011 is likely a bounceback. The international field isn't as strong, though it does feature major champions Angel Cabrera, Vijay Singh, Steve Elkington, Trevor Immelman, YE Yang and Geoff Ogilvy. Other contenders include the surprisingly entertaining Johnny Vegas, Jeff Overton, and JB Holmes, who has won twice in Phoenix in the last four years.
Who do I like? Basically all the Americans listed above. You can't go wrong with any of them and the whole first group I listed is playing well, but I'm going Dustin Johnson. DJ has no meaningful history in Phoenix but length plays well here and DJ has top tens in his last two starts. He's the man to beat this week. Mickelson has also won twice here and looked really good as the runner up to Watson last week. Fowler placed second here last year too and Watney is coming off a Sunday 63. It's going to be an American landslide Sunday prior to the Super Bowl.
Sleeper picks include Kevin Na, who has three top fives in five starts here, Robert Allenby, who has become very undervalued for someone of his talent, and Elkington, who just may have a little left in the tank afetr a solid showiug at the Hope and a great finish to last year at Whistling Straits.
Most Talent
Mickelson
D. Johnson
Watney
Kim
Mahan
Course History
Holmes
Mickelson
Mahan
Na
Singh
Who's Hot?
Vegas
Watson
D. Johnson
Haas
Mickelson
Who's Not?
Petterson
Glover
Leonard
Toms
Sim
My Picks
D. Johnson
Watney
Mickelson
Kim
Holmes
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Lounging Lessons
So, paternity leave has afforded me the opportunity to catch up on a few things that I've lost touch with in the past few years. I've been to the dentist, seen the floor of my garage, and watched a lot of daytime television, which is where I'm going today before I get to the fantasy football connection (wait for it).
I'm not going to say The Price is Right was solely capable of making me want to fake illness for a day and stay home from school back in the day, but it was more than just a fringe benefit. TPIR was the staple of any day at home on the couch, and Bob Barker is still at the front of the line in the GOAT game show host conversation. Now, I've got some issues. First, Drew Carey is just awful. I mean, he's an energy suck at best, and unwatchable at his worst. Strike one for the modern day TPIR. Yet, many have expressed their displeasure over the Barker to Carey transition, making this hardly original. The main issue I have with the show now is that it's bidding sequence to earn a spot on stage to play a pricing game is just not workable anymore. With the influx of the one up bid (you know, the idea where the person bidding first says $1300, then the next bidder crushes dreams with the $1301), this process has literally turned into a joke where two and even three one up bids in one round are not at all uncommon. Something tells me Bob Stewart didn't have this in mind when he created the show many moons ago. I mean, you can't even win the bid anymore unless you bid last or hit it right on the nose...and let's not get our boy too excited with an exact bid.
My friends, the times have changed. We need new rules to bridge from past to future and stay progressive yet still entertaining. The solution? Simple. Blind bids. Jeopardy style bidding (yes, I know they wager, but you get the point) where you can't see anyone else's bid until they are all locked in, then revealed. Would this be so hard? Is it wrong for people to actually think when they bid and reward those that actually play the game well?
Which leads us to fantasy football. We need to get rid of the ancient here too and reward those who actually play the game well, and not give those the chance to win the showcase showdown because of a fluky occurence. Where is all this going? We need to get rid of D/ST scoring in fantasy football.
Defensive scoring is fluky, plain and simple. Can you think of any other reason the Arizona Cardinals were a top five fantasy defense this year? They were awful, right? What about New England at number three? Did they have a good defense this year? Detroit number seven? How about that stout 49ers unit that ranked second in fantasy points in 2009? I've been through the rankings for the last three years and for every good unit in the top 10 (Pittsburgh 2010, NY Jets 2009, Baltimore 2008) there is a Broncos, Lions, or Cards.
I actually play in a league without defensive scoring and I can safely say that I haven't missed it in the least. Why bother? I know when we started playing fantasy football we wanted defenses because that was the way it was supposed to be, that's the way football was. But, fantasy football is established now, and we don't need defenses anymore now that we know they decide important fantasy matchups with little more than luck invloved. That's not how I want to play my pricing game.
Cheers,
TFAM
I'm not going to say The Price is Right was solely capable of making me want to fake illness for a day and stay home from school back in the day, but it was more than just a fringe benefit. TPIR was the staple of any day at home on the couch, and Bob Barker is still at the front of the line in the GOAT game show host conversation. Now, I've got some issues. First, Drew Carey is just awful. I mean, he's an energy suck at best, and unwatchable at his worst. Strike one for the modern day TPIR. Yet, many have expressed their displeasure over the Barker to Carey transition, making this hardly original. The main issue I have with the show now is that it's bidding sequence to earn a spot on stage to play a pricing game is just not workable anymore. With the influx of the one up bid (you know, the idea where the person bidding first says $1300, then the next bidder crushes dreams with the $1301), this process has literally turned into a joke where two and even three one up bids in one round are not at all uncommon. Something tells me Bob Stewart didn't have this in mind when he created the show many moons ago. I mean, you can't even win the bid anymore unless you bid last or hit it right on the nose...and let's not get our boy too excited with an exact bid.
My friends, the times have changed. We need new rules to bridge from past to future and stay progressive yet still entertaining. The solution? Simple. Blind bids. Jeopardy style bidding (yes, I know they wager, but you get the point) where you can't see anyone else's bid until they are all locked in, then revealed. Would this be so hard? Is it wrong for people to actually think when they bid and reward those that actually play the game well?
Which leads us to fantasy football. We need to get rid of the ancient here too and reward those who actually play the game well, and not give those the chance to win the showcase showdown because of a fluky occurence. Where is all this going? We need to get rid of D/ST scoring in fantasy football.
Defensive scoring is fluky, plain and simple. Can you think of any other reason the Arizona Cardinals were a top five fantasy defense this year? They were awful, right? What about New England at number three? Did they have a good defense this year? Detroit number seven? How about that stout 49ers unit that ranked second in fantasy points in 2009? I've been through the rankings for the last three years and for every good unit in the top 10 (Pittsburgh 2010, NY Jets 2009, Baltimore 2008) there is a Broncos, Lions, or Cards.
I actually play in a league without defensive scoring and I can safely say that I haven't missed it in the least. Why bother? I know when we started playing fantasy football we wanted defenses because that was the way it was supposed to be, that's the way football was. But, fantasy football is established now, and we don't need defenses anymore now that we know they decide important fantasy matchups with little more than luck invloved. That's not how I want to play my pricing game.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Farmers Insurance Open
Something about the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in La Jolla California has me thinking about the phrase "locally grown". Just a random thought. You want another one? La Jolla, and the rest of the San Diego area, is the greatest place on earth, I'm convinced.
You know who else in convinced? Tiger Woods. Woods will be making his 2011 TOUR debut this week at Torrey where he's only won the last (if you include the 2008 US Open) FIVE times he's teed it up. You know what? I think he makes it six in a row and seven of eight Sunday afternoon. I've been trying to figure when I'm going to play Tiger this year in the one and done, and I think I'm playing him this week. I get to play him on a course he owns in a week where no one else is going to take that gamble. Sure, I won't win the cash I may if I had him win a major, but that didn't exactly work out too well for me at St. Andrews last summer now did it? Tiger is the pick.
Others who can and should contend here include 2010 champ Ben Crane, who also top 10ed in 2009. However, Crane has only played once this year and was less than inspiring in Hawaii. Mickelson is here too and has multiple wins at Torrey, and although he does look very smart for nesting nearby, the trip to and fro Abu Dhabi in the last week wasn't the best decision to lead to the winner's circle this year. Rickie Fowler was fifth here last year, but he's the sexpert pick this week, as lots are picking him and the pressure may be a little much in his first 2011 start (if you're wondering about sexpert, type it into the google search box on the right of the blog). One more who should challenge Woods? 2009 champ Nick Watney. I'm forecasting a breakout year for him (not that I'm alone) and that should start here where he's got two more top tens in the last four starts to go with the win.
Lots of talent in the field this week though, so it should be fun to watch. Kim, DJ, and Justin Rose should not be discounted here.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
D. Johnson
Watney
Rose
Who's Hot?
Johnny Vegas!
B. Haas
Howell III
Na
Laird
Who's Not?
Mickelson
Glover
Cink
Weir
Allenby
Course History
Woods
Mickelson
Watney
Crane
Glover
My Picks
Woods
Watney
D. Johnson
Rose
M. Jones
Cheers,
TFAM
You know who else in convinced? Tiger Woods. Woods will be making his 2011 TOUR debut this week at Torrey where he's only won the last (if you include the 2008 US Open) FIVE times he's teed it up. You know what? I think he makes it six in a row and seven of eight Sunday afternoon. I've been trying to figure when I'm going to play Tiger this year in the one and done, and I think I'm playing him this week. I get to play him on a course he owns in a week where no one else is going to take that gamble. Sure, I won't win the cash I may if I had him win a major, but that didn't exactly work out too well for me at St. Andrews last summer now did it? Tiger is the pick.
Others who can and should contend here include 2010 champ Ben Crane, who also top 10ed in 2009. However, Crane has only played once this year and was less than inspiring in Hawaii. Mickelson is here too and has multiple wins at Torrey, and although he does look very smart for nesting nearby, the trip to and fro Abu Dhabi in the last week wasn't the best decision to lead to the winner's circle this year. Rickie Fowler was fifth here last year, but he's the sexpert pick this week, as lots are picking him and the pressure may be a little much in his first 2011 start (if you're wondering about sexpert, type it into the google search box on the right of the blog). One more who should challenge Woods? 2009 champ Nick Watney. I'm forecasting a breakout year for him (not that I'm alone) and that should start here where he's got two more top tens in the last four starts to go with the win.
Lots of talent in the field this week though, so it should be fun to watch. Kim, DJ, and Justin Rose should not be discounted here.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
D. Johnson
Watney
Rose
Who's Hot?
Johnny Vegas!
B. Haas
Howell III
Na
Laird
Who's Not?
Mickelson
Glover
Cink
Weir
Allenby
Course History
Woods
Mickelson
Watney
Crane
Glover
My Picks
Woods
Watney
D. Johnson
Rose
M. Jones
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, January 24, 2011
Chris Cutler
Caleb Hanie, anyone? Let's address the Jay Cutler situation.
While Cutler was listening to his Ipod on the sidelines yesterday in the third quarter of the NFC Championship (check out the 6:20 mark of the video, he's listening to music, right? Then, watch the whole thing and tell me he couldn't have played with the way he was moving AFTER the supposed injury), I went back and reread something ESPN guy KC Joyner write earlier in the week, which basically predicted a Cutler meltdown in Soldier Field yesterday. The link is here (insider only), and it's well worth a read. Joyner basically says the Packers will punish Cutler to the point where he will meltdown and his career may never be the same. Which is EXACTLY what happened. Don't forget to click on the Jim Everett montage link, and when your done, click on thisChris Jim Everett link too, just for fun.
I don't think Cutler can ever play for the Bears again.
Cheers,
TFAM
While Cutler was listening to his Ipod on the sidelines yesterday in the third quarter of the NFC Championship (check out the 6:20 mark of the video, he's listening to music, right? Then, watch the whole thing and tell me he couldn't have played with the way he was moving AFTER the supposed injury), I went back and reread something ESPN guy KC Joyner write earlier in the week, which basically predicted a Cutler meltdown in Soldier Field yesterday. The link is here (insider only), and it's well worth a read. Joyner basically says the Packers will punish Cutler to the point where he will meltdown and his career may never be the same. Which is EXACTLY what happened. Don't forget to click on the Jim Everett montage link, and when your done, click on this
I don't think Cutler can ever play for the Bears again.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Championship Sunday
Any thoughts on the redesign of the site? This is just step one, but I thought things needed to freshen up a bit. I have some other ideas too, including a possible renaming of the blog, though The Fantasy Answer Man would still be prominently featured.
Anyway, here we are with 3 1/8 games left in the 2010-2011 NFL season (and if you argue that the Pro Bowl is worth more than 1/8 I'll show you footage of the 2008 edition where Derek Anderson went 10-for-26 with a pick), and we have four teams who still can give us more information to use toward next year's fantasy evaluations. Here is what I'll be looking for, as well as a few thoughts about the teams who departed last weekend.
Where are we ranking Mike Wallace next year? Is he top 20? Top 15? Top 10? I want to see his targets per game rise and for him to develop more of an underneath game, but Wallace was the eighth most productive WR in one of my leagues this year where he tallied more points than Fitz, Andre and Miles, and he's still getting better.
Looking at the team the Steelers dispensed in the playoffs, I think we'll see a bit of turnover in the Ravens skill guys going into next year. Will they bring in a goal line threat to replace the almost ceratin to depart Willis McGahee? I'm also in agreement with NFL Network's Mike Lombardi that the Ravens WRs are simply not explosive enough to be difference makers despite their names and price tags. Talk about a team that could use Mike Wallace...
New England is in a similar position to the Ravens. I can't wait to see if they bring in a RB or WR to improve depth with all those picks in the draft. The Patriots usually build OL/DL/LB/DB in the draft though, so we'll see. Mark Ingram could be HUGE in New England.
The Jets are pretty set at the fanatsy positions...this year. But, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are both free agents this off-season. They have virtually no depth, so this will be something to monitor.
Can you use this You Tube clip to your advantage in a dynasty or keeper league and sell Marshawn Lynch? I'd sell high on Mike Williams too. He could get a contact this off-season and go back to being overweight and content. Fool me once...
The Packers will be better offensively next year. James Starks is better than Ryan Grant and this team is missing Jermichael Finley. They won't score 40 today, but I think they are a near lock to win. They better, no one wants to watch the Bears in the Super Bowl.
Can we finally stop drafting Devin Hester in fantasy? He was the 45th WR this year with all those return TDs. He caught 40 passes for 475 yards and 4 TDs.
Finally, the Falcons. I don't think Roddy White gets any better from here unless the team brings in a better WR2 to pose a threat to defenses. Also, just to preview some of my thoughts about next year, Michael Turner posted his worst YPC and his worst FPG (fantasy points per game) this year of his three seasons in Atllanta. Trust me, the miles are building with his usage and age. He's not getting better from here.
Enjoy the games today everyone.
Cheers,
TFAM
Anyway, here we are with 3 1/8 games left in the 2010-2011 NFL season (and if you argue that the Pro Bowl is worth more than 1/8 I'll show you footage of the 2008 edition where Derek Anderson went 10-for-26 with a pick), and we have four teams who still can give us more information to use toward next year's fantasy evaluations. Here is what I'll be looking for, as well as a few thoughts about the teams who departed last weekend.
Where are we ranking Mike Wallace next year? Is he top 20? Top 15? Top 10? I want to see his targets per game rise and for him to develop more of an underneath game, but Wallace was the eighth most productive WR in one of my leagues this year where he tallied more points than Fitz, Andre and Miles, and he's still getting better.
Looking at the team the Steelers dispensed in the playoffs, I think we'll see a bit of turnover in the Ravens skill guys going into next year. Will they bring in a goal line threat to replace the almost ceratin to depart Willis McGahee? I'm also in agreement with NFL Network's Mike Lombardi that the Ravens WRs are simply not explosive enough to be difference makers despite their names and price tags. Talk about a team that could use Mike Wallace...
New England is in a similar position to the Ravens. I can't wait to see if they bring in a RB or WR to improve depth with all those picks in the draft. The Patriots usually build OL/DL/LB/DB in the draft though, so we'll see. Mark Ingram could be HUGE in New England.
The Jets are pretty set at the fanatsy positions...this year. But, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are both free agents this off-season. They have virtually no depth, so this will be something to monitor.
Can you use this You Tube clip to your advantage in a dynasty or keeper league and sell Marshawn Lynch? I'd sell high on Mike Williams too. He could get a contact this off-season and go back to being overweight and content. Fool me once...
The Packers will be better offensively next year. James Starks is better than Ryan Grant and this team is missing Jermichael Finley. They won't score 40 today, but I think they are a near lock to win. They better, no one wants to watch the Bears in the Super Bowl.
Can we finally stop drafting Devin Hester in fantasy? He was the 45th WR this year with all those return TDs. He caught 40 passes for 475 yards and 4 TDs.
Finally, the Falcons. I don't think Roddy White gets any better from here unless the team brings in a better WR2 to pose a threat to defenses. Also, just to preview some of my thoughts about next year, Michael Turner posted his worst YPC and his worst FPG (fantasy points per game) this year of his three seasons in Atllanta. Trust me, the miles are building with his usage and age. He's not getting better from here.
Enjoy the games today everyone.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Bob Hope
"Middle age is when age starts to show around your middle."
The great Bob Hope authored many memorable one-liners during his time, but few have been so apropos for a TOUR pro heading into Hope's yearly event in Palm Springs. Steve Marino must have decided he'd had enough of middle age already at the age of 30, as he shed a few numbers in the waistline during the off-season and has come back with a new body and, judging by his stellar performance at the Sony last week, a new game.
Marino is my pick at the easiest array of tracks we'll see all season solely becuase he's playing well. His track record at the Hope includes three made cuts out of three, but just two top 30 finishes to his credit. If you like players with more of a history at the venue, you may want to try Matt Kuchar, Bill Haas, or Bubba Watson, who all dueled with Tim Clark last year when Haas emerged with a one stroke win. Of those guys, Clark has withdrawn, and Haas isn't the safest choice. I do like Kuchar a lot though, as his consistency and putting should score very well here. Watson is a wild card, as always.
Mike Weir also has great history in the desert, with four top 10s and a win here, but he's been almost unplayable pretty much since the Hope last year. You have better options in the one and done.
Others who are off to a decent start to the season who are playable this week include Jeff Overton, Chad Campbell (who has a win here), and Brendon de Jonge.
Finally, I would be remiss not to advise you to spend some time watching the results this weekend in Abu Dhabi, where Westwood, Mickelson, Poulter, Kaymer, McDowell, McIlroy, Casey, Harrington and others will be teeing it up in the marquis event of the weekend and the month of January.
Who's Hot?
M. Wilson
Marino
Kuchar
Bettencourt
Campbell
Who's Not?
Weir
Leonard
Toms
Clark (withdrawn)
Lovemark
Most Talent
Kuchar
Overton
Cink
Watson
Moore
Course History
Weir
Haas
Hoffman
Campbell
Perry
My Picks
Marino
Kuchar
Overton
Campbell
F. Jacobsen (just a hunch)
Cheers,
TFAM
The great Bob Hope authored many memorable one-liners during his time, but few have been so apropos for a TOUR pro heading into Hope's yearly event in Palm Springs. Steve Marino must have decided he'd had enough of middle age already at the age of 30, as he shed a few numbers in the waistline during the off-season and has come back with a new body and, judging by his stellar performance at the Sony last week, a new game.
Marino is my pick at the easiest array of tracks we'll see all season solely becuase he's playing well. His track record at the Hope includes three made cuts out of three, but just two top 30 finishes to his credit. If you like players with more of a history at the venue, you may want to try Matt Kuchar, Bill Haas, or Bubba Watson, who all dueled with Tim Clark last year when Haas emerged with a one stroke win. Of those guys, Clark has withdrawn, and Haas isn't the safest choice. I do like Kuchar a lot though, as his consistency and putting should score very well here. Watson is a wild card, as always.
Mike Weir also has great history in the desert, with four top 10s and a win here, but he's been almost unplayable pretty much since the Hope last year. You have better options in the one and done.
Others who are off to a decent start to the season who are playable this week include Jeff Overton, Chad Campbell (who has a win here), and Brendon de Jonge.
Finally, I would be remiss not to advise you to spend some time watching the results this weekend in Abu Dhabi, where Westwood, Mickelson, Poulter, Kaymer, McDowell, McIlroy, Casey, Harrington and others will be teeing it up in the marquis event of the weekend and the month of January.
Who's Hot?
M. Wilson
Marino
Kuchar
Bettencourt
Campbell
Who's Not?
Weir
Leonard
Toms
Clark (withdrawn)
Lovemark
Most Talent
Kuchar
Overton
Cink
Watson
Moore
Course History
Weir
Haas
Hoffman
Campbell
Perry
My Picks
Marino
Kuchar
Overton
Campbell
F. Jacobsen (just a hunch)
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Fantasy Golf
Apparently I'm a Pisces now?
I've always prided myself on being a headstrong Aries, and now I've been cast, according to Pisces Wikipedia page, as someone who is "is constantly trying to adapt itself to its ever-changing feelings and to the moods and whims of others." No! I don't like to adapt!
Unfortunatley for me, my sign apparently didn't change early enough, as I was headstrong and non-adaptive in my fantasy golf auction the other night and I ended up with a mediocre team. This league is the same one I dismantled a year ago with the likes of Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar, all of whom were purchased for less than $5 out of a $100 budget. This year, I went after a few bigger names early, and figured I'd snag a few sleepers late that would form a nice mix of talent for the squad. The big names are fine (Westwood, Poulter, Watney -- my 2011 breakout star), but my "sleepers" turned out to be Steve Marino, Arjun Atwal, Michael Sim, and Matt Jones. Throw in a flier on Sergio Garcia and a WGC and major only play in Edoardo Molinari, and you basically have my team. Call me pessimistic, but I'm not sure Arjun Atwal has a Kuchar-like run in him this decade, let alone this year. Oh well, at least I'm starting WC Liang at the Sony this week!
My other weekly league plays the one and done format where you simply choose one guy per week in each tournament and then you can never use that player again. Your score for the week is the dollar amount your guy earned at the tournament, and cumulative score wins at the end.
We got off to a slow start in the one and done this year, missing the Tournament of Champions, but we're starting with the Sony Open this week, and I'm picking Justin Rose. The former member of my auction squad lit up the TOC last week over the final three rounds going 15 under par over the final 54 holes to finish 12th (he shot 75 on Thursday to eliminate himself from the winner's circle). Rose has a decent history at Waialae CC, and he's one of the top players involved this week on talent alone. So, he's the pick.
Other top choices this week include Steve Stricker, who also plays very well here and is the highest ranked player in the field, Matt Kuchar, Ernie Els, Jason Day, and Jim Furyk, with Els and Furyk joining Stricker with the history of playing the course well.
Sleepers this week include Charles Howell III, who has five top 10s in nine starts at the Sony, and bomber Robert Garrigus, who contended last week and finished last year on a high, winning the Children's Miracle Network Classic in November.
Oh, and WC Liang.
Cheers,
TFAM
I've always prided myself on being a headstrong Aries, and now I've been cast, according to Pisces Wikipedia page, as someone who is "is constantly trying to adapt itself to its ever-changing feelings and to the moods and whims of others." No! I don't like to adapt!
Unfortunatley for me, my sign apparently didn't change early enough, as I was headstrong and non-adaptive in my fantasy golf auction the other night and I ended up with a mediocre team. This league is the same one I dismantled a year ago with the likes of Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar, all of whom were purchased for less than $5 out of a $100 budget. This year, I went after a few bigger names early, and figured I'd snag a few sleepers late that would form a nice mix of talent for the squad. The big names are fine (Westwood, Poulter, Watney -- my 2011 breakout star), but my "sleepers" turned out to be Steve Marino, Arjun Atwal, Michael Sim, and Matt Jones. Throw in a flier on Sergio Garcia and a WGC and major only play in Edoardo Molinari, and you basically have my team. Call me pessimistic, but I'm not sure Arjun Atwal has a Kuchar-like run in him this decade, let alone this year. Oh well, at least I'm starting WC Liang at the Sony this week!
My other weekly league plays the one and done format where you simply choose one guy per week in each tournament and then you can never use that player again. Your score for the week is the dollar amount your guy earned at the tournament, and cumulative score wins at the end.
We got off to a slow start in the one and done this year, missing the Tournament of Champions, but we're starting with the Sony Open this week, and I'm picking Justin Rose. The former member of my auction squad lit up the TOC last week over the final three rounds going 15 under par over the final 54 holes to finish 12th (he shot 75 on Thursday to eliminate himself from the winner's circle). Rose has a decent history at Waialae CC, and he's one of the top players involved this week on talent alone. So, he's the pick.
Other top choices this week include Steve Stricker, who also plays very well here and is the highest ranked player in the field, Matt Kuchar, Ernie Els, Jason Day, and Jim Furyk, with Els and Furyk joining Stricker with the history of playing the course well.
Sleepers this week include Charles Howell III, who has five top 10s in nine starts at the Sony, and bomber Robert Garrigus, who contended last week and finished last year on a high, winning the Children's Miracle Network Classic in November.
Oh, and WC Liang.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
As seen on TV
Well, well, well. My wife and I welcomed a new addition to the family last week, prompting a weeklong hiatus from the blog. Good thing it wasn't in-season. Anyway, TFAB has arrived, and may be writing a guest spot or two in the column somewere along the way.
I did get a chance to watch some playoff action this weekend, and picked up a few things that may be helpful to us all in 2011.
Let's start in Kansas City. You know I was chortling all through the month of December when Todd Haley's name was getting thrown around for coach of the year. Really? Haha. The guy can't even coach his own team and was exposed badly by a much better prepared coach and team on Sunday. Jamaal Charles clearly has cemented his status as one of the top 10 runners in the league despite being the second best option in the backfield for Haley, which is still going to hold down his fantasy value a bit in 2011. I think he's a borderline first rounder, but don't forget he scored four times in the season's first 13 weeks. One last note about the Chiefs? Matt Cassel, overrated. I just don't like how he plays the position. He ducks his head whenever pressure is in his face and he's been doing it all year.
Let's turn to Green Bay, where James Starks did what Brandon Jackson et al couldn't do all year: run the football. I think Starks is a clear threat to steal a lot of fantasy value of Ryan Grant in 2011. I've always felt Grant got by in fantasy circles on volume, not talent.
I murdered one of many fantasy teams in 2010 by backing Shonn Greene, but I'm buying him again in 2011. I love the Jets rushing attack, and if Greene gets to 60% instead of 40% of the team's carries, he's going to be a top 10 back in fantasy. They should cut LT's workload a bit, right? Greene is certainly a keeper league play and a great buy low right now.
Now, back to the first game of the weekend, and specifically, the Saints rushing game. Obviously, Julius Jones won't be back in 2011, but what other pieces will be in play. Reggie Bush looks terrible, Pierre Thomas isn't going to be back. Let's see if the Saints jump on someone in the draft or free agency that looks like an impact fantasy guy. I'm sure of two things. One, there is plenty of fantasy points to be had in the Saints backfield, and two, the player that's going to score the majority of those points is not currently on the roster. Going back to keeper/dynasty formats, Im selling both Thomas and Reggie right now.
Tomorrow, I'm going to try and get in a golf column if TFAB allows. I have an auction golf league draft tonight.
Cheers,
TFAM
I did get a chance to watch some playoff action this weekend, and picked up a few things that may be helpful to us all in 2011.
Let's start in Kansas City. You know I was chortling all through the month of December when Todd Haley's name was getting thrown around for coach of the year. Really? Haha. The guy can't even coach his own team and was exposed badly by a much better prepared coach and team on Sunday. Jamaal Charles clearly has cemented his status as one of the top 10 runners in the league despite being the second best option in the backfield for Haley, which is still going to hold down his fantasy value a bit in 2011. I think he's a borderline first rounder, but don't forget he scored four times in the season's first 13 weeks. One last note about the Chiefs? Matt Cassel, overrated. I just don't like how he plays the position. He ducks his head whenever pressure is in his face and he's been doing it all year.
Let's turn to Green Bay, where James Starks did what Brandon Jackson et al couldn't do all year: run the football. I think Starks is a clear threat to steal a lot of fantasy value of Ryan Grant in 2011. I've always felt Grant got by in fantasy circles on volume, not talent.
I murdered one of many fantasy teams in 2010 by backing Shonn Greene, but I'm buying him again in 2011. I love the Jets rushing attack, and if Greene gets to 60% instead of 40% of the team's carries, he's going to be a top 10 back in fantasy. They should cut LT's workload a bit, right? Greene is certainly a keeper league play and a great buy low right now.
Now, back to the first game of the weekend, and specifically, the Saints rushing game. Obviously, Julius Jones won't be back in 2011, but what other pieces will be in play. Reggie Bush looks terrible, Pierre Thomas isn't going to be back. Let's see if the Saints jump on someone in the draft or free agency that looks like an impact fantasy guy. I'm sure of two things. One, there is plenty of fantasy points to be had in the Saints backfield, and two, the player that's going to score the majority of those points is not currently on the roster. Going back to keeper/dynasty formats, Im selling both Thomas and Reggie right now.
Tomorrow, I'm going to try and get in a golf column if TFAB allows. I have an auction golf league draft tonight.
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, January 3, 2011
Playoff fantasy rankings
I'm cheating.
I like what I wrote so much about the rationale behind my fantasy playoff rankings last year that I'm stealing it and using it again. You won't even be able to see the small changes I made, I promise.
But first, check out this link that details the rules for the playoff fantasy football I like to play.
The playoff fantasy rankings have arrived. With apologies toBrad Childress Derek Anderson, here is the stream of conciousness I care, and I'm not laughing about anything regarding how these rankings turned out. The first consideration is how many games you are going to get from a player. Therefore, I used my mythical playoff bracket (I'll get to that in a minute) to predict how many games each team will play. The second consideration is the likelihood of those predictions coming true. For example, I give the Chargers Saints about a 90 percent chance of playing at least two games, and a 50 percent chance of playing three. While I think the Bengals Packers beat the Jets Eagles, that is more of a 55 percent call, so I can't be that confident Palmer Rodgers gets more than one game, even though I still have them winning. In short, I want all my players to get at least two games, anything above that is gravy and, if you've been watching the playoffs the last few years, very difficult to predict. So these rankings take the likelihood of two games heavily into consideration. The third influence on these rankings is pure fantasy worthiness. Ray Rice LaDainian Tomlinson is obviously going to be ranked higher than Sammy Morris Domonic Rhodes, even though I have the Pats Colts winning that game.
So, here is my playoff bracket, followed by my rankings. Obviously, if you believe the playoff matchups will turn out differently, you should reflect those changes in your own rankings. Warning: if you like the Patriots more than I do (and I have them one and done) you move all those guys up significantly.
Round One
Saints over Seahawks
Colts over Jets
Ravens over Chiefs
Packers over Eagles
Round Two
Steelers over Colts
Ravens over Patriots
Falcons over Packers
Saints over Bears
Round Three
Falcons over Saints
Steelers over Ravens
Super Bowl
Steelers over Falcons
Quarterback
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
Mike Vick
Tom Brady
Jay Cutler
Mark Sanchez
Matt Cassel
Whitehurst/Hasselbeck
Running Back
Ray Rice
Rashard Mendenhall
Michael Turner
Pierre Thomas
Joseph Addai
LeSean McCoy
Matt Forte
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Reggie Bush
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jamaal Charles
Shonn Greene
Danny Woodhead
Willis McGahee
Jason Snelling
Marshawn Lynch
Thomas Jones
Brandon Jackson
John Kuhn
Julius Jones
Chris Ivory (Is he healthy?)
LeRon McClain
Domonic Rhodes
James Starks
Chester Taylor
Justin Forsett
Donald Brown
Wide Receivers
Roddy White
Mike Wallace
Derrick Mason
Greg Jennings
Marques Colston
Reggie Wayne
Hines Ward
Anquan Boldin
DeSean Jackson
Pierre Garcon
Jeremy Maclin
Donald Driver
Deion Branch
Lance Moore
Wes Welker
James Jones
TJ Houshmandzadeh
Robert Meachem
Santonio Holmes
Johnny Knox
Devery Henderson
Blair White
Braylon Edwards
Michael Jenkins
Dwayne Bowe
Mike Williams
Devin Hester
Jordy Nelson
Brandon Tate
Earl Bennett
Antwaan Randle-El
Brian Finneran
Brad Smith
Jason Avant
Ben Obamanu
Harry Douglas
Dexter McCluster
Devin Aromashodu
Tight End
Tony Gonzalez
Todd Heap
Jacob Tamme
Jimmy Graham
Heath Miller
Jeremy Shockey
Rob Gronkowski
Dustin Keller
Aaron Hernandez
Greg Olsen
Andrew Quarless
Brent Celek
Tony Moeaki
John Carlson
Kicker
Garrett Hartley
Matt Bryant
Shaun Suisham
Billy Cundiff
Mason Crosby
Adam Vinatieri
Mason Crosby
David Akers
Robbie Gould
Shayne Graham
Ryan Succop
Olindo Mare
Defense/ST
Steelers
Saints
Ravens
Falcons
Packers
Colts
Patriots
Bears
Eagles
Jets
Chiefs
Seahawks
Cheers,
TFAM
I like what I wrote so much about the rationale behind my fantasy playoff rankings last year that I'm stealing it and using it again. You won't even be able to see the small changes I made, I promise.
But first, check out this link that details the rules for the playoff fantasy football I like to play.
The playoff fantasy rankings have arrived. With apologies to
So, here is my playoff bracket, followed by my rankings. Obviously, if you believe the playoff matchups will turn out differently, you should reflect those changes in your own rankings. Warning: if you like the Patriots more than I do (and I have them one and done) you move all those guys up significantly.
Round One
Saints over Seahawks
Colts over Jets
Ravens over Chiefs
Packers over Eagles
Round Two
Steelers over Colts
Ravens over Patriots
Falcons over Packers
Saints over Bears
Round Three
Falcons over Saints
Steelers over Ravens
Super Bowl
Steelers over Falcons
Quarterback
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
Mike Vick
Tom Brady
Jay Cutler
Mark Sanchez
Matt Cassel
Whitehurst/Hasselbeck
Running Back
Ray Rice
Rashard Mendenhall
Michael Turner
Pierre Thomas
Joseph Addai
LeSean McCoy
Matt Forte
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Reggie Bush
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jamaal Charles
Shonn Greene
Danny Woodhead
Willis McGahee
Jason Snelling
Marshawn Lynch
Thomas Jones
Brandon Jackson
John Kuhn
Julius Jones
Chris Ivory (Is he healthy?)
LeRon McClain
Domonic Rhodes
James Starks
Chester Taylor
Justin Forsett
Donald Brown
Wide Receivers
Roddy White
Mike Wallace
Derrick Mason
Greg Jennings
Marques Colston
Reggie Wayne
Hines Ward
Anquan Boldin
DeSean Jackson
Pierre Garcon
Jeremy Maclin
Donald Driver
Deion Branch
Lance Moore
Wes Welker
James Jones
TJ Houshmandzadeh
Robert Meachem
Santonio Holmes
Johnny Knox
Devery Henderson
Blair White
Braylon Edwards
Michael Jenkins
Dwayne Bowe
Mike Williams
Devin Hester
Jordy Nelson
Brandon Tate
Earl Bennett
Antwaan Randle-El
Brian Finneran
Brad Smith
Jason Avant
Ben Obamanu
Harry Douglas
Dexter McCluster
Devin Aromashodu
Tight End
Tony Gonzalez
Todd Heap
Jacob Tamme
Jimmy Graham
Heath Miller
Jeremy Shockey
Rob Gronkowski
Dustin Keller
Aaron Hernandez
Greg Olsen
Andrew Quarless
Brent Celek
Tony Moeaki
John Carlson
Kicker
Garrett Hartley
Matt Bryant
Shaun Suisham
Billy Cundiff
Mason Crosby
Adam Vinatieri
Mason Crosby
David Akers
Robbie Gould
Shayne Graham
Ryan Succop
Olindo Mare
Defense/ST
Steelers
Saints
Ravens
Falcons
Packers
Colts
Patriots
Bears
Eagles
Jets
Chiefs
Seahawks
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Week 17
By now, you know that playing your fantasy championship games in Week 17 is really crazy. With less than NFL teams with something to play for tomorrow, many, many players will be sitting, or at least taking a reduced role. You aren't still playing in Week 17, are you? If so, hit up the chatroll and I will still answer questions all the way up until gametime tomorrow.
Happy New Year!
More columns next week. Fantasy LVP's and MVP's, playoff rankings, and which players did not make the playoffs in any of my leagues. Also, I plan on doing some As Seen on TV stuff for the playoffs.
Cheers,
TFAM
Happy New Year!
More columns next week. Fantasy LVP's and MVP's, playoff rankings, and which players did not make the playoffs in any of my leagues. Also, I plan on doing some As Seen on TV stuff for the playoffs.
Cheers,
TFAM
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