Monday, March 8, 2010

Twin Killers

Quickly, a few rites of spring.   Thinking about planing some grass, driving around with no wiper fluid, ducks in the backyard (you know you have drainage issues when you see a few mallards just paddling laong in the lake that has formed outside the window), and baseball players speaking as if this will be the year.

"I'm in the best shape of my life"

"My arm feels better than it has in years"

"He looks like he's really grown up"

I just get tired of hearing so many glorious statements in March about guys who are going to really put it together this year that, for one reason or another, haven't done so in the past.  This year, we're hearing great things about Delmon Young ("he's lost weight", "he seems to be more mature") and Francisco Liriano ("he looked great in winter ball", "his slider looks like it did in 2006").  Whatever.  Wake me when a svelte figure improves your eye at the plate, and when the Santo Domingo turns into the Bronx.  The data on these guys is what we have to look at, and to be honest, Delmon and Francisco have teased us before, but niether has even been fantasy relevant since 2006.  Think about that.  That is four years ago.  Now I'm suppsed to invest a mid round pick or five bucks in my auction on someone who can't hit a line drive because he is eating one less meal a day? 

I like upside as much as anyone (and I'd love for DY and Franke to break out), but find said upside plays in youth and stats.  Close your ears and ingore what people are saying about themsleves or their own players.  You think that information isn't biased?

When it comes to your draft, lay off Delmon and Liriano.  You'd be better off with Colby Rasmus and Mat Latos.

Cheers,
TFAM

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