Arnold Palmer Invitational

Time for some iced tea and lemonade, as the PGA Tour takes on Bay Hill this week in the king's house.  Who is going to win?  I have an idea, but I seem to be better at picking guys who finish second, as KJ Choi did last week.

Tiger won here last year, but he is apparently spending his time at Augusta this week instead of Bay Hill.  That opens it up for a host of others, most notably Phil Mickelson, who is a former champ here (1997) and has three other top fives at this course.  Phil has been erratic this year, and actually hasn't played well in his last two turns here, but I like him this week, a lot.

My main man Sean O'Hair had a 2nd and a 3rd in his last two starts at Bay Hill.  He also has frustrated the bejeezus out of me so far in 2010.  I like his game, but hate the way he's playing.  Speaking of hate, Vijay is out again this week, which is just killing the team I have where I can start six guys a week.  I do like the way that others of that team are playing though.  Els is here this week, and is a solid bet coming off the win at the WGC.  Justin Rose seems to be finding his game too, and Rickie Fowler has been a pleasant surprise (save for his double on the first last Sunday that may have cost me huge).  All those guys are in play this week and should be top 25 finishers.

The stars here include last week's winner, Jim Furyk, but he doesn't play well here.  Stenson, Goosen, Allenby, Villegas and the hot South African, Charl Schwartzel round out the international bigwigs.  Stricker, Watney and Mahan are here from the American side.  Of all those guys, Mahan, Watney, Allenby and Goosen are really the only guys with any positive trends on this course.

You want a sleeper?  Pat Perez has a great scoring average at Bay Hill, and has three top tens in seven starts here.

Most talent
Mickelson
Stricker
Els
Goosen
Stricker

Course history
O' Hair
Mickelson
Z. Johnson
Watney
Els

Who's hot?
Furyk
Els
Villegas
Schwartzel
Choi

Who's not?
O' Hair
Z. Johnson
R. Moore
Love
Weekley

My picks
Mickelson
Els
Watney
Mahan
Schwartzel

Cheers,
TFAM