Monday, March 7, 2011

Ranking the first basemen

I know, I know, me trying to get these rankings out on time is like watching Bengie Molina try to take extra bases.

With first basemen the issue of position scarcity always comes up.  Most people agree that first base is the deepest position in baseball, and the position scarcity point of view would be to say that it may be one of the last positions to fill when building a team.  If the fourth ranked shortstop is, say, a washed up Derek Jeter, then you better grab one of the best and let the quality first baseman (the guys who really put up the monster numbers, BTW) slide by.

Well, I'm not a position scarcity guy.  I'm a stats guy, and I want the best stats, regardless of position.  I know shortstop is shallow, but why pay for a Jeter who'll post avergae numbers when you can get an Orlando Cabrera who'ss post a couple less steals and a few less runs?  Take the stats early, and, often times, the stats come from the big boppers at first base.

1.  A. Pujols -- He does seem to be declining, but the batting average is brilliant.
2.  M. Cabrera -- Not a large gap between he and Albert, also a batting average monster.
3.  A. Gonzalez -- Soem risk here with the league change, but Fenway should be perfect.
4.  J. Votto -- I'm pessimistic on a repeat, but the value falls off here.
5.  P. Fielder -- Contract year?  Could hit 45 HR easily.
6.  K. Youkilis -- I like the batting average, again.  Pretty safe play here.
7.  M. Teixeira -- I think he can bounce back, but I'm not drafting him with the slow start.
8.  R. Howard -- Another slow starter, trade for him in June.
9.  A. Dunn -- I just think he's safer than Morneau, not as much upside though.
10.  J. Morneau -- I have a hard time paying his price with the ?'s.  Seems mysterious he still isn't 100%.
11.  K. Morales -- His ceiling his lower, but his injury seems less severe than Morneau.
12.  B. Butler -- Do you believe? I do, but the drop off has begun.
13.  P. Konerko -- I'm not paying for last year.
14.  C. Pena -- I like him as a bargain.
15.  A. Huff -- Yeah, and you want the lesser first basemen?
16.  D. Lee
17.  A. LaRoche
18.  J. Loney
19.  I. Davis
20.  J. Smoak -- At least there is some upside here as a CI.
21.  F. Freeman -- Ditto
22.  M. Laporta
23.  T. Helton
24.  B. Wallace
25.  G. Sanchez

Now, keep in mind that Posey, C. Lee, Cuddyer, and Berkman all qualify, but I think they are more valuable in their other positions.  C. Lee, Cuddy and Berkman are all in the 15-23 range in that order.

Don't forget about Brandon Belt and Yonder Alonso who are an injury from full time gigs.  Also, Eric Hosmer and potentially Jesus Montero (if he isn't a catcher) are big time bats who are a year away.

Golf tomorrow, second basemen Wednesday.

Cheers,
TFAM

No comments: