Playoff Fantasy Football

I hinted a couple of times in the past week that I would be talking playoff fantasy football this week.  I'll keep writing about Week 17 thoughts as well, but you shouldn't be playing your league champuonship game then, just doesn't make sense.  If you want to have a one week draft, that would be okay to have a one week free-for-all type thing, but no fantasy championships please.

Anyway. here is what I have been doing for playoff fantasy football with my buddies for the last few years.  We have six owners (12 would also work) who basically draft every player playing in the playoffs.  Each team ends up with 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D/ST.  That means the six teams have drafted all the quarterbacks, kickers and defenses and most of the backs and receivers are taken as well.  We use a snake draft (via email, unfortunately), with the draft order being determined by an automated dice roller website.  The draft is 16 rounds and needs to be completed by the Saturday of wild card weekend.  Your team, once drafted, accumulates points just as they would in the regular season, but you are just looking for the highest point total when the playoffs are finished.  So, you just use a speadsheet to add up each teams points for the playoffs.  When a player has been eliminated from the playoffs, they can no longer score points for his/her team.  Make sense?  Obviously you want the guys on your team who are likely to play the most games in the playoffs, but figuring out who those guys are going to be is a bit dicey (see last year's Cardinals).  The only other thing to think about is installing team quarterback for this format.  You want to try and mitigate any influence that an unfortunate injury would have for this sort of league.

I will post my playoff rankings early next week when the seeds are determined for the NFL playoffs, but I can already tell you that I'm going to be heavy on San Diego, who I think is going to the Super Bowl.

I'd like to hear any of your playoff fantasy ideas as well.  What do you do?

UPDATE:  No blog tomorrow...FYI.  Travel day, be back at it Thursday.

Cheers,
TFAM

As Seen On TV

I love the point Bill Simmons made on his Twitter account yesterday.  To paraphrase, if the Colts decided their starters would only play a half, why not the second half?  I felt terrible for Curtis Painter yesterday.  I mean, he should have been able to do something, but he now has he weight of destroying the Colts perfect season on his shoulders.  If nothing else, Painter is the victim here.

Anyway, here is what I saw while watching the slate of NFL games in Week 16.

Sean Payton may just have a two back philosophy.  When Pierre Thomas was hurt yesterday in the second quarter I figured Mike Bell would take over his carries and have a big game.  Instead, Lynell Hamilton pretty much took the Thomas carries, keeping their running back rotation intact.  I'm not going to be a fan of any Saints runner in 2010.

Buffalo is a long way away from fantasy relevance.

Jerome Harrison has done enough to start in Cleveland in 2010.  I actually think this team is further ahead than the Bills, Rams, Bears, Lions, or Seahawks at this point.

Matt Schaub is the greatest first half quarterback of all time.

Guys who didn't win any 2010 points yesterday:  Julius Jones, Quinton Ganther.

The guy most likely to swing Week 17 championships:  Jonathan Stewart.

Matt Moore is better than Jake Delhomme.

The Pats may have finally pulled the plug on Maroney after yet another fumble at the goal line.

So funny that Arian Foster put up 97 and a touch yesterday.  Also funny that the Texans finally start to play ball once their playoff hopes are finished.  Can't wait for Kubiak in 2010.

Watched some of the Chiefs game and I came away, as usual, very impressed with Jamaal Charles.  Look out if that guy gets an offensive line.

Looking for 40 yards and no fumbles out of AP tonight.

Cheers,
TFAM

Sunday Hunch

Week 16.

We've been playing to get here all year.  It is the culmination of the fantasy year, and it means we have to wait eight more months before draft day (unless you play playoffs, which, again, we'll get to next week).

Anyway, I have a hunch that these things will happen in the NFL today.

I think Baltimore/Pittsburgh will be low scoring.  I don't believe the defenses are done quite yet.

I think Jason Snelling is a top 10 RB option this week without Turner  playing.  Just to clarify, I haven't heard on Turner yet.

I don't love Jon Stewart, even though Williams is out.  Panthers still have to rely on Matt Moore.

Also top 10 RBs...Benson, Harrison, Grant and Ricky Williams.

Don't expect the Cowboys to score big in Washington.  They put up seven against them last time, and pride has to kick in for the Skins after last week.  Dallas/Washington is always competitive.

Stud that doesn't get it done this week:  DeSean Jackson.

Cheers,
TFAM

Just Thinkin' About Tomorrow

Back from X-mas vacation, actually still in New York, but back to the blog.  I spent my last two days riding in an RV to Long Island through everything Mother Nature could throw at us and we survived.  You know what, my fantasy team also survived an onslaught by the Chargers offense, and I'm looking pretty good.  I'm in one championship matchup, playing against Rivers, V. Jackson, old nemesis Dallas Clark and others.  When I saw the score of last night's game I thought I was finished, but, nothing from V-Jax and two from Rivers has me feeling better.  Darren Sproles, meet Patrick Jeffers.

Anyway, here is what I'll be looking for in the NFL tomorrow and Monday, with one eye on my team this week, one of who I want to select in the fantasy playoffs (more on that this week), and one on 2010.  Yes, I am Ghidorah, but I have three eyes, or something like that.

I want to see what the Colts are up to tomorrow.  How long will the starters play, and are any Colts going to do anything if Manning is out of the game.  Real risky to start any of those guys this week.

Is Jason Snelling a starter at home against the Bills?  Check on Turner's status, but Snelling has a lot to gain from playing well against a bad run defense.

We may get to see exactly how good Jamaal Charles is tomorrow.  He has been feasting on bad teams, and he gets the Bengals this week.

Jerome Harrison=Chumbawamba?  Maybe not against the Raiders.

How many points to the Packers beat the Seahawks by tomorrow?  20? 30? 40?

Paging the Patriots offense, Tom Brady, you're wanted in the top five of the season ending QB rankings.

I'm curious about Robert Meachem.  He had a nice little run, but what can we expect from him going forward?

The Steelers and Ravens played a fantasy killing 13-9 game in Week 15, but where have the defenses gone?  Will it be a shooout in Pittsburgh tomorrow?  I have a hunch the Hunch will discuss this tomorrow morning.

Who is going to be the player (outside of CJ) who carries teams to fantasy glory this weekend.  Harrison, all the Cardinals, all the Niners, and Cedric Benson all have great matchups.  Who is going to step up?

Cheers,
TFAM

Sneaky Pickups

Assuming your league still allows you to make moves, here are a few guys who may be nice fill-ins for you this week.  I'm assuming most teams still alive have their rosters pretty well set, but you never know.  Hey, maybe your league features a toilet bowl round.  Obviously, if Jerome Harrison is available, he is a top 15 start at RB this week against Oakland.  Maybe higher.

Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons
I love Snelling this week if Turner deosn't play.  Grab him if he is available.

Michael Bush, RB, Raiders
Bush looked good last week, Fargas seems to be an afterthought, finally.  Raiders play the Browns this week.

Fred Taylor, RB, Patriots
Don't know if he is going to play, but I do know the Patriots are playing Taylor's old team, the Jags.

Josh Morgan, WR, 49ers
Morgan has been quietly productive lately (16 catches, two scores in his last three games), Niners play the Lions.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
I expect that the Packers will beat the Seahawks 42-7 Sunday.  Lots to go around here.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers
If he is available, he's surely a top 10 QB option this week.  Love Davis and Crabtree too.

Mike Hart, RB, Colts
Back to the well.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts
Could be back in the mix.  I like Garcon and Collie more though.

Fred Davis, TE, Redskins
Five scores in his last four games.  Hottest TE around other than Dallas Clark.

Cheers,
TFAM

Hits and Misses

How about a list, looking forward and back, about 2009 fantasy football?

Fantasy MVP...Chris Johnson
Fantasy LVP...Matt Forte
I was so right about...Matt Schaub
I was so wrong about (I was so sure he would be good)...Pierre Thomas
I was so wrong about (I was so sure he wouldn't be good)...Laurence Maroney
Biggest surprise...Vernon Davis
I now love...Jamaal Charles
I now hate (player)...Dallas Clark
I now hate (coach)...Gary Kubiak
Best rookie...Knowshon Moreno
Super Bowl prediction...Saints over Chargers
Next year's bust...DeAngelo Williams
Next's year's surprises...Beanie Wells, Michael Crabtree
Next year's top pick...Adrian Peterson
2010 offense on the rise...49ers
2010 offense in decline...Cardinals

Cheers,
TFAM

As Seen On TV

Did anyone else get Kubiaked yesterday by Arian Foster?  It was a fitting end to my season in one league, as I have been playing musical chairs with Foster, Slaton, Brown and Moats all season long.  If you didn't see, Foster fumbled on the first series and didn't return.  This after Kubiak spent an entire week pumping up his talents.

Here is what else in noticed from Week 15 in the NFL.

So many teams are just changing roles on the fly, I feel.  Michael Bush is back in the mix for Oakland (and he took the goal line work yesterday), and Jerome Harrison became Barry Sanders following a week where we predicted big things for Chris Jennings.

Both Hightower and Wells appears at the stripe for the Cards and both scored.  Wells did eveything else though.

Mike Hart didn't get as much run as I thought, but he will next week for Indy.

Alex Smith really struggled with the blitz yesterday.

Bryant McKinnie did his best 2003 Michael Oher impersonation, namely, showing the world he has no idea how to play offensive tackle.  It killed the Vikings last night.

So much for Antonio Bryant.  It will be interesting to see where he ends up next year.

Rashard Mendenhall may have had only 38 yards rushing, but his 73 via the pass were huge.  The guy can play.

Big Ben and Aaron Rodgers combined for 886 passing yards and six touchdowns yesterday.

Justin Gage is back, and scored twice, but those were his only two catches.  I wouldn't chase that one.

Laurence Maroney continues to get the majority of the work in New England.  Sammy Morris is almost a non-factor.

Tom Brady's finger must be hurting more than we know.  Eleven completions?

God bless Jamaal Charles and Marion Barber, who helped me to the brink of a title in my dynasty league this week....as long as Brandon Jacobs doesn''t score three times tonight.

Cheers,
TFAM

Sunday Hunch

It will be hard to follow up one of the more hilarious moments of the season last night, namely, the Nick Folk missed field goal montage preceeding the clank of his 20 yarder off the upright that should have cost Dallas the most important game of their season.  Anyone want to bet that there will be a new kicker in Dallas next week?

I have a hunch today that these things will happen.

Weather will play a significant role in more than one game.  Could be snow, could be cold, could be wind.  I'll post a chat update about weather @ 11:30.

Knowshon Moreno is the best start at RB today.  I say he outscores AP and CJ, not combined though.

That huge came will come at the expense of Brandon Marshall, who won't score or top 100 today.

You'll want to get Beanie Wells into your starting lineup.  I think he gets a lot of work today.  Lock for one score, good bet for two.

I think the Steelers rise up and beat the Pack today.  I also think Mendenhall is playable against the best run defense in the league.

TJ Houshmandzadeh will continue to show you why he is one of the top five fantasy busts of the year, even against Tampa.  Don't play TJ.

Cheers,
TFAM

Just Thinkin' About Tomorrow

Keep an eye on the weather tomorrow, as it will likley play a role in Pittsburgh (Green Bay), Baltimore (Chicago), Buffalo (New England), New York (Atlanta), and Philadelphia (San Francisco).  Keep an eye out tomorrow morning (I'll be here too) and use weather as a tiebreaker if you need to.

Other than weather, here is what else I'll be keeping an eye on tomorrow.

What's up with New England?  It will be interesting to keep an eye on Moss, and I wonder if Maroney is going to chew up a bad Bills run defense.

Will Gary Kubiak stick to his promise and turn Arian Foster into a great fantasy play tomorrow against the Rams?

Will Chris Jennings turn out to be the guy who wins people fantasy titles?  The Browns get Kansas City and Oakland the next two games.

Or will it be Quinton Ganther?

Will Fitzy play, and which Cards will join in the fun against the Lions?  All of them?

Chris Johnson will continue his run for 2000 (or maybe even 2105).  He is sitting on 1626.

Knowshon Moreno home against Oakland?   Uhhhhhhhh...

It's last stand time for Pittsburgh against the Packers.  Will their defense respond?  How about Mendenhall?

Cheers,
TFAM

Friday Five

I was thinking I would write some hate mail in the Five this morning to Dallas Clark, who is on the verge of beating a team of mine single-handedly for the third time this year, but I am going to refrain.  I'd like to take a differehnt approach this week.  Since I will not be posting the Friday Five next week due to a traveling situation for the holidays, I wanted to introduce you to five players you should be watching during the college bowl season.  Each of these five could make an impact on the fantasy leandscape next year.

C.J. Spiller is a Chris Johnson clone.  Clemson plays Kentucky on December 27.  Spiller will be a first rounder.

Jonathan Dwyer is a bigger back with stregth and some elusiveness.  The Yellow Jackets play in the Orange Bowl against a good Iowa defense on January 5.

Mardy Gilyard is a speedy downfield threat.  He isn't as tall as I like, but, neither is DeSean Jackson.  Gilyard is actually 6'1, which is pretty decent size.  He and the Bearcats play against Florida in the Sugar Bowl on January 1.

Toby Gerhart is a big, brusing between the tackles type back from Stanford.  He is likely to be a second or third rounder, who could be of use depending on the situation he lands in.  Stanford plays Oklahoma on New Year's Eve.

Finally, Danario Alexander is a 6'5, beast of a wide receiver.  He tore up the Big 12 at Missouri this year.  The Tigers play Navy on New Year's Eve.

Cheers,
TFAM

Fantasy LVPs

Last week, I analyzed the fantasy MVPs of the regular season by looking at all the players that were on playoff teams in each of my three leagues.  You can find that information here.  This week, let's see who the least valuable players in fantasy football were this year.

Here is the list of players who were not on playoff teams in any of my leagues.  I will exclude players who haven't been on rosters for more than a couple weeks.

QB
Tom Brady
Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Cassel

RB
Marshawn Lynch
Willie Parker
Darren McFadden
Brian Westbrook

WR/TE
Derrick Mason
Steve Smith (CAR)
Marques Colston
Greg Jennings (made the playoffs due to a late season trade in one league)

That's it.  It's actually a pretty nice list of LVPs.  Colston, Mason and Brady performed a little too well to be LVPs, and certainly some others really gave it their all, but still couldn't make the list.  Look at the names of guys who have been subpar this year that aren't on the lists above.

Matt Forte
Kevin Smith
Steve Slaton
Micahel Turner
Jason Witten
Calvin Johnson
Jay Cutler
TJ Houshmandzadeh
Terrell Owens
Carson Palmer

The lesson, again, is that one draft pick, good or bad, hardly secures the fortunes of your fantasy squad.  Owners can overcome a disasterous Matt Forte pick if they push other the right buttons in other places.  Unwillingness to work the waiver wire, and failing to find good players late in drafts is what will take your team apart.

2009 Regular Season LVPs

Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Cassel
Marshawn Lynch
Willie Parker
Darren McFadden
Brian Westbrook
Greg Jennings
Steve Smith (CAR)

Cheers,
TFAM

Sneaky Pickups

As I said to a few fellow owners in one of my leagues this week, it's the time for your team to just focus on their next game. Your backs are against the wall, it's do or die, and nobody believes in you. But, if you just keep doing the things you've been doing all year, you should be okay.  However, remember that anything can happen in the playoffs and that there is no tomorrow.

Here are the Week 15 plug-n-play's.

Mike Hart, RB, Colts
Addai and Brown are both on the injury report.  Hart is going to see a lot of work.  He may not start, but he'll play.

Maurice Morris, RB, Lions
Somebody has to run the ball for Detroit.  He should get 10-15 rather useless touches.

Chris Jennings, RB, Browns
The Browns have moved into Kubiak territory, and I have no idea what is going to happen in their backfield, but Jennings had 20 carries and a touchdown while Harrison had only nine touches.

Josh Cribbs, WR/RB/QB/KR, Browns
Again, it's the Browns, but Cribbs is their best weapon, and he ran it eight times for 87 yards last week as well.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans
Speaking of Kubiak, the Texans are trotting out yet another running back this week.  Kubiak says he'll be featured, and they play the Rams.  Can't wait 'till he fumbles.  Who's next, Domanick Davis?

Jacoby Jones, WR, Texans
The Rams gave up 47 to the Titans last week.  The Texans offense is better than the Titans...

Keith Null, QB, Rams
Just kidding.  How many betters took the Rams and the points last week only to turn on the game at three and see something named Keith Null under center.....(slowing raising my hand).....?

Leonard Weaver, RB, Eagles
He has become a cinch to score more fantasy points than McCoy.

Zach Miller, TE, Raiders
I'm pretty sure Jamarcus only sees the field between the hashes, which is great news for Miller.  Also great news?  Dallas Clark scored three times against the Broncos last week.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants
High comedy with Nicks last week.  He immediately earned a last minute invitation to the Duran banquet last week.  He also had 110 yards and a score.

Fred Davis, TE, Redskins
Scored in three straight.  Leads all tight ends in red zone targets over the last three weeks.

Deon B, WR, Seahawks
I just don't know if Branch or Butler is the guy, but someone is going to start in Burleson's place, and #2 WRs usually have success against Tampa.

Cheers,
TFAM

Indianapolis Indigestion

As you know, the Colts are 13-0 and have clinched the top AFC playoff seed.  What does that mean for fantasy owners?

How many Colts are relevant at this point in the fantasy season?  Manning, Wayne, Clark, Addai, and Garcon are likley going to be started by many fantasy owners this week.  But, is that a good idea?  Sure, if you've counted on them before, you get the green light again this week after Jim Caldwell came out and said it is full speed ahead, at least for one more week. 

As for next week....?

It's my belief that Manning, Addai, Wayne & Co. are going to be as startable as He Hate Me in Week 16.  You can't count on them at all.  Start making your contingency plans this week.  I'd be shocked if any of those Colts played more than a half against the Jets in Week 16.

What about the other teams?  The Saints say they are going for it, so you can feel pretty comfortable there.  The Vikings look good through Week 16, but they are very likley to ease off with AP and Favre in Week 17.  The Chargers may be able to lock up a number two seed this week also, so keep an eye on them for Week 16 and surely for Week 17.

Cheers,
TFAM

As Seen on TV

I hope no one bet the over on that Eagles-Giants tilt last night.  I mean, it was soaking wet, right?  Seemed like a game that would be played in the 30s, rather than 80s, but, what do I know?

Speaking of that Giants game, didn;t the Giants Super Bowl win two years ago happens because their front four simply overpowered the Cowboys, Packers and Patriots?  Now, they are blitzing all over the place and getting routinely torched.  DeSean Jackson just scored another touchdown this morning.

Quinton Ganther may have scored twice, but he looked like a plodder to me.

Told you Ray Rice and CJ had the scariest matchups of the year. 

Thank God for Andre Johnson.

Phil Rivers, like Jake Delhomme, plays 500 with his receivers.  The difference?  Floyd and Jackson are 6'5.  Steve Smith is 5'9.  Changes things a bit...

Not sure if it matters, but Justin Fargas is still getting goal line work in Oakland.

Leave no stone unturned when looking at the Cardinals roster this week.  They play the Lions, and that defense is pathetic.

No one in the league works harder than Wes Welker.  Not even Randy Moss.

Jay Cutler is making awful decisions, but Earl Bennett, Johnny Knox and Co. are not helping him at all.  If the Bears fix that, I like Cutler for 2010.

Percy Harvin means a lot to Brett Favre.  Huge difference in the passing attck if he's not there.  May actually help AP.

Freakin' Reggie Bush.

Willis McGahee isn't to be trusted.  Lots of garbage time points there.

Marion Barber got plenty of goal line chances Sunday.  He'll cash those in.  We thought LT had the same issue and he's back on the TD train.

Cheers,
TFAM

Sunday Hunch

I'm not sure exactly what my hunch percentage is on the year, but I know the 68 % has taken a hit in the last couple of weeks.  I'm going unblemished today though, so these are money in the bank.

Marion Barber gets off the schnide and scores today against San Diego.

I think at least one Atlanta RB is startable today.  I just wish I knew who was going to get more action.  That's a cop out, huh?

LOVE Jamaal Charles today.  I think he is a top five fantasy RB this week.

You know who else is top five?  Pierre Thomas...IF Mike Bell doesn't play.

I wouldn't be afriad to start Reggie Wayne against Champ today.  He'll score a touchdown.

Sammy Morris will outscore Laurence Maroney in the fantasy world this week.

Cheers,
TFAM

Just Thinkin' About Tomorrow

How about those Steelers?  Gotta love the effort Rashard Mendenhall threw out there against the Browns.  You know, Mendenhall could be a fantasy beast, but the Steelers have lost their identity.  They throw entirley too much for the tyoe of team they have.  They should invest in the offensive line, and begin to pound it again next year.  The pass happy things works well until the calendar hits late November.

Here's what I'll be looking for tomorrow in the all important Week 14 action in the NFL.

Still gotta look toward the Seahawks (even though I dealt Julius and Housh a couple weeks ago along wiht Mendenhall for Barber and Crabtree in a dynasty league).  Forsett is supposedly going to get more carries, but will he be better than Julius?

In Atlanta, which RB will be the guy you want down the stretch, Norwood or Snelling?  This week should be a nice indicator.

Big week for lesser known RBs.  Charles, F. Jackson and Ganther all have juicy matchups.

Who will win the tasty matchup of the season battle between Ray Rice (Lions) and Chris Johnson (Texans)?  My money, literally, is on Johnson.

Is Robert Meachem really making a run at the #1 WR job in New Orleans?  I know he was a first rounder, but he came out of nowhere.

Can Denver stay on the field with the Colts, therefore making Moreno a nice play?

Will Cedric Benson produce against the best home run defense in the NFL?

Huge games in Dallas, New York, and San Francisco that will impact the fantasy landscape.  Will Vincent Jackson break out of the slump, or does Gates keep stealing the thunder?  It has been one or the other this year.

Did you know Vernon Davis has more fantasy points than every WR other than Moss, Fitz, Austin, Andre and Wayne?  Very impressive.

Staying with the Niners.  Alex Smith really has it rolling.  Will that continue against the Cards, and how much has the spread hurt Frank Gore?

Jennings or Driver in Chicago?  My gut says Driver, who has been the better play all year.

Cheers,
TFAM

Friday Five

Short and sweet.  Five things I'd rather do than listen to any more of the Tiger Woods saga.  I'm done.

I'd rather try and defend this guy on the pitch.

Keeping with teh same theme, I'd rather try and stop a free kick by Roberto Carlos.

I'd rather stand trial in Maricopa County, Arizona.

I'd rather have this lady deliver my mail.

I'd rather have been this cheerleader at the Utah Jazz game.

Cheers,
TFAM

Starting Quinton Ganther

Anyone else besides me have a shot at $500 riding on the decision of whether or not to start Quinton Ganther this week?  I'm playing him.  Granted, my options other than Ganther are two Saints, two Texans and a partridge in a pear tree, but know that I'm actually fired up about my man.

See, the Redskins are playing the Raiders this week.  Allow me to list for you a few running backs, along with their total yardage and touchdown numbers in their games against the Raiders this year.  This includes EVERY game the Raiders have played.

LT, 56-1
Sproles, 66-2
L. Johnson, 119-0
Buckhalter, 108-0
Moreno, 90-1
Slaton, 89-2
Moats, 56-0
Jacobs, 75-0
Bradshaw, 175-2
Westbrook, 141-0
T. Jones, 124-1
Greene, 144-2
LT, 56-2
Sproles, 46-0
Charles, 117-1
B. Scott, 151-0
Barber, 102-0
F. Jones, 69-1
Choice, 67-0
Mendenhall, 103-1

As you can see, the Raiders haven't stopped one team on the ground all year.  The only games where the opponent didn't score a rushing TD, LJ, Scott, and Westbrook went off in total yardage.  Hey, if LJ can get it done, Quinton Ganther can too.  I say he's a top-15 back this week and can be started with confidence.

Cheers,
TFAM

Regular Season Standouts

So, as I've said, I'm in three leagues.  One thing that I thought may be interesting to investigate was which players were the difference makers in the leagues I was in this year.  To do this, I started by looking at which players were on playoff teams in all three of my leagues.  Here they are.

QB
Kurt Warner
Phil Rivers
Matt Leinart
Aaron Rodgers

RB
Chris Johnson
Shonn Greene
Ray Rice
Jamaal Charles
Thomas Jones
Julius Jones

WR/TE
Vernon Davis
Steve Breaston
DeSean Jackson
Dallas Clark
Vincent Jackson
Mike Sims-Walker
Miles Austin
Jerricho Cotchery
Devin Hester
Pierre Garcon

Not surprisingly, this is mostly a laundry list of the fantasy difference makers this year.  Time and time again, it isn't about the guy you take first (or spend the most money on), it's about the bargains and who hits the right buttons when it comes to free agents.  Notice the high profile guys who are having great years that didn't make the list.

Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Brett Favre
Matt Schaub
Randy Moss
Wes Welker
Reggie Wayne

It takes more than just picking a few stars in the draft/auction, clearly.  Using the knowledge from the lists above, I declare these players to be the Fantasy MVPs of the regular season in 2009.  These are the guys that you got that were the true difference makers for your team.

Kurt Warner
Aaron Rodgers
Phillip Rivers
Ray Rice
Chris Johnson
Jamaal Charles
Thomas Jones
Vincent Jackson
DeSean Jackson
Mike Sims-Walker
Miles Austin
Pierre Garcon
Dallas Clark
Vernon Davis

Am I missing anyone?

Cheers,
TFAM

Sneaky Pickups

The two juiciest matchups of the year for running backs both come this week.  CJ gets the Rams, and Ray Rice gets Detroit.  Both those defenses just seem like they will be unable to slow those guys down.  I have to play Rice in one league, but I avoided CJ, who may put up 50 on his own.  At least I can hope that McGahee steals a few points from Rice.

Week 14 plug and plays....

Jerome Harrison, RB, Browns
Yes, they play sthe Steelers.  However, he'll get more touches than anyone else on this list.

Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers
If Ward doesn't play...

Jerrious Norwood, RB, Falcons
Terrible last week, but the 11 carries are encouraging.  He should be able to pick up some decent yardage against NO.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills
I have forgone my one week belief in the Chiefs defense.

Sammy Morris, RB, Patriots
Maybe the best play on the list.  I think he has more impact than Maroney.

Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins
Two straight games with scores, Jags pass defense is playing JV ball.

Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens
Almost a lock for a TD Sunday against Detroit.

Mark Clayton, WR, Ravens
Clayton's entire career has been a buzzkill, but it's the LIONS.  Still think Boldin ends up in Baltimore next year.

Quinton Ganther, RB, Redskins
Didn't I mention him earlier this year?  Yeah, a bit premature, but, eight carries, 46 yards against the Saints.  The Skins could increase his workload.

Leonard Weaver, RB Eagles
Team doesn't seem to trust McCoy.  Buckley is a potential goal ine sniper though.

 Cheers,
TFAM

As Seen on TV

The final verdict on my teams?  Two in, one out.  Both teams in the playoffs are in the race for the points title.  I will have high points in both leagues if Ray Rice lays an egg in Green Bay tonight.  Go Willis McGahee!

Here is what I noticed from watching all the action yesterday (besides Shaun Suisham's unexcusable missed field goal).

It's clear from looking at the box score that Jerome Harrison is the favored option over Chris Jennings in Cleveland.  I was wrong on this one.  Harrison was also the goal line option for the Browns and scored twice through the air.

It seems as though Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson is an either/or thing.

The Vikings offensive line is not playing good football.  Where are the holes for AP?

Julius Jones and Justin Forsett split time.  This kills the fantasy value of both.  Ditto for Snelling and Norwood in Atlanta.

Rock Cartwright was again removed from the game at the stripe.

It's clear the Cowboys are trying to get the ball to Felix Jones is playmaking situations.

Greg Olsen was heavily double teamed yesterday.  He had no chance.  This isn't going to change until the Bears get WRs that can play.  Devin Hester does not qualify.  Can't belive people still call him a #1 WR.

Matt Schaub gutted it out Sunday, but he was in pain.  I bet he'll be questionable this week.  Sigh.

WRs to watch if they ever get good quarterback play?  Louis Murphy and Devin Thomas.

Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks just don't get enough run to be trustworthy options.

Did you see Braylon's drop Thursday?

I love watching the 49ers spread attack.  Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree were targeted nine and 12 times respectively.

Cheers,
TFAM

Sunday Hunch

Big, BIG, day in fantasy football.  Here is what I think may happen that might surprise you.

I think Kansas City, despite being a brutal defensive team all year, plays Denver tough today, and keeps that game close.  I also think it will be low scoring.

I think Ocho Cinco has a huge game againnst the Lions.  He's a top five WR today.

Ricky Williams is going to be big again, even though the Pats are stingy against the run.  You have to play Ricky.

I think that, despite the fact that Roethlisberger is back, the Steelers will not pass the ball more than 30 times today.  He's only been under 30 one other time this year, and that was his second worst fantasy game of the season.

I think Chris Jennings scores a touchdown and locks down that job for the rest of 2009.

Michael Crabtree will post the first 100 yard game of his career in Seattle this afternoon.

Cheers,
TFAM

Just Thinkin' About Tomorrow

Christmas came early for me this week, as Fred Jackson, Thomas Jones and Jerricho Cotchery all underperformed Thursday night, giving me a good chance of positioning myself in a fortutous position for the playoffs in two of my three leagues.  In the other league, sigh, I just picked up the Rams defense to try and light a fire under the squad...not good.

Here is what I'll be looking for this week, in an important slate of NFL action.

More Mendenhall?
Rashard gets the Raiders this week.  I think he is huge this week as the Steelers take it easy on Roethlisberger.

Bear Down
Matt Forte should carve up the Rams this week, then, he should be benched for the fantasy playoffs.  Trust me on both accounts.

Charles in Charge
Can Jamaal Charles keep it going against the Broncos?  He has been huge in three straight.

Changing of the Guard
Chris Jennings gets a shot for the Browns against the Chargers this week.  I'm curious to see how he does.  That job is wide open for 2010, and they have a couple nice matchups that can be exploited this year in the fantasy playoffs.

Ringing the Bell
Will Mike Bell continue to aggravate fantasy owners by stealing from Pierre Thomas?

Texas Two Step
It appears Slaton is out, and I fully expect Kubiak to lead us to believe Chris Brown is the guy, then screw us over with Moats.

Desert Storm
Will Kurt Warner play?  If you don't have Leinart, can you start Warner being that he plays in the night game?  Do you want to start Leinart if Warner doesn't play?  I don't think either is a start unless we here Warner will play and we here it before noon.

Giant Uprising?
The Giants are in close to must win territory against Dallas.  Can Brandon Jacobs finallt start producing?  Will Eli rebound from a horrible day in Denver?  Which Giant receiver is worth playing.

Sunday Hunch tomorrow.  Good luck this week.

Cheers,
TFAM

Friday Five

So, I live in the greater Minneapolis area.  When I heard that AP was going 109 MPH this past weekend, I have to say, it made me think twice about travelling down a certain stretch of highway that leads from the southwest suburbs toward downtown, especially on the nights before home games (rumor has it he was heading to the team hotel).  So, the Five this week will recognize five things I would rather do than share a slab of pavement with number 28.

I would rather play goalie for the Panthers.

You've seen it before, but I'd rather play soccer against this...girl?

I'd rather execute this cheerleading maneuver on live television.

Speaking of cheerleaders, I'd rather score two points the hard way.

Finally, I'd rather learn bike tricks from this guy.

Cheers,
TFAM

RIP Reggie

Is Reggie Bush done?  With the news (albeit from Yahoo, who has about as successful of a track record with their "inside sources" as I do at the race track) coming out of New Orleans this week that the Saints may not re-sign him, the former number two overall pick could be finished as a useful fantasy contributor.  I mean, he hasn't been great in New Orleans, but what other team is going to offer the amount of scoring opportunities as the Saints?  No one is going to sign him to be a lead back, and no one is going to use him at the goal line.  So, where exactly does that leave us?  Is he going to be Dave Meggett?  He certainly isn't Marshall Faulk.  Unfortunatley, I think we're looking at a player who has already peaked in terms of fantasy value, and probably will never be fantasy relevant again.

Cheers,
TFAM

One More

Add Chris Jennings, RB, Browns to the list.  It appears Jamal Lewis is done for the year (and his career).  Jennings is likely more valuable than Jerome Harrison.  He's been seeing the rock more as of late.

Sneaky Pickups

Again, the weekly Wednesday column is going to focus on plug-n-plays (wow, that sounds...nevermind), instead of long term value pickups.  The one long term add here is Fred Jackson, who may have taken the Buffalo running back job for good.

Here are a few guys who could be good adds for Week 13.

David Garrard, QB, Jags
I'm wrestling with starting him over Roethlisberger this week.  Houston should be able to score on Jacksonville, so this game has the potential for some points.

Jason Avant, WR, Eagles
With Jackson out, Avant should see even more looks against a bad Atlanta secondary.  He is also working on three nice games in a row.

Andre Caldwell and Laveranues Coles, WR, Bengals
I'm nervous here about a heavily featured rushing attack, but playing all players who face the Lions has been a bulletproof fantasy strategy for some time.

Larry Johnson, RB, Bengals
Whoever is the number two guy behind Benson is going to get a lot of work.

Correll Buckhalter, RB, Broncos
Did you see he had 20 carries last week?  They play the Chiefs Sunday.

Chris Brown, RB, Texans
Yuck.  But we do know he is better than the Texans' other Kris Brown.

Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens
Pack has been tough against the run, but McGahee has regained the goal line in Baltimore.  Probably a play in TD heavy leagues only.

That's it for today.  Hit me up on the chatroll if you have questions.

Cheers,
TFAM

League Integrity

What do you care more about, the integrity of the league, or helping your team win?

It's an interesting topic to talk about at this time of the season.  In one league that I am in, my dynasty league, two 3-9 owners square off this week for the right to the first pick in the 2010 rookie draft.  To the loser goes the spoils in this case, as the team that loses and finishes 3-10 will pick first in every round of the draft next year.  Because there is also a team that is 4-9 (and well on its way to 4-10 with a low point total), there is a very good chance the winning team in that 3-9 battle will drop to the third pick in every round of the draft.  You think that's significant?  Let's take a look at the top rookies in each of the last three years.  I'll try to list them in order of their perceived fantasy value in a dynasty league at the time of the draft.

2009
K. Moreno
D. Brown
L. McCoy
C. Wells
M. Crabtree
P. Harvin

Those six were (and still are) very close in value.

2008
D. McFadden
M. Forte
K. Smith
C. Johnson
R. Mendenhall
F. Jones
R. Rice
M. Ryan

McFadden would have gone first in most dynasty leagues.

2007
A. Peterson
Cal. Johnson
M. Lynch
Ginn Jr., Bowe, A. Gonzo, Meachem, S. Rice, B. Jackson, etc.

What can we conclude?  Well, in two out of three years, it wouldn't have mattered in the least if you had the number one pick, as McFadden and Moreno don't appear as though they are going to be fantasy superstars, though Moreno does have some hope.  Others on that 2009 list have just as much hope though.  In 2007, the drop from 1 to 3 would have been devastating to your fantasy organization.  AP was pretty much a can't miss guy though (Calvin was as well).  Do we have any can't missers in this upcoming draft?  It isn't likley, as the top 10 picks could go by without a RB or WR even taken.  There are going to be some starting running backs coming out of the draft, there always are, but there is no AP.

That being said, I still haven't answered the tanking question.  Would you tank?  Why or why not?  Is it bad for the league?  What is the definition of "the integrity of the league" anyway?

Cheers,
TFAM