I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Mike Napoli may be a good add, mainly because he wasn't as bad as he had been for the first six weeks of the season, and because playing time siphon Jeff Mathis had gone down with an injury.
Well, Mike Napoli apparently wants me to look good.
After going 3-for-3 with a jack (and a steal!) on Monday, Nap has connected six times in his lat 12 games. More important, he's playing nearly every day behind the plate, and he even filled in at first for the tragically yet comically injured Kendry Morales.
Napoli has always had the power, as his 40 HR in 2008-09 in just over 600 ABs would clearly indicate. If he continues getting the playing time at catcher and first he has been getting for the last three weeks, he is actaully a great guy to target in a deal. Try and catch an owner who thinks he's selling high, then reap the benefits.
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, May 31, 2010
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Analyzing the dried paint
"I know everything there is to know about the greatest game ever invented."
I suspect many of you may think that's an egotistical staement referring to my knowledge and success in the world of fantasy baseball, but it's actually referring to basketball, and was spoken by Wilbur "Shooter" Flatch. RIP Shooter.
It's time for a grab bag of Sunday thoughts as I come back from some time away. I suspect you're having a Memorial Day weekend better than David Huff, but slightly worse than Roy Halladay. What has happened over the past few days that's fantasy relevant?
Buster Posey has been called up by the Giants. He promptly went 3-for-4 last night in his 2010 debut, and was playing first base. It's an interesting development that he's at first, as he's a catcher by trade. If the plan is for him to split time between catcher and first, or play first all the time, you want him, now. He's been a .900+ OPS guy his whole careeer in the minors and was batting .349 down there this season. If he is only going to be a part time guy, his bat probably isn't good enough in limited at bats to help right now. The next few days should be telling. If he does get time at catcher, Bengie Molina, the anti Posey with his .691 OPS, is probably droppable.
Staying with the younger guys, the June 1-June 15 window is when many sharps think we'll see guys like Carlos Santana, Mike Stanton, and Stephen Strasburg called up. It's a service time thing, but if you have room to stash guys, now would be the time on these three. It would be wise to monitor the minor league call ups for the next two weeks.
In Oakland, Brett Anderson returned from his DL stint over the weekend and threw 5+ scoreless innings. Anderson is a great option for the rest of the season given good health.
Also, Anderson's teammate Trevor Cahill, once thought by some to be the better of the two prospects, has quietly put together a nice little season. After another solid performance in Baltimore this week Cahill is 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His K/9 is too low for my tastes right now, but he's interesting.
It appears as if John Axford is the new closer in Milwaukee.
CJ Wilson finished with 5 ER in the box score, but he was better than that. The Twins had one hit yesterday through five innings.
Interesting statistical note, the Brewers have the NL leader in average, home runs and RBI on their team. Three different guys hold thpse positions, and none of them are Prince Fielder. Braun (.325), Hart (12), and McGehee (41) are currently holding down those posts.
Another day another 1-0 loss for Zack Greinke. He's 1-6 and remains a great buy low candidate if his owners are growing tired of his W-L record. Not sure if Betancourt played a crucial role in the run scoring...can we assume?
Cheers,
TFAM
I suspect many of you may think that's an egotistical staement referring to my knowledge and success in the world of fantasy baseball, but it's actually referring to basketball, and was spoken by Wilbur "Shooter" Flatch. RIP Shooter.
It's time for a grab bag of Sunday thoughts as I come back from some time away. I suspect you're having a Memorial Day weekend better than David Huff, but slightly worse than Roy Halladay. What has happened over the past few days that's fantasy relevant?
Buster Posey has been called up by the Giants. He promptly went 3-for-4 last night in his 2010 debut, and was playing first base. It's an interesting development that he's at first, as he's a catcher by trade. If the plan is for him to split time between catcher and first, or play first all the time, you want him, now. He's been a .900+ OPS guy his whole careeer in the minors and was batting .349 down there this season. If he is only going to be a part time guy, his bat probably isn't good enough in limited at bats to help right now. The next few days should be telling. If he does get time at catcher, Bengie Molina, the anti Posey with his .691 OPS, is probably droppable.
Staying with the younger guys, the June 1-June 15 window is when many sharps think we'll see guys like Carlos Santana, Mike Stanton, and Stephen Strasburg called up. It's a service time thing, but if you have room to stash guys, now would be the time on these three. It would be wise to monitor the minor league call ups for the next two weeks.
In Oakland, Brett Anderson returned from his DL stint over the weekend and threw 5+ scoreless innings. Anderson is a great option for the rest of the season given good health.
Also, Anderson's teammate Trevor Cahill, once thought by some to be the better of the two prospects, has quietly put together a nice little season. After another solid performance in Baltimore this week Cahill is 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His K/9 is too low for my tastes right now, but he's interesting.
It appears as if John Axford is the new closer in Milwaukee.
CJ Wilson finished with 5 ER in the box score, but he was better than that. The Twins had one hit yesterday through five innings.
Interesting statistical note, the Brewers have the NL leader in average, home runs and RBI on their team. Three different guys hold thpse positions, and none of them are Prince Fielder. Braun (.325), Hart (12), and McGehee (41) are currently holding down those posts.
Another day another 1-0 loss for Zack Greinke. He's 1-6 and remains a great buy low candidate if his owners are growing tired of his W-L record. Not sure if Betancourt played a crucial role in the run scoring...can we assume?
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Colonial
Lots of good options this week at Colonial, where the field is much deeper than the Nelson from last week which was contested just across the metroplex. Let's get right to it.
Phil is playing this week, and, although Colonial can favor the short knockers due to its lack of length, he's the favorite. He's won twice here and finished in a tie for second. Everyone else is chasing the soon-to-be world #1. Four of his chasers are also ranked in the top 10 in the world, as Steve Stricker (the defender), Paul Casey, Ian Poulter and Jim Furyk are all in Ft. Worth. Furyk has been his usual self here, with two seconds and six top 10s in 14 tries. Stricker would be a great pick, but I'm a little worried about the lingering injury. This week should tell us a story in that regard. Both englishmen player Colonial last year...Casey finished fifth, Poulter eighth.
As I said earlier, it's a deep field, and plenty of guys outside the top 10 can win here. Tim Clark finished second last year and is coming off his payoff win. Steve Marino lost in the playoff last year too. Ben Crane has two top 10s in a row and has played well here too. Brian Gay has also played well here and showed well in Dallas last week with a top five. Among others who are playing well...O'Hair, Kuchar, Choi, Glover, Jacobsen and last week's winner Jason Day.
I'm pretty sure I named the winner in there somewhere. Or not. Seriously...lots of options this week.
Most Talent
Mickelson
Poulter
Casey
Stricker
Furyk
Course History
Mickelson
Stricker
Clark
Furyk
Sabbatini
Who's Hot
Mickelson
Clark
Day
Crane
Van Pelt
Who's Not
Singh
Leonard
Toms
Snedeker
Ogilvy
My Picks
Mickelson
Clark
Poulter
Gay
O'Hair
Cheers,
TFAM
Phil is playing this week, and, although Colonial can favor the short knockers due to its lack of length, he's the favorite. He's won twice here and finished in a tie for second. Everyone else is chasing the soon-to-be world #1. Four of his chasers are also ranked in the top 10 in the world, as Steve Stricker (the defender), Paul Casey, Ian Poulter and Jim Furyk are all in Ft. Worth. Furyk has been his usual self here, with two seconds and six top 10s in 14 tries. Stricker would be a great pick, but I'm a little worried about the lingering injury. This week should tell us a story in that regard. Both englishmen player Colonial last year...Casey finished fifth, Poulter eighth.
As I said earlier, it's a deep field, and plenty of guys outside the top 10 can win here. Tim Clark finished second last year and is coming off his payoff win. Steve Marino lost in the playoff last year too. Ben Crane has two top 10s in a row and has played well here too. Brian Gay has also played well here and showed well in Dallas last week with a top five. Among others who are playing well...O'Hair, Kuchar, Choi, Glover, Jacobsen and last week's winner Jason Day.
I'm pretty sure I named the winner in there somewhere. Or not. Seriously...lots of options this week.
Most Talent
Mickelson
Poulter
Casey
Stricker
Furyk
Course History
Mickelson
Stricker
Clark
Furyk
Sabbatini
Who's Hot
Mickelson
Clark
Day
Crane
Van Pelt
Who's Not
Singh
Leonard
Toms
Snedeker
Ogilvy
My Picks
Mickelson
Clark
Poulter
Gay
O'Hair
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Yunieskyed
Zack Greinke is feeling the pain.
Royals shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt has long been touted by statheads as the worst player in the majors. As a Zack Greinke owner, I concur.
Two separate times this season, including Sunday, Betancourt has contributed to a Greinke meltdown that has cost his owners huge. Earlier in the season, Betancourt dropped a pop up, just dropped it (trust me, it was terrible) with one out. After that, the floodgates opened. Sunday was much worse. Our favorite shortstop tried to underhand a throw to second to start what would have been an easy twin killing, and literally rolled the ball to second. It slipped and rolled...and, it was too late to get the runner. Zack ends up ceding four runs in the inning, seven overall (and they were earned since a double play is not assumed), and his ERA takes a big hit.
Now, Greinke has to take some responsibility for not regaining composure, but his ERA is falsely inflated right now. Of course, the counter would be....well, Betancourt is going to keep screwing his ERA all year then. Yes, yes, you may be right. Still, I believe in talent and skills, and I will not tolerate Greinke being called a second tier starter. He isn't. If his owner wants to bail, I'm buying. He'll come around...let's just hope the shortstop does too.
Cheers (golf tomorrow),
TFAM
Royals shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt has long been touted by statheads as the worst player in the majors. As a Zack Greinke owner, I concur.
Two separate times this season, including Sunday, Betancourt has contributed to a Greinke meltdown that has cost his owners huge. Earlier in the season, Betancourt dropped a pop up, just dropped it (trust me, it was terrible) with one out. After that, the floodgates opened. Sunday was much worse. Our favorite shortstop tried to underhand a throw to second to start what would have been an easy twin killing, and literally rolled the ball to second. It slipped and rolled...and, it was too late to get the runner. Zack ends up ceding four runs in the inning, seven overall (and they were earned since a double play is not assumed), and his ERA takes a big hit.
Now, Greinke has to take some responsibility for not regaining composure, but his ERA is falsely inflated right now. Of course, the counter would be....well, Betancourt is going to keep screwing his ERA all year then. Yes, yes, you may be right. Still, I believe in talent and skills, and I will not tolerate Greinke being called a second tier starter. He isn't. If his owner wants to bail, I'm buying. He'll come around...let's just hope the shortstop does too.
Cheers (golf tomorrow),
TFAM
Sunday, May 23, 2010
As Seen On TV
Random thoughts from watching games and checking stats in the fantasy baseball world...
How far have we come from the steroid era? I'm not saying the game is clean, but we may not have a 40 HR guys this year in the majors. Of the 15 guys who are currently in double digits, only Mark Reynolds, Chase Utley, Andre Ethier (and he's hurt), Dan Uggla, Paul Konerko, Vlad Guerrero, Jose Guillen, and Justin Morneau have even reached 30 in a season. The rest of the guys include a few (Alex Gonzalez, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Jose Bautista) who will be lucky to get to 20. Paging, Mr. Howard, Mr. Ryan Howard. It's time to giddyup.
Jose Contreras, Manny Corpas, and Carlos Villanueva are your new closers du jour. I think all of them have a chance to hold the job for over a month.
Leading the league in stolen base attempts is.....Elvis Andrus, with 24 (17 successful).
It's also worth noting that both Matt Kemp (6-for-14) and Nyjer Morgan (8-for-16) have been caught as much as they have been successful.
Sticking with stolen bases, one guy people thought would run this year was Alcides Escobar in Milwaukee, yet he's just 1-for-2. I attribute this to teams letting young players just try and learn one skill at a time. We know Escobar has the wheels and the glove, the team is probably just trying to keep it simple. Arizona did the same a couple of years ago with Justin Upton, and now he's a 25 steal threat. Escobar will get there next year.
Luke Scott has five homers and 19 hits in his last 11 games.
Adam Jones, also in Baltimore is coming around too. He did have an inside the paker last night, but it was hit well and he has homers in two straight. I smell a hot streak, good time to buy low on him.
That's 12 RBI for Nelson Cruz in his last six games. Gotta love that Ranger lineup.
Good time to get Mike Napoli. He's got three HR in three games and Mathis is hurt, leaving Nap most of the PT.
Milton Bradley is back.
I'm off to watch a full slate this afternoon. I'll report tomorrow.
Cheers,
TFAM
How far have we come from the steroid era? I'm not saying the game is clean, but we may not have a 40 HR guys this year in the majors. Of the 15 guys who are currently in double digits, only Mark Reynolds, Chase Utley, Andre Ethier (and he's hurt), Dan Uggla, Paul Konerko, Vlad Guerrero, Jose Guillen, and Justin Morneau have even reached 30 in a season. The rest of the guys include a few (Alex Gonzalez, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Jose Bautista) who will be lucky to get to 20. Paging, Mr. Howard, Mr. Ryan Howard. It's time to giddyup.
Jose Contreras, Manny Corpas, and Carlos Villanueva are your new closers du jour. I think all of them have a chance to hold the job for over a month.
Leading the league in stolen base attempts is.....Elvis Andrus, with 24 (17 successful).
It's also worth noting that both Matt Kemp (6-for-14) and Nyjer Morgan (8-for-16) have been caught as much as they have been successful.
Sticking with stolen bases, one guy people thought would run this year was Alcides Escobar in Milwaukee, yet he's just 1-for-2. I attribute this to teams letting young players just try and learn one skill at a time. We know Escobar has the wheels and the glove, the team is probably just trying to keep it simple. Arizona did the same a couple of years ago with Justin Upton, and now he's a 25 steal threat. Escobar will get there next year.
Luke Scott has five homers and 19 hits in his last 11 games.
Adam Jones, also in Baltimore is coming around too. He did have an inside the paker last night, but it was hit well and he has homers in two straight. I smell a hot streak, good time to buy low on him.
That's 12 RBI for Nelson Cruz in his last six games. Gotta love that Ranger lineup.
Good time to get Mike Napoli. He's got three HR in three games and Mathis is hurt, leaving Nap most of the PT.
Milton Bradley is back.
I'm off to watch a full slate this afternoon. I'll report tomorrow.
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, May 21, 2010
The Vultures Circle
Two football posts in a row!
Check out this quote from Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, courtesy of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
"I think the critical runs, short-yardage, goal line, have been a problem," Arians said. "They got addressed (in 2008) with Gary Russell. Now is it going to be Rashard? It could be Isaac Redman, it could be by a bunch of guys. Is it a back or is it by committee? This time of year you get your running game going, but in training camp you find out that short-yardage stuff. You win the job that way."
Well, well, well. It appears a guy who seems to be built perfectly for the goal line will need to impress in that area in camp to avoid a vulture situation in Pittsburgh. This is really huge news, as Mendenhall already is going to lose some touches on third downs. If he doesn't get the goal line touches, he goes from borderline first round to borderline third round or later in my book. Stay tuned.
Cheers,
TFAM
Check out this quote from Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, courtesy of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
"I think the critical runs, short-yardage, goal line, have been a problem," Arians said. "They got addressed (in 2008) with Gary Russell. Now is it going to be Rashard? It could be Isaac Redman, it could be by a bunch of guys. Is it a back or is it by committee? This time of year you get your running game going, but in training camp you find out that short-yardage stuff. You win the job that way."
Well, well, well. It appears a guy who seems to be built perfectly for the goal line will need to impress in that area in camp to avoid a vulture situation in Pittsburgh. This is really huge news, as Mendenhall already is going to lose some touches on third downs. If he doesn't get the goal line touches, he goes from borderline first round to borderline third round or later in my book. Stay tuned.
Cheers,
TFAM
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Lightning in a Bottle
Some of my loyal readers have been telling me they are jonesing for a football fix. I keep saying that there will be plenty of time for fantasy football, starting in July, BUT....I'll throw the bone.
I wrote a bit around the time of the draft that whoever San Diego selects at running back will be a major fantasy contributor next year. They have all the components you need to be a very fantasy friendly offense for a running back. They have a great quarterback, a good passing game, an offense that scores a lot, and a system that runs the ball more often than not in short yardage. The only thing missing to be a great rushing attack is a better offensive line. Still, this is a team that led LaDainian Tomlinson to 12 rushing touchdowns last year and almost 900 total yards in 14 games...and Tomlinson was, by many accounts, the worst starting running back in the NFL in 2009.
Enter Ryan Mathews. Yes, all signs point to positive for the Fresno State product, starting with the fact that the Chargers moved up 16 spots in the first round to get this guy. They really like him. Need more proof? Norv Turner was quoted shortly after the draft as saying that Mathews will have 250 carries and 40 catches this season. That's 40 more touches than LT got last year. With his fresh legs and 220 pound frame, I'd say that translates into major fantasy upside. If I had to guess right now, I'd say Mathews falls right in at the end of the top ten running backs in your fantasy draft. I'd take him ahead of guys like Felix Jones, Ryan Grant, Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, and Ronnie Brown.
Last, but not least, let's not forget he gets two games against the Raiders!
Cheers,
TFAM
I wrote a bit around the time of the draft that whoever San Diego selects at running back will be a major fantasy contributor next year. They have all the components you need to be a very fantasy friendly offense for a running back. They have a great quarterback, a good passing game, an offense that scores a lot, and a system that runs the ball more often than not in short yardage. The only thing missing to be a great rushing attack is a better offensive line. Still, this is a team that led LaDainian Tomlinson to 12 rushing touchdowns last year and almost 900 total yards in 14 games...and Tomlinson was, by many accounts, the worst starting running back in the NFL in 2009.
Enter Ryan Mathews. Yes, all signs point to positive for the Fresno State product, starting with the fact that the Chargers moved up 16 spots in the first round to get this guy. They really like him. Need more proof? Norv Turner was quoted shortly after the draft as saying that Mathews will have 250 carries and 40 catches this season. That's 40 more touches than LT got last year. With his fresh legs and 220 pound frame, I'd say that translates into major fantasy upside. If I had to guess right now, I'd say Mathews falls right in at the end of the top ten running backs in your fantasy draft. I'd take him ahead of guys like Felix Jones, Ryan Grant, Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, and Ronnie Brown.
Last, but not least, let's not forget he gets two games against the Raiders!
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Byron Nelson
This week's tournament, the Byron Nelson, has lost a bit of luster since Tiger stopped playing here earlier this decade. As a matter of fact, The Colonial, which is next week across the metroplex in Fort Worth, has begun to draw a consistently better field. Still, the Nelson has a fairly big purse, and is an important part of the Texas swing.
Rory Sabbatini is the defender, and he has a third here as well in the last two years. He's not playing well in 2010 though, so a top 10 would be a bit of an upset. Hunter Mahan is actually the highest ranked player in the field at 17th in the world, but he has never finished higher than 42nd.
So, where does that leave us?
I like Dustin Johnson this week. Johnson tied for fourth here a year ago and is coming off a respectable showing at the Players. I just have a hunch about him. Other than Johnson, it's hard to get too excited about anyone. Charley Hoffman has been playing well (and has two top tens here in the last four years), and I always like Rickie Fowler, but other than that, Stew Cink has been off his game as well, and JB Holmes played a worse front nine than I did on Sunday (though I did hit from the whites).
You want a sleeper? How about Andres Romero? The Argentine has been striking it lately, with a T10 at Sawgrass. Romero hasn't played here before, but it's the best I've got. I guess I also like Ricky Barnes this week. He's had a nice 2010.
Most Talent
D. Johnson
Mahan
Fowler
O'Hair
V. Singh
Course History
Sabbatini
V. Singh
J. Leonard
Hoffman
B. Wetterich
Who's Hot?
R. Barnes
R. Fowler
M. Jones
H. Slocum
JB Holmes
Who's Not?
V. Singh
J. Leonard
S. Cink
R. Sabbatini
K. Perry
My Picks
D. Johnson
C. Hoffman
R. Fowler
R. Barnes
A. Romero
Cheers,
TFAM
Rory Sabbatini is the defender, and he has a third here as well in the last two years. He's not playing well in 2010 though, so a top 10 would be a bit of an upset. Hunter Mahan is actually the highest ranked player in the field at 17th in the world, but he has never finished higher than 42nd.
So, where does that leave us?
I like Dustin Johnson this week. Johnson tied for fourth here a year ago and is coming off a respectable showing at the Players. I just have a hunch about him. Other than Johnson, it's hard to get too excited about anyone. Charley Hoffman has been playing well (and has two top tens here in the last four years), and I always like Rickie Fowler, but other than that, Stew Cink has been off his game as well, and JB Holmes played a worse front nine than I did on Sunday (though I did hit from the whites).
You want a sleeper? How about Andres Romero? The Argentine has been striking it lately, with a T10 at Sawgrass. Romero hasn't played here before, but it's the best I've got. I guess I also like Ricky Barnes this week. He's had a nice 2010.
Most Talent
D. Johnson
Mahan
Fowler
O'Hair
V. Singh
Course History
Sabbatini
V. Singh
J. Leonard
Hoffman
B. Wetterich
Who's Hot?
R. Barnes
R. Fowler
M. Jones
H. Slocum
JB Holmes
Who's Not?
V. Singh
J. Leonard
S. Cink
R. Sabbatini
K. Perry
My Picks
D. Johnson
C. Hoffman
R. Fowler
R. Barnes
A. Romero
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, May 17, 2010
A Simple Trading Philosophy
It's called the 2-for-1, and it will work out better for you than simialr offers pitched by Vince Offer.
The strategy is simple, and it works in all fantasy sports, particularly in shallow 10 or even eight team leagues. In many leagues, there are guys on the waiver wire that can help your squad. Most times, owners look at guys they want to add, but can't justify doing so becuase they don't have the roster space. Enter the 2-for-1. Target one player on another team that's slightly better than each of two different guys you will offer him. For him, he gets two guys that are alomst as good as the one he's giving up. For you, you get the real prize of the deal, and you can add the guy you want off waivers, which will likely tilt the deal in your favor. Do this two or three times, and you have a lineup packed with enough high end talent to make you very tough to beat, and you free up roster space to take gambles on guys who are riding hot streaks.
It's very simple, but many owners don;t try to employ the 2-for-1. Just last month a buddy of mine was trying to figure out a way to add Paul Konerko as a free agent. You think the 2-for-1 would have worked out well for him? Let's say he offered David Price and Billy Butler for Mark Teixeira. When he gets Konerko in the deal too, it looks a lot better. Then he can do the same sort of two for one and add an ace pitcher to replace Price.
Cheers,
TFAM
The strategy is simple, and it works in all fantasy sports, particularly in shallow 10 or even eight team leagues. In many leagues, there are guys on the waiver wire that can help your squad. Most times, owners look at guys they want to add, but can't justify doing so becuase they don't have the roster space. Enter the 2-for-1. Target one player on another team that's slightly better than each of two different guys you will offer him. For him, he gets two guys that are alomst as good as the one he's giving up. For you, you get the real prize of the deal, and you can add the guy you want off waivers, which will likely tilt the deal in your favor. Do this two or three times, and you have a lineup packed with enough high end talent to make you very tough to beat, and you free up roster space to take gambles on guys who are riding hot streaks.
It's very simple, but many owners don;t try to employ the 2-for-1. Just last month a buddy of mine was trying to figure out a way to add Paul Konerko as a free agent. You think the 2-for-1 would have worked out well for him? Let's say he offered David Price and Billy Butler for Mark Teixeira. When he gets Konerko in the deal too, it looks a lot better. Then he can do the same sort of two for one and add an ace pitcher to replace Price.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, May 16, 2010
MarKeT MadNEsS
I probably should have posted this column on Thursday and littered it with Twins in the sell high section, and Yankees in the buy low section. After all, the evil empire is in the process of making it 13 straight over the Twins in New York...so this weekend was easy to see coming.
One more big dump trade in my dynasty league this week. That's two teams who have waived the flag, which leaves 10 in competition for the title. It feels a little like Survivor, as I'm sure one more will gett booted off the island this week.
Sell High
David Price, SP , Rays
I say this with a bit of sorrow, as Price is doing his best Johan impersonation in Tampa this year with an ERA close to two and a WHIP close to one. I have him on one of my teams, and it's really hard to deal a guy when he's rolling, but Price has been fortunate thus far with all those stat geek numbers I'm not going to get into. He is going to start giving up more runs, and if I could deal him for a top tier starter, I would.
Jamie Garcia, SP, Cardinals
If you were lucky enough to add Garcia at the right time, he has been a tremendous gift providing wins, great totals and enough K's to be very relevant. Still, it's Jaime Garcia, and, while he was a legit prospect, he wasn't thought of as a future ace. When the league sees him again his numbers will go up. Turn him into something else to capitalize on the gift that keeps on giving approach.
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays
If I keep saying it, he will start to go the way of his old cut and fade. He has to!
Buy Low
Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays
A Ray starts off the buy low section as well, and now is a great time to target Pena, who has started very slow in the past. I recall a time two years ago when he was dropped in late May. I added him in early June and he was one of my best players for the rest of the year. He's in a contract year too.
Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox
If you're in need of power, throw a lowball offer to Quentin's owner. The balls fly out of the Cell (or whatever it may be called in 2010) in the summer and Quentin has too much pop not to get hot. I still see 25-30 bombs, and he can hit .275 from here on out. His bad month won't hurt you if you can get him now. Don't pay full price, but his owners HAVE to be a little impatient, don't they?
Victor Martinez, C, Red Sox
I'm not huge into catchers (unless you start two), but I have to think Victor and his .220 batting average with three homers presents a buying opportunity. Everyone is bashing the Red Sox for their current ineptitude, but they are still a top 10 offense. The runs will come and Victor is going to hit in the middle of that lineup. He's a .296 career hitter, so, the hot streak is coming.
Cheers,
TFAM
One more big dump trade in my dynasty league this week. That's two teams who have waived the flag, which leaves 10 in competition for the title. It feels a little like Survivor, as I'm sure one more will gett booted off the island this week.
Sell High
David Price, SP , Rays
I say this with a bit of sorrow, as Price is doing his best Johan impersonation in Tampa this year with an ERA close to two and a WHIP close to one. I have him on one of my teams, and it's really hard to deal a guy when he's rolling, but Price has been fortunate thus far with all those stat geek numbers I'm not going to get into. He is going to start giving up more runs, and if I could deal him for a top tier starter, I would.
Jamie Garcia, SP, Cardinals
If you were lucky enough to add Garcia at the right time, he has been a tremendous gift providing wins, great totals and enough K's to be very relevant. Still, it's Jaime Garcia, and, while he was a legit prospect, he wasn't thought of as a future ace. When the league sees him again his numbers will go up. Turn him into something else to capitalize on the gift that keeps on giving approach.
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays
If I keep saying it, he will start to go the way of his old cut and fade. He has to!
Buy Low
Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays
A Ray starts off the buy low section as well, and now is a great time to target Pena, who has started very slow in the past. I recall a time two years ago when he was dropped in late May. I added him in early June and he was one of my best players for the rest of the year. He's in a contract year too.
Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox
If you're in need of power, throw a lowball offer to Quentin's owner. The balls fly out of the Cell (or whatever it may be called in 2010) in the summer and Quentin has too much pop not to get hot. I still see 25-30 bombs, and he can hit .275 from here on out. His bad month won't hurt you if you can get him now. Don't pay full price, but his owners HAVE to be a little impatient, don't they?
Victor Martinez, C, Red Sox
I'm not huge into catchers (unless you start two), but I have to think Victor and his .220 batting average with three homers presents a buying opportunity. Everyone is bashing the Red Sox for their current ineptitude, but they are still a top 10 offense. The runs will come and Victor is going to hit in the middle of that lineup. He's a .296 career hitter, so, the hot streak is coming.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Srixon
So, as I was golfing today with my father-in-law I noticed that he was playing a Srixon golf ball. As he procedded to go six down to me (we play match play) through ten, I told him that maybe the Srixon wasn't the best choice for his game. After all, the poster boys for Srixon, Jim Furyk, Robert Allenby, Vijay Singh, Tim Clark, and Boo Weekley haven't excactly elevated their play since the switch to that product. The last month and a half non withstanding, those golfers had probably been THE most ridiculed players on tour for two years due to their inability to find the winner's circle. Now, Furyk has turned it around a bit and Clark (finally) won last week, so this column probably comes a couple months too late. Still, it's worth noting that my pop immediately took three holes in a row from me when he swicthed to "the cat" (Slazenger).
Maybe Westwood accidently put Allenby's Srixon in play for his last five holes at the Players.
The moral? I'm taking a Srixon free approach to fantasy golf for the remainder of 2010.
Cheers,
TFAM
Maybe Westwood accidently put Allenby's Srixon in play for his last five holes at the Players.
The moral? I'm taking a Srixon free approach to fantasy golf for the remainder of 2010.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Valero Texas Open
Apparently many of the Tour players are as unfamiliar with Valero as I am, as the field for this week's event outside of San Antonio is the worst I've seen since the youth hockey fundraiser scramble I played in at Deer Run last August. Combine that with the fact that a new course is in play this year, and we really are just throwing darts this week trying to find a winner.
The only big name who's in Texas this week and has played well in 2010 is Ernie Els, which probably makes him the favorite. The new course is over 7500 yards, so Ernie's length should help. He just hasn't found a groove since the Palmer though, and I don't really see him holding the trophy this week.
After Ernie, the highest ranked player in the field is Sergio Garcia (who apparently helped Greg Norman design the track), buit Sergio has been uninspiring for months.
Where does that leave us? With no course histroy, I'm looking at guys who can drive the ball and are playing well. That brings us directly to two names...Bo Van Pelt and JB Holmes. Van Pelt is coming off three straight top fives, Holmes has three top tens and three more top 20 finishes on the year. Both are long and both should be at the top of your list this week.
Zach Johnson has won this event two years in a row, and he played well last week, but the course is different, so I can't really count the two wins. Adam Scott is here and has been playing better, but, Adam Scott has been a letdown for two straight years.
Sleeper picks include the entire field, as they're all sleepers after Ernie.
Most Talent
Els
Garcia
V. Singh
Scott
Duval?
Course History
N/A
Who's Hot?
Van Pelt
Els
Holmes
Hoffman
Jacobsen
Who's Not?
Garcia
Singh
Mediate
Leonard
Duval
My Picks
Holmes
Van Pelt
Els
Jacobsen
Merritt
Cheers,
TFAM
The only big name who's in Texas this week and has played well in 2010 is Ernie Els, which probably makes him the favorite. The new course is over 7500 yards, so Ernie's length should help. He just hasn't found a groove since the Palmer though, and I don't really see him holding the trophy this week.
After Ernie, the highest ranked player in the field is Sergio Garcia (who apparently helped Greg Norman design the track), buit Sergio has been uninspiring for months.
Where does that leave us? With no course histroy, I'm looking at guys who can drive the ball and are playing well. That brings us directly to two names...Bo Van Pelt and JB Holmes. Van Pelt is coming off three straight top fives, Holmes has three top tens and three more top 20 finishes on the year. Both are long and both should be at the top of your list this week.
Zach Johnson has won this event two years in a row, and he played well last week, but the course is different, so I can't really count the two wins. Adam Scott is here and has been playing better, but, Adam Scott has been a letdown for two straight years.
Sleeper picks include the entire field, as they're all sleepers after Ernie.
Most Talent
Els
Garcia
V. Singh
Scott
Duval?
Course History
N/A
Who's Hot?
Van Pelt
Els
Holmes
Hoffman
Jacobsen
Who's Not?
Garcia
Singh
Mediate
Leonard
Duval
My Picks
Holmes
Van Pelt
Els
Jacobsen
Merritt
Cheers,
TFAM
Monday, May 10, 2010
Prospect Proclamations
With the promotion of Starlin Castro and Derek Holland to the show in just the last few days, we are reminded that the top talent on the farm is going to start hitting the bigs in the next month or two. Who is most likely to make an impact in 2010?
Stephen Strasburg continues to dominate, as he gave up just one hit in his first AAA start. Buster Olney thinks June 8 or so for his arrival to the show.
Brett Wallace is the hottest high profile bat next to Mike Stanton. Wallace is not supposed to have the pop to match some of the other minor league mashers, but he has 10 homers in 122 at bats. Lyle Overbay can't hold him off for much longer.
Stanton, BTW? Fourteen HR, 1.317 OPS. Ruthian.
Carlos Santana has slowed a bit, but still is sporting a .972 OPS. He'll be up in June. While we're on catchers, the Giants continue to say Buster Posey isn't ready, but his numbers say otherwise. Posey has a .994 OPS at Triple-A.
If you're looking for speed, Jose Tabata of the Pirates has 16 steals in 18 attempts. He could see time before the end of the year and has a bit of pop to go with the wheels.
Finally, Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman remain the two arms most likely to make a 2010 impact. Both are right around a strikeout per inning and should be in the bigs this summer. I like both a lot...Chapman has slightly more K potential and plays in the NL, Hellickson is more refined right now but will pitch in the AL East. It's really a toss up between them.
Cheers,
TFAM
Stephen Strasburg continues to dominate, as he gave up just one hit in his first AAA start. Buster Olney thinks June 8 or so for his arrival to the show.
Brett Wallace is the hottest high profile bat next to Mike Stanton. Wallace is not supposed to have the pop to match some of the other minor league mashers, but he has 10 homers in 122 at bats. Lyle Overbay can't hold him off for much longer.
Stanton, BTW? Fourteen HR, 1.317 OPS. Ruthian.
Carlos Santana has slowed a bit, but still is sporting a .972 OPS. He'll be up in June. While we're on catchers, the Giants continue to say Buster Posey isn't ready, but his numbers say otherwise. Posey has a .994 OPS at Triple-A.
If you're looking for speed, Jose Tabata of the Pirates has 16 steals in 18 attempts. He could see time before the end of the year and has a bit of pop to go with the wheels.
Finally, Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman remain the two arms most likely to make a 2010 impact. Both are right around a strikeout per inning and should be in the bigs this summer. I like both a lot...Chapman has slightly more K potential and plays in the NL, Hellickson is more refined right now but will pitch in the AL East. It's really a toss up between them.
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, May 9, 2010
No Turning Back
Tomorrow, we celebrate post number 200 in just eight months sicne going live in September.
Today, we celebrate the fact that fantasy sports has become a locomotive that cannot be stopped.
Fantasy insurance.
And next year when one of my buddies angrily rants about Adam Jones as he did the other day (and anger may not be strong enough...he was 50/50 on getting booted from Target Field and threatening to throw used batteries at the Oriole centerfielder), what I"ll be able to say is ... "See, I told you that guy was worth the insurance". Unbelieveable...
Seriously, next year I'd bet a dollar to a donut they will insure for underproduction as well as injuries.
Only in America.
Cheers,
TFAM
Today, we celebrate the fact that fantasy sports has become a locomotive that cannot be stopped.
Fantasy insurance.
And next year when one of my buddies angrily rants about Adam Jones as he did the other day (and anger may not be strong enough...he was 50/50 on getting booted from Target Field and threatening to throw used batteries at the Oriole centerfielder), what I"ll be able to say is ... "See, I told you that guy was worth the insurance". Unbelieveable...
Seriously, next year I'd bet a dollar to a donut they will insure for underproduction as well as injuries.
Only in America.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, May 8, 2010
As Seen on TV
I got the full six TV experience over at my friends place last night, six TVs, nine different games over the course of the night, plenty to write about that I actually did see on TV, plus a few thoughts from the past days.
Thought #1: Lee Westwood would do me a huge favor if he hung on this time around.
I'll repeat my Starlin Castro stance in the wake of his startling effort last night. He is addable in one year leagues, but he isn't going to be much better than replacement level for the rest of 2010. Keeper leagues are a different story, of course. I'd try and sell him right now if someone is buying in a redraft.
Castro, by the way, looks every bit of 20. He's not 150 pounds in a wet towel.
Phil Hughes is legit. He's got a full arsenal of plus pitches, which keeps hitters off his arrow-straight fastball. I think he posts an ERA lower than 3.50 this year with a 2/1 win/loss ratio and 9 K/9.
Zack Greinke wasn't bad, even though his best stuff didn't show up in Texas last night. The first three runs were errors, bloops and dribblers. At 0-4, you aren't going to get a better deal on Greinke than right now.
Gio Gonzalez has quietly entered into the mixed league conversation. Another quality start last night in a loss to David Price has me very intrigued. He has the K's (34 in 35 IP), he just needs to keep down the walks.
JD Drew is swinging it right now. It didn't look like Hughes could get him out last night. When he's this locked in he can go three weeks being the best player in the league.
Andy LaRoche is playing like he has Pedro Alvarez on his fantasy squad. He makes some stupid plays, and if you saw him get tagged out in the eighth last night, you hear me.
Anyone notice Scott Hairston has four homers in his last seven games?
And Rod Barajas has six in his last seven?
Felix Hernandez was getting squeezed badly by the ump in the first innings last night. Then, it was all on him. He got frustrated and lost his edge. Should just be a one game blip though. No worries on Felix, like Greinke.
However, the Mariners, A's, Royals are all running out lineups that are of the Triple-A variety right now. Of those three teams, they only have two players that could crack the Yankee lineup, Butler and Ichiro. Think about that. From a fantasy angle, how many runs and RBI can you get from players in those lineups?
Cheers,
TFAM
Thought #1: Lee Westwood would do me a huge favor if he hung on this time around.
I'll repeat my Starlin Castro stance in the wake of his startling effort last night. He is addable in one year leagues, but he isn't going to be much better than replacement level for the rest of 2010. Keeper leagues are a different story, of course. I'd try and sell him right now if someone is buying in a redraft.
Castro, by the way, looks every bit of 20. He's not 150 pounds in a wet towel.
Phil Hughes is legit. He's got a full arsenal of plus pitches, which keeps hitters off his arrow-straight fastball. I think he posts an ERA lower than 3.50 this year with a 2/1 win/loss ratio and 9 K/9.
Zack Greinke wasn't bad, even though his best stuff didn't show up in Texas last night. The first three runs were errors, bloops and dribblers. At 0-4, you aren't going to get a better deal on Greinke than right now.
Gio Gonzalez has quietly entered into the mixed league conversation. Another quality start last night in a loss to David Price has me very intrigued. He has the K's (34 in 35 IP), he just needs to keep down the walks.
JD Drew is swinging it right now. It didn't look like Hughes could get him out last night. When he's this locked in he can go three weeks being the best player in the league.
Andy LaRoche is playing like he has Pedro Alvarez on his fantasy squad. He makes some stupid plays, and if you saw him get tagged out in the eighth last night, you hear me.
Anyone notice Scott Hairston has four homers in his last seven games?
And Rod Barajas has six in his last seven?
Felix Hernandez was getting squeezed badly by the ump in the first innings last night. Then, it was all on him. He got frustrated and lost his edge. Should just be a one game blip though. No worries on Felix, like Greinke.
However, the Mariners, A's, Royals are all running out lineups that are of the Triple-A variety right now. Of those three teams, they only have two players that could crack the Yankee lineup, Butler and Ichiro. Think about that. From a fantasy angle, how many runs and RBI can you get from players in those lineups?
Cheers,
TFAM
Friday, May 7, 2010
Starlin Castro
In case you missed the news, Starlin Castro has been beckoned to the north side of Chicago, and has been given the keys to the car that is the Cubs infield immediately. Ryan Theriot will move to second base to accomodate Castro, who makes the move as 20-year-old coming straight from AA.
The question becomes, can Castro help your fantasy squad? The answer? Maybe.
Castro will not hit .370, like he has done for a month in the minors this year. He doesn't take a ton of walks and big league pitchers are going to test his strike zone judgment early and often. He does have speed, but isn't a blazer like Eric Young or Desmond Jennings. In AA he had four steals and was caught five times. A year ago, his ratio was 28/11, not great, not terrible. Also, Castro has just nine homers in over 1000 career minor league plate appearances, so don't expect the power to come in 2010.
So, how can Castro help? Two ways. He's a legit prospect, universally lauded by scouts this offseason, so, if you play keeper ball, you want him ASAP. If you are in a redraft league, Castro can help, but only as an Ian Desmond type. In other words, go ahead and pick him up, as there's always something better about cheering for a hyped prospect than a Edgar Renteria. Just don't expect that Starlin is going to be any better than the next guy you can pick up on the wire in a mixed league. In an NL only, he's a must add right away, merely due to the volume of ABs that are going to come his way.
Cheers,
TFAM
The question becomes, can Castro help your fantasy squad? The answer? Maybe.
Castro will not hit .370, like he has done for a month in the minors this year. He doesn't take a ton of walks and big league pitchers are going to test his strike zone judgment early and often. He does have speed, but isn't a blazer like Eric Young or Desmond Jennings. In AA he had four steals and was caught five times. A year ago, his ratio was 28/11, not great, not terrible. Also, Castro has just nine homers in over 1000 career minor league plate appearances, so don't expect the power to come in 2010.
So, how can Castro help? Two ways. He's a legit prospect, universally lauded by scouts this offseason, so, if you play keeper ball, you want him ASAP. If you are in a redraft league, Castro can help, but only as an Ian Desmond type. In other words, go ahead and pick him up, as there's always something better about cheering for a hyped prospect than a Edgar Renteria. Just don't expect that Starlin is going to be any better than the next guy you can pick up on the wire in a mixed league. In an NL only, he's a must add right away, merely due to the volume of ABs that are going to come his way.
Cheers,
TFAM
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Keeper Leagues: When to waive the flag
As I wrote last week, now is the time where deals are going to start to be available in all leagues due to owners assessing team needs and player value fluctuations early in the season. Sure enough, we have a blockbuster to report from one of my two keeper leagues, and it has been a bit controversial.
Team A received: Mike Stanton (14), Rafael Soriano (21), filler
Team B received: Carl Crawford (NK), Joakim Soria (2), Aramis Ramirez (UK), Stephen Drew (1), Simon Castro (26)
I should explain that this league is a draft league, and players move up four rounds from where they were drafted. The rounds that they can be kept in next year are in parenthesis. Players drafted in the first four rounds cannot be kept, and have a (NK) designation next to thier name.
As you can probably guess, the controversy begins with the question of the volume of value returned to Team A for giving up on four potential difference making players. The second, and more relevant question for this space, is that of the timing of waiving the white flag on a fantasy season.
For question one, no, it isn't enough value. But, all it takes is one guy to think Stanton is Babe Ruth (and he's acting like him in AA) to make a deal, so he went after the player with the highest impact who was available with the quality over quantity theory. I would argue that Stanton is certainly no guarantee to even ever reach the status of a top 10 keeper player in the league, especially when his round is already accelerated to 14. Having said that, if no one is going to make keepers 1-10 available, isn't it prudent to get the best guy you can?
For question number two, knowing when to say uncle is always a hugely important call outside of your family reunion. Player A had a good team, we aren't talking a squad destined to finish in the bottom half of the 12 team league. He had good keepers and a shot to contend this year if everything broke right. What he didn't have is one of the top two teams in the league. On paper, he couldn't beat either of the top two squads out...but, leagues aren't played on paper, so he did have a chance. Would you mortgage your future and go for it every year even if you don;t have a great chance or would you backpedal on year to be more competitive for a longer timeframe?
I get both sides. It certainly didn't help the league that a lopsided deal was made. And, now that Team A is out, how many will follow that lead? Are we just going to end up with 4-5 teams trying to win and 7-8 trading all their stars for pennies on the dollar? If that does happen, Team A probably got a good deal. You think good deals are going to be available for dumping teams in July when the market is flooded with non keepable stars and only a few teams are buying? Me either.
Which leads me to say that, in my opinion, the minute you think you can't win a keeper league you have to get out. You want to be the first to get into the market to get the deals you won't be able to make later when there is too much selling and not enough buying. Really, it's simple supply and demand in play here. Two years ago, my team was the first to sell off players (and we had ZERO chance of winning due to previous ownerships depletion of the system in a championship effort the year before), we restocked very well, and are now viable for years to come.
So, the point? It's never too early to waive the flag if you know you can't win. You have to move if you can't compete. If you make a mistake by selling off all your prospects to go for it and come up short, you are in a much worse position in the future. Sell early, and get the best deal you possibly can. Team A did both.
Cheers,
TFAM
Team A received: Mike Stanton (14), Rafael Soriano (21), filler
Team B received: Carl Crawford (NK), Joakim Soria (2), Aramis Ramirez (UK), Stephen Drew (1), Simon Castro (26)
I should explain that this league is a draft league, and players move up four rounds from where they were drafted. The rounds that they can be kept in next year are in parenthesis. Players drafted in the first four rounds cannot be kept, and have a (NK) designation next to thier name.
As you can probably guess, the controversy begins with the question of the volume of value returned to Team A for giving up on four potential difference making players. The second, and more relevant question for this space, is that of the timing of waiving the white flag on a fantasy season.
For question one, no, it isn't enough value. But, all it takes is one guy to think Stanton is Babe Ruth (and he's acting like him in AA) to make a deal, so he went after the player with the highest impact who was available with the quality over quantity theory. I would argue that Stanton is certainly no guarantee to even ever reach the status of a top 10 keeper player in the league, especially when his round is already accelerated to 14. Having said that, if no one is going to make keepers 1-10 available, isn't it prudent to get the best guy you can?
For question number two, knowing when to say uncle is always a hugely important call outside of your family reunion. Player A had a good team, we aren't talking a squad destined to finish in the bottom half of the 12 team league. He had good keepers and a shot to contend this year if everything broke right. What he didn't have is one of the top two teams in the league. On paper, he couldn't beat either of the top two squads out...but, leagues aren't played on paper, so he did have a chance. Would you mortgage your future and go for it every year even if you don;t have a great chance or would you backpedal on year to be more competitive for a longer timeframe?
I get both sides. It certainly didn't help the league that a lopsided deal was made. And, now that Team A is out, how many will follow that lead? Are we just going to end up with 4-5 teams trying to win and 7-8 trading all their stars for pennies on the dollar? If that does happen, Team A probably got a good deal. You think good deals are going to be available for dumping teams in July when the market is flooded with non keepable stars and only a few teams are buying? Me either.
Which leads me to say that, in my opinion, the minute you think you can't win a keeper league you have to get out. You want to be the first to get into the market to get the deals you won't be able to make later when there is too much selling and not enough buying. Really, it's simple supply and demand in play here. Two years ago, my team was the first to sell off players (and we had ZERO chance of winning due to previous ownerships depletion of the system in a championship effort the year before), we restocked very well, and are now viable for years to come.
So, the point? It's never too early to waive the flag if you know you can't win. You have to move if you can't compete. If you make a mistake by selling off all your prospects to go for it and come up short, you are in a much worse position in the future. Sell early, and get the best deal you possibly can. Team A did both.
Cheers,
TFAM
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
The Players Championship
Nice 62 by Rory last week in Charoltte, enough (my wife tells me) to best the course record by two. I couldn't watch, as I was out of town, but it sounded pretty impressive. Also impressive, and noted, is that my wife watches golf without me but won't give it a second when I am around. Women.
Anyway, she also said it's McIlroy's 21st birthday this week, but I'm thinking that since he's a Brit that there wasn't any excessive partying and that he'ss be ready to go for Sawgrass. He's actually one of the top picks this week, as the 62 has to give him loads of confidence, and his back seems to be fine.
Of all the events Tiger plays, this one is the last I'd pick him to win. He has done it, but just once in 12 tries, and he's top 10'd just four times here, so it isn;t his best venue. Phil has played the course better recently, and has a 2007 win and a recent hot streak to build on. He's the favorite.
After that, the guys with the best histroy at this famous course include Henrik Stenson, the defender and a top ten finisher in three of four starts. If he had played better in the US this year he would be at the top of the list, but he told Faldo at the Masters that, essentially, he doesn't have his game right now. A couple of nice overseas results recently have me reconsidering, but Henrik lies outside my top five this week.
Els, Furyk, Sergio, Westwood, and Harrington also have at least two top tens here, and all but Serge are playing well enough to win this week. Poulter is a nice pick too. He finished second last year and you know I've man crushed on the Pink Pantser all year. I just wonder if his knee is ready to go. He says it is.
Stricker and Kim have withdrawn due to injury. Kim may opt for thumb surgery, which would cause him to miss at least one month.
Sleepers? Fowler, always. His game is so impressive, and he's up to four top tens on the year including two in a row. Stephen Ames has won here before and usually plays well, and Charl Schwartzel has too much game to be ignored as well. Finally, it was nice to see Cabrera show up last week in Charlotte. Can he carry his momentum forward? He's way too unpredictable.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
McIlroy
Westwood
Poulter
Course History
Stenson
Garcia
Mickelson
Furyk
Ames
Who's Hot
Mickelson
McIlroy
Furyk
Els
Fowler
Who's Not
Garcia
Cink
Weir
Kaymer
Woods?
My Picks
Mickelson
McIlroy
Els
Poulter
Westwood
Cheers,
TFAM
Anyway, she also said it's McIlroy's 21st birthday this week, but I'm thinking that since he's a Brit that there wasn't any excessive partying and that he'ss be ready to go for Sawgrass. He's actually one of the top picks this week, as the 62 has to give him loads of confidence, and his back seems to be fine.
Of all the events Tiger plays, this one is the last I'd pick him to win. He has done it, but just once in 12 tries, and he's top 10'd just four times here, so it isn;t his best venue. Phil has played the course better recently, and has a 2007 win and a recent hot streak to build on. He's the favorite.
After that, the guys with the best histroy at this famous course include Henrik Stenson, the defender and a top ten finisher in three of four starts. If he had played better in the US this year he would be at the top of the list, but he told Faldo at the Masters that, essentially, he doesn't have his game right now. A couple of nice overseas results recently have me reconsidering, but Henrik lies outside my top five this week.
Els, Furyk, Sergio, Westwood, and Harrington also have at least two top tens here, and all but Serge are playing well enough to win this week. Poulter is a nice pick too. He finished second last year and you know I've man crushed on the Pink Pantser all year. I just wonder if his knee is ready to go. He says it is.
Stricker and Kim have withdrawn due to injury. Kim may opt for thumb surgery, which would cause him to miss at least one month.
Sleepers? Fowler, always. His game is so impressive, and he's up to four top tens on the year including two in a row. Stephen Ames has won here before and usually plays well, and Charl Schwartzel has too much game to be ignored as well. Finally, it was nice to see Cabrera show up last week in Charlotte. Can he carry his momentum forward? He's way too unpredictable.
Most Talent
Woods
Mickelson
McIlroy
Westwood
Poulter
Course History
Stenson
Garcia
Mickelson
Furyk
Ames
Who's Hot
Mickelson
McIlroy
Furyk
Els
Fowler
Who's Not
Garcia
Cink
Weir
Kaymer
Woods?
My Picks
Mickelson
McIlroy
Els
Poulter
Westwood
Cheers,
TFAM
Sunday, May 2, 2010
MaRKet MadNeSs
One month is in the books, and we have come to the best trading time of the year for those who are smart fantasy baseball owners. Most of us will fully evaluate our squads sometime between now and Memorial Dayy. I'm talking a serious look to see what strengths and weaknesses each team has and which players are coming to the end of their leash due to lack of production.
Owners are ready to deal in May, and here are a few that should be sent packing and a few players to target.
Sell High
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays
Vernon now has eight bombs and is hitting .323. Last year, he hit .260 with 15 jacks. He's the same player, except he isn't running this year.
Chris B. Young, OF, Diamondbacks
He is off to a nice start, showing a bit of the power speed combo that had us all salivating three years ago. The problem is, since his 2007 breakout, he's hitting .233 in two seasons. Now? He's at .286. Deal immediately.
Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers
Austin is tearing up the league the first time through at a .355 clip, yet he's a career .288 minor league hitter (which translates to about .270 in the bigs), with no power who strikes out a ton. I'd say the league will catch up to Jackson. Everyone loves prospects, so it's time to strike and deal him when the iron is hot.
Buy Low
Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers
He isn't the steroid Manny, but he should still be able to help out when he comes off the DL in a few days. Check in to see what the price is at least.
Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees
I told you not to draft guys who you know are going to start slow! Tex is in a classic early season slump. Is his owner in your league at the bottom of the standings and reaching now or never time? He's a lock to rebound eventually, though he has slumped until summer before.
Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
I could really put Justin Upton here two, thinking of another younger player who is struggling, but I've discussed Justin before. Beckham will turn his .221, one HR, one SB, season around shortly, and isn't in danger of losing playing time. When all is said and done he is still going to give you .275/20/10 from a second baseman.
Cheers,
TFAM
Owners are ready to deal in May, and here are a few that should be sent packing and a few players to target.
Sell High
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays
Vernon now has eight bombs and is hitting .323. Last year, he hit .260 with 15 jacks. He's the same player, except he isn't running this year.
Chris B. Young, OF, Diamondbacks
He is off to a nice start, showing a bit of the power speed combo that had us all salivating three years ago. The problem is, since his 2007 breakout, he's hitting .233 in two seasons. Now? He's at .286. Deal immediately.
Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers
Austin is tearing up the league the first time through at a .355 clip, yet he's a career .288 minor league hitter (which translates to about .270 in the bigs), with no power who strikes out a ton. I'd say the league will catch up to Jackson. Everyone loves prospects, so it's time to strike and deal him when the iron is hot.
Buy Low
Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers
He isn't the steroid Manny, but he should still be able to help out when he comes off the DL in a few days. Check in to see what the price is at least.
Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees
I told you not to draft guys who you know are going to start slow! Tex is in a classic early season slump. Is his owner in your league at the bottom of the standings and reaching now or never time? He's a lock to rebound eventually, though he has slumped until summer before.
Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
I could really put Justin Upton here two, thinking of another younger player who is struggling, but I've discussed Justin before. Beckham will turn his .221, one HR, one SB, season around shortly, and isn't in danger of losing playing time. When all is said and done he is still going to give you .275/20/10 from a second baseman.
Cheers,
TFAM
Saturday, May 1, 2010
As Seen on TV
So, my classes are finally done for a few months, and my schedule has freed up a bit. For the most part , I'll be writing morning entries on weekends and evening entries on weekdays for about the next month. I won;t have to miss anymore Thursdays either.
There's actually a lot to catch up on, so...
Have you picked up Miguel Olivo or Eric Young Jr. yet? Ianetta is in the minors, and Barmes is terrible. EYJ is unstoppable in the running game (he had 264 steals in the minors over the last four years), and he's already got three in five games in the bigs. Olivo hit 20+ HR as a part time catcher in KC last year, and should do it again in Colorado.
Josh Hamilton is heating up, with three homers and eight RBI in his last 11 games.
Orlando Hudson is also hot, with 13 hits in his last seven games.
Kevin Kouzmanoff, notorious for his streakiness, is starting to hit, just not for power. It may be a good week to play Kouz.
Juan Pierre is making me look bad. Now he hitting ninth and falling out of favor on the South Side. Just remember, Juan is a career .300 hitter who is now hitting .193. There's still a lot of value to be had as long as the PT is there.
Meanwhile, Alex Rios has tied Pierre with nine stolen bases.
Watched Liriano on TV the other day. I'd say the slider is 85 percent back. That's enough, by the way.
I've written about him before, but Jaime Garcia is pumping out value right now. Milk a few more starts and deal him for a proven K guy.
Some dish called Alfredo Simon is apparently your new closer in Baltimore. He's not considered a long term solution, but, if your desperate...
Trevor Hoffman cannot get good hitters out right now. I'm still saying LaTroy Hawkins as next in line in Milwaukee.
Joe Mauer hasn't homered since the first series of the season. Weird. I still think 25 are coming, and hey, he hadn't played a game yet at this time last year.
Cheers,
TFAM
There's actually a lot to catch up on, so...
Have you picked up Miguel Olivo or Eric Young Jr. yet? Ianetta is in the minors, and Barmes is terrible. EYJ is unstoppable in the running game (he had 264 steals in the minors over the last four years), and he's already got three in five games in the bigs. Olivo hit 20+ HR as a part time catcher in KC last year, and should do it again in Colorado.
Josh Hamilton is heating up, with three homers and eight RBI in his last 11 games.
Orlando Hudson is also hot, with 13 hits in his last seven games.
Kevin Kouzmanoff, notorious for his streakiness, is starting to hit, just not for power. It may be a good week to play Kouz.
Juan Pierre is making me look bad. Now he hitting ninth and falling out of favor on the South Side. Just remember, Juan is a career .300 hitter who is now hitting .193. There's still a lot of value to be had as long as the PT is there.
Meanwhile, Alex Rios has tied Pierre with nine stolen bases.
Watched Liriano on TV the other day. I'd say the slider is 85 percent back. That's enough, by the way.
I've written about him before, but Jaime Garcia is pumping out value right now. Milk a few more starts and deal him for a proven K guy.
Some dish called Alfredo Simon is apparently your new closer in Baltimore. He's not considered a long term solution, but, if your desperate...
Trevor Hoffman cannot get good hitters out right now. I'm still saying LaTroy Hawkins as next in line in Milwaukee.
Joe Mauer hasn't homered since the first series of the season. Weird. I still think 25 are coming, and hey, he hadn't played a game yet at this time last year.
Cheers,
TFAM
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