Sunday, December 26, 2010

Sunday hunch

Ah, the joys of fantasy football.  You play a whole season with a great team, then have to have things decided by who added Rashad Jennings to their roster first this week, or whether or not a game will be played in a blizzard in Philadelphia.  You have MoJo?  Not today you don't.  You want 35 out of Michael Vick?  I don't think so.

Please give some sort of advantage in the playoffs to a great regular season team.  Not a big one, but, as a tiebreaker, the team with the higher playoff seed should win.  They earned an advantage.

Speaking of Jennings, he is a great play today against the Redskins.  He's over 100 with a score at the very least.

I'm also benching Ryan Torain, again.  I just don't see it, and the touchdown (on a 20+ yard catch, no less) was a fluke last week.

Start Aaron Rodgers.  I'm not worried at all about the concussion.  He should throw at least two TDs today in a game where I think we'll see some points.

With Andre Johnson looking doubtful, Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels all see a boost in value against the Broncos.

Tim Tebow is very viable against Houston at home today.

How to address the Vikings and Eagles.  If they play in the snowstrom tonight, I think everyone gets downgraded.  Its hard to make calls on specific guys without knowing rosters, but if you have alternatives who are very close, I'd use them in almost all occasions.  Stopping short of benching DeSean Jackson for Nate Burleson of course, but I'd certainly play a guy like Kevin Walter or Jacoby Jones over Sidney Rice, for example.

Cheers,
TFAM

Friday, December 24, 2010

Bowling for dollars

It's that time of year again, when we all get the chance to spend time with family while huddled around the TV to watch the Meinike Car Care Bowl.  Good times.

Actually, I like watching the bowl games to get a final chance to watch some players perform in a real game who are going to be makng an impact in the NFL.  To me, game tape is better than combine tape, and this is my last chance.  Here are some guys to watch, heralded and lesser known, who may be making a huge impact on (Thursdays, Saturdays) Sundays (and Mondays) next year.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Cam is probably going to be the most talked about prospect heading into the 2011 draft, and I'm a fan.  He's better than Tebow was in college and his running abiltiy is going to be a boon for fantasy purposes.  He plays in the championship game against Oregon, you may have heard.

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
I'm a huge believer in Ingram as a pro and the comparison to Emmitt Smith is a good one.  If you watch him in the Capital One Bowl on January 1, watch for how good he is at maintaianing balance, breaking tackles and gaining tough yards.  He's a potential fantasy first rounder on the right team (Seattle?), and should be the first player taken in dynasty drafts.

AJ Green, WR, Georgia
Green was suspended early in the year, then lit the SEC on fire with nine TDs in the team's last eight games.  Green is 6'4, and has the athletic ability to dominate in the NFL.  He should be featured by the Bulldogs offense in the Liberty Bowl on New Year's Eve.

Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Hard to separate Jones and Green.  To me they are the same guy, big and fast and good hands, thought Jones has known to play well down by the schoolyard.  He should be a touchdown machine in the NFL, and he'll join Ingram against Michigan State on January 1st.

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
If you want another Sam Bradford (and I do), this is your guy.  He is a polished dropback passer with some mobility that should be the number one pick in the draft, should he declare.  Luck is a guy who is going to take a bit of time to make a fanatsy impact if he goes to a team like Carolina, but we thought the same thing about Bradford with the Rams.  Luck faces a decent Virginia Tech defense in the Orange Bowl on January 3rd.

Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
Broyles may be the guy I'm most excited to watch in the bowl games.  He's small (5'11), but he is the best WR going in college football, and I think he has a chance to be a very good NFL player, though he is likely a second rounder at best.  Broyles has over 2500 yards and has scored 28 TDs in the last two seasons for the Sooners, who play Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl on January 1st.

Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State
Blackmon joins Broyles as a very productive college WR without the fantastic measurables (he's only 6'1).  He plays big, but may be caught in between the slot type (Broyles) and the bigger outside WRs (Jones, Green), kinda like Michael Crabtree was two years ago.  I like Blackmon, because he seems to get open on every play (and because he had over 1600 yards and 18 TDs THIS YEAR), and it will be fun to watch him against Arizona in the Alamo Bowl on December 29th.

Jon Baldwin, WR. Pitt
Baldwin is interesting due to his size (6'5), but he doesn't have the production to go with the rest of these guys, as he amassed just 5 TDs this year.  Part of that surely has to do with bad QB play, but 810 yards and five TDs is still not enough for me.  Larry Fitzgerald didn't have Dan Marino throwing to him when he was at Pitt and he seemed to do OK.  The Panthers play Kentucky on January 8th in something called the BBVA Compass Bowl.

Others to watch...

Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
Wasn't as great this year as in 2009.  Could go back to school.  Orange Bowl, January 3rd.

LaMichael James, RB, Orgegon
He has the huge numbers, but were the solely due to the teams's incrdible offense?  He's also only 5'9.  Watch him in the title game.

Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
He's huge and has a big arm.  Questions are about his mobility and accuracy.  He gets a nice test in the Sugar Bowl January 4th against Ohio Sate.

Jake Locker, QB, Washington
He'e the anti-Mallett.  Very mobile, good intangibles, but no gaudy numbers.  He also gets a big test in a rematch with Nebraska, who dominated the Huskies and Locker earlier in the year.  They face off December 30th in the Holiday Bowl.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays.  Catch you Sunday morning.

Cheers,
TFAM

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

As Seen on TV

Does it matter anymore what I saw on TV?  I mean, if you're still alive in Week 16 you're a better fantasy player than I in 2010 and you should probably be sending me YOUR columns.  Of course, most of those columns would say, just add Mike Vick in Week 1 and you're golden.  Actually, one guy in a league I play in drafted Vick, and yes, he's the favorite in the Fantasy Bowl this week.

Anyway...

Tim Tebow is worth playing, for the rushing yards and TDs alone.  He plays Houston this week, and should be a top 10 QB option.

There is nothing to fear about the Vikings defense Sunday night.  Start all your Eagles with confidence.  That group looks cooked.

Matt Flynn, I apologize, but Rodgers should be back this week.

Don't get too excited about Rex and those Redskins.  I thought they were awful for much of that game, and the Jags should handle them Sunday.

LaGarrette Blount scored, but he was not in the game at the goal line.  They don't have a goal line back right now that they trust besdies Josh Freeman.

And Maurice Morris is clearly the Lions goal line back.  He's a decent play against Miami this week.

CJ Spiller had 11 touches Sunday.  He could be a sneaky pickup this week if you need a flex paly against New England.  There should be some points to be had in that game provided the weather cooperates.

This shouldn't be breaking news, but Ronnie Brown is ahead of Ricky Williams.  It'll be interesting to see what happens to those guys in the offseason.  I bet at least one won't be back.

Jamaal Charles 11-126, Thomas Jones 22-62.  I needed to mention that one more time this year.  I understand the need for rest, but the number or carries should be 2-to-1 in favor of Charles at the very least.

The Rams are going to be a fantasy gold mine for WRs in the near future.  I believe in Sam Bradford.

Tashard Choice > Felix Jones.  We've known this all year, right?  Goodbye, Marion Barber.

Jacob Tamme is more of a factor when Austin Collie is not in the game.  He's a nice play this week against Oakland.

No sneaky pickups tomorrow, so go get Morris, Spiller and Tamme.  I'm going to write my bowl column tomorrow or Thursday instead highlighting players you should be watching in the college bowl games that will be making an impact in fantasy leagues last year.

Cheers,
TFAM

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Sunday Hunch

I'm celebrating this morning as a Zack Greinke owner in my dynasty baseball league.  That's what you want to hear about right?  That and what the Governor of Missouri is up to?

Okay, football, but this still concerns the Governor of Missouri.

I know you aren;t with me, but I'm going to bat for Danario Alexander again against the Chiefs this afternoon.  And, apparently someone agrees with me, at least in the fact that this guy needs the football.

I hinted at this yesterday, but I was watching Keiland Williams steal the short yardage plays from Ryan Torain last week.  Most are saying to start Torain, I'm benching him at Dallas.

I think you have to bench all your Broncos receivers and all your Packers today with Orton and Rodgers out.  You can't even play Greg JenningsMoreno is tricky, and he's a low end start, and I'm also wondering if Tebow is going to run enough to be a sneaky play in two QB leagues?

I don't think you can start anyone in the Steelers-Jets game either.  Low point totals, and I'd be surprised if the Jets don't step up huge on defense here.

Oh yeah. This is the call of the week.  Start Vincent Jackson against the 49ers.

Only weather game today is in Oakland, where the rain is apparently going to be a major factor.  You can still start McFadden though.

Cheers,
TFAM

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Just thinkin' about tomorrow

It's Week 15, and it comes with a little sadness for me, as I've only got one team left and their momentum has faded.  As a matter of fact, I thought I heard my baloon pop Thursday night when Vernon Davis' image was stamped to milk cartons, but I'll wait until Monday night to be sure.

Anyway, what will I be watching for this week to prepare for Week 16 analysis (and next year)?

The Redskins RB situation.  Many love Torain this week, but I wonder if Keiland Williams won't end up stealing the small amount of value that's left in that offense with Sexy Rexy at the helm.

Let's stay in Dallas and look at the Cowboys RBs too.  If Barber plays, it's back to Ghidrah.  If he doesn't, will Choice be a TD option.  I'm benching him for Blount in my close call of the week, but it is closer than you think.

And that's because of the presence of Earnest Graham.  I dealt Peyton Hillis in my dynasty league because I had Blount primed for these next two weeks when he faces Detroit and Seattle.  Now I'm a bit remorseful with Graham stealing the goal line.  Another reason for remorse?  John Skelton.  I dealt Hills and Crabtree for Fitzgerald.

Is Kerry Collins going to join the line of QBs to light up the Texans?

And how about that Andre Johnson-Cortland Finnegan rematch?  I'd put the dough on the Texans trying to get Andre off in the grudge match.

Sam Bradford gets back to the friendly confines and faces a reeling Chiefs pass defense.  The question is, who gets the TDs for the Rams?  It's been a mystery all year.

Will Matt Cassel play?  If he doesn't, will Brodie Croyle top 50 yards?  Dwayne Bowe just murdered fantasy teams last week.

Austin Colllie or Pierre Garcon?  Both appear set to go, and I want to know which is the better play next week.  I'd lean Pierre for this week, just to the the recurrance potential with the concussion.

Is Joe Webb the death blow for Adrian Peterson?  Remember, AP has endured Tarvaris before and kept on trucking.

Tim Tebow!  Lots of QB situations could really effect things down the stretch.  The lesson?  It's always a good idea to have players with the most stable QB situations in place.

Mike Vick gets his toughest matchup of the year at New York.

Who's running the ball these days for New Orleans?  Ivory appears to be toast.

Carolina and Arizona.  Wow, which of Hightower or Stewart has the bigger game?  Both should thrive, and I'm dying for a Fitzgerald TD.

We've been waiting all year for Week 15, Ronnie Brown versus the Bills at home.  Can he reward everyone?  An by everyone of course, I mean my team that lost last week with Ronnie Brown getting me five points.

Matt Flynn will destroy the value of the entire Packers offense if he plays.  Trust me.  If Rodgers isn't looking like the starter by noon, I'd be looking at other options for all those guys.

Have fun everyone.

Cheers,
TFAM

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Who's in, who's out?

I'm in an awful place.  Only one of my three teams is still alive, and my players are relying on Alex Smith, Joe Webb, and John Skelton to get them the ball.  Ugh.  Vernon Davis has zero catches in the third quarter.  I HATE the 49ers coaching staff.

Anyway, last year I received some positive feedback about my reflective columns about which players were and were not on playoff fantasy teams in my three leagues.  This year, I again played in three, and these are the players that made the playofss in all three leagues.

Note:  Players had to contribute in a difference-making manner to be considered...

Ben Roethlisberger
Jon Kitna
Sam Bradford
Matt Forte
Chris Johnson
Jamaal Charles
Darren McFadden
LeSean McCoy
Marques Colston
Greg Jennings
Dwayne Bowe
Terrell Owens
Wes Welker
Donald Driver

That's it.  Pretty interesting, and certainly a who's who when it comes to breakout performers this year.  With the exception of Michael Vick, Hakeem Nicks and Arian Foster, I'd argue that many of these guys have been THE difference makers in leagues this year.  McFadden, McCoy, Bowe and Owens certainly exceeded expectations, and isn't it interesting that Chris Johnson had a down year and it was still good enough to get it done?  Makes a nice argument for just taking the best guy in an auction and then letting the chips fall.

Next week, we'll look at players than made the playoffs in none of my three leagues.

Cheers,
TFAM

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Sneaky Pickups

It happens more often than you think.

No, I'm not talking about my watching of Pussycat Dolls videos.

Teams that make the fantasy final four are thought to be complete squads that don't need any of the fodder that may be hiding on the waiver wire this time of year.  Maybe sometimes, sure.  But I bet Patrick Jeffers and Jerome Harrison are wearing their share of fantasy jewelry as well.

Who's out there that can make a difference this week?

I talked yesterday about Tim Hightower and Javarris James.  Both are fantasy starters this week unless we see a change of status regarding Joe Addai or Chris Wells.

What about everyone's favorite three TD QB Kerry CollinsCollins draws the Texans defense which just has to be worth 200 and two at a minimum.

That same Texans defense certainly brings Nate Washington and, on the off chance he was dropped, Kenny Britt into play.

And, for those of you in TD only leagues, Earnest Graham faces the Lions, and he got the goal line last week.

Bonus column tomorrow.  Players that made the playoffs in all three of my leagues, and what that says.

Cheers,
TFAM

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

As Seen on TV

So, I was talking to a colleague today who was close to being named The Fantasy Answer Woman this season, due to her ability to make the right lineup calls week in and week out (and having the foresight to draft Hakeem Nicks and Arian Foster -- she liked the names!).  Unfortunately, TFAW lost her first round playoff matchup this week by a scant few points.  Hey, it happens, right?  No shame in making the playoffs and losing in round one.  Especially when the two guys you relied on most (Foster and Nicks) both fail to get in the end zone.  BUT....

She started Earl Bennett and Mike Thomas over Malcom Floyd, which cost her the win.  Now, Bennett has been superb, Thomas decent, and Floyd no great shakes since he came back from injury.  Still, you simply cannot lose in the fantasy playoffs by being asleep at the wheel.  It was widely reported that New England and Chicago were contesting their game Sunday on the equivalent of Planet Hoth in Soldier Field.  There simply was no way Bennett was the correct call over Floyd.  No way.  And it cost her a shot at a fantasy title.  No excuse for that, except that she's pregnant and needed a nap.  Awwww.  I have a soft spot for pregnant women these days.

Anyway, in short.  Lose in the playoffs, fine.  But don't lose making errors that simply cannot be made.

What else did I see watching the games Sunday besides frozen wampa?

Brandon Jacobs looks like he has his swagger (and his starting gig) back.  He's a fantasy starter the rest of the way on most teams, even if he splits the goal line touches with Bradshaw.

I know Jacoby Jones has not met expectations this year, but Monday was certainly a momentum gaining performance.

I'm worried about AP, yes, but you have to start him against Chicago next week.  The rest of the Vikes are all bench guys.

If you're straw grasping, Javarris James got 17 carries last week and he's got six TDs in his last six games.

Tim Hightower 18-148-2.  He plays the Panthers next week, which just so happens to have ceded three rushing TDs to EACH of Peyton Hillis, Marshawn Lynch and Michael Turner in the past three weeks.

You have to like Jon Stewart in that game too.

Earnest Graham was in at the goal line when I saw the Bucs at the one.  Poor LaGarrette Blount owners with the Lions coming to town.

For all those that watched Ryan Torain threaten to break AP's rushing record (at least for a half), Keiland Williams was the short yardage guy.

What has happened to the quarterback play in this league.  If you are getting paid a million dollars as a backup QB can't your team depend on you for more than 40 yards passing Brodie Croyle?  I can;t even come to terms with how embarrassing the Chiefs performance was.

Chad Henne, you aren't getting off the hook either just because your team won.  Five completions?

There's no question that Alex Smith swirls the Ghirardelli more efficeintly than Troy Smith in San Francisco.  That's great news for Vernon Davis, though my friends have put out APBs in recent weeks regarding Michael CrabtreeMaybe he moved to Green Bay?

I have no idea what is wrong with Danario Alexander, but I take full responsibility if you have kept the faith.  I think you've been defriended by all but one, Danario.

Finally, I have never seen a quarterback run like Sam Bradford did Sunday chasing down Roman Harper.  Good for you Sam, now throw it to 84!

Cheers,
TFAM

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Thanks for nothing

Sunday hunch

If you go to http://www.accuweather.com/ this morning, you'll see that CHI-NE, CIN-PIT, MIA-NYJ, CLE-BUF, and TB-WAS are absolutely going to be weather games.  It will be hard to start the passing games of any of those teams, but it may be unavoidable, I suppose.  If that's the case, I guess I'd bet on the Wes Welker types over the Mike Wallace types just because of the difficulty with lengthy passes in difficult conditions.

One more thing to think about with these conditions are kickers.  It may behoove you to add one of the kickers with better conditions today, such as Josh Brown of St. Louis.  Conversely, maybe the Bills or Browns defense can help you out depending on your league's scoring system.

I have a hunch that Tashard Choice outplays Felix Jones tonight for the second straight game.

Also, Roy Williams is a great sneaky play against the Eagles defense.

I know the Falcons are great against the run, but I'd start Jonathan Stewart today with confidence.  I think he gets close to 100 and a score.

I think Alex Smith is great for Vernon DavisVD is a lock to score today and Smith will put up starter worthy numbers.  I think San Francisco will blow out Seattle.

Cheers,
TFAM

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Just thinkin' about tomorrow

I'm actually going to start by thinking a bit about what happened the other night.  As I was watching the Titans-Colts game (otherwise known as the gift from the gods to those dumb enough to have started Kerry Collins -- that's me!), I started thinking about Chris Johnson and his struggles this year.  I'm not going to pretend to know if CJ is worn down, playing behind a worse line, or just not getting any support from a passing game.  However, it is indisputable that his numbers are way down from 2009, and that got me wondering.  Will the Titans bring in another back to take some of the workload away from Johnson in 2011?  Will they opt to increase the load for current backup Javon Ringer?  It's at least worth thinking about considering Johnson's struggles.  Many NFL teams have cut into their stars' touches for less defensible reasons.  It's worth thinking about, at least for keeper leaguers at this point right now.  How much value would Johnson lose if they stripped away his goal line touches?

Anyway, here is what I'm thinking about...looking forward.

Weather, weather, weather.  It's going to play a major factor tomorrow.

Will 49ers RB Anthony Dixon claim the role?

How is Ryan Torain going to fit into the Redskins backfield?  Is he really healthy?

No Asante Samuel for Philly.  Exactly how many points are we going to see in Dallas tomorrow night?  Start EVERYONE.  We haven't seen a game with more fantasy potential than the Broncos-Chiefs tilt last week that ended 10-6.

How are we supposed to view Brandon Jackson-James Starks and Darren McFadden-Michael Bush in light of Starks and Bush getting more carries last week?

Is the Seattle passing game dead?  No Williams, no ObamanuBrandon Stokley?  Ugh.

I'm looking forward to seeing the Chargers offense.  Ryan Mathews?  Mike Tolbert?  Floyd?  V-Jax?  I think Floyd is a nice play.  The rest are dice rolls.

Pierre Thomas is supposed to return to the Saints lineup.  Just in time to kill everyone who made a late push using Chris Ivory these last few weeks.

John Skelton is now in charge of keeping Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy season alive.  We wish you well.

And of course, the weekly confession of love for Danario Alexander.  This week he's scoring three times.  Or once.

Cheers,
TFAM

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Sneaky Pickups

And it has come to this.

Really, this is no more a pickups column than it is a eulogy of my season in one of my leagues.  I made the playoffs in two of three leagues, but one team is almost certainly bowing out this week.  Why am I so confident?  Well, remember way back in August when I was touting two QB leagues as the only way to play fantasy football?  Well, I'm singing a different tune now after hitching my season to Vince Young's shoulder pads and Matt Cassel's useless appendages for my playoff run.  Yep, it may be Kerry Collins and Brody Croyle (yes, he of the 0-9 career record as an NFL starter) driving my clown car into the ground this week in my most important league.  Such is life when you do play two QB football and all the guys are taken, and shame on me for not putting myself in a better position.  I mean, we all saw this appendectomy coming, right?

Anyway, James Davis, Tashard Choice, and James Starks all popped up this week as viable fantasy options going forward at the running back position.  If I had to rank them I'd go Choice, Starks, Davis, mostly because the Cowboys miraculously have fewer cooks in the kitchen right now than the Packers or Redskins.

However, the real sneaky pickup this week may lie at the WR position, as Roy Williams may once again rise to fantasy prominance the rest of the way.  With Dez Bryant out, Williams gets Philly, Washington and Arizona the next three weeks, which sets up pretty nicely.  I think he's an add in every league right now.

Good luck, and think of me when the Colts are wiping with Kerry Collins towel tomorrow night.

Cheers,
TFAM

Monday, December 6, 2010

As seen on TV

It's pretty crazy watching the difference between Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes as far as catching a football.  You might even go as far to say one can catch while one cannot.  It's probably that simple.  This game isn't over (it's halftime).  Remember the Jets crushed the Pats in the second half earlier this year.

I saw a few more things of interest while watching yesterday that I'd like to share.  As always, in no particular order...

Anthony Dixon was used inside the five for the 49ers and looks to be the more valuable guy in that backfield.  It may not be close.

James Starks?  Yep, the guy many thought may be a factor at some point this year has emerged just after most who took a flier cut him loose.  If you didn't see the box score, Starks' 18-73 was a stunning development considering Brandon Jackson had just four carries.  Further complicating matters is the continued presence of John Kuhn, who ran in a goal line score.  Starks is worth a look though.

I have a feeling Ray Rice is likely to be the least valuable player in fantasy this season.  Or Chris Johnson.  Or Larry Fitzgerald, but at least we saw that one coming.  Or (crap) Shonn Greene.  Or Ryan Mathews (winner?).

I think Derek Anderson's play is funny.  Funny enough that I was talking to my friend about it on the couch yesterday while my fantasy team was taking a beating.  We were laughing together.  Is that cool if your fantasy team is losing?  If he really cared as much as he said he'd hold the clipboard for the rest of the season.

It's hard to look as bad as Marshawn Lynch did yesterday in a 25+ point fantasy day.  He just has little to offer other than this one moment to sell high.

Felix Jones 22 carries, Tashard Choice 19.  Choice got the money zone.  It's very much worth paying attention to Choice for this year and beyond.

Jahvid Best looked healthier yesterday than I've seen him in a month.

Seven (of the team's 28) targets for Danario Alexander.  My love will not let you down.

Tim Hightower 15 carries, Beanie Wells 3.  Does it matter with their QB situation?

No AP injury issues going forward.  He looked very good.

I think we can play the Giants backs just like Miami's duo.  They'll split the workload in all situations pretty evenly.  Slight edge to Bradshaw as a pass catcher, and for being a bit less crazy.

That Tennessee offense is tragic right now.  Six points at home against the Jags?

Cheers,
TFAM

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Sunday hunch

I'm watching an interesting report by Ed Werder (who always does great work) on ESPN right now about the Chiefs.  Seems they will not let bygones be bygones in regards to the beating they took at Mile High Stadium a few weeks back.  If you remember, Chiefs coach Todd Haley wouldn't shake Josh McDaniels hand, feeling the Broncos ran up the score on his Chiefs.  Incidentally, that may mean Haley doesn't have Dwayne Bowe on his fantasy team (as has been suspected in light of Bowe's recent Jerry Rice impression), becuase said running up the score was very good for the fantasy numbers of Bowe and Matt Cassel, who put together one of the all time garbage performance games that day as a result.  Anyway, should we expect the Chiefs to keep the foot on the gas today if they get a nice lead over Denver?  This one should be a shootout.

I have a few other hunches today as we move into must win terrotory for many fantasy teams out there.

I have a hunch, and I know the stats don't back this up, that the Bears struggle today.  Not sure why, I just smell it.  I know you're salivating with the Lions matchup, but I'm just saying, I don't think Cutler, Knox and Forte are must plays today.

I also have a hunch Anthony Dixon outscores Brian Westbrook the rest of the way.  Today though, the Niners are likely to be playing from behind against Green Bay, so I'd stick with Westbrook.

Speaking of the rest of the way, I'm in favor of Mike Hart over Donald Brown today and for the rest of the season.  Just make sure Hart plays before you lock him in.  It's a late game.

Danario Alexander is scoring today.

You want a sleeper today?  How about Derek Hagan of the Giants?  The Redskins defense is in big trouble.

Speaking of the Redskins, if you want to roll the dice, Ryan Torain is inactive (as expected) you want to play Shanahan roulette with James Davis?

Also out today are Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall, and Pierre ThomasAdrian Peterson is in.

Cheers,
TFAM

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Just thinkin' about tomorrow

I've already got my eye on Cameron Newton in my dynasty draft next year.  He's awfully impressive, and I think he and Andrew Luck are both going to be impact fantasy QBs down the road.  Newton's better than Tim Tebow was, that's for sure.

Anyway, Week 13 is the week of the running back as far as storylines go.  No fewer than 10 NFL teams have running back situations that are a bit muddled at the moment.  I'll be keeping an eye on all ten tomorrow.  In no particular order...

Dallas loses Marion Barber, so what does that do for Tashard Choice?

Washington is permaflux capacitor this point, but Ryan Torain is a game time decision, and James Davis has been creeping up the depth chart.  This one week after we thought Keiland Williams was an emerging talent.

San Diego has the ever injured Ryan Mathews and the newly dinged Mike Tolbert.  I like Mathews if Tolbert doesn't go and it's a great matchup, but I can't LOVE a guy with that ankle situation.

Adrian Peterson looks like a go for Minnesota, and you have to play him, let's just hope he makes it through the game.  Gerhart is incidentlally a great start if AP sits.

Is Pierre Thomas coming back for New Orleans?  I'll believe it when I see it.  Has Reggie Bush recovered from that tryptophan coma he was in 10 days ago?

What will be the distribution between Westbrook and Dixon in the San Francisco backfield?

Jacobs, Bradsahw, Bradsahw, Jacobs.  Neither?  Both?  I say both.  It's the Redskins!  Flex plays.

Do we really have to pay attention to Maurice Morris?

I think Mike Hart is your guy in the Indy backfield, and he could be really interesting down the stretch.  Careful though, it's a late game and Hart is questionable.

I think this is the week that Jon Stewart emerges over Mike Goodson in the Pathers backfield.  Stewart was huge in the fantasy playoffs last year, BTW.

That's ten.  My favorite non RB storyline of the week?  The continuing emergence of Rams WR Danario Alexander.

Cheers,
TFAM

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Sneaky Pickups

A couple weeks back, I wrote in this space that you'd be better of handcuffing your stud RBs than taking chances on some flier running backs.  Well, Frank Gore owners may have done that, and they are still upset with me today.  Why?  It's Brian Westbrook that everyone wants, not Anthony Dixon, on the heels of Westbrook's breakout performance Monday night in Arizona.

Is Westbrook really the guy you want in the San Francisco backfield?

Maybe not.  First, Anthony Dixon did score as well in the game, and he's got the build to be used at the goal line, making it likely he'll fill that role.  On top of that, the 49ers have come out and said (and it makes sense) that they cannot expect Westbrook to handle a 23 carry workload every week.  Now, the news today is that Westy missed practice with an ankle injury.

So, what to make of all of this?

I think Westbrook will go Sunday, but he is unlikely to hold up to a large workload, being that it's something he couldn't do in his younger days in Philly.  I'd expect a 60/40 breakdown in carries with Westbrook/Dixon, with Westbrook handling third down and Dixon getting the stripe.  Basically, that means they each have roughly the same value, which is going to be about half of the value that Gore had in this offense as Frank was used in all the aforementioned roles.  Still, with a home game against Seattle coming up in what could be a pivotal Week 14 game for your squad, these guys do have value.

Outside of the Bay Area, there are other guys to look at as well.

I mentioned Kerry Collins last week and still think he's a good add in two QB leagues.

Obviously I think Danario Alexander should be owned.  Ben Obamanu too.

James Davis is worth a flier if you have the roster space.  Who knows what will transpire in Washington, but we've seen randon Shanahan guys tilt the balance in playoff matchups before.

Finally, Mike Hart appears to be on his way back in Indy, and I could see him being the most valuable back for that team the rest of the way.  The time to add him is upon us.

Cheers,
TFAM