We're embarking on week four of the fantasy season, a time when owners start to panic (rightfully so) and useful players end of being cut and bigger names start to move in tthe trade market. Here are five stars who are struggling, and my recommendations as far as what to do with them.
David Wright, 3B, Mets
The Truth: Wright, coming off a strange 2009 campaign where he lost all his magical powers and hit only 10 dingers, is batting just .222 on April 26. He also has three home runs and six stolen bases.
The Verdict: You should be buying Wright now. He's a career .300 hitter and there isn't any reason to think he won't be there in 2010. The homers have him on pace for 25, which is about right, and the steals are great too. In 2007, Wright was hitting .244 with zero homers at the end of April, and finished at .325 30/30.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians
The Truth: Sizemore may need to look at himself in the mirror, as his .220 average, no homer, one steal April has bust written all over it.
The Verdict: I have no idea what is wrong with Grady. His walk rate is slightly down, but he just isn't making hard contact most of the time. Coming off an injury plagued 2009 when he hit just .248 with 18 jacks in 436 ABs, it is time to stop believing Grady is a first round fantasy talent? I cannot recommend buying unless it's bargain city. Don't trade a player close to star level thinking you are buying low. You actually may be buying low, but there isn't a lot of optimism if the steals aren't there.
Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks
The Truth: Upton is batting .203 with three homers and left yesterday's game with a bruised shin. He has three steals to go along with the homers.
The Verdict: You have about ten more days to buy low, and I'd pay full price if I had to. In 2009, Upton finished April at .250 with two homers and one steal. He then hit .373 with seven homers and five steals in May. It's coming again, trust me.
Nick Markakis, OF Orioles
The Truth: Nick the stick is hitting .282, but has no homers and just three RBI for the Orioles in 2010. He's also been shut out on the basepaths, with zero steals (in one atttempt).
The Verdict: Markakis is another slow starter who should get it going as the calendar turns to May. However, I do wonder if this is a guy we've all overrated because he was a young speed/power prospect that saw success early (kinda like Hunter Pence?). In 2007 Markakis smacked 23 homers and stole 18 bags while hitting .300. Since then, the average has remained, but the homers have fallen each year (23-20-18) as have the steals (18-10-6). Is it possible we've already seen the fantasy peak of Markakis? I think it's likely. I still see 20 homers this year and a .300 average, but without any speed, Markakis isn't better than Choo, Abreu, Hunter, Rios, or any other outfielder who is in that 20 home run range but has more speed to offer.
Cheers,
TFAM
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