While I don't have a ton of time right now, I had my first (and most important), auction yesterday, and I figured I'd post my team at least. I may recap more in depth later, but hit me up if you have questions. Obviously, I'm a bit thin at RB. We had a $200 cap and start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 K, 1 DEF, 2 FLEX (of which one can be a QB). There are 11 teams in this league.
QB Romo (46)
QB Cassel (5)
QB Campbell (3)
QB Anderson (2)
RB Gore (43)
RB Spiller (18)
RB Morris (1)
RB Dixon (1)
WR Calvin (33)
WR Austin (22)
WR Welker (11)
WR Bowe (9)
WR Aromashodu (1)
K Vinatieri (1)
K J. Brown (1)
DEF Ravens
DEF Dolphins
That leaves me with this non bye week lineup:
Romo
Cassel
Gore
Spiller
CJ
Austin
Welker
Bowe
Kicker
Defense
Not too bad, I'd say, though I'll be searching for a WR for RB trade that makes sense to help me balance out my roster.
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, August 30, 2010
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Overall rankings
I've ranked each of the positions already, and you can find them pretty easily in the archives of the blog. Today, I'll give you the top 50 or so. That way, you can tell how I rank players versus players from another positions. This would be mainly for drafters, not those who auction, but I won't discriminate.
Keep in mind, these rankings assume one quarterback and mandatory tight end.
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Andre Johnson
6. Drew Brees
7. Aaron Rodgers
8. Frank Gore
9. Steven Jackson
10. Calvin Johnson
11. Ryan Matthews
12. Shonn Greene
13. Miles Austin
14. Peyton Manning
15. Tom Brady
16. Randy Moss
17. Reggie Wayne
18. Michael Turner
19. DeAngelo Williams
20. Larry Fitzgerald
21. Tony Romo
22. Greg Jennings
23. Jamaal Charles
24. Rashard Mendenhall
25. Brandon Marshall
26. Dwayne Bowe
27. Steve Smith (CAR)
28. Roddy White
29. Jermichael Finley
30. Matt Schaub
31. Beanie Wells
32. Phillip Rivers
33. Dallas Clark
34. Antonio Gates
35. Cedric Benson
36. Pierre Thomas
37. Ryan Grant
38. Knowshon Moreno
39. Vernon Davis
40. Marques Colston
41. Michael Crabtree
42. Jonothan Stewart
43. Joseph Addai
44. Marion Barber
45. LeSean McCoy
46. Brett Favre
47. Anquan Boldin
48. Jahvid Best
49. Arian Foster
50. Chad Ochocinco
Cheers,
TFAM
Keep in mind, these rankings assume one quarterback and mandatory tight end.
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Andre Johnson
6. Drew Brees
7. Aaron Rodgers
8. Frank Gore
9. Steven Jackson
10. Calvin Johnson
11. Ryan Matthews
12. Shonn Greene
13. Miles Austin
14. Peyton Manning
15. Tom Brady
16. Randy Moss
17. Reggie Wayne
18. Michael Turner
19. DeAngelo Williams
20. Larry Fitzgerald
21. Tony Romo
22. Greg Jennings
23. Jamaal Charles
24. Rashard Mendenhall
25. Brandon Marshall
26. Dwayne Bowe
27. Steve Smith (CAR)
28. Roddy White
29. Jermichael Finley
30. Matt Schaub
31. Beanie Wells
32. Phillip Rivers
33. Dallas Clark
34. Antonio Gates
35. Cedric Benson
36. Pierre Thomas
37. Ryan Grant
38. Knowshon Moreno
39. Vernon Davis
40. Marques Colston
41. Michael Crabtree
42. Jonothan Stewart
43. Joseph Addai
44. Marion Barber
45. LeSean McCoy
46. Brett Favre
47. Anquan Boldin
48. Jahvid Best
49. Arian Foster
50. Chad Ochocinco
Cheers,
TFAM
A peek at playoff schedules
For those of you who are overly confident that you'll be playing in the fantasy playoffs, here are a few things I've noticed by looking at the week 14-16 schedules of each team. You can use this unformation in your drafts, just don't put TOO much stock into it, as a lot can change in one year in the NFL.
Atlanta has two good matchups..
@CAR, @SEA, NO
Baltimore has three..
@HOU, NO, @CLE
Chicago is brutal..
NE, @MIN, NYJ
The Giants aren't much better...
@MIN, PHI, @GB
Tennessee has a great rushing schedule..
IND, HOU, @KC
Tampa is nice too...
@WAS, DET, SEA
I like San Fran..
SEA, @SD, @STL
Here is the full grid if you want to have it printed out for your draft. One more thing. It's clear to me that the worse defensive football (or at the very least the worst football in general) is played in the Western Divisions in both conferences. It just so happens that those two divisons go head-to-head in inter-conference play this season as well. So, in general, the most fantasy friendly schedules are going to come from those eight teams in those Western Divisions.
Cheers,
TFAM
Atlanta has two good matchups..
@CAR, @SEA, NO
Baltimore has three..
@HOU, NO, @CLE
Chicago is brutal..
NE, @MIN, NYJ
The Giants aren't much better...
@MIN, PHI, @GB
Tennessee has a great rushing schedule..
IND, HOU, @KC
Tampa is nice too...
@WAS, DET, SEA
I like San Fran..
SEA, @SD, @STL
Here is the full grid if you want to have it printed out for your draft. One more thing. It's clear to me that the worse defensive football (or at the very least the worst football in general) is played in the Western Divisions in both conferences. It just so happens that those two divisons go head-to-head in inter-conference play this season as well. So, in general, the most fantasy friendly schedules are going to come from those eight teams in those Western Divisions.
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, August 27, 2010
Ranking movers and shakers
As you know, I finished all of my rankings yesterday, but it has been a couple weeks since I started with the QBs, and much has changed. With that in mind, here are the players whose value has changed in my mind since I published my original rankings in the various positions.
Matt Leinart, Beanie Wells, Larry Fitzgerald
I'm in absolute panic mode on the Cards offense. I was down on Larry due to the Hot Tub Time Machine anyway, but I have a rule to not draft running backs linked to terrible quarterbacking if I can help it. Beanie is sliding down my rankings, as far as 14 or 15 in my mind. Leinart moves off the QB board.
Laurent Robinson
With Donnie Avery lost to the Rams WR corps, Robinson becomes an interesting late flier, especially if Sam Bradford wins the job. Slot in Robinson at that 34 spot in my rankings.
Leon Washington
The news out of Seattle is that he's currently number one on their RB depth chart. That means Leon moves well up the ranks, while Forsett drops considerably. They are both in the 30s now, and I'd rather have Leon, though the situation seems like a stayaway to me.
Laurence Maroney
Speaking of stayaways, Maroney is completely AWOL in the Pats rushing attack. I'd put Sammy Morris in his spot at 44, but this backfield is absolutely musical chairs.
Arian Foster
I know I'm going to regret this, but I may be falling for another Texan running back. With Ben Tate out, and Slaton returning kicks, it appears as though Foster is the guy. I think we can safely slot him in at that 24 spot in the ranks.
Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian
The receiving thing is obvious, as Rice and Harvin aren't really interesting to me at all, while Berrian gets a slight jump, maybe ten spots or so from 47 to the high thirties. I think Favre's value suffers slightly, though he is still number eight to me, and AP will be fine.
Jermichael Finley
I dropped him last year in my dynasty league in week one for Vernon Davis. Davis helped me capture a crown, but I'd switch back in a heartbeat right now. Finley is my new number one tight end.
Tomorrow (morning, maybe even tonight) I'm going to try and hit the overall top 50 and take a look at third year WRs.
Cheers,
TFAM
Matt Leinart, Beanie Wells, Larry Fitzgerald
I'm in absolute panic mode on the Cards offense. I was down on Larry due to the Hot Tub Time Machine anyway, but I have a rule to not draft running backs linked to terrible quarterbacking if I can help it. Beanie is sliding down my rankings, as far as 14 or 15 in my mind. Leinart moves off the QB board.
Laurent Robinson
With Donnie Avery lost to the Rams WR corps, Robinson becomes an interesting late flier, especially if Sam Bradford wins the job. Slot in Robinson at that 34 spot in my rankings.
Leon Washington
The news out of Seattle is that he's currently number one on their RB depth chart. That means Leon moves well up the ranks, while Forsett drops considerably. They are both in the 30s now, and I'd rather have Leon, though the situation seems like a stayaway to me.
Laurence Maroney
Speaking of stayaways, Maroney is completely AWOL in the Pats rushing attack. I'd put Sammy Morris in his spot at 44, but this backfield is absolutely musical chairs.
Arian Foster
I know I'm going to regret this, but I may be falling for another Texan running back. With Ben Tate out, and Slaton returning kicks, it appears as though Foster is the guy. I think we can safely slot him in at that 24 spot in the ranks.
Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian
The receiving thing is obvious, as Rice and Harvin aren't really interesting to me at all, while Berrian gets a slight jump, maybe ten spots or so from 47 to the high thirties. I think Favre's value suffers slightly, though he is still number eight to me, and AP will be fine.
Jermichael Finley
I dropped him last year in my dynasty league in week one for Vernon Davis. Davis helped me capture a crown, but I'd switch back in a heartbeat right now. Finley is my new number one tight end.
Tomorrow (morning, maybe even tonight) I'm going to try and hit the overall top 50 and take a look at third year WRs.
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Ranking the defenses
Quickly, here is what is on tap by the end of the weekend.
OK, the last one was my idea.
The restaurant was out of wings, by the way, for the whole week.
Anyway, as we get to defenses, I'm fully invested in the strategy of defensive streaming. What this means is that you pick the defense of the team that is playing the worst offense, and you roll with that from week-to-week. Now, this is not a viable strategy if you pay $5 per transaction, but in a free unlimited trasnaction league, it's absolutely the right call. In other words, I'd rather have the Bengals defense the weeks they play the Browns than the Jets defense against just about anyone else in the league. Plus, it gets you off the hook of having to worry about defense in your draft/auction. The top preseason defenses hardly ever end up being the best at the position by the end of the year anyway.
1. Anyone playing the Browns -- Just to illustrate my point. It could be the Bills too, or Bucs, depending on what flavor you prefer.
2. Jets -- Probably the best option week-to-week. Revis will sign.
3. Vikings -- They still sack and score pretty consistently.
4. 49ers -- The best in most formats last year.
5. Packers -- Its no secret the best NFL teams have the best fantasy defenses.
6. Ravens
7. Saints
8. Colts
9. Dolphins
10. Giants
11. Cowboys
12. Steelers
13. Eagles
14. Bengals
15. Raiders
Cheers,
TFAM
- Overall top 50(ish)
- Ranking movers and shakers
- Third year WRs...is this theory still relevant?
- Playoff schedule bonus babies
OK, the last one was my idea.
The restaurant was out of wings, by the way, for the whole week.
Anyway, as we get to defenses, I'm fully invested in the strategy of defensive streaming. What this means is that you pick the defense of the team that is playing the worst offense, and you roll with that from week-to-week. Now, this is not a viable strategy if you pay $5 per transaction, but in a free unlimited trasnaction league, it's absolutely the right call. In other words, I'd rather have the Bengals defense the weeks they play the Browns than the Jets defense against just about anyone else in the league. Plus, it gets you off the hook of having to worry about defense in your draft/auction. The top preseason defenses hardly ever end up being the best at the position by the end of the year anyway.
1. Anyone playing the Browns -- Just to illustrate my point. It could be the Bills too, or Bucs, depending on what flavor you prefer.
2. Jets -- Probably the best option week-to-week. Revis will sign.
3. Vikings -- They still sack and score pretty consistently.
4. 49ers -- The best in most formats last year.
5. Packers -- Its no secret the best NFL teams have the best fantasy defenses.
6. Ravens
7. Saints
8. Colts
9. Dolphins
10. Giants
11. Cowboys
12. Steelers
13. Eagles
14. Bengals
15. Raiders
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
The Barclays
Update: Jim Furyk overslept for the pro-am Wednesday and has been DQ'd from the tournament.
Finally the playoffs have arrived. Finally for me becuase I'm right in the mix in my auction league, and this is where I can make some serious cash. Finally for you because, let's face it, you'd rather have me write about football.
Heath Slocum won The Barclays last year, but, like what seems like so many other events in 2010, the venue has changed. It's actually being played at Ridgewood CC (Jersey), which hosted the 2008 Barclays which was won by Vijay Singh. Veej hasn't been playing poorly lately, but he hasn't been good enough to win either. Top 10 would be a nice result from him.
All of the top Tour players are in the mix this week, which includes a handful of Euros that could make an impact. Let's start with Paul Casey, who finished just two shots back in the 2008 tourney. I'd say he's grown as a player since, though he may not be in top form. The other top picks from Europe are McIlroy, Donald and Rose. Of the three, Rory is clearly playing the best golf. Poulter and Harrington are here too, but Poulter hasn't been himself really since the weekend at Augusta, and Padraig has had a 2010 to forget.
As far as the Americans go, there is a lot to like this week. We can't ignore Tiger and Phil, but can't pick them to win either. They aren't playing inspired golf and there are just too many players who are. Jim Furyk, Jeff Overton, Jason Day (ok, he's an Aussie), Bubba Watson, Steve Stricker, Matt Kuchar and Dustin Johnson have all had great seasons, and are lined up to make a major run here. None would be a surprise. Stricker tied Phil for 19th in 2008, Watson and Furyk tied for 12th. Day and Overton both were under par and are much better players now.
Three others to keep an eye on would be Ernie Els (he'll be a beast until Sunday), and Justin Leonard (tied Casey in 2008 and playing his best golf).
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Els
McIlroy
Stricker
Course History
V. Singh
Sutherland
Leonard
Casey
Laird
Who's Hot?
Watson
McIlroy
D. Johnson
Kuchar
Overton
Who's Not?
Woods
Poulter
Yang
Choi
Marino
My Picks
McIlroy
Overton
Day
Furyk
Stricker
Cheers,
TFAM
Finally the playoffs have arrived. Finally for me becuase I'm right in the mix in my auction league, and this is where I can make some serious cash. Finally for you because, let's face it, you'd rather have me write about football.
Heath Slocum won The Barclays last year, but, like what seems like so many other events in 2010, the venue has changed. It's actually being played at Ridgewood CC (Jersey), which hosted the 2008 Barclays which was won by Vijay Singh. Veej hasn't been playing poorly lately, but he hasn't been good enough to win either. Top 10 would be a nice result from him.
All of the top Tour players are in the mix this week, which includes a handful of Euros that could make an impact. Let's start with Paul Casey, who finished just two shots back in the 2008 tourney. I'd say he's grown as a player since, though he may not be in top form. The other top picks from Europe are McIlroy, Donald and Rose. Of the three, Rory is clearly playing the best golf. Poulter and Harrington are here too, but Poulter hasn't been himself really since the weekend at Augusta, and Padraig has had a 2010 to forget.
As far as the Americans go, there is a lot to like this week. We can't ignore Tiger and Phil, but can't pick them to win either. They aren't playing inspired golf and there are just too many players who are. Jim Furyk, Jeff Overton, Jason Day (ok, he's an Aussie), Bubba Watson, Steve Stricker, Matt Kuchar and Dustin Johnson have all had great seasons, and are lined up to make a major run here. None would be a surprise. Stricker tied Phil for 19th in 2008, Watson and Furyk tied for 12th. Day and Overton both were under par and are much better players now.
Three others to keep an eye on would be Ernie Els (he'll be a beast until Sunday), and Justin Leonard (tied Casey in 2008 and playing his best golf).
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Els
McIlroy
Stricker
Course History
V. Singh
Sutherland
Leonard
Casey
Laird
Who's Hot?
Watson
McIlroy
D. Johnson
Kuchar
Overton
Who's Not?
Woods
Poulter
Yang
Choi
Marino
My Picks
McIlroy
Overton
Day
Furyk
Stricker
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, August 23, 2010
Ranking the kickers
You've likely noticed that I've delayed the fantasy kicker rankings for almost a week. Really, I've been struggling to come up with a decent system to rank these soccer rejects. You may think high scoring offenses produce great fantasy kickers, or domed stadiums, but the reality is that no one has come up with any formula that can resonably predict who is going to be a good fantasy kicker in a given season. I trust expert rankings in this area as much as the Farmer's Almanac. So, I've decided to try something new this year. I have one criteria. Can I trust _________ to make a kick? If the answer is yes, they get their name on a piece of paper and get thrown into my desk drawer. Fourteen names went into the drawer, and I will now pull them out one by one, with the order determining my rankings.
The number one kicker for 2010 will be ........ Adam Vinatieri!
1. Adam Vinatieri
2. Robbie Gould
3. David Akers
4. Mason Crosby
5. Josh Brown
6. John Kasay
7. Nate Kaeding
8. Rob Bironas
9. Garrett Hartley
10. Joe Nedney
11. Steven Gostkowski
12. Ryan Longwell
13. Lawrence Tynes
14. Sebass Janikowski
The Barclays preview tomorrow. Defenses Wednesday, and overall top 50 or so by the end of the week.
Cheers,
TFAM
The number one kicker for 2010 will be ........ Adam Vinatieri!
1. Adam Vinatieri
2. Robbie Gould
3. David Akers
4. Mason Crosby
5. Josh Brown
6. John Kasay
7. Nate Kaeding
8. Rob Bironas
9. Garrett Hartley
10. Joe Nedney
11. Steven Gostkowski
12. Ryan Longwell
13. Lawrence Tynes
14. Sebass Janikowski
The Barclays preview tomorrow. Defenses Wednesday, and overall top 50 or so by the end of the week.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Pointing thumbs
I know you've all been waiting for my kicker/defense rankings, but as we move into draft season, it's time to get a bit more that matters out to the readers. So, today it's thumbs up/thumbs down. The concept is simple, players who get the thumbs up are guys who I like this year more than what I would consider the average Joe. Thumbs down then means I like the guy less than others. You can safely assume that I'm targeting guys on the up list, and avoiding those on the down list. Finally, if a player isn't listed, I'm neutral and don't have a strong feeling one way or the other.
Thumbs Up
Matt Stafford
Matt Cassel
Chris Johnson
Shonn Greene
Ryan Matthews
Beanie Wells
Marion Barber
Ahmad Bradshaw
Calvin Johnson
Michael Crabtree
Dwayne Bowe
Hakeem Nicks
Santana Moss
Pierre Garcon
Jabar Gaffney
Devin Aromashodu
Jermichael Finley
Thumbs Down
Joe Flacco
Michael Turner
DeAngelo Williams
Knowshon Moreno
LeSean McCoy
Brandon Jacobs
Felix Jones
Reggie Wayne
Steve Smith (NYG)
Mike Sims-Walker
Donald Driver
Percy Harvin
Terrell Owens
Jason Witten
Any questions about my thoughts on these guys? Check my rankings or hit me up on the chatroll.
Cheers,
TFAM
Thumbs Up
Matt Stafford
Matt Cassel
Chris Johnson
Shonn Greene
Ryan Matthews
Beanie Wells
Marion Barber
Ahmad Bradshaw
Calvin Johnson
Michael Crabtree
Dwayne Bowe
Hakeem Nicks
Santana Moss
Pierre Garcon
Jabar Gaffney
Devin Aromashodu
Jermichael Finley
Thumbs Down
Joe Flacco
Michael Turner
DeAngelo Williams
Knowshon Moreno
LeSean McCoy
Brandon Jacobs
Felix Jones
Reggie Wayne
Steve Smith (NYG)
Mike Sims-Walker
Donald Driver
Percy Harvin
Terrell Owens
Jason Witten
Any questions about my thoughts on these guys? Check my rankings or hit me up on the chatroll.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Wyndham chmpionship
If a golfer grounds his club in the sand in the woods but no one sees him, did he ground the club?
This week, the Wyndham Championship offers just a pinch more talent than my local muni. On top of that, they've only been playing on this track for two years, so we don't have a lot of course history either. As the Bad Idea Bears would say..."Yaaaaaaay!".
Ryan Moore is the defender and I suppose he's as good a pick as any as he combines talent with success here.
There's actually only one player who has finished in the top 20 in each of the last two years here and that's Scott McCarron. I suppose that makes him interesting for the first time since calling out Lefty on the groove issue. Anthony Kim is the highest ranked player in the field, but he isn't in form. Ditto Henrik Stenson, who had back to back disasters in Akron and Kohler.
Other contenders include Jerry Kelly, who may just count this as his best event on Tour with four top 10s and seven top 20s in 12 starts, and Lucas Glover, who hasn't failed to play the weekend here in six tries and fell out of the top 25 just once. Both have had success on the new course. I suppose I could be talked into 2008 champ, Carl Petterson, as well.
My pick, however, is Jason Dufner. He has just one top ten here in four starts (and two missed cuts), but he is playing well (top 10 in the PGA) and may just be one of the best golfers in an extremely weak field.
Most Talent
Kim
Stenson
Moore
Glover
Immelman
Course History
Moore
Petterson
McCarron
Glover
Kelly
Who's Hot?
Dufner
Petterson
R. Johnson
Leonard
Bettencourt
Who's Not?
Stenson
Kim
Weir
Toms
Duval
My Picks
Dufner
Kelly
Moore
R. Johnson
Glover
Cheers,
TFAM
This week, the Wyndham Championship offers just a pinch more talent than my local muni. On top of that, they've only been playing on this track for two years, so we don't have a lot of course history either. As the Bad Idea Bears would say..."Yaaaaaaay!".
Ryan Moore is the defender and I suppose he's as good a pick as any as he combines talent with success here.
There's actually only one player who has finished in the top 20 in each of the last two years here and that's Scott McCarron. I suppose that makes him interesting for the first time since calling out Lefty on the groove issue. Anthony Kim is the highest ranked player in the field, but he isn't in form. Ditto Henrik Stenson, who had back to back disasters in Akron and Kohler.
Other contenders include Jerry Kelly, who may just count this as his best event on Tour with four top 10s and seven top 20s in 12 starts, and Lucas Glover, who hasn't failed to play the weekend here in six tries and fell out of the top 25 just once. Both have had success on the new course. I suppose I could be talked into 2008 champ, Carl Petterson, as well.
My pick, however, is Jason Dufner. He has just one top ten here in four starts (and two missed cuts), but he is playing well (top 10 in the PGA) and may just be one of the best golfers in an extremely weak field.
Most Talent
Kim
Stenson
Moore
Glover
Immelman
Course History
Moore
Petterson
McCarron
Glover
Kelly
Who's Hot?
Dufner
Petterson
R. Johnson
Leonard
Bettencourt
Who's Not?
Stenson
Kim
Weir
Toms
Duval
My Picks
Dufner
Kelly
Moore
R. Johnson
Glover
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Dynasty draft recap
Sunday night, I had my first dynasty/rookie draft in my dynasty league with a bunch of local fantasy experts. It wasn't the first time we had picked players, as we had our inaugural auction last year, but this was the first time we actually had a chance to overhaul our rosters through a draft.
First, a dynasty league is an interesting concept. It basically means you just draft your team once, then you have those players as long as you want them. Therefore, when I grabbed AP in the auction last year, I knew I was paying for the chance to own him as long as I wanted. During the season you can make trades, adds, and drops, and whatever roster you end up with when the season ends you carry over to the following year. At that point, there is a draft for all unrostered players, which includes free agents and rookies.
The draft starts with the last place team from a year ago picking first, and the first place team picking last, the the draft is NOT a serpentine format. Whoever picks first in round one gets the first pick in round two also...(which is basically the Montreal Screwjob for the team who won the league, but we'll get back to that later), so that team has a chance to recover pretty quickly. When your spot comes up in the draft, you can pick or pass, and the proceedings continue until everyone has passed on their pick and is satisfied with their roster moving forward.
Now, there were certainly some free agents that were almost as appealing as the rookies, particularly in the wide receiver category. No one had Floyd, Gaffney, Aromashodu, Doucet, or Schillins, for example. So it was going to be interesting to see how those guys worked into the mix. Also, when you draft a player in this league, you drop someone at the same time, and that dropped player immediately becomes available for the next owner to draft...an interesting concept, which adds an element of luck, I believe.
The final point to make before getting to it is that this league has small rosters. You can have 14 players at any time (with an IR that can only be used if you player is out for the season), and start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 non-QB flex, 1 TE, and 1 K. We don't play with defenses. So, you start eight guys and have six bench spots. That isn't Shawn Johnson-like flexibility when you consider bye weeks. I make this point for two reasons. One, you can't hoard players on your roster for future seasons, there just isn't room for that, at least not for more than one. Think about bye weeks, injuries and such. Two, there are going to be useful players available at all times when only 168 total players have been taken.
So, the draft began. I was the Bret Hart of the league, and had the 12th pick after winning the first season's title (thanks again, Jamaal Charles, or is it Jamar?). Here is the roster I took into the proceedings. I guess it may be worthwhile to note that Kurt Warner was also a part of my team a year ago.
QB Roethlisberger
QB Stafford
RB Peterson
RB Charles
RB Barber
RB Ward
RB Choice
RB Ganther
WR A. Johnson
WR Bryant
WR Crabtree
WR Evans
TE Davis
K Kaeding
Clearly, I needed WR depth, as Bryant is nothing, and Lee Evans simply cannot be counted on. I could use a QB too, as I may need one until Ben gets back if Stafford doesn't meet my expectations. Ganther and Bryant were going to be the guys I cut, with an outside chance of letting Ward go if I saw anything interesting in the third round.
Round one (in order)
Add Ryan Matthews-drop LenDale White
Dez Bryant-No drop (he only had 13 guys)
Jahvid Best-Willie Parker
CJ Spiller-Vince Young
Montario Hardesty-Brian Westbrook
Malcom Floyd-Braylon Edwards
Demaryius Thomas-Jerious Norwood
Braylon Edwards-Steve Breaston
Julian Edelman-Bernard Berrian
Willis McGahee-Ryan Moats
Devin Aromashodu-Roy Williams
Jabar Gaffney-Quinton Ganther
Some round one impressions. The first four guys were pretty predictable, especially with the Bills running back injuries. My buddy with the fifth pick claimed before the draft that there was a pretty obvious choice there too, although I think cases could have been made for others, Hardesty was his guy. After that, I was left shaking my head. I know he drops passes, but isn't Edwards a better bet than Floyd in any format, let alone a dynasty league? As a 2011 free agent he could end up with a passing team and have more value. It wasn't a surprise to see him get gobbled up two picks later--that's where luck comes into play, I would have gambled on Edwards had I been given the chance. Breaston was cut as well, and you'll see he didn't last either. The McGahee owner must be buying into trade talk, and I was sniped on Aromashodu. I took Gaffney because of need, and I believe he's Denver's number one guy heading into the season. At least the 21 catches, 282 yards and two touchdowns from weeks 16 and 17 would seem to indicate as much. I could have opted for rookies Mike Williams, Golden Tate or Brandon LaFell, but I wanted someone who could contribute right away.
Round two
Mike Thomas-Fred Davis
Golden Tate-David Akers
Steve Breaston-Donnie Avery
Jordy Nelson-Carson Palmer
Mike Williams-Jason Snelling
Toby Gerhart-Matt Moore
Anthony Dixon-Matt Leinart
Early Doucet-Davone Bess
Carson Palmer-Antonio Bryant
Three teams passed in round two. The Nelson pick surprised me a bit, and I would have rather had 5-10 different WRs than anyone who catches balls in Jacksonville (Mike Thomas included). I made a decision before the draft that I wasn't going to waste a roster space on Gerhart, even if I have AP. Let's face it, when you have AP, if he gets hurt, you aren't winning the league. Why waste a spot on someone who only will play for me if I can't win anyway? With Leinart, Cassel, and Palmer on the board for my pick, I had a decision to make. I went with Palmer because I feel he is safer than the other two, and I have risk at QB already, but I do have Cassel and Leinart higher in my rankings for their upside. Admittedly, the QBs from 11-20 are bunched so tightly, but I may have to revisit my rankings. Another reason I went Palmer over Cassel is that Cassel has been a free agent since well into last season, I think I can get him down the road if I want, I felt the league may have valued Palmer more, so I took him there. Still, I may make a move before the season starts and just play matchups with my QBs.
Round three, four and five
David Akers-Lawrence Tynes
Chaz Schillins-Alex Smith
Fred Davis-Mario Manningham
Josh Freeman-Rashad Jennings
Dan Carpenter-Kris Brown
Dexter McCluster-Matt Hasselbeck
BenJarvus Green-Ellis-James Jones
That was it. I passed after two rounds. I now have Alex Smith in that mix and match list as well as those other guys if I should choose to play musical QBs. It's interesting that Sam Bradford didn't get picked in a dynasty league. I'd rather have him right now than Freeman.
One more note...how did I end up with a team full of running backs with a week four bye? Ugh. I'm sure our commissioner is stacking the league schedule as I type.
Cheers,
TFAM
First, a dynasty league is an interesting concept. It basically means you just draft your team once, then you have those players as long as you want them. Therefore, when I grabbed AP in the auction last year, I knew I was paying for the chance to own him as long as I wanted. During the season you can make trades, adds, and drops, and whatever roster you end up with when the season ends you carry over to the following year. At that point, there is a draft for all unrostered players, which includes free agents and rookies.
The draft starts with the last place team from a year ago picking first, and the first place team picking last, the the draft is NOT a serpentine format. Whoever picks first in round one gets the first pick in round two also...(which is basically the Montreal Screwjob for the team who won the league, but we'll get back to that later), so that team has a chance to recover pretty quickly. When your spot comes up in the draft, you can pick or pass, and the proceedings continue until everyone has passed on their pick and is satisfied with their roster moving forward.
Now, there were certainly some free agents that were almost as appealing as the rookies, particularly in the wide receiver category. No one had Floyd, Gaffney, Aromashodu, Doucet, or Schillins, for example. So it was going to be interesting to see how those guys worked into the mix. Also, when you draft a player in this league, you drop someone at the same time, and that dropped player immediately becomes available for the next owner to draft...an interesting concept, which adds an element of luck, I believe.
The final point to make before getting to it is that this league has small rosters. You can have 14 players at any time (with an IR that can only be used if you player is out for the season), and start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 non-QB flex, 1 TE, and 1 K. We don't play with defenses. So, you start eight guys and have six bench spots. That isn't Shawn Johnson-like flexibility when you consider bye weeks. I make this point for two reasons. One, you can't hoard players on your roster for future seasons, there just isn't room for that, at least not for more than one. Think about bye weeks, injuries and such. Two, there are going to be useful players available at all times when only 168 total players have been taken.
So, the draft began. I was the Bret Hart of the league, and had the 12th pick after winning the first season's title (thanks again, Jamaal Charles, or is it Jamar?). Here is the roster I took into the proceedings. I guess it may be worthwhile to note that Kurt Warner was also a part of my team a year ago.
QB Roethlisberger
QB Stafford
RB Peterson
RB Charles
RB Barber
RB Ward
RB Choice
RB Ganther
WR A. Johnson
WR Bryant
WR Crabtree
WR Evans
TE Davis
K Kaeding
Clearly, I needed WR depth, as Bryant is nothing, and Lee Evans simply cannot be counted on. I could use a QB too, as I may need one until Ben gets back if Stafford doesn't meet my expectations. Ganther and Bryant were going to be the guys I cut, with an outside chance of letting Ward go if I saw anything interesting in the third round.
Round one (in order)
Add Ryan Matthews-drop LenDale White
Dez Bryant-No drop (he only had 13 guys)
Jahvid Best-Willie Parker
CJ Spiller-Vince Young
Montario Hardesty-Brian Westbrook
Malcom Floyd-Braylon Edwards
Demaryius Thomas-Jerious Norwood
Braylon Edwards-Steve Breaston
Julian Edelman-Bernard Berrian
Willis McGahee-Ryan Moats
Devin Aromashodu-Roy Williams
Jabar Gaffney-Quinton Ganther
Some round one impressions. The first four guys were pretty predictable, especially with the Bills running back injuries. My buddy with the fifth pick claimed before the draft that there was a pretty obvious choice there too, although I think cases could have been made for others, Hardesty was his guy. After that, I was left shaking my head. I know he drops passes, but isn't Edwards a better bet than Floyd in any format, let alone a dynasty league? As a 2011 free agent he could end up with a passing team and have more value. It wasn't a surprise to see him get gobbled up two picks later--that's where luck comes into play, I would have gambled on Edwards had I been given the chance. Breaston was cut as well, and you'll see he didn't last either. The McGahee owner must be buying into trade talk, and I was sniped on Aromashodu. I took Gaffney because of need, and I believe he's Denver's number one guy heading into the season. At least the 21 catches, 282 yards and two touchdowns from weeks 16 and 17 would seem to indicate as much. I could have opted for rookies Mike Williams, Golden Tate or Brandon LaFell, but I wanted someone who could contribute right away.
Round two
Mike Thomas-Fred Davis
Golden Tate-David Akers
Steve Breaston-Donnie Avery
Jordy Nelson-Carson Palmer
Mike Williams-Jason Snelling
Toby Gerhart-Matt Moore
Anthony Dixon-Matt Leinart
Early Doucet-Davone Bess
Carson Palmer-Antonio Bryant
Three teams passed in round two. The Nelson pick surprised me a bit, and I would have rather had 5-10 different WRs than anyone who catches balls in Jacksonville (Mike Thomas included). I made a decision before the draft that I wasn't going to waste a roster space on Gerhart, even if I have AP. Let's face it, when you have AP, if he gets hurt, you aren't winning the league. Why waste a spot on someone who only will play for me if I can't win anyway? With Leinart, Cassel, and Palmer on the board for my pick, I had a decision to make. I went with Palmer because I feel he is safer than the other two, and I have risk at QB already, but I do have Cassel and Leinart higher in my rankings for their upside. Admittedly, the QBs from 11-20 are bunched so tightly, but I may have to revisit my rankings. Another reason I went Palmer over Cassel is that Cassel has been a free agent since well into last season, I think I can get him down the road if I want, I felt the league may have valued Palmer more, so I took him there. Still, I may make a move before the season starts and just play matchups with my QBs.
Round three, four and five
David Akers-Lawrence Tynes
Chaz Schillins-Alex Smith
Fred Davis-Mario Manningham
Josh Freeman-Rashad Jennings
Dan Carpenter-Kris Brown
Dexter McCluster-Matt Hasselbeck
BenJarvus Green-Ellis-James Jones
That was it. I passed after two rounds. I now have Alex Smith in that mix and match list as well as those other guys if I should choose to play musical QBs. It's interesting that Sam Bradford didn't get picked in a dynasty league. I'd rather have him right now than Freeman.
One more note...how did I end up with a team full of running backs with a week four bye? Ugh. I'm sure our commissioner is stacking the league schedule as I type.
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, August 16, 2010
Ranking the tight ends
Back with more rankings this morning. Also, I had my dynasty league draft last night. Some very interesting developments. I'll tease you with this, then I'll write it up tomorrow. The first four picks were Matthews, Bryant, Best, and Spiller. Who do you think went fifth?
Anyway, with the tight ends, these rankings reflect how I feel about the guys at the position. As far as where they'd go in a league that combines WR/TE, I'd say the top four are somewhere in the 20-40 range with the WRs, depending on how much your league values yardage versus scores. The more your league rewards yardage, the less valuable tight ends become.
To me, the top four guys are the targets here, otherwise, wait, and gamble later.
1. Dallas Clark -- Had a bunch of massive games in 2009. A difference maker. Watch the injury.
2. Antonio Gates -- Still a huge advantage, but will defenses hone in without V-Jax?
3. Vernon Davis -- Tied the record for tight ends with 13 scores in 2009. Top three are tightly bunched.
4. Jermichael Finley -- The upside is huge, and if you saw the playoff game, you are thinking he'll have a huge year too.
5. Tony Gonzalez -- Still reliable, I'm just not going to pay for the name.
6. Brent Celek -- Will Kolb help or hurt? Celek was good last year, and Kolb would be wise to keep him highly involved.
7. Jason Witten -- Total bust last year. More skill player talent in Dallas means less for Witten.
8. Greg Olsen -- Lots of haters with Martz, but I still like the talent.
9. Visanthe Shiancoe -- All depends on four.
10. John Carlson -- Carlson was underutilized in 2009, but scored in each of his last four games.
11. Dustin Keller -- Another playoff breakout, Keller should improve if Sanchez does.
12. Owen Daniels -- Coming off the torn ACL.
13. Chris Cooley -- Is at least interesting with the Shanahan/McNabb combo. Look out for Fred Davis though.
14. Zach Miller -- Raiders pass game will be better.
15. Jermaine Gresham -- The best rookie, some upside here.
Cheers,
TFAM
Anyway, with the tight ends, these rankings reflect how I feel about the guys at the position. As far as where they'd go in a league that combines WR/TE, I'd say the top four are somewhere in the 20-40 range with the WRs, depending on how much your league values yardage versus scores. The more your league rewards yardage, the less valuable tight ends become.
To me, the top four guys are the targets here, otherwise, wait, and gamble later.
1. Dallas Clark -- Had a bunch of massive games in 2009. A difference maker. Watch the injury.
2. Antonio Gates -- Still a huge advantage, but will defenses hone in without V-Jax?
3. Vernon Davis -- Tied the record for tight ends with 13 scores in 2009. Top three are tightly bunched.
4. Jermichael Finley -- The upside is huge, and if you saw the playoff game, you are thinking he'll have a huge year too.
5. Tony Gonzalez -- Still reliable, I'm just not going to pay for the name.
6. Brent Celek -- Will Kolb help or hurt? Celek was good last year, and Kolb would be wise to keep him highly involved.
7. Jason Witten -- Total bust last year. More skill player talent in Dallas means less for Witten.
8. Greg Olsen -- Lots of haters with Martz, but I still like the talent.
9. Visanthe Shiancoe -- All depends on four.
10. John Carlson -- Carlson was underutilized in 2009, but scored in each of his last four games.
11. Dustin Keller -- Another playoff breakout, Keller should improve if Sanchez does.
12. Owen Daniels -- Coming off the torn ACL.
13. Chris Cooley -- Is at least interesting with the Shanahan/McNabb combo. Look out for Fred Davis though.
14. Zach Miller -- Raiders pass game will be better.
15. Jermaine Gresham -- The best rookie, some upside here.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Ranking the wide receivers
Wide receivers today, tight ends tomorrow, kickers and defenses next week. Also, I have a rookie/free agent draft coming up tomorrow in my highly competitive dynasty league. I'll let you know how that goes down as well.
Now, the divas. It's one sure thing, then a bunch of talented guys with minor question marks, then the sleepers and the rest.
1. Andre Johnson -- The sure thing. Yards, TD, catches.
2. Calvin Johnson -- I'm big on the Lions. I think he finally gives us what we've been waiting for.
3. Miles Austin -- Fewest questions from here on out. Was the best in the game for the majority of 2009.
4. Larry Fitzgerald -- Warner's loss hurts more than Boldin's. Fitz will get his, but is no longer a game-to-game sure thing.
5. Randy Moss -- Football is a young man's game. Plus, if the Pats struggle, Moss will give up.
6. Reggie Wayne -- The third tier stars here. I'm not a fan of Wayne this year for three reasons. His age, his dropoff in production, and his improving supporting cast.
7. Greg Jennings -- Pretty much a given to contribute, it's just that Driver stole a lot of fantasy love in 2009. Could change this year.
8. DeSean Jackson -- Risk/reward, should catch less balls than Brandon Marshall, but is the premiere home run hitter in the league. Can Kolb serve it up, BP style?
9. Brandon Marshall -- Should have something to prove, PPR machine, but the Dolphins will stay with running game.
10. Dwayne Bowe -- Talent is there, he worked out hard in the off-season (and needed to), and Charlie Weis has arrived. I like Bowe.
11. Steve Smith (CAR) -- Still has number one WR talent, and I like him more with Moore.
12. Roddy White -- Falcons continue to be a run first team, and Roddy was one the most inconsistent players of 2009. I hate inconsistency.
13. Marques Colston -- Yawn. Lots of options in NO.
14. Sidney Rice -- Probably is in the 8-10 range with Favre -- and a fully healed hip.
15. Hakeem Nicks -- I think he is the clear number one in NY by midseason.
16. Anquan Boldin -- Ravens number one, and they should try to make him earn his money. Like that he is now a number one, hate his new smashmouth team.
17. Michael Crabtree -- There is upside here. He was an important factor in 2009, and missed almost all significant practice reps.
18. Vincent Jackson -- Tough to rank. Should be number 13 if he's only missing three games.
19. Chad Ochocinco -- What's the upside here, that he will demand the ball? That's about it.
20. Wes Welker -- Sounds like he may play week one.
21. Mike Sims-Walker -- He'll likely be a bargain. Not a sexy pick, and I don't love him, but he's a number one WR for the Jags.
22. Santana Moss -- Does McNabb see any DeSean in Santana?
23. Mike Wallace -- Am I the only one who thinks he'll be better than Ward?
24. Steve Smith (NYG) -- I think he outplayed his talent in 2009.
25. Pierre Garcon -- He certainly has momentum and upside coming off a strong playoff performance.
26. Hines Ward -- The old reliable, should be good for 1000 and 6-8 scores. Just no upside.
27. Donald Driver -- See Hines Ward.
28. Braylon Edwards -- My old friend, the hands of stone.
29. Lee Evans -- He is the number one in Buffalo, and still has great talent, I think. I'd know if they ever threw him the ball.
30. Chaz Schillins -- Let's round out the number ones, Schillins is a big target, and Campbell absolutely improves that offense.
31. Devin Aromashodu -- He's the guy I want on th Bears over Knox, mainly because I saw his big time talent in the last games of 2009.
32. TJ Houshmandzadeh -- He needs to be a number two. Good sidekick, not a main target. Still, he's a loudmouth, which is a good thing for fantasy purposes. Seattle was just so awful last year.
33. Kenny Britt -- Seems like a good talent, it's just that it's CJ's offense, and I'm not a Vince guy.
34. Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson -- I wouldn't draft either here, because we don't know who will emerge as the number one, but I'm putting them here to say that I like whoever emerges.
35. Malcom Floyd -- A serious play for weeks 1-3. Longer if Jackson sits out.
36. Jabar Gaffney -- Not really built like a one, but someone has to catch passes in Denver.
37. Johnny Knox -- I'm on board with the Cutler-Martz marriage.
38. Steve Breaston -- You have to love playing the Rams and Seahawks twice a year if you're a passing offense. Just not sure Breaston is as good as Boldin. Doucet is also a factor.
39. Dez Bryant -- I love his big play ability. Injury just keeps his price down.
40. Percy Harvin -- Bump him up a couple spots with Favre. Not ready to be a star though in fantasy.
41. Robert Meachem -- Again, lots of options in New Orleans. He emerged last year, then faded.
42. Mike Williams -- The Tampa rookie has talent, and would have been drafted higher than the fourth round in April if not for character concerns.
43. Jeremy Maclin -- ESPN guy KC Joyner says that Maclin has the toughest schedule of any WR this year. I guess I believe him.
44. Santonio Holmes -- Suspension looming.
45. Mohamed Massaquoi -- Probably should be higher, but it's Delhomme in Cleveland, which is a 10 spot penalty in the rankings, minimum.
46. Devin Hester -- I've never been a fan of him as a WR.
47. Bernard Berrian
48. Terrell Owens
49. Eddie Royal
50. Roy Williams
51. Nate Burleson
52. Josh Morgan
53. Early Doucet
54. James Jones
55. Jacoby Jones
56. Derrick Mason
57. Devery Henderson
58. Brandon LaFell
59. Mario Manningham
60. Austin Collie
61. Devin Thomas
62. Brandon Tate
Cheers,
TFAM
Now, the divas. It's one sure thing, then a bunch of talented guys with minor question marks, then the sleepers and the rest.
1. Andre Johnson -- The sure thing. Yards, TD, catches.
2. Calvin Johnson -- I'm big on the Lions. I think he finally gives us what we've been waiting for.
3. Miles Austin -- Fewest questions from here on out. Was the best in the game for the majority of 2009.
4. Larry Fitzgerald -- Warner's loss hurts more than Boldin's. Fitz will get his, but is no longer a game-to-game sure thing.
5. Randy Moss -- Football is a young man's game. Plus, if the Pats struggle, Moss will give up.
6. Reggie Wayne -- The third tier stars here. I'm not a fan of Wayne this year for three reasons. His age, his dropoff in production, and his improving supporting cast.
7. Greg Jennings -- Pretty much a given to contribute, it's just that Driver stole a lot of fantasy love in 2009. Could change this year.
8. DeSean Jackson -- Risk/reward, should catch less balls than Brandon Marshall, but is the premiere home run hitter in the league. Can Kolb serve it up, BP style?
9. Brandon Marshall -- Should have something to prove, PPR machine, but the Dolphins will stay with running game.
10. Dwayne Bowe -- Talent is there, he worked out hard in the off-season (and needed to), and Charlie Weis has arrived. I like Bowe.
11. Steve Smith (CAR) -- Still has number one WR talent, and I like him more with Moore.
12. Roddy White -- Falcons continue to be a run first team, and Roddy was one the most inconsistent players of 2009. I hate inconsistency.
13. Marques Colston -- Yawn. Lots of options in NO.
14. Sidney Rice -- Probably is in the 8-10 range with Favre -- and a fully healed hip.
15. Hakeem Nicks -- I think he is the clear number one in NY by midseason.
16. Anquan Boldin -- Ravens number one, and they should try to make him earn his money. Like that he is now a number one, hate his new smashmouth team.
17. Michael Crabtree -- There is upside here. He was an important factor in 2009, and missed almost all significant practice reps.
18. Vincent Jackson -- Tough to rank. Should be number 13 if he's only missing three games.
19. Chad Ochocinco -- What's the upside here, that he will demand the ball? That's about it.
20. Wes Welker -- Sounds like he may play week one.
21. Mike Sims-Walker -- He'll likely be a bargain. Not a sexy pick, and I don't love him, but he's a number one WR for the Jags.
22. Santana Moss -- Does McNabb see any DeSean in Santana?
23. Mike Wallace -- Am I the only one who thinks he'll be better than Ward?
24. Steve Smith (NYG) -- I think he outplayed his talent in 2009.
25. Pierre Garcon -- He certainly has momentum and upside coming off a strong playoff performance.
26. Hines Ward -- The old reliable, should be good for 1000 and 6-8 scores. Just no upside.
27. Donald Driver -- See Hines Ward.
28. Braylon Edwards -- My old friend, the hands of stone.
29. Lee Evans -- He is the number one in Buffalo, and still has great talent, I think. I'd know if they ever threw him the ball.
30. Chaz Schillins -- Let's round out the number ones, Schillins is a big target, and Campbell absolutely improves that offense.
31. Devin Aromashodu -- He's the guy I want on th Bears over Knox, mainly because I saw his big time talent in the last games of 2009.
32. TJ Houshmandzadeh -- He needs to be a number two. Good sidekick, not a main target. Still, he's a loudmouth, which is a good thing for fantasy purposes. Seattle was just so awful last year.
33. Kenny Britt -- Seems like a good talent, it's just that it's CJ's offense, and I'm not a Vince guy.
34. Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson -- I wouldn't draft either here, because we don't know who will emerge as the number one, but I'm putting them here to say that I like whoever emerges.
35. Malcom Floyd -- A serious play for weeks 1-3. Longer if Jackson sits out.
36. Jabar Gaffney -- Not really built like a one, but someone has to catch passes in Denver.
37. Johnny Knox -- I'm on board with the Cutler-Martz marriage.
38. Steve Breaston -- You have to love playing the Rams and Seahawks twice a year if you're a passing offense. Just not sure Breaston is as good as Boldin. Doucet is also a factor.
39. Dez Bryant -- I love his big play ability. Injury just keeps his price down.
40. Percy Harvin -- Bump him up a couple spots with Favre. Not ready to be a star though in fantasy.
41. Robert Meachem -- Again, lots of options in New Orleans. He emerged last year, then faded.
42. Mike Williams -- The Tampa rookie has talent, and would have been drafted higher than the fourth round in April if not for character concerns.
43. Jeremy Maclin -- ESPN guy KC Joyner says that Maclin has the toughest schedule of any WR this year. I guess I believe him.
44. Santonio Holmes -- Suspension looming.
45. Mohamed Massaquoi -- Probably should be higher, but it's Delhomme in Cleveland, which is a 10 spot penalty in the rankings, minimum.
46. Devin Hester -- I've never been a fan of him as a WR.
47. Bernard Berrian
48. Terrell Owens
49. Eddie Royal
50. Roy Williams
51. Nate Burleson
52. Josh Morgan
53. Early Doucet
54. James Jones
55. Jacoby Jones
56. Derrick Mason
57. Devery Henderson
58. Brandon LaFell
59. Mario Manningham
60. Austin Collie
61. Devin Thomas
62. Brandon Tate
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
PGA Championship
After a nice start to the fantasy golf season, my prognostications have taken a bit of a turn for the worse as of late, not quite the turn that my fantasy squad took Sunday when Els, O'Hair and Kuchar played with their arms around their necks and cost me a victory, but but it has been a struggle nonetheless. Let's get back on track this week for the PGA, which is being held at a fantastic venue, Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wisconsin.
Last time the PGA went to Sconnie, Vijay Singh (who may or may not have still been wearing his glasses, won in a playoff over Chris Dimarco and Justin Leonard and clained his second PGA and third (and last) major. Since, all three have fallen on hard times, with Dimarco becoming a shell of his former bulldog self, and Veej and Leonard having seen their best years pass. Leonard may be a bit of a sleeper this week, as his game seemed to awaken a bit at Firestone, but I;m not sure he can win the event.
Ernie Els finished one shot out of that playoff in 2004 and he's played his best golf in years this past six months. He should be a factor here, but his routine of Sunday fades is a bit concerning. Mickelson is always a threat, but with the demands that this course puts on the driver, I'm not sure he can put well enough to overcome that weakness.
My pick? Steve Stricker. He's from Wisconsin, which may put pressure on him (and may even make him the sexpert pick of the week...I could be kicking myself Friday afternoon), but he plays his best golf close to home at the John Deere, so that shouldn't be an issue. I know the Deere is hardly the PGA, but Stricker is straight off the tee and he can putt. That's a great formula this week.
Other contenders are going to include Jim Furyk and Rory McIlroy, both of whom are playing well enogh to win and have the game to succeed here. Obviously, all the world is here as well this week, so, again, there are plenty of talented players who have a chance to win. Which one do you fancy?
You want a darkhorse? Matt Kuchar. That drive it straight, putt it well formula works for him as well.
I think we've covered everything, right? What, Eldrick? Shhhh. I picked him 15th in my PGA draft, let's not talk about him. Everyone should write him off.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
McIlroy
Els
Stricker
Course History
V. Singh
Leonard
Els
Choi
Mickelson
Who's Hot?
Mahan
Harrington
McIlroy
Stricker
Overton
Who's Not?
Woods
Garcia
Choi
Kim
Ogilvy
My Picks
Stricker
Furyk
McIlroy
Casey
Kuchar
Els
Watney
Goosen
O'Hair
Leonard
Cheers,
TFAM
Last time the PGA went to Sconnie, Vijay Singh (who may or may not have still been wearing his glasses, won in a playoff over Chris Dimarco and Justin Leonard and clained his second PGA and third (and last) major. Since, all three have fallen on hard times, with Dimarco becoming a shell of his former bulldog self, and Veej and Leonard having seen their best years pass. Leonard may be a bit of a sleeper this week, as his game seemed to awaken a bit at Firestone, but I;m not sure he can win the event.
Ernie Els finished one shot out of that playoff in 2004 and he's played his best golf in years this past six months. He should be a factor here, but his routine of Sunday fades is a bit concerning. Mickelson is always a threat, but with the demands that this course puts on the driver, I'm not sure he can put well enough to overcome that weakness.
My pick? Steve Stricker. He's from Wisconsin, which may put pressure on him (and may even make him the sexpert pick of the week...I could be kicking myself Friday afternoon), but he plays his best golf close to home at the John Deere, so that shouldn't be an issue. I know the Deere is hardly the PGA, but Stricker is straight off the tee and he can putt. That's a great formula this week.
Other contenders are going to include Jim Furyk and Rory McIlroy, both of whom are playing well enogh to win and have the game to succeed here. Obviously, all the world is here as well this week, so, again, there are plenty of talented players who have a chance to win. Which one do you fancy?
You want a darkhorse? Matt Kuchar. That drive it straight, putt it well formula works for him as well.
I think we've covered everything, right? What, Eldrick? Shhhh. I picked him 15th in my PGA draft, let's not talk about him. Everyone should write him off.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
McIlroy
Els
Stricker
Course History
V. Singh
Leonard
Els
Choi
Mickelson
Who's Hot?
Mahan
Harrington
McIlroy
Stricker
Overton
Who's Not?
Woods
Garcia
Choi
Kim
Ogilvy
My Picks
Stricker
Furyk
McIlroy
Casey
Kuchar
Els
Watney
Goosen
O'Hair
Leonard
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Ranking the running backs
With the NFL as a whole turning more and more to a committee approach in the backfield, finding the guys who can help you win fantasy titles is getting more difficult by the year. I have two quick theories when it comes to running backs. One, you want the guy who scores the touchdowns in a committee. I've been burned by too many yardage guys in the past who can't get in the end zone. Also, it may be obvious, but I see running backs as situational. They can be goal line guys, first and second down guys, and third down guys. If you get one that's all three (like Chris Johnson) you have a beast. You need at least two though to be on any of my fantasy teams.
1. Chris Johnson -- As long as he is the goal line guy, he's number one.
2. Adrian Peterson -- Too much talent to drop to three, but there are scenarios (if Gerhart vultures some scores) where he could have a down year.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew -- He also gets all three situations as the Jags every down guy.
4. Ray Rice -- Explosive enough to be number two if it wasn't for McGahee, who sniped a bunch of TDs late last year.
5. Frank Gore -- Gore also is on the field in all three situations, but the talent level has dropped from the top four significantly.
6. Steven Jackson -- Pretty much ditto from what I said about Gore. Apples to apples with these two.
7. Shonn Greene -- I've written a lot about Greene. The sky is the limit, and it's powder blue with LTs presence.
8. Ryan Matthews -- Shaping up to get a lot of touches and scores on a good offense.
9. Beanie Wells -- I see a breakout year coming.
10. DeAngelo Williams -- Not sure what to expect, but I know this starts a run of guys I don't want.
11. Rashard Mendenhall -- He's shown flashes, but little consistency. I'm wondering how many touches he'll get.
12. Michael Turner -- I see him as being on the decline.
13. Jamaal Charles -- He has amazing talent, as the last eight games of 2009 show. Just need to silence Thomas Jones.
14. Cedric Benson -- I think he's clearly better than Ryan Grant, and the Bengals run more.
15. Pierre Thomas -- Thomas has upside, depends on how they use him. I experienced the down side on two of my 2009 squads.
16. Ryan Grant -- I just don't think he's very talented, and the Pack will throw in goal line sitautions.
17. Knowshon Moreno -- He is getting a repuation of being injury prone. I also think Denver will be horrible.
18. Jonathon Stewart -- He may be better than Williams, and if he gets 80% of goal line touches he's the one you want.
19. LeSean McCoy -- A poor man's Westbrook. I haven't seen Andy Reid have any faith in McCoy yet, not that he earned any.
20. Joseph Addai -- I guess he is a safe play, though not sexy. I'm not a Donald Brown guy.
21. Marion Barber -- I just have a hunch he has a better year than Felix. Barber is the goal line guy, and he plays hurt, Felix doesn't.
22. Justin Forsett -- There is a chance that he is a three situation guy.
23. Jahvid Best -- I'm back to liking these guys again. That started at number 21.
24. Steve Slaton -- Just kidding.
25. Ricky Williams -- I think he's better than Ronnie.
26. Ronnie Brown -- You almost have to take them both.
27. Ahmad Bradshaw -- It's a lock that he has more fantasy points than Jacobs.
28. Matt Forte -- I'm thinking he and Chester are about a 50/50 split with Forte the favorite for the stripe.
29. Darren McFadden -- Could the QB change spark his career? Michael Bush may have something to say.
30. Fred Jackson -- I just don't see Spiller scoring much unless he starts braking long ones...
31. CJ Spiller -- ...which he is capable of doing.
32. Michael Bush -- Its all about the carries.
33. Felix Jones
34. Clinton Portis -- Yeah, no.
35. Brandon Jacobs
36. Reggie Bush -- Not reliable at all.
37. Cadillac Willams -- Ward is still a factor.
38. Donald Brown
39. Thomas Jones
40. Chester Taylor
41. Derrick Ward -- Could have upside if/when Cadillac gets hurt.
42. Jerome Harrison -- See Hardesty.
43. Montario Hardesty -- I'm not going to pretend I know how this is going to play out.
44. Laurence Maroney -- We've played this game before.
45. Mike Bell -- I could see him having a bigger role than we think.
46. Tashard Choice -- He's really good, and the two guys in front of him aren't exactly your healthiest folks.
47. LaDainian Tomlinson -- I guess he could score 10, unfortunately.
48. Fred Taylor -- New England is a crapshoot.
49. Lex Hilliard -- Just a heads-up for dynasty leaguers that Ronnie and Ricky are both free agents.
50. Ben Tate, Arian Foster, Steve Slaton, Domanick Davis, Ryan Moats -- You know how I feel.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. Chris Johnson -- As long as he is the goal line guy, he's number one.
2. Adrian Peterson -- Too much talent to drop to three, but there are scenarios (if Gerhart vultures some scores) where he could have a down year.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew -- He also gets all three situations as the Jags every down guy.
4. Ray Rice -- Explosive enough to be number two if it wasn't for McGahee, who sniped a bunch of TDs late last year.
5. Frank Gore -- Gore also is on the field in all three situations, but the talent level has dropped from the top four significantly.
6. Steven Jackson -- Pretty much ditto from what I said about Gore. Apples to apples with these two.
7. Shonn Greene -- I've written a lot about Greene. The sky is the limit, and it's powder blue with LTs presence.
8. Ryan Matthews -- Shaping up to get a lot of touches and scores on a good offense.
9. Beanie Wells -- I see a breakout year coming.
10. DeAngelo Williams -- Not sure what to expect, but I know this starts a run of guys I don't want.
11. Rashard Mendenhall -- He's shown flashes, but little consistency. I'm wondering how many touches he'll get.
12. Michael Turner -- I see him as being on the decline.
13. Jamaal Charles -- He has amazing talent, as the last eight games of 2009 show. Just need to silence Thomas Jones.
14. Cedric Benson -- I think he's clearly better than Ryan Grant, and the Bengals run more.
15. Pierre Thomas -- Thomas has upside, depends on how they use him. I experienced the down side on two of my 2009 squads.
16. Ryan Grant -- I just don't think he's very talented, and the Pack will throw in goal line sitautions.
17. Knowshon Moreno -- He is getting a repuation of being injury prone. I also think Denver will be horrible.
18. Jonathon Stewart -- He may be better than Williams, and if he gets 80% of goal line touches he's the one you want.
19. LeSean McCoy -- A poor man's Westbrook. I haven't seen Andy Reid have any faith in McCoy yet, not that he earned any.
20. Joseph Addai -- I guess he is a safe play, though not sexy. I'm not a Donald Brown guy.
21. Marion Barber -- I just have a hunch he has a better year than Felix. Barber is the goal line guy, and he plays hurt, Felix doesn't.
22. Justin Forsett -- There is a chance that he is a three situation guy.
23. Jahvid Best -- I'm back to liking these guys again. That started at number 21.
24. Steve Slaton -- Just kidding.
25. Ricky Williams -- I think he's better than Ronnie.
26. Ronnie Brown -- You almost have to take them both.
27. Ahmad Bradshaw -- It's a lock that he has more fantasy points than Jacobs.
28. Matt Forte -- I'm thinking he and Chester are about a 50/50 split with Forte the favorite for the stripe.
29. Darren McFadden -- Could the QB change spark his career? Michael Bush may have something to say.
30. Fred Jackson -- I just don't see Spiller scoring much unless he starts braking long ones...
31. CJ Spiller -- ...which he is capable of doing.
32. Michael Bush -- Its all about the carries.
33. Felix Jones
34. Clinton Portis -- Yeah, no.
35. Brandon Jacobs
36. Reggie Bush -- Not reliable at all.
37. Cadillac Willams -- Ward is still a factor.
38. Donald Brown
39. Thomas Jones
40. Chester Taylor
41. Derrick Ward -- Could have upside if/when Cadillac gets hurt.
42. Jerome Harrison -- See Hardesty.
43. Montario Hardesty -- I'm not going to pretend I know how this is going to play out.
44. Laurence Maroney -- We've played this game before.
45. Mike Bell -- I could see him having a bigger role than we think.
46. Tashard Choice -- He's really good, and the two guys in front of him aren't exactly your healthiest folks.
47. LaDainian Tomlinson -- I guess he could score 10, unfortunately.
48. Fred Taylor -- New England is a crapshoot.
49. Lex Hilliard -- Just a heads-up for dynasty leaguers that Ronnie and Ricky are both free agents.
50. Ben Tate, Arian Foster, Steve Slaton, Domanick Davis, Ryan Moats -- You know how I feel.
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Ranking the quarterbacks
A couple days ago, I wrote about the advantages of playing in a league where you start two quarterbacks. In such a league, the top four on this list are all top 12-15 picks, and the top six should be gone by the end of the second round. Of course, most of us play auction leagues anyway, so rounds mean nothing!
1. Drew Brees -- No risk here. High powered pass happy offense. He's been consistent, and that's what you need in a first rounder.
2. Aaron Rodgers -- A fantasy star waxs born last year and the weapons in the passing game are seemingly getting better.
3. Peyton Manning -- He says he wants the team to run more. I say he still is a lock for 30 TDs. Almost no risk here.
4. Tom Brady -- I once bet a friend that Brady would put up more fantasy points than Manning in 2009. I lost, hence, Manning > Brady.
5. Tony Romo -- Barely gets the five spot. Dallas should have a high powered offense. I'd love to see the TDs back over 30 (he tossed 36 in '07) to go along with his big yardage totals.
6. Matt Schaub -- Speaking of yardage totals, guess who led the NFL in 2009?
7. Phil Rivers -- I personally think there is a dropoff between six and seven, then seven and the next tier. The stats say I'm wrong, as Rivers was very good in '09. I just like Schaub better.
8. Jay Cutler -- This is probably Favre's spot if he plays, so we'll call him 8a. Cutler has a huge opportunity to perform this year, I say he seizes it, but would bet my mortgage.
8a. Brett Favre -- Is this where I mention T-Jack would not be 8a?
9. Matt Stafford -- This is a huge leap of faith. I like the Lions in 2010. At least for fantasy purposes. It also says that after number seven (or 8a), the quarterbacks all become a matter of personal preference.
10. Ben Roethlisberger -- Tough guy to rank. Would be nine without the suspension.
11. Eli Manning -- Good guy to draft, good guy to trade. Always starts hot, then sell high.
12. Matt Cassel -- I think the Chiefs are the Detroit of the midwest. How's THAT for a compliment Kansas City?
13. Kevin Kolb -- We know the Iggles will throw, and Kolb threw for 300 in each of his two games in 2009.
14. Matt Ryan -- He is a very nice player, but does the offense hold him back a bit?
15. Donovan McNabb -- I have no idea what to expect in Washington.
16. Joe Flacco -- Why should I be so excited about a QB who threw for under 200 in half of his games again?
17. Alex Smith -- He has weapons.
18. Matt Leinart -- We're going with upside now. I suppose he could be pretty good, and he also has a lot of firepower on offense even without Boldin.
19. Carson Palmer -- Hasn't been relevant for a few years. Not impressed with Owens or 85. The NFL is a young man's game.
20. Chad Henne -- I like Henne, I just don't see a lot of passing touchdowns. Marshall makes things happen, but doesn't play the vertical game.
21. Vince Young -- Not a fan, only here because of the rushing points.
22. Jason Campbell -- The Raiders are actually intriguing this year. This could be low on Campbell if the WRs step up.
23. Mark Sanchez -- The Jets are a run first team, and Edwards will drop at least three TDs, which is a factor.
24. David Garrard -- Yuck.
25. Sam Bradford -- Its a dice roll, but he should at least get 16 starts, and the Rams play from behind often.
26. Matt Moore
27. Kyle Orton
28. Matt Hasselbeck
29. Josh Freeman
30. Trent Edwards - Lee Evans told me to rank Edwards 30. Said he was better than Delhomme.
31. Jake Delhomme -- Can't wait to see Delhomme play 500 with the conditions in Cleveland.
Cheers,
TFAM
1. Drew Brees -- No risk here. High powered pass happy offense. He's been consistent, and that's what you need in a first rounder.
2. Aaron Rodgers -- A fantasy star waxs born last year and the weapons in the passing game are seemingly getting better.
3. Peyton Manning -- He says he wants the team to run more. I say he still is a lock for 30 TDs. Almost no risk here.
4. Tom Brady -- I once bet a friend that Brady would put up more fantasy points than Manning in 2009. I lost, hence, Manning > Brady.
5. Tony Romo -- Barely gets the five spot. Dallas should have a high powered offense. I'd love to see the TDs back over 30 (he tossed 36 in '07) to go along with his big yardage totals.
6. Matt Schaub -- Speaking of yardage totals, guess who led the NFL in 2009?
7. Phil Rivers -- I personally think there is a dropoff between six and seven, then seven and the next tier. The stats say I'm wrong, as Rivers was very good in '09. I just like Schaub better.
8. Jay Cutler -- This is probably Favre's spot if he plays, so we'll call him 8a. Cutler has a huge opportunity to perform this year, I say he seizes it, but would bet my mortgage.
8a. Brett Favre -- Is this where I mention T-Jack would not be 8a?
9. Matt Stafford -- This is a huge leap of faith. I like the Lions in 2010. At least for fantasy purposes. It also says that after number seven (or 8a), the quarterbacks all become a matter of personal preference.
10. Ben Roethlisberger -- Tough guy to rank. Would be nine without the suspension.
11. Eli Manning -- Good guy to draft, good guy to trade. Always starts hot, then sell high.
12. Matt Cassel -- I think the Chiefs are the Detroit of the midwest. How's THAT for a compliment Kansas City?
13. Kevin Kolb -- We know the Iggles will throw, and Kolb threw for 300 in each of his two games in 2009.
14. Matt Ryan -- He is a very nice player, but does the offense hold him back a bit?
15. Donovan McNabb -- I have no idea what to expect in Washington.
16. Joe Flacco -- Why should I be so excited about a QB who threw for under 200 in half of his games again?
17. Alex Smith -- He has weapons.
18. Matt Leinart -- We're going with upside now. I suppose he could be pretty good, and he also has a lot of firepower on offense even without Boldin.
19. Carson Palmer -- Hasn't been relevant for a few years. Not impressed with Owens or 85. The NFL is a young man's game.
20. Chad Henne -- I like Henne, I just don't see a lot of passing touchdowns. Marshall makes things happen, but doesn't play the vertical game.
21. Vince Young -- Not a fan, only here because of the rushing points.
22. Jason Campbell -- The Raiders are actually intriguing this year. This could be low on Campbell if the WRs step up.
23. Mark Sanchez -- The Jets are a run first team, and Edwards will drop at least three TDs, which is a factor.
24. David Garrard -- Yuck.
25. Sam Bradford -- Its a dice roll, but he should at least get 16 starts, and the Rams play from behind often.
26. Matt Moore
27. Kyle Orton
28. Matt Hasselbeck
29. Josh Freeman
30. Trent Edwards - Lee Evans told me to rank Edwards 30. Said he was better than Delhomme.
31. Jake Delhomme -- Can't wait to see Delhomme play 500 with the conditions in Cleveland.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Ten critical questions
You know how I don't really like arbitrary numbers, so I'm just going to toss out the questions that pop into my mind as I go, if I get to ten, great, if not, the title stays the same. Ladies and gentlemen, fantasy football season has begun. Tomorrow, the rankings begin. Should I start with kickers?
1. Will LaDainian Tomlinson be the Jets goal line back?
I don't care about LT's touches between the 20s, but he is a major fantasy factor looming as a potential TD vulture. If Greene gets goal line touches, he's top 10 overall. If not? He's a middle tier RB2.
2. How will the Chiefs running back situation shake out?
Jamaal Charles only amassed 1112 total yards and eight scores in the Chiefs final eight games last season, so it figures the braintrust would bring in an aging veteran hungry for touches in Thomas Jones? Wait, what? Yeah, it's the Chiefs. But, they have an easy schedule, and Jamaal could still be gold if the team uses him on 75% of the offensive snaps. Jones is probably the goal line guy.
3. Does Brett Favre matter?
Absolutely. To me, there's no question that Rice, Harvin and Shiancoe have their fantasy values tied directly to the right arm of the gunslinger. Peterson's value is probably unchanged either way. Maybe more carries without Favre, but more effective carries with him.
4. Now that Mike Bell is gone, will Pierre Thomas emerge?
I hope so, but I'm skeptical. Once something works for a coach, they are likely to go back to the well. So, while Lynell Hamilton isn't likely to see much action between the 20s, he is a good bet to score 5-10 TDs as we all watch Pierre trot to the sideline inside the five. Reggie Bush has little impact on Thomas' value.
5. Is Mike Martz a genius?
He might be, but he hasn't been much of an offensive coordinator lately, at least if you are judging by wins and losses. Maybe he's good at Boggle. Anyway, Martz goes to Chicago and fantasy owners are excited about the prospects of his pass happy attack. Wouldn't it be funny if Jay Cutler threw for 35 TD and 28 INT? It remains to be seen how it works, but it's hard not to like Cutler more than last year, and Johnny Knox and Aromoshodu are intriguing fanatsy options. I bet they both outscore Hester, who never lives up to the unwarranted hype.
6. Can Kevin Kolb play?
He has the value of Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and to a lesser extent LeSean McCoy hanging in the balance. I'm a Kolb guy (and not a McCoy fan), so, I like his fantasy value in a pass happy offense. I'm just not sure if he can get it down the field like McNabb did, which may spell trouble for Jackson.
7. Is Detroit a lurking hotbed of fantasy goodness?
I think so. Since last year they've added an explosive back in Jahvid Best, a good number two WR in Burleson, and seen the return to full bars of Calvin Johnson. I think Matt Stafford is a budding star, and I think this team will throw a lot.
8. What will the Arizona offense look like?
Matt Leinart is going to win that job, but is likely to be a bit more challenged than Kurt Warner at the helm. I think Larry Fitzgerald will suffer a bit, and I think Beanie Wells gets a boost in value as the Cards run a more traditional offense. Remember, Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers offensive coordinator when they ran, ran, and ran some more.
9. Who is the number two wide receiver?
I say Calvin Johnson. I like Detroit's offense, and all the candidates have major questions. Has Reggie Wayne lost a step? Yes. Can Miles Austin handle being a number one? Yes. Will Leinart hurt Fitz? Yes. Is Moss close to being done? Yes. Those are really the only candidates right now behind the clear number one, Andre Johnson. My rankings say Andre, Calvin, Austin.
10. Will Gary Kubiak regain the favor of TFAM?
Yeah, no, not likely. I'd rather sit on a stick of dynamite than rely on Ben Tate, Steve Slaton, Arian Foster or whoever else he has delcared his starter by week five.
Hey, I got to ten!
Cheers,
TFAM
1. Will LaDainian Tomlinson be the Jets goal line back?
I don't care about LT's touches between the 20s, but he is a major fantasy factor looming as a potential TD vulture. If Greene gets goal line touches, he's top 10 overall. If not? He's a middle tier RB2.
2. How will the Chiefs running back situation shake out?
Jamaal Charles only amassed 1112 total yards and eight scores in the Chiefs final eight games last season, so it figures the braintrust would bring in an aging veteran hungry for touches in Thomas Jones? Wait, what? Yeah, it's the Chiefs. But, they have an easy schedule, and Jamaal could still be gold if the team uses him on 75% of the offensive snaps. Jones is probably the goal line guy.
3. Does Brett Favre matter?
Absolutely. To me, there's no question that Rice, Harvin and Shiancoe have their fantasy values tied directly to the right arm of the gunslinger. Peterson's value is probably unchanged either way. Maybe more carries without Favre, but more effective carries with him.
4. Now that Mike Bell is gone, will Pierre Thomas emerge?
I hope so, but I'm skeptical. Once something works for a coach, they are likely to go back to the well. So, while Lynell Hamilton isn't likely to see much action between the 20s, he is a good bet to score 5-10 TDs as we all watch Pierre trot to the sideline inside the five. Reggie Bush has little impact on Thomas' value.
5. Is Mike Martz a genius?
He might be, but he hasn't been much of an offensive coordinator lately, at least if you are judging by wins and losses. Maybe he's good at Boggle. Anyway, Martz goes to Chicago and fantasy owners are excited about the prospects of his pass happy attack. Wouldn't it be funny if Jay Cutler threw for 35 TD and 28 INT? It remains to be seen how it works, but it's hard not to like Cutler more than last year, and Johnny Knox and Aromoshodu are intriguing fanatsy options. I bet they both outscore Hester, who never lives up to the unwarranted hype.
6. Can Kevin Kolb play?
He has the value of Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and to a lesser extent LeSean McCoy hanging in the balance. I'm a Kolb guy (and not a McCoy fan), so, I like his fantasy value in a pass happy offense. I'm just not sure if he can get it down the field like McNabb did, which may spell trouble for Jackson.
7. Is Detroit a lurking hotbed of fantasy goodness?
I think so. Since last year they've added an explosive back in Jahvid Best, a good number two WR in Burleson, and seen the return to full bars of Calvin Johnson. I think Matt Stafford is a budding star, and I think this team will throw a lot.
8. What will the Arizona offense look like?
Matt Leinart is going to win that job, but is likely to be a bit more challenged than Kurt Warner at the helm. I think Larry Fitzgerald will suffer a bit, and I think Beanie Wells gets a boost in value as the Cards run a more traditional offense. Remember, Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers offensive coordinator when they ran, ran, and ran some more.
9. Who is the number two wide receiver?
I say Calvin Johnson. I like Detroit's offense, and all the candidates have major questions. Has Reggie Wayne lost a step? Yes. Can Miles Austin handle being a number one? Yes. Will Leinart hurt Fitz? Yes. Is Moss close to being done? Yes. Those are really the only candidates right now behind the clear number one, Andre Johnson. My rankings say Andre, Calvin, Austin.
10. Will Gary Kubiak regain the favor of TFAM?
Yeah, no, not likely. I'd rather sit on a stick of dynamite than rely on Ben Tate, Steve Slaton, Arian Foster or whoever else he has delcared his starter by week five.
Hey, I got to ten!
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
WGC at Firestone
UPDATE: Robert Allenby tore knee ligaments in a fishing accident last weekend. He's out at least three weeks.
I really enjoy the WGC events. Most of the top players in the world play, there is no cut in the stroke play versions (so my picks look better!), and the courses are difficult enough where Stuart Appleby would be more likely to shoot 59 on the back than on the full 18.
This week, the Bridgestone is up, and it's played at Firestone CC in Ohio, which is a course that has been owned by one Tiger Woods. Woods has won the event seven times in ten tries (including his last four) and never finished worse than fourth at the course...a record that you'd be hard pressed to better searching the annals of golf history. That makes Tiger the favorite, even if he couldn't win at Augusta, Pebble, or St. Andrews, his other three faves, this season.
The rest of the field is good, so if Tiger stumbles, this thing is wide open. Paul Casey, Luke Donald and Justin Rose are on form, and all have two top tens in this event. Westwood has played like the Champion Golfer of the Year in 2010, although he didn't earn the title in Scotland, and he's got top tens in his last two appearances at Firestone.
As for the non-Euros, Furyk and Vijay have played this course very well, with Vijay winning in lieu of Tiger's ACL in 2008. I'm not sure either is the winner, but top 20s are very likely. Robert Allenby can play this course too, he finished second last year....and don't count out Americans Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson, who are primed for breakout wins on the semi-major stage.
Of course, as I pointed out earlier, the field is very strong, and any number of players could win. Phil and Ernie are here too, though this doesn't appear to be their favorite venue. Stricker and Louis Oosthuizen both have wins in the last month too.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Els
McIlroy
Who's Hot?
Westwood
Oosthuizen
Stricker
Rose
Casey
Who's Not?
Woods
Garcia
Cabrera
Weir
Cink
Course History
Woods
V. Singh
Furyk
Z. Johnson
Westwood
My Picks
Woods
Casey
Rose
D. Johnson
Stenson
Cheers,
TFAM
I really enjoy the WGC events. Most of the top players in the world play, there is no cut in the stroke play versions (so my picks look better!), and the courses are difficult enough where Stuart Appleby would be more likely to shoot 59 on the back than on the full 18.
This week, the Bridgestone is up, and it's played at Firestone CC in Ohio, which is a course that has been owned by one Tiger Woods. Woods has won the event seven times in ten tries (including his last four) and never finished worse than fourth at the course...a record that you'd be hard pressed to better searching the annals of golf history. That makes Tiger the favorite, even if he couldn't win at Augusta, Pebble, or St. Andrews, his other three faves, this season.
The rest of the field is good, so if Tiger stumbles, this thing is wide open. Paul Casey, Luke Donald and Justin Rose are on form, and all have two top tens in this event. Westwood has played like the Champion Golfer of the Year in 2010, although he didn't earn the title in Scotland, and he's got top tens in his last two appearances at Firestone.
As for the non-Euros, Furyk and Vijay have played this course very well, with Vijay winning in lieu of Tiger's ACL in 2008. I'm not sure either is the winner, but top 20s are very likely. Robert Allenby can play this course too, he finished second last year....and don't count out Americans Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson, who are primed for breakout wins on the semi-major stage.
Of course, as I pointed out earlier, the field is very strong, and any number of players could win. Phil and Ernie are here too, though this doesn't appear to be their favorite venue. Stricker and Louis Oosthuizen both have wins in the last month too.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
Westwood
Els
McIlroy
Who's Hot?
Westwood
Oosthuizen
Stricker
Rose
Casey
Who's Not?
Woods
Garcia
Cabrera
Weir
Cink
Course History
Woods
V. Singh
Furyk
Z. Johnson
Westwood
My Picks
Woods
Casey
Rose
D. Johnson
Stenson
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, August 2, 2010
Double your pleasure
It's football time friends, and you're going to see more of it than baseball from here on out. Today? The argument for the two quarterback format.
Why does the so called standard fantasy football league only allow one starting quarterback?
If we are talking a 12 team league we have 24-36 running backs in starting lineups (or approx. 1 per NFL team), 24-48 WR/TE (1.5 per team) and one quarterback (less than .5 per team). It really doesn't make any sense. All the starting running backs matter, most of the starting receivers matter, and less than half of the quarterbacks are relevant?
The most important argument against a league that starts one quarterback is that it completely devalues the position. Half the teams in fantasy leagues are waiting on QBs and taking Phil Rivers in the fifth round and this is okay? Phil Rivers as the 50th best player in fantasy? Peyton Manning as the 15th best player in fantasy? Why does that make any sense? Yet, if I can get Rivers (or Romo, or Favre, or McNabb) later, I'm absolutely going to hit the scarcer positions first. It's just not right.
Now, picture a league where 36 quarterbacks are drafted and 24 are started every week. You think Manning is lasting until 15 then? No way. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady et al. SHOULD all be first round picks. They are the best players in the game. You should have to fight to get these guys. No one is going to wait on QBs when the penalty is an Orton-Hasselbeck pu pu platter.
In addition, two quarterback leagues allow for more strategy. In many leagues, quarterbacks are the highest scoring players (and I think they should be). Now, you have the option of pairing Romo with Brees and really altering the landscape of the draft/auction. It's just flat out more fun. One quarterback leagues are so robotic and there really isn't a lot of flexibility with draft strategies. Increase the value of the QB by adding two starters (most easily accomplished by adding a flex spot (or a second flex spot, where a QB is allowed), and the draft and the league immediately become more entertaining for all. The best players in the game should be a valued quanitity, period.
Cheers,
TFAM
Why does the so called standard fantasy football league only allow one starting quarterback?
If we are talking a 12 team league we have 24-36 running backs in starting lineups (or approx. 1 per NFL team), 24-48 WR/TE (1.5 per team) and one quarterback (less than .5 per team). It really doesn't make any sense. All the starting running backs matter, most of the starting receivers matter, and less than half of the quarterbacks are relevant?
The most important argument against a league that starts one quarterback is that it completely devalues the position. Half the teams in fantasy leagues are waiting on QBs and taking Phil Rivers in the fifth round and this is okay? Phil Rivers as the 50th best player in fantasy? Peyton Manning as the 15th best player in fantasy? Why does that make any sense? Yet, if I can get Rivers (or Romo, or Favre, or McNabb) later, I'm absolutely going to hit the scarcer positions first. It's just not right.
Now, picture a league where 36 quarterbacks are drafted and 24 are started every week. You think Manning is lasting until 15 then? No way. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady et al. SHOULD all be first round picks. They are the best players in the game. You should have to fight to get these guys. No one is going to wait on QBs when the penalty is an Orton-Hasselbeck pu pu platter.
In addition, two quarterback leagues allow for more strategy. In many leagues, quarterbacks are the highest scoring players (and I think they should be). Now, you have the option of pairing Romo with Brees and really altering the landscape of the draft/auction. It's just flat out more fun. One quarterback leagues are so robotic and there really isn't a lot of flexibility with draft strategies. Increase the value of the QB by adding two starters (most easily accomplished by adding a flex spot (or a second flex spot, where a QB is allowed), and the draft and the league immediately become more entertaining for all. The best players in the game should be a valued quanitity, period.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Deadline Drama
Heavy football coverage starts tomorrow.
In one of my baseball leagues, an owner made a large deal a couple months ago. He moved Ryan Howard for Carlos Pena, Yo Gallardo, and Andrew Bailey. The team acquiring the threespot was basically out of contention and going to be looking (at some point) to build toward the future. I thought the deal was curious for that reason. As much as I like Carlos and Yo, those guys (unless Gallardo had been lights out) just weren't going to help him rebuild in trades at the deadline. I know, as an owner who is usually a buyer at the deadline, that I try and land the biggest fish possible. If I'm sacrificing part of next year for a player(s) that will only be with me for a month and change, they better be high impact guys (and Howard > Pena). Which made me wonder, why give up Howard and crate less leverage at the deadline? I bet he gets nothing for Gallardo, Pena, or Bailey today, which is our league's deadline. It was a trade made by a non-contender that would have only helped a contender.
As far as the real deadline goes, there are a few interesting tidbits. Tyler Clippard pitched (poorly) in the seventh inning last night. I think Storen is the guy you want in the Nats pen. Pittsburgh isn't tipping their hand yet. It's 50/50 between Hanrahan and Meek.
Colby Rasmus may (and should) see an uptick in PT now that Ludwick is gone.
It looks like it's Juan Gutierrez for saves in Arizona with Heilman having an outside shot.
Gordon Beckham should be in all starting lineups right now.
Dom Brown isn't much of a play for 2010, especially when Victorino returns, but he'll be a 2011 full time starter, and was the number one prospect in the minors when he was recalled.
Brett Wallace should hit right away in Houston, but isn't a high impact guy.
I love that Berkman goes to New York, but he'll see fewer at bats, and won't see an increase in fantasy value. The deal also dings the value of Posada, who has sore knees and needs some of his ABs to come at DH.
Delmon Young is unreal. Mea culpa!
Jeremy Hellickson will start for the Rays on Monday, then, I'm guessing, will be moved to the bullpen for the stretch run.
Cheers,
TFAM
In one of my baseball leagues, an owner made a large deal a couple months ago. He moved Ryan Howard for Carlos Pena, Yo Gallardo, and Andrew Bailey. The team acquiring the threespot was basically out of contention and going to be looking (at some point) to build toward the future. I thought the deal was curious for that reason. As much as I like Carlos and Yo, those guys (unless Gallardo had been lights out) just weren't going to help him rebuild in trades at the deadline. I know, as an owner who is usually a buyer at the deadline, that I try and land the biggest fish possible. If I'm sacrificing part of next year for a player(s) that will only be with me for a month and change, they better be high impact guys (and Howard > Pena). Which made me wonder, why give up Howard and crate less leverage at the deadline? I bet he gets nothing for Gallardo, Pena, or Bailey today, which is our league's deadline. It was a trade made by a non-contender that would have only helped a contender.
As far as the real deadline goes, there are a few interesting tidbits. Tyler Clippard pitched (poorly) in the seventh inning last night. I think Storen is the guy you want in the Nats pen. Pittsburgh isn't tipping their hand yet. It's 50/50 between Hanrahan and Meek.
Colby Rasmus may (and should) see an uptick in PT now that Ludwick is gone.
It looks like it's Juan Gutierrez for saves in Arizona with Heilman having an outside shot.
Gordon Beckham should be in all starting lineups right now.
Dom Brown isn't much of a play for 2010, especially when Victorino returns, but he'll be a 2011 full time starter, and was the number one prospect in the minors when he was recalled.
Brett Wallace should hit right away in Houston, but isn't a high impact guy.
I love that Berkman goes to New York, but he'll see fewer at bats, and won't see an increase in fantasy value. The deal also dings the value of Posada, who has sore knees and needs some of his ABs to come at DH.
Delmon Young is unreal. Mea culpa!
Jeremy Hellickson will start for the Rays on Monday, then, I'm guessing, will be moved to the bullpen for the stretch run.
Cheers,
TFAM
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