So the PGA calendar turns the page from the least entertaining event since Mayakoba to the most anticipated non major tourney of the year in Charlotte, Quial Hollow. This tournament is formerly known at the Wachovia, and it usually draws a huge field. This year is no exception, and the favorites are likely to take charge this week.
It's hard to pick a winner outside of this group of five: Mickelson, Woods, Kim, Furyk, and Westwood. Three first four have all won here before, and all play well here every year. Westwood has the length to tame the Quail, and has been playing as consistent as anyone outside of Els (who is one of the only big names to skip this week) all year long. Kim won in 2008, Tiger in 2007 and Furyk in 2006. Mickelson has five top 12 finishes in six tries here, Tiger and Furyk hace three top tens a piece, while AK has two. It really comes down to the big guns this week. The only one I shy away from a bit is Kim, who is dealing with a wrist thing, and he played in South Korea last week, which gives me slight pause. Still, he's played brialliantly through the injury over the last month.
Outside of the big guns there are questions. Lucas Glover has three top 10s here including a second a year ago, but has failed to gain any traction in 2010. Sean O'Hair won the event last year, but disappointingly has also failed to find his form. Retief has this course down too, but he has been all over the map in 2010. Trying to predict whether his game is on is akin to meteorology in West England.
Two other big names to watch this week are Ogilvy and Vijay. Is Vijay back from the back? He was playing very well when he went down, and he has a win and three other top 10s here. Ogilvy hasn't played well this year, but has been in the top 25 five times in six tries at this event.
Other big names in the field this week who have played well in 2010 include Mahan, Allenby, Couples, Villegas, Watney, Harrington and Fowler. It wouldn't be surprising to see any of those guys in the mix Sunday either, save maybe Couples, who flamed in his last non Masters event with the big boys.
Sleepers this week include Boo Weekley, who has quietly (unless you're following him on the course) rebounded the last couple of weeks with back to back strong showings at Hilton Head and Louisiana. Boo tied for 11th here a year ago. I also really like Stuart Appleby. He has no good history here, so call it a hunch, but he is finding his game. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we're talking about Appleby in a few months joining Ernie and Vijay as guys who regained the spotlight in 2010.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Kim
Harrington
Course History
Woods
Mickelson
Furyk
Kim
O'Hair
Who's Hot
Furyk
Kim
Mickelson
Westwood
Kuchar
Who's Not
Glover
McIlroy
O'Hair
Scott
Love
My Picks
Mickelson
Woods
Furyk
Kim
Appleby
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Monday, April 26, 2010
Four Stars a Struggling
We're embarking on week four of the fantasy season, a time when owners start to panic (rightfully so) and useful players end of being cut and bigger names start to move in tthe trade market. Here are five stars who are struggling, and my recommendations as far as what to do with them.
David Wright, 3B, Mets
The Truth: Wright, coming off a strange 2009 campaign where he lost all his magical powers and hit only 10 dingers, is batting just .222 on April 26. He also has three home runs and six stolen bases.
The Verdict: You should be buying Wright now. He's a career .300 hitter and there isn't any reason to think he won't be there in 2010. The homers have him on pace for 25, which is about right, and the steals are great too. In 2007, Wright was hitting .244 with zero homers at the end of April, and finished at .325 30/30.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians
The Truth: Sizemore may need to look at himself in the mirror, as his .220 average, no homer, one steal April has bust written all over it.
The Verdict: I have no idea what is wrong with Grady. His walk rate is slightly down, but he just isn't making hard contact most of the time. Coming off an injury plagued 2009 when he hit just .248 with 18 jacks in 436 ABs, it is time to stop believing Grady is a first round fantasy talent? I cannot recommend buying unless it's bargain city. Don't trade a player close to star level thinking you are buying low. You actually may be buying low, but there isn't a lot of optimism if the steals aren't there.
Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks
The Truth: Upton is batting .203 with three homers and left yesterday's game with a bruised shin. He has three steals to go along with the homers.
The Verdict: You have about ten more days to buy low, and I'd pay full price if I had to. In 2009, Upton finished April at .250 with two homers and one steal. He then hit .373 with seven homers and five steals in May. It's coming again, trust me.
Nick Markakis, OF Orioles
The Truth: Nick the stick is hitting .282, but has no homers and just three RBI for the Orioles in 2010. He's also been shut out on the basepaths, with zero steals (in one atttempt).
The Verdict: Markakis is another slow starter who should get it going as the calendar turns to May. However, I do wonder if this is a guy we've all overrated because he was a young speed/power prospect that saw success early (kinda like Hunter Pence?). In 2007 Markakis smacked 23 homers and stole 18 bags while hitting .300. Since then, the average has remained, but the homers have fallen each year (23-20-18) as have the steals (18-10-6). Is it possible we've already seen the fantasy peak of Markakis? I think it's likely. I still see 20 homers this year and a .300 average, but without any speed, Markakis isn't better than Choo, Abreu, Hunter, Rios, or any other outfielder who is in that 20 home run range but has more speed to offer.
Cheers,
TFAM
David Wright, 3B, Mets
The Truth: Wright, coming off a strange 2009 campaign where he lost all his magical powers and hit only 10 dingers, is batting just .222 on April 26. He also has three home runs and six stolen bases.
The Verdict: You should be buying Wright now. He's a career .300 hitter and there isn't any reason to think he won't be there in 2010. The homers have him on pace for 25, which is about right, and the steals are great too. In 2007, Wright was hitting .244 with zero homers at the end of April, and finished at .325 30/30.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians
The Truth: Sizemore may need to look at himself in the mirror, as his .220 average, no homer, one steal April has bust written all over it.
The Verdict: I have no idea what is wrong with Grady. His walk rate is slightly down, but he just isn't making hard contact most of the time. Coming off an injury plagued 2009 when he hit just .248 with 18 jacks in 436 ABs, it is time to stop believing Grady is a first round fantasy talent? I cannot recommend buying unless it's bargain city. Don't trade a player close to star level thinking you are buying low. You actually may be buying low, but there isn't a lot of optimism if the steals aren't there.
Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks
The Truth: Upton is batting .203 with three homers and left yesterday's game with a bruised shin. He has three steals to go along with the homers.
The Verdict: You have about ten more days to buy low, and I'd pay full price if I had to. In 2009, Upton finished April at .250 with two homers and one steal. He then hit .373 with seven homers and five steals in May. It's coming again, trust me.
Nick Markakis, OF Orioles
The Truth: Nick the stick is hitting .282, but has no homers and just three RBI for the Orioles in 2010. He's also been shut out on the basepaths, with zero steals (in one atttempt).
The Verdict: Markakis is another slow starter who should get it going as the calendar turns to May. However, I do wonder if this is a guy we've all overrated because he was a young speed/power prospect that saw success early (kinda like Hunter Pence?). In 2007 Markakis smacked 23 homers and stole 18 bags while hitting .300. Since then, the average has remained, but the homers have fallen each year (23-20-18) as have the steals (18-10-6). Is it possible we've already seen the fantasy peak of Markakis? I think it's likely. I still see 20 homers this year and a .300 average, but without any speed, Markakis isn't better than Choo, Abreu, Hunter, Rios, or any other outfielder who is in that 20 home run range but has more speed to offer.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, April 25, 2010
As Seen on TV
The NFL Draft delivered a bit of an interruption in the baseball coverage this week, and yes, I'm still shaking my head over the Kansas City Chiefs. Jamaal Charles, we hardly knew ye. It isn't that bad, I'm being overly dramatic, but it ticks me off.
Anyway, here is what I've been noticing from watching the games and peeking at some stats over the last few days.
Chase Headley is now hitting cleanup in San Diego. He's also hitting .379 with five steals. Scouts see breakout potential in Chase this year.
Jay Bruce is starting to percolate. I wouldn't keep him on the bench this week.
Pudge Rodriguez is leading the majors in hitting at .434. I'm not sure if you could get anything dealing him, but know this. Pudge is a notoriously fast starter, and will wear down as the season goes along.
Kelly Johnson is on fire, with three homers in his last two games, and seven hits in his last four. He will be an above average MI all year long.
I'd buy low on Jon Lester and Justin Upton right now. Verlander too.
I haven't bee able to see Liriano pitch yet. Actually, ironically, I was at Target Field for his home start against Boston where he threw up the zeroes, but I couldn't really see him. I'm on it this week, and I'll let you know if his slider is back. I may have been wrong on him for 2010. We'll see. Delmon, he's the same guy. This I know for sure. Actually, the same guy plus about five SBs.
Justin Smoak is 0-for-5, but he has drawn three walks. That's a good sign, and it's a big reason he's in the show and Chris Davis isn't. Smoak has the prospect pedigree, can hit for average and power, and should be in lineups for this week.
That was one dominant effort from Phil Hughes the other night. I need to see him live too. I like him, he just may not ever have dominant numbers, due to the division, the ballpark, and a fastball that is straight as an arrow. Right now, ride him while he's hot.
Two guys I was down on in March and I haven't changed my opinion? Rich Harden and Jake Peavy. The AL and those ballparks are going to continue to crush these guys. Peavy isn't 1.84 WHIP bad, but he's not more than your fourth for fifth starter either. I could just cut Harden at this point.
What is wrong with Grady Sizemore? Anyone have any inside info.?
Carlos Gomez hasn't made headlines since opening day, but he is still getting a lot of PT right now, and he's running, with six steals overall, and five since April 15.
I am starting to believe in Barry Zito, and think he can keep pitching well. The Giants staff should be given credit (along with Zito, of course) for an amazing salvation project.
Is there anyone else you wnat to know about? Please use the chatroll feature to ask a question.
Cheers,
TFAM
Anyway, here is what I've been noticing from watching the games and peeking at some stats over the last few days.
Chase Headley is now hitting cleanup in San Diego. He's also hitting .379 with five steals. Scouts see breakout potential in Chase this year.
Jay Bruce is starting to percolate. I wouldn't keep him on the bench this week.
Pudge Rodriguez is leading the majors in hitting at .434. I'm not sure if you could get anything dealing him, but know this. Pudge is a notoriously fast starter, and will wear down as the season goes along.
Kelly Johnson is on fire, with three homers in his last two games, and seven hits in his last four. He will be an above average MI all year long.
I'd buy low on Jon Lester and Justin Upton right now. Verlander too.
I haven't bee able to see Liriano pitch yet. Actually, ironically, I was at Target Field for his home start against Boston where he threw up the zeroes, but I couldn't really see him. I'm on it this week, and I'll let you know if his slider is back. I may have been wrong on him for 2010. We'll see. Delmon, he's the same guy. This I know for sure. Actually, the same guy plus about five SBs.
Justin Smoak is 0-for-5, but he has drawn three walks. That's a good sign, and it's a big reason he's in the show and Chris Davis isn't. Smoak has the prospect pedigree, can hit for average and power, and should be in lineups for this week.
That was one dominant effort from Phil Hughes the other night. I need to see him live too. I like him, he just may not ever have dominant numbers, due to the division, the ballpark, and a fastball that is straight as an arrow. Right now, ride him while he's hot.
Two guys I was down on in March and I haven't changed my opinion? Rich Harden and Jake Peavy. The AL and those ballparks are going to continue to crush these guys. Peavy isn't 1.84 WHIP bad, but he's not more than your fourth for fifth starter either. I could just cut Harden at this point.
What is wrong with Grady Sizemore? Anyone have any inside info.?
Carlos Gomez hasn't made headlines since opening day, but he is still getting a lot of PT right now, and he's running, with six steals overall, and five since April 15.
I am starting to believe in Barry Zito, and think he can keep pitching well. The Giants staff should be given credit (along with Zito, of course) for an amazing salvation project.
Is there anyone else you wnat to know about? Please use the chatroll feature to ask a question.
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, April 23, 2010
Initial draft reactions
So, my initial reaction is, this has to be the all-time worst draft for dynasty league team...and yes, that team is the Demolition Ninja Bombers (again, the Gordon Korman reference).
To recap, my offseason has already been just short of a total disaster. Big Ben turns into a frat boy, the Chiefs decide that Thomas Jones needs to reprise the Larry Johnson role, Kurt Warner (predictably) retired, and Antonio Bryant is no longer a number one receiver.
Onto the draft, where the Chiefs are due to take another back soon. First Jones, then McCluster, who I love, but is a third down back who threatens to steal even more touches from Jamaal, who only was the best runner in the league for the last half of 2009. What are they thinking? McCluster in the slot? I don't get it.
To make matters worse, a team that could have used Dexter, the Vikings, try to chop away at the value of AP by trading UP and taking Toby Gerhart. If he steals goal line carries from AP, I'm gonna blow.
In the non-complaint department, Ryan Matthews is going to be a good fantasy back from the start, purley based on the talent and system around him. If he's actually really good, that's even better. Spiller to Buffalo is a bit of a buzzkill, I see a bit of a struggle for CJ, due to the lack of a supporting cast. Dez Bryant to Dallas is good for both parties. I can see 8-10 TDs right away. So long Roy Williams. Matthews and Bryant are the top two picks in rookie drafts, to me, and it isn't close in dynasty formats.
I think Gresham helps the entire Bengals passing game, especially Palmer.
I think the 49ers offense gets an upgrade too with the two OLs in the first. Gore, Smith, Davis and Crabtree see a small boost in value.
Demaryus Thomas, the Broncos first round WR, averaged 25.1 YPC in 2009. He's a big downfield threat. I haven't seen him, but it's tantalizing.
Jahvid Best is going to get a lot of action in Detroit...on the football field. I like the direction of that offense.
Hardesty (Cleveland) and Tate (Houston) appear to be going to situations that are going to be favorable as far as getting an opportunity. I rate Hardesty higher now due to the obvious Kubiak factor.
I like Arrelious Benn, and I like that Tampa has no choice but to play him.
I wouldn't draft any rookie quarterback outside of Bradford. Right now, off the top of my head...Bradford is in the 20-25 range for QBs in redraft leagues.
Brandon LaFell is another WR who is in a great situation in Carolina, at least as far as playing time. Muhammad seems like he's 55-years-old.
Cheers,
TFAM
To recap, my offseason has already been just short of a total disaster. Big Ben turns into a frat boy, the Chiefs decide that Thomas Jones needs to reprise the Larry Johnson role, Kurt Warner (predictably) retired, and Antonio Bryant is no longer a number one receiver.
Onto the draft, where the Chiefs are due to take another back soon. First Jones, then McCluster, who I love, but is a third down back who threatens to steal even more touches from Jamaal, who only was the best runner in the league for the last half of 2009. What are they thinking? McCluster in the slot? I don't get it.
To make matters worse, a team that could have used Dexter, the Vikings, try to chop away at the value of AP by trading UP and taking Toby Gerhart. If he steals goal line carries from AP, I'm gonna blow.
In the non-complaint department, Ryan Matthews is going to be a good fantasy back from the start, purley based on the talent and system around him. If he's actually really good, that's even better. Spiller to Buffalo is a bit of a buzzkill, I see a bit of a struggle for CJ, due to the lack of a supporting cast. Dez Bryant to Dallas is good for both parties. I can see 8-10 TDs right away. So long Roy Williams. Matthews and Bryant are the top two picks in rookie drafts, to me, and it isn't close in dynasty formats.
I think Gresham helps the entire Bengals passing game, especially Palmer.
I think the 49ers offense gets an upgrade too with the two OLs in the first. Gore, Smith, Davis and Crabtree see a small boost in value.
Demaryus Thomas, the Broncos first round WR, averaged 25.1 YPC in 2009. He's a big downfield threat. I haven't seen him, but it's tantalizing.
Jahvid Best is going to get a lot of action in Detroit...on the football field. I like the direction of that offense.
Hardesty (Cleveland) and Tate (Houston) appear to be going to situations that are going to be favorable as far as getting an opportunity. I rate Hardesty higher now due to the obvious Kubiak factor.
I like Arrelious Benn, and I like that Tampa has no choice but to play him.
I wouldn't draft any rookie quarterback outside of Bradford. Right now, off the top of my head...Bradford is in the 20-25 range for QBs in redraft leagues.
Brandon LaFell is another WR who is in a great situation in Carolina, at least as far as playing time. Muhammad seems like he's 55-years-old.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Ten Fantasy NFL Draft Storylines
I'll leave the mocks to others, as I can guarantee that I have spent exactly zero minutes doing any of my own legwork to try and figure out what the different teams will do in the draft tomorrow night. However, I've watched a lot of these guys play, and I may know a thing or two about fantasy football. So I've decided to post the storylines that I find most intriguing heading into the three day marathon ahead. Am I missing anything?
1. Ben Roethlisberger -- If he gets dealt, the fallout will be huge and will likely have an impact on the fantasy fortunes of 10 or so players. Certainly enough to require a separate blog post.
2. San Diego's running game -- I assume they are going to draft a back, and, as long as it isn't another Sproles type (and why would they do that?) he should be a touchdown machine. It doesn't even really matter if they use a first, second or third rounder here, I'll have unconditional positive regard.
3. Dez Bryant -- He is the lone elite WR in this class, and he's got a chance to be special. He has the size and speed, he just needs a good landing spot. New England? Check!
4. C.J. Spiller -- Peter King and the SI folks have him going to the Jags? That would be a blow to CJ and MJD. Here's hoping for Seattle.
5. Houston's running game -- Rumors swirl that the Kubiak's want another back so they can screw with all of us a little more. Kiper has them taking Toby Gerhart, who could be a touchdown machine, as long as he doesn't fumble in spring practice!
6. Denver's passing game -- By my count, we have Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokely, and Brandon Lloyd as the current WRs in Denver and they have no experienced pass catching tight end. Whatever reciever goes to Mile High (likely in the second round), should get a chance to make plays in 2010.
7. Jahvid Best, Joe McKnight, and Dexter McCluster -- All three of these backs are flat out burners who can do major damage in the open field. I could see teams like Washington or Detroit, who are going to be better offenses and don't have a scatback, jumping on these guys and counting on them to make major contributions.
8. Sam Bradford -- Looks like he'll be a Ram, and he should start right away. I think that's good news for the entitre offense, especially Steven Jackson.
9. Jermaine Gresham -- By all accounts he's a better fantasy bet out of the gate than Pettigrew was a year ago. The Patriots and Bengals would be fantasy friendly landing spots for this Sooner.
10. Danario Alexander -- I can't figure out why a guy with 113 catches, 1781 yards and 14 TDs isn't projected in the first few rounds. Huge (6'4 and change) target who could be a red zone weapon. Colston didn't wow anyone with speed either. It's all about production. He's my draft fantasy sleeper.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. Ben Roethlisberger -- If he gets dealt, the fallout will be huge and will likely have an impact on the fantasy fortunes of 10 or so players. Certainly enough to require a separate blog post.
2. San Diego's running game -- I assume they are going to draft a back, and, as long as it isn't another Sproles type (and why would they do that?) he should be a touchdown machine. It doesn't even really matter if they use a first, second or third rounder here, I'll have unconditional positive regard.
3. Dez Bryant -- He is the lone elite WR in this class, and he's got a chance to be special. He has the size and speed, he just needs a good landing spot. New England? Check!
4. C.J. Spiller -- Peter King and the SI folks have him going to the Jags? That would be a blow to CJ and MJD. Here's hoping for Seattle.
5. Houston's running game -- Rumors swirl that the Kubiak's want another back so they can screw with all of us a little more. Kiper has them taking Toby Gerhart, who could be a touchdown machine, as long as he doesn't fumble in spring practice!
6. Denver's passing game -- By my count, we have Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokely, and Brandon Lloyd as the current WRs in Denver and they have no experienced pass catching tight end. Whatever reciever goes to Mile High (likely in the second round), should get a chance to make plays in 2010.
7. Jahvid Best, Joe McKnight, and Dexter McCluster -- All three of these backs are flat out burners who can do major damage in the open field. I could see teams like Washington or Detroit, who are going to be better offenses and don't have a scatback, jumping on these guys and counting on them to make major contributions.
8. Sam Bradford -- Looks like he'll be a Ram, and he should start right away. I think that's good news for the entitre offense, especially Steven Jackson.
9. Jermaine Gresham -- By all accounts he's a better fantasy bet out of the gate than Pettigrew was a year ago. The Patriots and Bengals would be fantasy friendly landing spots for this Sooner.
10. Danario Alexander -- I can't figure out why a guy with 113 catches, 1781 yards and 14 TDs isn't projected in the first few rounds. Huge (6'4 and change) target who could be a red zone weapon. Colston didn't wow anyone with speed either. It's all about production. He's my draft fantasy sleeper.
Cheers,
TFAM
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
UPDATE: Ian Poulter withdrew from the tournament Wednesday. He says his next event will be the Players.
UPDATE UPDATE: Steve Stricker has withdrawn too. Wow, ugly day for the Zurich. I believe that makes Sergio (at 23) the top ranked player in the field this week, and he's playing terribly.
Not a lot of star power this week in New Orleans, where only two of the top ten players in the world will be teeing it up while the rest of the golf world waits for Quail Hollow and the Players the next two weeks, both events that Tiger and Phil are likely to play. Speaking of those two, did you know Mickelson has won each of the last three tourneys where both were in the field? I found that interesting.
The two names in the top ten this week are Stricker and Poulter, who are both good bets on this course (TPC Avondale) which has hosted this event four times (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009). Before that, other venues were in play, so you may just want to ignore past results besides those four years. I will be doing that here. Anyway, Poulter is playing well and tied for 13th here in 2009 and Stricker has a seventh and 11th in his last three tries.
Other favorites this week include Charles Howell, who has a GREAT record here including a second last year, BUT, three of his top tens in this event were at another course. He is playing well, but isn't the slam dunk he appears to be on paper. Jerry Kelly is the defender, but he lost his game after the ace at Hilton Head and didn't play well on the weekend. Choi is here, but he certainly ran out of steam after his opening 64 last week. It will be interesting to see if he gets it back. Justin Rose wouldn't surprise me this week...he's been playing well all year.
Among the lesser names with success on this course are last week's runner up Brian Davis (19, 13, 17, CUT), and the more impressive Tim Petrovic (WIN, 7, 11, 24). I also like Toms this week, as he's a Louisiana native and finished fifth last year. He also seems to be playing better than earlier in the year with a solid showing at Augusta under his belt.
Finally, three more guys I like this week are Steve Marino, Andres Romero and Rory Sabbatini. Marino finished fifth last year and is coming off three top 15 finishes in a row in 2010. Sabbs finished second last year and looked good over the weekend at the Verizon last week, and Romero is the 2008 winner who goes on both birdie and bogey binges. Hopefully, the good Romero shows this week.
Most Talent
Poulter
Sergio
Stricker
Choi
Rose
Course History
Petrovic
Kelly
Stricker
Austin
Romero
Who's Hot
Choi
Marino
Rose
Davis
Poulter
Who's Not?
Sergio
Imada
Mediate
Snedeker
Romero
My Picks
Marino
Poulter
Stricker
Rose
Petrovic
Cheers,
TFAM
UPDATE UPDATE: Steve Stricker has withdrawn too. Wow, ugly day for the Zurich. I believe that makes Sergio (at 23) the top ranked player in the field this week, and he's playing terribly.
Not a lot of star power this week in New Orleans, where only two of the top ten players in the world will be teeing it up while the rest of the golf world waits for Quail Hollow and the Players the next two weeks, both events that Tiger and Phil are likely to play. Speaking of those two, did you know Mickelson has won each of the last three tourneys where both were in the field? I found that interesting.
The two names in the top ten this week are Stricker and Poulter, who are both good bets on this course (TPC Avondale) which has hosted this event four times (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009). Before that, other venues were in play, so you may just want to ignore past results besides those four years. I will be doing that here. Anyway, Poulter is playing well and tied for 13th here in 2009 and Stricker has a seventh and 11th in his last three tries.
Other favorites this week include Charles Howell, who has a GREAT record here including a second last year, BUT, three of his top tens in this event were at another course. He is playing well, but isn't the slam dunk he appears to be on paper. Jerry Kelly is the defender, but he lost his game after the ace at Hilton Head and didn't play well on the weekend. Choi is here, but he certainly ran out of steam after his opening 64 last week. It will be interesting to see if he gets it back. Justin Rose wouldn't surprise me this week...he's been playing well all year.
Among the lesser names with success on this course are last week's runner up Brian Davis (19, 13, 17, CUT), and the more impressive Tim Petrovic (WIN, 7, 11, 24). I also like Toms this week, as he's a Louisiana native and finished fifth last year. He also seems to be playing better than earlier in the year with a solid showing at Augusta under his belt.
Finally, three more guys I like this week are Steve Marino, Andres Romero and Rory Sabbatini. Marino finished fifth last year and is coming off three top 15 finishes in a row in 2010. Sabbs finished second last year and looked good over the weekend at the Verizon last week, and Romero is the 2008 winner who goes on both birdie and bogey binges. Hopefully, the good Romero shows this week.
Most Talent
Poulter
Sergio
Stricker
Choi
Rose
Course History
Petrovic
Kelly
Stricker
Austin
Romero
Who's Hot
Choi
Marino
Rose
Davis
Poulter
Who's Not?
Sergio
Imada
Mediate
Snedeker
Romero
My Picks
Marino
Poulter
Stricker
Rose
Petrovic
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, April 19, 2010
You like Ike?
My buddy Hank is already going crazy on the fantasy baseball waiver wire this season, setting the pace for our league with his 24 moves, making up almost a fourth of the league's total. Needless to say, that means most of the moves Hank makes are less than noteworthy. However, he was the first to jump on Ike Davis yesterday, as the news broke that the Mets had DFA'd Mike Jacobs, and were going to turn to the rookie to man first base at Citi Field.
So, the real question here is, is Ike Davis worth anything? Yes and no. I didn't include him on my ten prospects list at the beginning of the season because, frankly, there were 10-15 guys I was more confident about for 2010 than Davis, who is a slugger and most certainly not a runner. Davis is a 2008 first rounder out of Arizona State and is coming off a season in the minors where he hot 20 bombs and posted an OPS of .906, splitting the season between A+/AA. I like that he has some pop and can take a walk, I hate that he can't hit lefties and that Citi Field plays like a U.S. National Park.
The upside here is probably something short of what Chris Davis was able to accomplish in 2008. Davis can be a fastball murdering bat that does some damage during his first trip around the league. The downside is that of Chris Davis circa 2009. If the book gets out that you can get him out a certain way, does he have enough professional ABs to adjust? Also, Texas and New York are polar opposites as far as ballparks...
You can take a flier here if you have some trash on your roster to dump...it shouldn't take long to figure out what kind of Davis we're going to get. He's supposed to play every day and bat sixth.
Oh, and to Hank's credit, he's posted some trash talking material on our league webpage.
Cheers,
TFAM
So, the real question here is, is Ike Davis worth anything? Yes and no. I didn't include him on my ten prospects list at the beginning of the season because, frankly, there were 10-15 guys I was more confident about for 2010 than Davis, who is a slugger and most certainly not a runner. Davis is a 2008 first rounder out of Arizona State and is coming off a season in the minors where he hot 20 bombs and posted an OPS of .906, splitting the season between A+/AA. I like that he has some pop and can take a walk, I hate that he can't hit lefties and that Citi Field plays like a U.S. National Park.
The upside here is probably something short of what Chris Davis was able to accomplish in 2008. Davis can be a fastball murdering bat that does some damage during his first trip around the league. The downside is that of Chris Davis circa 2009. If the book gets out that you can get him out a certain way, does he have enough professional ABs to adjust? Also, Texas and New York are polar opposites as far as ballparks...
You can take a flier here if you have some trash on your roster to dump...it shouldn't take long to figure out what kind of Davis we're going to get. He's supposed to play every day and bat sixth.
Oh, and to Hank's credit, he's posted some trash talking material on our league webpage.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, April 18, 2010
As Seen on TV
How sick was it that I tuned in to the Cardinals Mets tilt in the 12th inning of a 0-0 game and the Mets had one hit? Cue up Uecker.
Did you see who started that game for the Cards? Jaime Garcia. I know it is a small sample, but Garcia is 1-0 with 10 K in 13 IP and has an .069 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in two starts. This guy was a legit prospect before his Tommy John, plus the Cardinals always work magic with the staff.
In the same series, Oliver Perez, for one night, earned some of his money. Through one good and one bad start his WHIP is 1.25. That's the stat to watch for Perez.
Got to see some of Ubaldo last night. Nasty stuff, just nasty. I hope his arm holds up, though if it doesn't it will make me look smarter.
Brett Anderson pitches today. He's got a zero ERA through two starts.
I'm not sold at all on Francoeur and his .381 BA, but he's been streaky before. May as well ride him while he's cookin'. Ditto on Casey McGehee and Jose Guillen, BTW.
Phil Hughes made his first start this week, and while he did need a lot of pitches to get through 5+ (five walks), he did strike out six and get a win against the Angels in Yankee Stadium.
It's April 18 and your NL ERA leaders are.....? Anyone? Livan Hernandez, Brad Penny and Carlos Silva!
For all the hype about Elvis Andrus' speed in 2010, he has just one SB, meanwhile Rajai Davis, another preseason speed fave, has seven and is leading the majors. That's Ricky being Ricky.
Brandon Wood looks lost at the dish. The ABs he takes are just awful. I think he's on the 4A all-star squad.
Still waiting for a huge group of stars to start hitting. Sizemore, Dunn, A-Rod, Bay, Lee, Markakis, Hamilton and many others are stuck in neutral. I expect to see all of them get it in to gear shortly. Don't make the mistake of leaving them on the bench due to two poor weeks.
Cheers,
TFAM
Did you see who started that game for the Cards? Jaime Garcia. I know it is a small sample, but Garcia is 1-0 with 10 K in 13 IP and has an .069 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in two starts. This guy was a legit prospect before his Tommy John, plus the Cardinals always work magic with the staff.
In the same series, Oliver Perez, for one night, earned some of his money. Through one good and one bad start his WHIP is 1.25. That's the stat to watch for Perez.
Got to see some of Ubaldo last night. Nasty stuff, just nasty. I hope his arm holds up, though if it doesn't it will make me look smarter.
Brett Anderson pitches today. He's got a zero ERA through two starts.
I'm not sold at all on Francoeur and his .381 BA, but he's been streaky before. May as well ride him while he's cookin'. Ditto on Casey McGehee and Jose Guillen, BTW.
Phil Hughes made his first start this week, and while he did need a lot of pitches to get through 5+ (five walks), he did strike out six and get a win against the Angels in Yankee Stadium.
It's April 18 and your NL ERA leaders are.....? Anyone? Livan Hernandez, Brad Penny and Carlos Silva!
For all the hype about Elvis Andrus' speed in 2010, he has just one SB, meanwhile Rajai Davis, another preseason speed fave, has seven and is leading the majors. That's Ricky being Ricky.
Brandon Wood looks lost at the dish. The ABs he takes are just awful. I think he's on the 4A all-star squad.
Still waiting for a huge group of stars to start hitting. Sizemore, Dunn, A-Rod, Bay, Lee, Markakis, Hamilton and many others are stuck in neutral. I expect to see all of them get it in to gear shortly. Don't make the mistake of leaving them on the bench due to two poor weeks.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Prospect Proclamations
For those of you looking to jump on the next big thing promoted to the show, here are a few names to keep an eye on as we move into the beginning of the promotion season. Remember, Evan Longoria didn't spend more than a couple of weeks in the minors in 2008 before making the jump. If you recall, I wrote here about ten guys to keep an eye on this year as afr as prospects go. I'll touch on a few of those guys today and a few who didn't make the list.
Your early home run leader in the minor leagues? Carlos Santana. He's hitting .438 and has four jacks in 16 ABs. He's on the come, it's a matter of when. If Lou Marson has anything to say about it, Santana will be here tomorrow.
Pedro Alvarez is tied for second in homers with three, but he has only three hits in 17 ABs. Yep, all the hits are homers. Alvarez is still a June/July guy.
Justin Smoak and Mike Stanton each have two homers and are off to good starts. Some people jumped off the Smoak bandwagon late in 2009 when his power dropped after a slight injury. Time to jump back on...
For those of you who are curious about last year's draft, Dustin Ackley is running early in the year, as he's stolen two bases. He's hitting just .111, but I like that he's running.
Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman both showed their stuff in their first outings of spring. For Starsburg, by all accounts, he could do more than hold his own at the major league level right now. He has struck out 11 in 7+ innings in his (two) starts (one was rain shortened) and allowed just six hits and one earned run. The plan is late May, early June, with a promotion to AAA in early May. Chapman whiffed nine (and walked just one) in four and two-thirds in his first start. He could get the call before Stras, but isn't as sure of a bet early, though I'd still plug and play him right away.
Michael Taylor and Chris Carter are in the A's system and are only seeing their chances increase for summer promotion as the team plays well, in my view. Both these guys can make the team better, and the team may push for a playoff spot in a weak AL West. Carter has two homers and a .974 OPS in 28 at bats this year.
Desmond Jennings suffered a wrist injury in the spring and is unlikely to p[lay before May. You know, Jennings is piling up an injury history in his minor league career.
Cheers,
TFAM
Your early home run leader in the minor leagues? Carlos Santana. He's hitting .438 and has four jacks in 16 ABs. He's on the come, it's a matter of when. If Lou Marson has anything to say about it, Santana will be here tomorrow.
Pedro Alvarez is tied for second in homers with three, but he has only three hits in 17 ABs. Yep, all the hits are homers. Alvarez is still a June/July guy.
Justin Smoak and Mike Stanton each have two homers and are off to good starts. Some people jumped off the Smoak bandwagon late in 2009 when his power dropped after a slight injury. Time to jump back on...
For those of you who are curious about last year's draft, Dustin Ackley is running early in the year, as he's stolen two bases. He's hitting just .111, but I like that he's running.
Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman both showed their stuff in their first outings of spring. For Starsburg, by all accounts, he could do more than hold his own at the major league level right now. He has struck out 11 in 7+ innings in his (two) starts (one was rain shortened) and allowed just six hits and one earned run. The plan is late May, early June, with a promotion to AAA in early May. Chapman whiffed nine (and walked just one) in four and two-thirds in his first start. He could get the call before Stras, but isn't as sure of a bet early, though I'd still plug and play him right away.
Michael Taylor and Chris Carter are in the A's system and are only seeing their chances increase for summer promotion as the team plays well, in my view. Both these guys can make the team better, and the team may push for a playoff spot in a weak AL West. Carter has two homers and a .974 OPS in 28 at bats this year.
Desmond Jennings suffered a wrist injury in the spring and is unlikely to p[lay before May. You know, Jennings is piling up an injury history in his minor league career.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Lesson Learned
I have a buddy who is playing fantasy baseball this year for the first time since he was tight rolling his pants in the early nineties....yes, he was a smidgen behind the curve. Anyway, we text back and forth quite a bit about some of the guys he has on his team and the values of different players around the league. Last Sunday, we talked and he said he was benching Kyle Blanks to start (insert average hitter here..can't remember who it was) becuase Blanks wasn't hitting and he was tired of him "shooting blanks". Well, here is the text I sent him Monday night:
"Looks like Kyle Blanks is teaching you a valuable lesson in patience tonight."
His response?
"$%^& I was just looking at that box score when you sent me that text."
Blanks ended up going 3-for-6 with a HR, 3 R and 5 RBI that night agianst Atlanta. The lesson to be learned is this: Sometimes patience has to take over, especially in April. If you thought Blanks was going to hit 25 jacks at the beginning of the year, you have to trust in that prediction, at least for a month. Switching lineups every day at this point, and especially taking out more talented guys for lesser varieties after only a few games is risky at best, and is sure to send you to the madhouse. Last year Justin Upton was DROPPED in my keeper league after he had a rough three weeks. Think that guy regrest that decision? I have Jay Bruce in a lineup on one of my two teams and he is just killing me right now. Still, I believed he was going to approach 30 HR before the season, so I have to trust in that call...the second I bench him, he's going to hit three in a week. Now, if Bruce ends up being Chris Davis circa 2009 and he is still under .200 with three HR on May 5, then something has to be done.
If you can pick up the next big thing on waivers right now and you have the roster space, do it, don't be TOO patient. But, you have to trust in your individual evaluations of players for at least the month of April.
"Looks like Kyle Blanks is teaching you a valuable lesson in patience tonight."
His response?
"$%^& I was just looking at that box score when you sent me that text."
Blanks ended up going 3-for-6 with a HR, 3 R and 5 RBI that night agianst Atlanta. The lesson to be learned is this: Sometimes patience has to take over, especially in April. If you thought Blanks was going to hit 25 jacks at the beginning of the year, you have to trust in that prediction, at least for a month. Switching lineups every day at this point, and especially taking out more talented guys for lesser varieties after only a few games is risky at best, and is sure to send you to the madhouse. Last year Justin Upton was DROPPED in my keeper league after he had a rough three weeks. Think that guy regrest that decision? I have Jay Bruce in a lineup on one of my two teams and he is just killing me right now. Still, I believed he was going to approach 30 HR before the season, so I have to trust in that call...the second I bench him, he's going to hit three in a week. Now, if Bruce ends up being Chris Davis circa 2009 and he is still under .200 with three HR on May 5, then something has to be done.
If you can pick up the next big thing on waivers right now and you have the roster space, do it, don't be TOO patient. But, you have to trust in your individual evaluations of players for at least the month of April.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Verizon Heritage
I hope Phil Mickelson really is as good of a family man as everybody has been saying, because it's being laid on pretty thick right now. I love Phil, but...some of this may be a little over the top. Anyway, huge win at Augusta for Mickelson, who once again conquers the major that suits his game like no other.
Now, onto the very anti-climatic Verizon Heritage at Hilton Head. For some reason I always think of DL3 and Stew Cink as monsters on this course, and they have won four and two times respectively here, but none of those wins have come since 2004. Also, those two guys aren't playing well enough to pick this week anyway.
So, who does that leave? Well, Brian Gay won by ten last year, which was a stunner considering he has only one other top ten and has been cut six times in ten tries. Aaron Baddeley has nothing worse than a 21st and has won this tournament as well in one of his four tries. Boo Weekley has two wins and a 13th in three tries as well, but both Badds and Boo have been subpar in 2010.
If you're looking for stars, my former mancrush Ian Poulter has withdrawn after running out of steam on the weekend at Augusta. Paul Casey and Jim Furyk are going to tee it up though and both have posted well here before. Casey has an 11th in his only start, and Furyk has two seconds and a fourth in his last five tries (but what was that 80 all about Thursday??????). Matt Kuchar has been incredilbly solid in every event he has entered in 2010. Lucas Glover hasn't, but he's a South Carolina boy...
A few more options come from the international contingent with Villegas, Allenby and Choi, who is clearly all the way back after a terrible 2009. None of these three have any good history here, but Choi is a solid pick this week.
Sleepers? Vaughn Taylor is coming off a playoff loss to Kim in Houston and has a third and a fourth here in five tries....Scott Verplank is coming off a T18 at Augusta and has three top tens and zero missed cuts here since 2000...and how about Rickie Fowler? He said on his Twitter feed that he loves this course. He's going to break through sometime in 2010, why not here?
Most Talent
Garcia?
Villegas
Casey
Furyk
Allenby
Course History
Weekley
Furyk
Cink
Gay
Love
Who's Hot
Choi
Kelly
Kuchar
Casey
Allenby
Who's Not
Garcia
Cink
Glover
Karlsson
Campbell
My Picks
Choi
Kuchar
Casey
Verplank
Fowler
Cheers,
TFAM
Now, onto the very anti-climatic Verizon Heritage at Hilton Head. For some reason I always think of DL3 and Stew Cink as monsters on this course, and they have won four and two times respectively here, but none of those wins have come since 2004. Also, those two guys aren't playing well enough to pick this week anyway.
So, who does that leave? Well, Brian Gay won by ten last year, which was a stunner considering he has only one other top ten and has been cut six times in ten tries. Aaron Baddeley has nothing worse than a 21st and has won this tournament as well in one of his four tries. Boo Weekley has two wins and a 13th in three tries as well, but both Badds and Boo have been subpar in 2010.
If you're looking for stars, my former mancrush Ian Poulter has withdrawn after running out of steam on the weekend at Augusta. Paul Casey and Jim Furyk are going to tee it up though and both have posted well here before. Casey has an 11th in his only start, and Furyk has two seconds and a fourth in his last five tries (but what was that 80 all about Thursday??????). Matt Kuchar has been incredilbly solid in every event he has entered in 2010. Lucas Glover hasn't, but he's a South Carolina boy...
A few more options come from the international contingent with Villegas, Allenby and Choi, who is clearly all the way back after a terrible 2009. None of these three have any good history here, but Choi is a solid pick this week.
Sleepers? Vaughn Taylor is coming off a playoff loss to Kim in Houston and has a third and a fourth here in five tries....Scott Verplank is coming off a T18 at Augusta and has three top tens and zero missed cuts here since 2000...and how about Rickie Fowler? He said on his Twitter feed that he loves this course. He's going to break through sometime in 2010, why not here?
Most Talent
Garcia?
Villegas
Casey
Furyk
Allenby
Course History
Weekley
Furyk
Cink
Gay
Love
Who's Hot
Choi
Kelly
Kuchar
Casey
Allenby
Who's Not
Garcia
Cink
Glover
Karlsson
Campbell
My Picks
Choi
Kuchar
Casey
Verplank
Fowler
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, April 12, 2010
As Seen on TV
This is exactly what what seen on TV today...Target Field.
Other than the new cathedral in downtown Minneapolis, there has been a lot going on in baseball the last few days, such as, like, such as...
Neftali Feliz and (presumably) Jim Johnson have taken over at closer for the Rangers and Orioles. I hinted at this Saturday. Feliz converted his first chance today, and is the verdadero negocio.
Staying with the Rangers, and staying in Espanol, Nelson Cruz is en fuego. No letdown from him this year.
Luke Hochevar of the Royals is pitching pretty well. He's 1-0 with a 2.84 and 7 K's in two starts. I need to see more K's before I'm buying, but I'm at least looking.
CBY is still hittng.
Two younger outfielders, Jay Bruce and Travis Snider, had better start hitting or they are going to end up in AAA.
Chris Perez looks like he's the next closer to go down. He has been brutal, and was again today when he faced three without getting an out. The Indians website lists Joe Smith as next on the depth chart, but that seems odd to me...
Guess who is leading the ML in stolen bases? Scott Podsednik of the Royals. He'll get to 50 if he keeps getting at bats.
Ryan Howard and Dustin Pedroia, two guys who normally start slow, are red hot, for what that's worth. Both could have monster years.
Also (quietly), Magglio Ordonez is sitting at .387 with two jacks.
Miguel Olivo is outplaying Chris Ianetta in Colorado. Wouldn't surprise me if Olivo starts pressing for the starting position.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, April 11, 2010
The New Sanchize?
Before we get to today's topic, Gaby Sanchez, I'll pass this along about Mike Gonzalez, who I mentioned yesterday. It seems he's out, and Jim Johnson may be in, for now.
Now, onto the new Sanchize.
Gaby Sanchez hasn't received half the hype of the Marlins other first base prospect, Logan Morrison, has over the last couple of years. However, Sanchez is the one in the bigs right now, and he hit a three run bomb yesterday and has checked in with a BA of .353 though his first 17 at bats. Yes, that's a very small sample size, but you could do worse at the CI position right now without question.
Sanchez has been off my radar, mostly due to the fact that the prospect writers I read haven't been overly excited about the U product. Yet, when I look at his minor league stats from the last two seasons, I see this:
2008: .314/.404./513 in 478 AB with 17 HR, 42 2B and 17 SB (AA)
2009: .289/.374/.475 in 318 AB with 16 HR, 11 2B, and 5 SB (AAA)
Certainly the stats dropped off as Sanchez moved up a level, but he has the minor league track record of someone who can hit in the majors. He also had 40 doubles in A ball in 2007. Isn't Gaby at least worth a look?
Cheers,
TFAM
Now, onto the new Sanchize.
Gaby Sanchez hasn't received half the hype of the Marlins other first base prospect, Logan Morrison, has over the last couple of years. However, Sanchez is the one in the bigs right now, and he hit a three run bomb yesterday and has checked in with a BA of .353 though his first 17 at bats. Yes, that's a very small sample size, but you could do worse at the CI position right now without question.
Sanchez has been off my radar, mostly due to the fact that the prospect writers I read haven't been overly excited about the U product. Yet, when I look at his minor league stats from the last two seasons, I see this:
2008: .314/.404./513 in 478 AB with 17 HR, 42 2B and 17 SB (AA)
2009: .289/.374/.475 in 318 AB with 16 HR, 11 2B, and 5 SB (AAA)
Certainly the stats dropped off as Sanchez moved up a level, but he has the minor league track record of someone who can hit in the majors. He also had 40 doubles in A ball in 2007. Isn't Gaby at least worth a look?
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, April 10, 2010
MaRKet MaDneSs
Which way will the wind blow in Target Field? We don't know yet (though this may give some sort of clue). What we do know, however, is the wind that is the fluctuating market of fantasy baseball players is swirling as the first week of play comes to a close.
Players on the rise...
JJ Hardy, SS, Twins
One thing I knew about James Jerry Hardy when he came to the Twins was that he carried with him a reputation of being an extremely streaky bat, and he can stay hot for awhile. In 2007, Hardy had 16 HR on June 3rd (he finished with 26), so he could keep it going in Minnesota. He should be owned in all leagues right now.
Tim Hudson, SP, Braves
I'm sold on Hudson. I started liking him toward the end of the spring when I saw the K's were piling up, then he goes out and gives up just three hits in his frist start of 2010.
Garrett Jones, OF, Pirates & Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays
Sell high. Right now.
Jon Rauch, RP, Twins
Four saves in four tries. I'm sure he isn't available anymore, but I'm impressed nonetheless. I was wrong on the Guerrier thing. It happens.
Chris B. Young, OF, Arizona
It's early, but I'm mildly excited. He's got two jacks and is hitting .400, also known as .190 better than last season. He can swipe 20 bags too.
Players on the fall...
David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
Francona can't keep playing him if he struggles all month. They've got Hermida and Lowell, both of whom could be more productive.
Frank Francisco, RP, Rangers
He was actually dropped in one of my leagues today (and picked up about three seconds later). Anyway, Saturday marked the second game in a row he blew a save, gave up three runs, and took a loss. Ouch. Feliz may be next in line.
Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
Bruce has been dreadful, which makes right now a great time to buy low. Remember that Justin Upton crapped the bed for three weeks last April before lift off.
Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers
Is the old Manny really gone? Seems like he's never going to be that guy again. It's early, but he really wasn't great in 2009.
Mike Gonzalez, RP, Orioles
Another closer on shaky ground after 2 IP, 2 L and 4 ER. Now the team says he is fixing his delivery. That sounds like a disaster. The team's website lists Jim Johnson as being next in line.
Cheers,
TFAM
Players on the rise...
JJ Hardy, SS, Twins
One thing I knew about James Jerry Hardy when he came to the Twins was that he carried with him a reputation of being an extremely streaky bat, and he can stay hot for awhile. In 2007, Hardy had 16 HR on June 3rd (he finished with 26), so he could keep it going in Minnesota. He should be owned in all leagues right now.
Tim Hudson, SP, Braves
I'm sold on Hudson. I started liking him toward the end of the spring when I saw the K's were piling up, then he goes out and gives up just three hits in his frist start of 2010.
Garrett Jones, OF, Pirates & Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays
Sell high. Right now.
Jon Rauch, RP, Twins
Four saves in four tries. I'm sure he isn't available anymore, but I'm impressed nonetheless. I was wrong on the Guerrier thing. It happens.
Chris B. Young, OF, Arizona
It's early, but I'm mildly excited. He's got two jacks and is hitting .400, also known as .190 better than last season. He can swipe 20 bags too.
Players on the fall...
David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
Francona can't keep playing him if he struggles all month. They've got Hermida and Lowell, both of whom could be more productive.
Frank Francisco, RP, Rangers
He was actually dropped in one of my leagues today (and picked up about three seconds later). Anyway, Saturday marked the second game in a row he blew a save, gave up three runs, and took a loss. Ouch. Feliz may be next in line.
Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
Bruce has been dreadful, which makes right now a great time to buy low. Remember that Justin Upton crapped the bed for three weeks last April before lift off.
Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers
Is the old Manny really gone? Seems like he's never going to be that guy again. It's early, but he really wasn't great in 2009.
Mike Gonzalez, RP, Orioles
Another closer on shaky ground after 2 IP, 2 L and 4 ER. Now the team says he is fixing his delivery. That sounds like a disaster. The team's website lists Jim Johnson as being next in line.
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, April 9, 2010
Chipper
It took a whole three games! Somehow (possibly because I strangely really wanted him) Chipper Jones ended up on both my squads this year. Now, three games into the mix, he's reportedly shelved with an oblique and may miss the Braves weekend series with San Francisco.
I can't say I'm surprised.
Someone asked me how I thought my auction went right after the proceedings a couple weeks ago and my biggest crticism at the time was not having my roster structured in a way where I could carry another third baseman. It's a daily league, and I need a guy to fill in for Larry's multitude of maladies. So, it may be so long for Travis Snider, as I really need to fix my roster.
If you own Chipper, you better have a backup 3B on your roster. If your benches are thin and you can't roster another, wait until he gets healthy and deal him. Look, I love his production, but he's going to miss 30+ games this year, and many of those will be of the -- a few here a few there -- variety. Those little things can really cost you in the counting categories over the course of a season.
Cheers,
TFAM
I can't say I'm surprised.
Someone asked me how I thought my auction went right after the proceedings a couple weeks ago and my biggest crticism at the time was not having my roster structured in a way where I could carry another third baseman. It's a daily league, and I need a guy to fill in for Larry's multitude of maladies. So, it may be so long for Travis Snider, as I really need to fix my roster.
If you own Chipper, you better have a backup 3B on your roster. If your benches are thin and you can't roster another, wait until he gets healthy and deal him. Look, I love his production, but he's going to miss 30+ games this year, and many of those will be of the -- a few here a few there -- variety. Those little things can really cost you in the counting categories over the course of a season.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
As Seen on TV
As Seen...baseball edition! Can't tell you how happy I am to say that. I'll be throwing this column up twice a week all season long to point out my observations from the boxscores, and more importantly, actually watching the games, of which I spend an unhealthy amount of time all summer long.
Here are my initial observations from the opening day (and Tuesday) round of games.
Did you hear the ESPN guys say Pedroia is going to try and hit 20 HR this year? I like it, but as an owner I hope the batting average stays above .300. The early power is something we didn't see a year ago though...
Granderson just torched his HR off Beckett...
Sabathia always starts slow. You knew what you were getting into, if you read the blog. Ditto Teixeira.
Did anyone else notice Papi? He looks so small compared to the past. I think he's cooked, and I can't believe Tito didn't pull him for Lowell with the game in the balance and a lefty on the mound last night.
Nice to see Alex Rios start fast....oh, and the Sox tried to steal just once, it was Teahen, and he was caught.
Two former promising teammates, Delmon and GoGo, each with a jack and a steal. I think Young will run a lot more this year. He just needs to get on base first. GoGo, it's one game.
JJ Hardy homers for the Twins Tuesday. He's a VERY streaky player. Wouldn't be a bad time for daily leaguers to take a shot.
Some of these lineups are nothing short of embarrassing. The Astros, Royals and A's general managers should be sued by the season ticket holders for those opening day editions.
Time to sell high on Garrett Jones. Trust me.
Marlon Byrd is hitting fifth for the Cubs...a nice spot to be indeed. He opened the season with a three run tater.
Nolan Reimold is hurting and may not be ready for the outfield for a month? Sigh. He and Dexter Fowler have lost the most value so far.
Cam Maybin K'd in his first three trips Monday. The Mike Stanton watch begins!
For those who were torched by Zambrano, can you take some solace in the fact that half the Cubs hits off him were bloop singles? No? Don't blame you.
That's two bombs in two days for Ian Stewart. That may not be a fluke.
Jason Heyward! Still, remember that Jordan Schaefer did the same thing in 2009.
Say what you want about Hideki Matsui's taste in film, but that guy is a tough out.
I love that Colby Rasmus started strong. Once he has the confidence, the sky is the limit for Colby.
Jon Rauch goes three up, three down with two K's for save number one.
Cheers,
TFAM
Here are my initial observations from the opening day (and Tuesday) round of games.
Did you hear the ESPN guys say Pedroia is going to try and hit 20 HR this year? I like it, but as an owner I hope the batting average stays above .300. The early power is something we didn't see a year ago though...
Granderson just torched his HR off Beckett...
Sabathia always starts slow. You knew what you were getting into, if you read the blog. Ditto Teixeira.
Did anyone else notice Papi? He looks so small compared to the past. I think he's cooked, and I can't believe Tito didn't pull him for Lowell with the game in the balance and a lefty on the mound last night.
Nice to see Alex Rios start fast....oh, and the Sox tried to steal just once, it was Teahen, and he was caught.
Two former promising teammates, Delmon and GoGo, each with a jack and a steal. I think Young will run a lot more this year. He just needs to get on base first. GoGo, it's one game.
JJ Hardy homers for the Twins Tuesday. He's a VERY streaky player. Wouldn't be a bad time for daily leaguers to take a shot.
Some of these lineups are nothing short of embarrassing. The Astros, Royals and A's general managers should be sued by the season ticket holders for those opening day editions.
Time to sell high on Garrett Jones. Trust me.
Marlon Byrd is hitting fifth for the Cubs...a nice spot to be indeed. He opened the season with a three run tater.
Nolan Reimold is hurting and may not be ready for the outfield for a month? Sigh. He and Dexter Fowler have lost the most value so far.
Cam Maybin K'd in his first three trips Monday. The Mike Stanton watch begins!
For those who were torched by Zambrano, can you take some solace in the fact that half the Cubs hits off him were bloop singles? No? Don't blame you.
That's two bombs in two days for Ian Stewart. That may not be a fluke.
Jason Heyward! Still, remember that Jordan Schaefer did the same thing in 2009.
Say what you want about Hideki Matsui's taste in film, but that guy is a tough out.
I love that Colby Rasmus started strong. Once he has the confidence, the sky is the limit for Colby.
Jon Rauch goes three up, three down with two K's for save number one.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
The Masters
The best week of the sports year has rolled into full swing, with the Butler-Duke game being the highlight so far. Um, I'll take that UTEP pick back about now. Anyway, baseball will be all over this space in the upcoming days, but today, the space is reserved for the azaleas and Magnolia Lane, and you can only look at this blog between 3 and 6 PM on Thursday and Friday.
To start things off, I'm knee deep in Masters related action this week, and I should fill you in on how some of that is going. I'm in one of those A, B, and C pool leagues where you can pick two guys in each grouping. My picks were Harrington and Poulter (A), McDowell and Clark (B), and Kuchar and Eduardo Molinari (C). I could have taken two of Tiger, Phil and Ernie, but I wanted to win if I hit on my top guys, and I think Harrington and Poulter are going to be rare picks considering the names available in the A pool.
I'm also in a straight seven team snake draft where we each get six guys. The draft is going on as we speak, but the top 11 picks are off the board, and they are as follows.
Steve Stricker
Tiger Woods
Phil Mickelson
Ernie Els
Padraig Harrington
Paul Casey
Retief Goosen
Lee Westwood
Jim Furyk
Matt Kuchar
Ian Poulter
I had pick four, and have Els and Poulter. I LOVE that combo. They are both top five on my board for the week. I even offered to deal later picks for the chance to move from 11 to 10 and grab Poulter, but he picked Kuchar before seeing my email. Thank God.
Why do I love Ian Poulter so much? Gut feeling. I think he breaks out big this year and he's said himself Augusta and St. Andrews are the two major courses that suit his game best. Poulter hasn't top ten'd here, but he plays well, and his game is at a new level in 2010.
To me, Ernie and Tiger are the favorites. Ernie is playing his best and wants the blazer so badly. He plays well here and should be in the mix on Sunday. Tiger is always the favorite and if you think he isn't going to play well, you shouldn't be playing fantasy golf. Love Tiger this week.
The next tier is Harrington, Goosen, Mickelson, Stricker, Westwood and Poulter. All these guys should play well, with Lefty leading the charge with the two jackets. Goosen is playing really well and Paddy is close to form and is another multiple major winner. Stricker never had success here until his sixth in 2009, but he didn't have a lot of success anywhere prior to 2008-9. Westwood has knocked on the door in multiple majors the last couple years.
Of the previous non winners, Furyk, O'Hair, Watney, Ogilvy, Casey, Cink, Donald, Clark and Campbell all have played well here multiple times in the last five years. Of those guys, Watney, Clark, Casey (assuming health) and Furyk seem to be close to their better form right now.
Past winners include wildcards Freddy and Vijay, who seem unlikely to contend this year due to age and ails respectively. Cabrera, Weir, Z. Johnson and Immelman have also been in the winners circle in the past decade here, but none are playing well right now.
Sleepers? Steve Flesch has finished fifth and sixth the last two years. Charl Schwartzel hasn't played the hallowed grounds, but is clearly a top 20 player in the world right now. Kuchar is also playing very, very well, and his dad presumably won't be on the bag.
The Masters is obviously so star studded that a win by any of 20 or 30 players wouldn't come as a total shock. We haven't even mentioned Mahan, Allenby, Kaymer, Kim, Sergio, Villegas or Stenson and those guys are obvioulsy world class players as well. So, how do we sort out this mess?
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Els
Goosen
Mcilroy?
Course History
Woods
Mickelson
Els (Not lately, but five straight top 6's when he was on form)
Singh
Couples
Who's Hot?
Els
Kim
Goosen
Furyk
Schwartzel
Who's Not?
Mickelson
Z. Johnson
Glover
Garcia
Cabrera
My Picks (in order)
Woods
Els
Poulter
Harrington
Goosen
Mickelson
Stricker
Casey
Westwood
Schwartzel
Cheers,
TFAM
To start things off, I'm knee deep in Masters related action this week, and I should fill you in on how some of that is going. I'm in one of those A, B, and C pool leagues where you can pick two guys in each grouping. My picks were Harrington and Poulter (A), McDowell and Clark (B), and Kuchar and Eduardo Molinari (C). I could have taken two of Tiger, Phil and Ernie, but I wanted to win if I hit on my top guys, and I think Harrington and Poulter are going to be rare picks considering the names available in the A pool.
I'm also in a straight seven team snake draft where we each get six guys. The draft is going on as we speak, but the top 11 picks are off the board, and they are as follows.
Steve Stricker
Tiger Woods
Phil Mickelson
Ernie Els
Padraig Harrington
Paul Casey
Retief Goosen
Lee Westwood
Jim Furyk
Matt Kuchar
Ian Poulter
I had pick four, and have Els and Poulter. I LOVE that combo. They are both top five on my board for the week. I even offered to deal later picks for the chance to move from 11 to 10 and grab Poulter, but he picked Kuchar before seeing my email. Thank God.
Why do I love Ian Poulter so much? Gut feeling. I think he breaks out big this year and he's said himself Augusta and St. Andrews are the two major courses that suit his game best. Poulter hasn't top ten'd here, but he plays well, and his game is at a new level in 2010.
To me, Ernie and Tiger are the favorites. Ernie is playing his best and wants the blazer so badly. He plays well here and should be in the mix on Sunday. Tiger is always the favorite and if you think he isn't going to play well, you shouldn't be playing fantasy golf. Love Tiger this week.
The next tier is Harrington, Goosen, Mickelson, Stricker, Westwood and Poulter. All these guys should play well, with Lefty leading the charge with the two jackets. Goosen is playing really well and Paddy is close to form and is another multiple major winner. Stricker never had success here until his sixth in 2009, but he didn't have a lot of success anywhere prior to 2008-9. Westwood has knocked on the door in multiple majors the last couple years.
Of the previous non winners, Furyk, O'Hair, Watney, Ogilvy, Casey, Cink, Donald, Clark and Campbell all have played well here multiple times in the last five years. Of those guys, Watney, Clark, Casey (assuming health) and Furyk seem to be close to their better form right now.
Past winners include wildcards Freddy and Vijay, who seem unlikely to contend this year due to age and ails respectively. Cabrera, Weir, Z. Johnson and Immelman have also been in the winners circle in the past decade here, but none are playing well right now.
Sleepers? Steve Flesch has finished fifth and sixth the last two years. Charl Schwartzel hasn't played the hallowed grounds, but is clearly a top 20 player in the world right now. Kuchar is also playing very, very well, and his dad presumably won't be on the bag.
The Masters is obviously so star studded that a win by any of 20 or 30 players wouldn't come as a total shock. We haven't even mentioned Mahan, Allenby, Kaymer, Kim, Sergio, Villegas or Stenson and those guys are obvioulsy world class players as well. So, how do we sort out this mess?
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Els
Goosen
Mcilroy?
Course History
Woods
Mickelson
Els (Not lately, but five straight top 6's when he was on form)
Singh
Couples
Who's Hot?
Els
Kim
Goosen
Furyk
Schwartzel
Who's Not?
Mickelson
Z. Johnson
Glover
Garcia
Cabrera
My Picks (in order)
Woods
Els
Poulter
Harrington
Goosen
Mickelson
Stricker
Casey
Westwood
Schwartzel
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, April 5, 2010
Opening Day
We're less than an hour away and I'm still working through a few ideas for weekly baseball columns at TFAM. I'm thinking the Market Madness thing, which debuted last weekend, along with at least one As Seen on TV per week. After that, I think I'm going to be doing a weekly player feature, and hen just write what else comes to mind...I'm open to suggestions as well.
Just to get you fired up for the greatest day of the year, here's a little ditty from Mr. T.
If you listen closely at the end, he shouts, "I pity the Pirates"! It's just so classic.
Cheers,
TFAM
Just to get you fired up for the greatest day of the year, here's a little ditty from Mr. T.
If you listen closely at the end, he shouts, "I pity the Pirates"! It's just so classic.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, April 4, 2010
2010 MLB Predictions
On the morning of Dustin Pedroia's first four homer game of many this season, I thought I may offer up my predictions for the upcoming baseball season.
Quick side note...Rasual Butler, Brandon Rush and Danilo Gallinari, I NEED some threes today.
OK, back to the baseball.
AL East
Rays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
I love the Rays this year, Garza should make the leap, Price might, and Bossman Junior is going to start hitting bombs.
AL Central
Twins
White Sox
Tigers
Indians
Royals
I'm not buying the Sox rotation or the Tigers lineup at all.
AL West
Angels
Rangers
Mariners
A's
Los Angeles wins by default. I like the Rangers a lot, but who is going to pitch? Next year.
NL East
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Mets
Nats
I'm a Mets apologist and thought they may be a sleeper squad this year, then I saw Mike Jacobs was going to hit fourth and I dropped them from second to second-to-last. Jacobs is that bad.
NL Central
Cardinals
Reds
Cubs
Brewers
Pirates
Astros
The Buccos move out of the cellar! That's waht happens, Houston, when you spend $15 million on Brandon Lyon. Cards should cruise here.
NL West
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
The top four in this division are as tough to call as the top three in the AL East. I think the young snakes make the leap, and the Dodgers rotation, outside of Kershaw, leads to their demise.
Rays over Angels
Yankees over Twins
Phillies over Rockies
Cards over D'Backs
Rays over Yankees
Cardinals over Phillies
Rays over Cardinals to win the series in five games.
NL MVP: Pujols
AL MVP: Longoria
NL CY: Haren
AL CY: Felix
NL ROY: Heyward
AL ROY: Feliz
Fantasy MVP (relative to draft position): BJ Upton
Fantasy breakouts: Tommy Hanson, Matt Weiters, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Garza
Fantasy freefalls: Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Chad Billingsley, Johnny Damon
Cheers,
TFAM
Quick side note...Rasual Butler, Brandon Rush and Danilo Gallinari, I NEED some threes today.
OK, back to the baseball.
AL East
Rays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
I love the Rays this year, Garza should make the leap, Price might, and Bossman Junior is going to start hitting bombs.
AL Central
Twins
White Sox
Tigers
Indians
Royals
I'm not buying the Sox rotation or the Tigers lineup at all.
AL West
Angels
Rangers
Mariners
A's
Los Angeles wins by default. I like the Rangers a lot, but who is going to pitch? Next year.
NL East
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Mets
Nats
I'm a Mets apologist and thought they may be a sleeper squad this year, then I saw Mike Jacobs was going to hit fourth and I dropped them from second to second-to-last. Jacobs is that bad.
NL Central
Cardinals
Reds
Cubs
Brewers
Pirates
Astros
The Buccos move out of the cellar! That's waht happens, Houston, when you spend $15 million on Brandon Lyon. Cards should cruise here.
NL West
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
The top four in this division are as tough to call as the top three in the AL East. I think the young snakes make the leap, and the Dodgers rotation, outside of Kershaw, leads to their demise.
Rays over Angels
Yankees over Twins
Phillies over Rockies
Cards over D'Backs
Rays over Yankees
Cardinals over Phillies
Rays over Cardinals to win the series in five games.
NL MVP: Pujols
AL MVP: Longoria
NL CY: Haren
AL CY: Felix
NL ROY: Heyward
AL ROY: Feliz
Fantasy MVP (relative to draft position): BJ Upton
Fantasy breakouts: Tommy Hanson, Matt Weiters, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Garza
Fantasy freefalls: Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Chad Billingsley, Johnny Damon
Cheers,
TFAM
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