As I stated with my ranking of the outfielders, I'm a firm believer that fantasy leagues are won with outfielders and starting pitchers. These two areas are where bargains are easy to find, and those bargains will carry you to victory. In the first of two leagues I won last year, my starting staff was comprised of Grienke, Felix, Verlander, Lackey, Ubaldo, and Matt Cain. The team dominated the pitching cats, and had enough offense to win. In the other, my staff was Lincy, Gallardo, Billingsley and Kershaw, which was a staff that carried me all year, leaked oil at the end, and was rescued by Mr. Pujols and Mr. Holliday, who carried me to victory in the fantasy playoffs (along with a nice little push by Drew Stubbs...love Stubbs this year). Anyway, as with outfielders, you have to pck and choose wisely with SPs, and you will see my rankings are weighted heavily toward Ks. I do not take pitchers whose K/9 is anywhere below 7. Strikeout pitchers wins leagues.
1. T. Lincecum -- Easy choice. Safest play of anyone outside of Pujols, I think.
2. R. Halladay -- Wasn't great late last year, but should thrive in NL.
3. F. Hernandez -- No reason not to like him, Cy Young?
4. Z. Grienke -- Don't be scared by KC. Chasing wins is a mistake. Zack delivers the goods.
5. J. Verlander -- Led majors with 269 Ks.
6. D. Haren -- Sick WHIP and K's have increased every year. Halladay and Haren are close, the second tier ends here for me...top six are true aces.
7. CC Sabathia -- Struggles early. I'll pass and try and buy low in May.
8. A. Wainwright -- He and Lester are close, I'll opt for the guy who doesn't pitch in AL East.
9. J. Lester -- 225 K, can be an ace if he starts well.
10. J. Santana -- I still believe and think the elbow surgery may help. Can't argue with ballpark.
11. J. Johnson -- What's not to like? Five cat contibutor.
12. C. Lee -- I just get a little leary of guys changing teams, but Lee should be good in Seattle. I won't take him though.
13. Y. Gallardo -- I love the K's, but he can get wild.
14. C. Carpenter -- Health questions remain for me, but 25 starts keeps him in top 15, maybe top 10.
15. J. Beckett -- I didn't think he had a good year. Still posted 17 W, 199 K, 3.86, 1.19.
16. C. Kershaw -- Love Kershaw this year. He could be top 10 in 2011. Innings and K's will increase.
17. C. Hamels -- Third tier starts here. These guys are number two guys at best, and would be great threes. Questions for all of them. Hamels can and should rebound.
18. M. Cain -- 2.89, 1.18 may have been a bit lucky, but even a dropoff is okay with me. Safe stats here.
19. T. Hanson -- Will he get the innings? Strikouts and ratios should be great. Upside from here.
20. U. Jimenez -- Love everything about him except the innings. He was worked hard in a lot of starts last year. I owned him, and followed him closely. He is easy top 15 if he stays healthy, but of the non-obvious injury guys, he's the most likely to break down, in my book.
21. M. Garza -- I love Garza this year.
22. J. Vazquez -- I wrote all you need to know here. Stay away.
23. J. Lackey -- He scares me too. Angels didn't go out of their way to keep him.
24. R. Nolasco -- Okay, all these guys scare me until further notice. For me, you have to get at least two from the top 21, and three would be best. Then, sit it our for a while until upside plays late.
25. B. Anderson -- He can be had later than this, but imprssive stats for a rookie.
26. J. Peavy -- Does anyone think he has some left in the tank? I hate the move to the AL, and would trade him in May if I owned him.
27. D. Price -- Another guy you can get a little later than this, but I'd rather have his upside over a guy like Scott Baker anyday.
28. AJ Burnett -- At least the Ks will be there.
29. Jered Weaver -- Was surprisingly good in '09 across the board, 16 W, 174 K, 3.75, 1.24.
30. B. Webb -- Injury news already making Webb a bad gamble again.
31. R. Porcello -- Scary ends here, now upside plays are worth it. I like Porcello a lot. If his K rate rises to his minor league levels, he's a stud.
32. M. Scherzer -- He gets the K's, but his league change is scary, ok I lied.
33. J. Cueto -- Really, it's gamble on upside time, and Cueto has a little post hype sleepers status.
34. J. Jurrjens -- Not enough Ks for me (152).
35. S. Kazmir -- He goes from AL East to AL West. 2010 will tell us everything we need to know.
36. C. Buchholz -- He is very up and down, but worth a gamble in the back half of your staff.
37. R. Oswalt -- The poster child of a guy I won't own. Stats have dropped very year since 2005.
38. W. Rodriguez -- The one young guy I've never even considered. Why do people like him again?
39. R. Harden -- I'm over him, Ks are nice, but injuries and stats are trending the wrong way.
40. C. Billingsley -- Speaking of guys I'm over, he almost bled my team to death down the stretch.
41. E. Jackson -- Change of leagues should be good...so should Padres and Giants lineups.
42. M. Latos -- He is going to win a spot and is the Padres current #1, forget about future.
43. W. Davis -- Another young guy to gamble on. I love the Rays this year.
44. K. Slowey -- I like him more than Baker, which is apparently not the popular opinion.
45. B. Sheets -- Enjoy the starts he makes, DL guys aren't that bad at this point.
46. J. Shields -- Stats are trending in the wrong direction. I'll only take him late.
47. S. Baker -- Way too inconsistent.
48. T. Hudson -- Where is the upside. The problem with drafting guys like Hudson is that they suck for you all year and you have a hard time cutting them because of their name.
49. J. Danks -- I liked him a lot more before a worthless 2009.
50. B. Matusz -- I'd like him a lot more if he didn't play in Baltimore. More of a 2011 breakout.
51. S. Strasburg -- Where to rank him? Safe to say he's in the top 35 once he gets the call.
52. S. Feldman -- I believe in the stats, just no Ks because his cutter is his weapon.
53. H. Kuroda -- Safe play, should be very average if that is what you like.
54. H. Bailey -- His September stats were great, but can he carry that over? I wouldn't count on him as anything more than an upside flier.
55. E. Santana -- Just hasn't been the same guy since Tommy John.
56. B. Myers -- I like the change of scenery for Myers. Could surprise.
57. P. Hughes -- He'll win the job, can he carry bullpen success to rotation? I love Hughes, but am worried about him settling in.
58. F. Liriano -- The ultimate wild card. Upside is huge, and probably makes him worth a pick here. I still need to see it in games though.
59. J. Sanchez -- How much do you need the Ks? Enough to wreck your WHIP?
60. C. Zambrano -- His stats are trending in the wrong direction. Let someone else deal with him.
61. A. Sanchez -- Call me a believer. He finished strong enough for one more look.
62. J. Pineiro -- No Ks and a switch to the AL, no thans (see, no Ks).
63. E. Bedard -- Enjoy the 15 starts. Anything more would be a shocker.
64. T. Cahill -- Probably overhyped in '09, underhyped in 2010. Breakout possible, but K's need to be there for value.
65. B. Morrow -- He has the K potential, but has never lived up to hype.
66. D. Matsuzaka -- WHIP just kills his value.
67. C. Pavano -- Call me crazy, I can see sub 4 ERA in 2010.
68. C. Richard -- Only positive is Petco. Still, ERA under 4 has value.
69. J. Masterson -- He gets one more year, and about two starts, before he is free agent fodder.
70. G. Floyd -- I'm just not a fan, no upside.
71. M. Parra -- Upside K gamble on former top prospect.
72. D. Holland -- Another former top prospect battling for a spot in Rangers rotation. Check on his status in late March.
73. D. McGowan -- He'll start the year on the DL, which should allow you to get him cheaply. Jordan Zimmerman also starts of the DL, but isn't going to be ready until late in the year. Tommy John crushed his value.
74. A. Pettitte -- He never really helps, but may win some games.
75. J. Chamberlain -- I think he's destined for the pen.
Obviously there are a lot of guys I just left off. De La Rosa, Buehrle, Saunders, Harang, Wolf, Lowe, Lilly, Happ, etc. I just don't think anyone not on the list is going to be worth drafting. You can add guys all the time who can do what they do, and really, you may as well add the last 10 guys on the list to that category as well. Only about four starters can be permanent on your roster. The last two starters will change all year long. As far as propects go, Stras, Matusz and Davis made the list, and Neftali Feliz would have too if I knew he would start. Keep an eye on him. After that, the heralded Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Drabek and Jeremy Hellickson are likely to get the call at some point, and Martin Perez and Christian Frederich are two lefties with high strikeout upsides that could see action later in the year, but that would only be if everything breaks right.
Cheers,
TFAM
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