So, paternity leave has afforded me the opportunity to catch up on a few things that I've lost touch with in the past few years. I've been to the dentist, seen the floor of my garage, and watched a lot of daytime television, which is where I'm going today before I get to the fantasy football connection (wait for it).
I'm not going to say The Price is Right was solely capable of making me want to fake illness for a day and stay home from school back in the day, but it was more than just a fringe benefit. TPIR was the staple of any day at home on the couch, and Bob Barker is still at the front of the line in the GOAT game show host conversation. Now, I've got some issues. First, Drew Carey is just awful. I mean, he's an energy suck at best, and unwatchable at his worst. Strike one for the modern day TPIR. Yet, many have expressed their displeasure over the Barker to Carey transition, making this hardly original. The main issue I have with the show now is that it's bidding sequence to earn a spot on stage to play a pricing game is just not workable anymore. With the influx of the one up bid (you know, the idea where the person bidding first says $1300, then the next bidder crushes dreams with the $1301), this process has literally turned into a joke where two and even three one up bids in one round are not at all uncommon. Something tells me Bob Stewart didn't have this in mind when he created the show many moons ago. I mean, you can't even win the bid anymore unless you bid last or hit it right on the nose...and let's not get our boy too excited with an exact bid.
My friends, the times have changed. We need new rules to bridge from past to future and stay progressive yet still entertaining. The solution? Simple. Blind bids. Jeopardy style bidding (yes, I know they wager, but you get the point) where you can't see anyone else's bid until they are all locked in, then revealed. Would this be so hard? Is it wrong for people to actually think when they bid and reward those that actually play the game well?
Which leads us to fantasy football. We need to get rid of the ancient here too and reward those who actually play the game well, and not give those the chance to win the showcase showdown because of a fluky occurence. Where is all this going? We need to get rid of D/ST scoring in fantasy football.
Defensive scoring is fluky, plain and simple. Can you think of any other reason the Arizona Cardinals were a top five fantasy defense this year? They were awful, right? What about New England at number three? Did they have a good defense this year? Detroit number seven? How about that stout 49ers unit that ranked second in fantasy points in 2009? I've been through the rankings for the last three years and for every good unit in the top 10 (Pittsburgh 2010, NY Jets 2009, Baltimore 2008) there is a Broncos, Lions, or Cards.
I actually play in a league without defensive scoring and I can safely say that I haven't missed it in the least. Why bother? I know when we started playing fantasy football we wanted defenses because that was the way it was supposed to be, that's the way football was. But, fantasy football is established now, and we don't need defenses anymore now that we know they decide important fantasy matchups with little more than luck invloved. That's not how I want to play my pricing game.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Farmers Insurance Open
Something about the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in La Jolla California has me thinking about the phrase "locally grown". Just a random thought. You want another one? La Jolla, and the rest of the San Diego area, is the greatest place on earth, I'm convinced.
You know who else in convinced? Tiger Woods. Woods will be making his 2011 TOUR debut this week at Torrey where he's only won the last (if you include the 2008 US Open) FIVE times he's teed it up. You know what? I think he makes it six in a row and seven of eight Sunday afternoon. I've been trying to figure when I'm going to play Tiger this year in the one and done, and I think I'm playing him this week. I get to play him on a course he owns in a week where no one else is going to take that gamble. Sure, I won't win the cash I may if I had him win a major, but that didn't exactly work out too well for me at St. Andrews last summer now did it? Tiger is the pick.
Others who can and should contend here include 2010 champ Ben Crane, who also top 10ed in 2009. However, Crane has only played once this year and was less than inspiring in Hawaii. Mickelson is here too and has multiple wins at Torrey, and although he does look very smart for nesting nearby, the trip to and fro Abu Dhabi in the last week wasn't the best decision to lead to the winner's circle this year. Rickie Fowler was fifth here last year, but he's the sexpert pick this week, as lots are picking him and the pressure may be a little much in his first 2011 start (if you're wondering about sexpert, type it into the google search box on the right of the blog). One more who should challenge Woods? 2009 champ Nick Watney. I'm forecasting a breakout year for him (not that I'm alone) and that should start here where he's got two more top tens in the last four starts to go with the win.
Lots of talent in the field this week though, so it should be fun to watch. Kim, DJ, and Justin Rose should not be discounted here.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
D. Johnson
Watney
Rose
Who's Hot?
Johnny Vegas!
B. Haas
Howell III
Na
Laird
Who's Not?
Mickelson
Glover
Cink
Weir
Allenby
Course History
Woods
Mickelson
Watney
Crane
Glover
My Picks
Woods
Watney
D. Johnson
Rose
M. Jones
Cheers,
TFAM
You know who else in convinced? Tiger Woods. Woods will be making his 2011 TOUR debut this week at Torrey where he's only won the last (if you include the 2008 US Open) FIVE times he's teed it up. You know what? I think he makes it six in a row and seven of eight Sunday afternoon. I've been trying to figure when I'm going to play Tiger this year in the one and done, and I think I'm playing him this week. I get to play him on a course he owns in a week where no one else is going to take that gamble. Sure, I won't win the cash I may if I had him win a major, but that didn't exactly work out too well for me at St. Andrews last summer now did it? Tiger is the pick.
Others who can and should contend here include 2010 champ Ben Crane, who also top 10ed in 2009. However, Crane has only played once this year and was less than inspiring in Hawaii. Mickelson is here too and has multiple wins at Torrey, and although he does look very smart for nesting nearby, the trip to and fro Abu Dhabi in the last week wasn't the best decision to lead to the winner's circle this year. Rickie Fowler was fifth here last year, but he's the sexpert pick this week, as lots are picking him and the pressure may be a little much in his first 2011 start (if you're wondering about sexpert, type it into the google search box on the right of the blog). One more who should challenge Woods? 2009 champ Nick Watney. I'm forecasting a breakout year for him (not that I'm alone) and that should start here where he's got two more top tens in the last four starts to go with the win.
Lots of talent in the field this week though, so it should be fun to watch. Kim, DJ, and Justin Rose should not be discounted here.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
D. Johnson
Watney
Rose
Who's Hot?
Johnny Vegas!
B. Haas
Howell III
Na
Laird
Who's Not?
Mickelson
Glover
Cink
Weir
Allenby
Course History
Woods
Mickelson
Watney
Crane
Glover
My Picks
Woods
Watney
D. Johnson
Rose
M. Jones
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, January 24, 2011
Chris Cutler
Caleb Hanie, anyone? Let's address the Jay Cutler situation.
While Cutler was listening to his Ipod on the sidelines yesterday in the third quarter of the NFC Championship (check out the 6:20 mark of the video, he's listening to music, right? Then, watch the whole thing and tell me he couldn't have played with the way he was moving AFTER the supposed injury), I went back and reread something ESPN guy KC Joyner write earlier in the week, which basically predicted a Cutler meltdown in Soldier Field yesterday. The link is here (insider only), and it's well worth a read. Joyner basically says the Packers will punish Cutler to the point where he will meltdown and his career may never be the same. Which is EXACTLY what happened. Don't forget to click on the Jim Everett montage link, and when your done, click on thisChris Jim Everett link too, just for fun.
I don't think Cutler can ever play for the Bears again.
Cheers,
TFAM
While Cutler was listening to his Ipod on the sidelines yesterday in the third quarter of the NFC Championship (check out the 6:20 mark of the video, he's listening to music, right? Then, watch the whole thing and tell me he couldn't have played with the way he was moving AFTER the supposed injury), I went back and reread something ESPN guy KC Joyner write earlier in the week, which basically predicted a Cutler meltdown in Soldier Field yesterday. The link is here (insider only), and it's well worth a read. Joyner basically says the Packers will punish Cutler to the point where he will meltdown and his career may never be the same. Which is EXACTLY what happened. Don't forget to click on the Jim Everett montage link, and when your done, click on this
I don't think Cutler can ever play for the Bears again.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Championship Sunday
Any thoughts on the redesign of the site? This is just step one, but I thought things needed to freshen up a bit. I have some other ideas too, including a possible renaming of the blog, though The Fantasy Answer Man would still be prominently featured.
Anyway, here we are with 3 1/8 games left in the 2010-2011 NFL season (and if you argue that the Pro Bowl is worth more than 1/8 I'll show you footage of the 2008 edition where Derek Anderson went 10-for-26 with a pick), and we have four teams who still can give us more information to use toward next year's fantasy evaluations. Here is what I'll be looking for, as well as a few thoughts about the teams who departed last weekend.
Where are we ranking Mike Wallace next year? Is he top 20? Top 15? Top 10? I want to see his targets per game rise and for him to develop more of an underneath game, but Wallace was the eighth most productive WR in one of my leagues this year where he tallied more points than Fitz, Andre and Miles, and he's still getting better.
Looking at the team the Steelers dispensed in the playoffs, I think we'll see a bit of turnover in the Ravens skill guys going into next year. Will they bring in a goal line threat to replace the almost ceratin to depart Willis McGahee? I'm also in agreement with NFL Network's Mike Lombardi that the Ravens WRs are simply not explosive enough to be difference makers despite their names and price tags. Talk about a team that could use Mike Wallace...
New England is in a similar position to the Ravens. I can't wait to see if they bring in a RB or WR to improve depth with all those picks in the draft. The Patriots usually build OL/DL/LB/DB in the draft though, so we'll see. Mark Ingram could be HUGE in New England.
The Jets are pretty set at the fanatsy positions...this year. But, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are both free agents this off-season. They have virtually no depth, so this will be something to monitor.
Can you use this You Tube clip to your advantage in a dynasty or keeper league and sell Marshawn Lynch? I'd sell high on Mike Williams too. He could get a contact this off-season and go back to being overweight and content. Fool me once...
The Packers will be better offensively next year. James Starks is better than Ryan Grant and this team is missing Jermichael Finley. They won't score 40 today, but I think they are a near lock to win. They better, no one wants to watch the Bears in the Super Bowl.
Can we finally stop drafting Devin Hester in fantasy? He was the 45th WR this year with all those return TDs. He caught 40 passes for 475 yards and 4 TDs.
Finally, the Falcons. I don't think Roddy White gets any better from here unless the team brings in a better WR2 to pose a threat to defenses. Also, just to preview some of my thoughts about next year, Michael Turner posted his worst YPC and his worst FPG (fantasy points per game) this year of his three seasons in Atllanta. Trust me, the miles are building with his usage and age. He's not getting better from here.
Enjoy the games today everyone.
Cheers,
TFAM
Anyway, here we are with 3 1/8 games left in the 2010-2011 NFL season (and if you argue that the Pro Bowl is worth more than 1/8 I'll show you footage of the 2008 edition where Derek Anderson went 10-for-26 with a pick), and we have four teams who still can give us more information to use toward next year's fantasy evaluations. Here is what I'll be looking for, as well as a few thoughts about the teams who departed last weekend.
Where are we ranking Mike Wallace next year? Is he top 20? Top 15? Top 10? I want to see his targets per game rise and for him to develop more of an underneath game, but Wallace was the eighth most productive WR in one of my leagues this year where he tallied more points than Fitz, Andre and Miles, and he's still getting better.
Looking at the team the Steelers dispensed in the playoffs, I think we'll see a bit of turnover in the Ravens skill guys going into next year. Will they bring in a goal line threat to replace the almost ceratin to depart Willis McGahee? I'm also in agreement with NFL Network's Mike Lombardi that the Ravens WRs are simply not explosive enough to be difference makers despite their names and price tags. Talk about a team that could use Mike Wallace...
New England is in a similar position to the Ravens. I can't wait to see if they bring in a RB or WR to improve depth with all those picks in the draft. The Patriots usually build OL/DL/LB/DB in the draft though, so we'll see. Mark Ingram could be HUGE in New England.
The Jets are pretty set at the fanatsy positions...this year. But, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are both free agents this off-season. They have virtually no depth, so this will be something to monitor.
Can you use this You Tube clip to your advantage in a dynasty or keeper league and sell Marshawn Lynch? I'd sell high on Mike Williams too. He could get a contact this off-season and go back to being overweight and content. Fool me once...
The Packers will be better offensively next year. James Starks is better than Ryan Grant and this team is missing Jermichael Finley. They won't score 40 today, but I think they are a near lock to win. They better, no one wants to watch the Bears in the Super Bowl.
Can we finally stop drafting Devin Hester in fantasy? He was the 45th WR this year with all those return TDs. He caught 40 passes for 475 yards and 4 TDs.
Finally, the Falcons. I don't think Roddy White gets any better from here unless the team brings in a better WR2 to pose a threat to defenses. Also, just to preview some of my thoughts about next year, Michael Turner posted his worst YPC and his worst FPG (fantasy points per game) this year of his three seasons in Atllanta. Trust me, the miles are building with his usage and age. He's not getting better from here.
Enjoy the games today everyone.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Bob Hope
"Middle age is when age starts to show around your middle."
The great Bob Hope authored many memorable one-liners during his time, but few have been so apropos for a TOUR pro heading into Hope's yearly event in Palm Springs. Steve Marino must have decided he'd had enough of middle age already at the age of 30, as he shed a few numbers in the waistline during the off-season and has come back with a new body and, judging by his stellar performance at the Sony last week, a new game.
Marino is my pick at the easiest array of tracks we'll see all season solely becuase he's playing well. His track record at the Hope includes three made cuts out of three, but just two top 30 finishes to his credit. If you like players with more of a history at the venue, you may want to try Matt Kuchar, Bill Haas, or Bubba Watson, who all dueled with Tim Clark last year when Haas emerged with a one stroke win. Of those guys, Clark has withdrawn, and Haas isn't the safest choice. I do like Kuchar a lot though, as his consistency and putting should score very well here. Watson is a wild card, as always.
Mike Weir also has great history in the desert, with four top 10s and a win here, but he's been almost unplayable pretty much since the Hope last year. You have better options in the one and done.
Others who are off to a decent start to the season who are playable this week include Jeff Overton, Chad Campbell (who has a win here), and Brendon de Jonge.
Finally, I would be remiss not to advise you to spend some time watching the results this weekend in Abu Dhabi, where Westwood, Mickelson, Poulter, Kaymer, McDowell, McIlroy, Casey, Harrington and others will be teeing it up in the marquis event of the weekend and the month of January.
Who's Hot?
M. Wilson
Marino
Kuchar
Bettencourt
Campbell
Who's Not?
Weir
Leonard
Toms
Clark (withdrawn)
Lovemark
Most Talent
Kuchar
Overton
Cink
Watson
Moore
Course History
Weir
Haas
Hoffman
Campbell
Perry
My Picks
Marino
Kuchar
Overton
Campbell
F. Jacobsen (just a hunch)
Cheers,
TFAM
The great Bob Hope authored many memorable one-liners during his time, but few have been so apropos for a TOUR pro heading into Hope's yearly event in Palm Springs. Steve Marino must have decided he'd had enough of middle age already at the age of 30, as he shed a few numbers in the waistline during the off-season and has come back with a new body and, judging by his stellar performance at the Sony last week, a new game.
Marino is my pick at the easiest array of tracks we'll see all season solely becuase he's playing well. His track record at the Hope includes three made cuts out of three, but just two top 30 finishes to his credit. If you like players with more of a history at the venue, you may want to try Matt Kuchar, Bill Haas, or Bubba Watson, who all dueled with Tim Clark last year when Haas emerged with a one stroke win. Of those guys, Clark has withdrawn, and Haas isn't the safest choice. I do like Kuchar a lot though, as his consistency and putting should score very well here. Watson is a wild card, as always.
Mike Weir also has great history in the desert, with four top 10s and a win here, but he's been almost unplayable pretty much since the Hope last year. You have better options in the one and done.
Others who are off to a decent start to the season who are playable this week include Jeff Overton, Chad Campbell (who has a win here), and Brendon de Jonge.
Finally, I would be remiss not to advise you to spend some time watching the results this weekend in Abu Dhabi, where Westwood, Mickelson, Poulter, Kaymer, McDowell, McIlroy, Casey, Harrington and others will be teeing it up in the marquis event of the weekend and the month of January.
Who's Hot?
M. Wilson
Marino
Kuchar
Bettencourt
Campbell
Who's Not?
Weir
Leonard
Toms
Clark (withdrawn)
Lovemark
Most Talent
Kuchar
Overton
Cink
Watson
Moore
Course History
Weir
Haas
Hoffman
Campbell
Perry
My Picks
Marino
Kuchar
Overton
Campbell
F. Jacobsen (just a hunch)
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Fantasy Golf
Apparently I'm a Pisces now?
I've always prided myself on being a headstrong Aries, and now I've been cast, according to Pisces Wikipedia page, as someone who is "is constantly trying to adapt itself to its ever-changing feelings and to the moods and whims of others." No! I don't like to adapt!
Unfortunatley for me, my sign apparently didn't change early enough, as I was headstrong and non-adaptive in my fantasy golf auction the other night and I ended up with a mediocre team. This league is the same one I dismantled a year ago with the likes of Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar, all of whom were purchased for less than $5 out of a $100 budget. This year, I went after a few bigger names early, and figured I'd snag a few sleepers late that would form a nice mix of talent for the squad. The big names are fine (Westwood, Poulter, Watney -- my 2011 breakout star), but my "sleepers" turned out to be Steve Marino, Arjun Atwal, Michael Sim, and Matt Jones. Throw in a flier on Sergio Garcia and a WGC and major only play in Edoardo Molinari, and you basically have my team. Call me pessimistic, but I'm not sure Arjun Atwal has a Kuchar-like run in him this decade, let alone this year. Oh well, at least I'm starting WC Liang at the Sony this week!
My other weekly league plays the one and done format where you simply choose one guy per week in each tournament and then you can never use that player again. Your score for the week is the dollar amount your guy earned at the tournament, and cumulative score wins at the end.
We got off to a slow start in the one and done this year, missing the Tournament of Champions, but we're starting with the Sony Open this week, and I'm picking Justin Rose. The former member of my auction squad lit up the TOC last week over the final three rounds going 15 under par over the final 54 holes to finish 12th (he shot 75 on Thursday to eliminate himself from the winner's circle). Rose has a decent history at Waialae CC, and he's one of the top players involved this week on talent alone. So, he's the pick.
Other top choices this week include Steve Stricker, who also plays very well here and is the highest ranked player in the field, Matt Kuchar, Ernie Els, Jason Day, and Jim Furyk, with Els and Furyk joining Stricker with the history of playing the course well.
Sleepers this week include Charles Howell III, who has five top 10s in nine starts at the Sony, and bomber Robert Garrigus, who contended last week and finished last year on a high, winning the Children's Miracle Network Classic in November.
Oh, and WC Liang.
Cheers,
TFAM
I've always prided myself on being a headstrong Aries, and now I've been cast, according to Pisces Wikipedia page, as someone who is "is constantly trying to adapt itself to its ever-changing feelings and to the moods and whims of others." No! I don't like to adapt!
Unfortunatley for me, my sign apparently didn't change early enough, as I was headstrong and non-adaptive in my fantasy golf auction the other night and I ended up with a mediocre team. This league is the same one I dismantled a year ago with the likes of Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar, all of whom were purchased for less than $5 out of a $100 budget. This year, I went after a few bigger names early, and figured I'd snag a few sleepers late that would form a nice mix of talent for the squad. The big names are fine (Westwood, Poulter, Watney -- my 2011 breakout star), but my "sleepers" turned out to be Steve Marino, Arjun Atwal, Michael Sim, and Matt Jones. Throw in a flier on Sergio Garcia and a WGC and major only play in Edoardo Molinari, and you basically have my team. Call me pessimistic, but I'm not sure Arjun Atwal has a Kuchar-like run in him this decade, let alone this year. Oh well, at least I'm starting WC Liang at the Sony this week!
My other weekly league plays the one and done format where you simply choose one guy per week in each tournament and then you can never use that player again. Your score for the week is the dollar amount your guy earned at the tournament, and cumulative score wins at the end.
We got off to a slow start in the one and done this year, missing the Tournament of Champions, but we're starting with the Sony Open this week, and I'm picking Justin Rose. The former member of my auction squad lit up the TOC last week over the final three rounds going 15 under par over the final 54 holes to finish 12th (he shot 75 on Thursday to eliminate himself from the winner's circle). Rose has a decent history at Waialae CC, and he's one of the top players involved this week on talent alone. So, he's the pick.
Other top choices this week include Steve Stricker, who also plays very well here and is the highest ranked player in the field, Matt Kuchar, Ernie Els, Jason Day, and Jim Furyk, with Els and Furyk joining Stricker with the history of playing the course well.
Sleepers this week include Charles Howell III, who has five top 10s in nine starts at the Sony, and bomber Robert Garrigus, who contended last week and finished last year on a high, winning the Children's Miracle Network Classic in November.
Oh, and WC Liang.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
As seen on TV
Well, well, well. My wife and I welcomed a new addition to the family last week, prompting a weeklong hiatus from the blog. Good thing it wasn't in-season. Anyway, TFAB has arrived, and may be writing a guest spot or two in the column somewere along the way.
I did get a chance to watch some playoff action this weekend, and picked up a few things that may be helpful to us all in 2011.
Let's start in Kansas City. You know I was chortling all through the month of December when Todd Haley's name was getting thrown around for coach of the year. Really? Haha. The guy can't even coach his own team and was exposed badly by a much better prepared coach and team on Sunday. Jamaal Charles clearly has cemented his status as one of the top 10 runners in the league despite being the second best option in the backfield for Haley, which is still going to hold down his fantasy value a bit in 2011. I think he's a borderline first rounder, but don't forget he scored four times in the season's first 13 weeks. One last note about the Chiefs? Matt Cassel, overrated. I just don't like how he plays the position. He ducks his head whenever pressure is in his face and he's been doing it all year.
Let's turn to Green Bay, where James Starks did what Brandon Jackson et al couldn't do all year: run the football. I think Starks is a clear threat to steal a lot of fantasy value of Ryan Grant in 2011. I've always felt Grant got by in fantasy circles on volume, not talent.
I murdered one of many fantasy teams in 2010 by backing Shonn Greene, but I'm buying him again in 2011. I love the Jets rushing attack, and if Greene gets to 60% instead of 40% of the team's carries, he's going to be a top 10 back in fantasy. They should cut LT's workload a bit, right? Greene is certainly a keeper league play and a great buy low right now.
Now, back to the first game of the weekend, and specifically, the Saints rushing game. Obviously, Julius Jones won't be back in 2011, but what other pieces will be in play. Reggie Bush looks terrible, Pierre Thomas isn't going to be back. Let's see if the Saints jump on someone in the draft or free agency that looks like an impact fantasy guy. I'm sure of two things. One, there is plenty of fantasy points to be had in the Saints backfield, and two, the player that's going to score the majority of those points is not currently on the roster. Going back to keeper/dynasty formats, Im selling both Thomas and Reggie right now.
Tomorrow, I'm going to try and get in a golf column if TFAB allows. I have an auction golf league draft tonight.
Cheers,
TFAM
I did get a chance to watch some playoff action this weekend, and picked up a few things that may be helpful to us all in 2011.
Let's start in Kansas City. You know I was chortling all through the month of December when Todd Haley's name was getting thrown around for coach of the year. Really? Haha. The guy can't even coach his own team and was exposed badly by a much better prepared coach and team on Sunday. Jamaal Charles clearly has cemented his status as one of the top 10 runners in the league despite being the second best option in the backfield for Haley, which is still going to hold down his fantasy value a bit in 2011. I think he's a borderline first rounder, but don't forget he scored four times in the season's first 13 weeks. One last note about the Chiefs? Matt Cassel, overrated. I just don't like how he plays the position. He ducks his head whenever pressure is in his face and he's been doing it all year.
Let's turn to Green Bay, where James Starks did what Brandon Jackson et al couldn't do all year: run the football. I think Starks is a clear threat to steal a lot of fantasy value of Ryan Grant in 2011. I've always felt Grant got by in fantasy circles on volume, not talent.
I murdered one of many fantasy teams in 2010 by backing Shonn Greene, but I'm buying him again in 2011. I love the Jets rushing attack, and if Greene gets to 60% instead of 40% of the team's carries, he's going to be a top 10 back in fantasy. They should cut LT's workload a bit, right? Greene is certainly a keeper league play and a great buy low right now.
Now, back to the first game of the weekend, and specifically, the Saints rushing game. Obviously, Julius Jones won't be back in 2011, but what other pieces will be in play. Reggie Bush looks terrible, Pierre Thomas isn't going to be back. Let's see if the Saints jump on someone in the draft or free agency that looks like an impact fantasy guy. I'm sure of two things. One, there is plenty of fantasy points to be had in the Saints backfield, and two, the player that's going to score the majority of those points is not currently on the roster. Going back to keeper/dynasty formats, Im selling both Thomas and Reggie right now.
Tomorrow, I'm going to try and get in a golf column if TFAB allows. I have an auction golf league draft tonight.
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, January 3, 2011
Playoff fantasy rankings
I'm cheating.
I like what I wrote so much about the rationale behind my fantasy playoff rankings last year that I'm stealing it and using it again. You won't even be able to see the small changes I made, I promise.
But first, check out this link that details the rules for the playoff fantasy football I like to play.
The playoff fantasy rankings have arrived. With apologies toBrad Childress Derek Anderson, here is the stream of conciousness I care, and I'm not laughing about anything regarding how these rankings turned out. The first consideration is how many games you are going to get from a player. Therefore, I used my mythical playoff bracket (I'll get to that in a minute) to predict how many games each team will play. The second consideration is the likelihood of those predictions coming true. For example, I give the Chargers Saints about a 90 percent chance of playing at least two games, and a 50 percent chance of playing three. While I think the Bengals Packers beat the Jets Eagles, that is more of a 55 percent call, so I can't be that confident Palmer Rodgers gets more than one game, even though I still have them winning. In short, I want all my players to get at least two games, anything above that is gravy and, if you've been watching the playoffs the last few years, very difficult to predict. So these rankings take the likelihood of two games heavily into consideration. The third influence on these rankings is pure fantasy worthiness. Ray Rice LaDainian Tomlinson is obviously going to be ranked higher than Sammy Morris Domonic Rhodes, even though I have the Pats Colts winning that game.
So, here is my playoff bracket, followed by my rankings. Obviously, if you believe the playoff matchups will turn out differently, you should reflect those changes in your own rankings. Warning: if you like the Patriots more than I do (and I have them one and done) you move all those guys up significantly.
Round One
Saints over Seahawks
Colts over Jets
Ravens over Chiefs
Packers over Eagles
Round Two
Steelers over Colts
Ravens over Patriots
Falcons over Packers
Saints over Bears
Round Three
Falcons over Saints
Steelers over Ravens
Super Bowl
Steelers over Falcons
Quarterback
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
Mike Vick
Tom Brady
Jay Cutler
Mark Sanchez
Matt Cassel
Whitehurst/Hasselbeck
Running Back
Ray Rice
Rashard Mendenhall
Michael Turner
Pierre Thomas
Joseph Addai
LeSean McCoy
Matt Forte
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Reggie Bush
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jamaal Charles
Shonn Greene
Danny Woodhead
Willis McGahee
Jason Snelling
Marshawn Lynch
Thomas Jones
Brandon Jackson
John Kuhn
Julius Jones
Chris Ivory (Is he healthy?)
LeRon McClain
Domonic Rhodes
James Starks
Chester Taylor
Justin Forsett
Donald Brown
Wide Receivers
Roddy White
Mike Wallace
Derrick Mason
Greg Jennings
Marques Colston
Reggie Wayne
Hines Ward
Anquan Boldin
DeSean Jackson
Pierre Garcon
Jeremy Maclin
Donald Driver
Deion Branch
Lance Moore
Wes Welker
James Jones
TJ Houshmandzadeh
Robert Meachem
Santonio Holmes
Johnny Knox
Devery Henderson
Blair White
Braylon Edwards
Michael Jenkins
Dwayne Bowe
Mike Williams
Devin Hester
Jordy Nelson
Brandon Tate
Earl Bennett
Antwaan Randle-El
Brian Finneran
Brad Smith
Jason Avant
Ben Obamanu
Harry Douglas
Dexter McCluster
Devin Aromashodu
Tight End
Tony Gonzalez
Todd Heap
Jacob Tamme
Jimmy Graham
Heath Miller
Jeremy Shockey
Rob Gronkowski
Dustin Keller
Aaron Hernandez
Greg Olsen
Andrew Quarless
Brent Celek
Tony Moeaki
John Carlson
Kicker
Garrett Hartley
Matt Bryant
Shaun Suisham
Billy Cundiff
Mason Crosby
Adam Vinatieri
Mason Crosby
David Akers
Robbie Gould
Shayne Graham
Ryan Succop
Olindo Mare
Defense/ST
Steelers
Saints
Ravens
Falcons
Packers
Colts
Patriots
Bears
Eagles
Jets
Chiefs
Seahawks
Cheers,
TFAM
I like what I wrote so much about the rationale behind my fantasy playoff rankings last year that I'm stealing it and using it again. You won't even be able to see the small changes I made, I promise.
But first, check out this link that details the rules for the playoff fantasy football I like to play.
The playoff fantasy rankings have arrived. With apologies to
So, here is my playoff bracket, followed by my rankings. Obviously, if you believe the playoff matchups will turn out differently, you should reflect those changes in your own rankings. Warning: if you like the Patriots more than I do (and I have them one and done) you move all those guys up significantly.
Round One
Saints over Seahawks
Colts over Jets
Ravens over Chiefs
Packers over Eagles
Round Two
Steelers over Colts
Ravens over Patriots
Falcons over Packers
Saints over Bears
Round Three
Falcons over Saints
Steelers over Ravens
Super Bowl
Steelers over Falcons
Quarterback
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
Mike Vick
Tom Brady
Jay Cutler
Mark Sanchez
Matt Cassel
Whitehurst/Hasselbeck
Running Back
Ray Rice
Rashard Mendenhall
Michael Turner
Pierre Thomas
Joseph Addai
LeSean McCoy
Matt Forte
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Reggie Bush
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jamaal Charles
Shonn Greene
Danny Woodhead
Willis McGahee
Jason Snelling
Marshawn Lynch
Thomas Jones
Brandon Jackson
John Kuhn
Julius Jones
Chris Ivory (Is he healthy?)
LeRon McClain
Domonic Rhodes
James Starks
Chester Taylor
Justin Forsett
Donald Brown
Wide Receivers
Roddy White
Mike Wallace
Derrick Mason
Greg Jennings
Marques Colston
Reggie Wayne
Hines Ward
Anquan Boldin
DeSean Jackson
Pierre Garcon
Jeremy Maclin
Donald Driver
Deion Branch
Lance Moore
Wes Welker
James Jones
TJ Houshmandzadeh
Robert Meachem
Santonio Holmes
Johnny Knox
Devery Henderson
Blair White
Braylon Edwards
Michael Jenkins
Dwayne Bowe
Mike Williams
Devin Hester
Jordy Nelson
Brandon Tate
Earl Bennett
Antwaan Randle-El
Brian Finneran
Brad Smith
Jason Avant
Ben Obamanu
Harry Douglas
Dexter McCluster
Devin Aromashodu
Tight End
Tony Gonzalez
Todd Heap
Jacob Tamme
Jimmy Graham
Heath Miller
Jeremy Shockey
Rob Gronkowski
Dustin Keller
Aaron Hernandez
Greg Olsen
Andrew Quarless
Brent Celek
Tony Moeaki
John Carlson
Kicker
Garrett Hartley
Matt Bryant
Shaun Suisham
Billy Cundiff
Mason Crosby
Adam Vinatieri
Mason Crosby
David Akers
Robbie Gould
Shayne Graham
Ryan Succop
Olindo Mare
Defense/ST
Steelers
Saints
Ravens
Falcons
Packers
Colts
Patriots
Bears
Eagles
Jets
Chiefs
Seahawks
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Week 17
By now, you know that playing your fantasy championship games in Week 17 is really crazy. With less than NFL teams with something to play for tomorrow, many, many players will be sitting, or at least taking a reduced role. You aren't still playing in Week 17, are you? If so, hit up the chatroll and I will still answer questions all the way up until gametime tomorrow.
Happy New Year!
More columns next week. Fantasy LVP's and MVP's, playoff rankings, and which players did not make the playoffs in any of my leagues. Also, I plan on doing some As Seen on TV stuff for the playoffs.
Cheers,
TFAM
Happy New Year!
More columns next week. Fantasy LVP's and MVP's, playoff rankings, and which players did not make the playoffs in any of my leagues. Also, I plan on doing some As Seen on TV stuff for the playoffs.
Cheers,
TFAM
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