Monday, June 7, 2010

Giancarlo Cruz-Michael Stanton

As the 21st century Babe Ruth makes his way to the big leagues (could we be channeling the Babe twice in one decade with all the Bryce Harper hype?), it is certainly worth our time to figure out what to expect in the short and long term from Mike Stanton -- and yes, his real name is as stated above.

Stanton has been teraing up AA this season with 21 home runs in just 190 ABs, which is a sickening pace of one homer per every 9.04 at bats.  He's shown the mammoth power at each level, so we know that will translate to the majors.  Another skill that will carry over is the propensity to whiff, which he has done 371 times in just short of 1200 career minor league at bats.  He's brought his K ratio down a bit each year, but we're still talking about a guy who is going to go up (and down) hacking.

As far as batting average goes, Stanton is sitting at .311 so far this season, but in a full campaign at two levels in 2009, he hit just .255.  It's safe to say he's grown as a hitter in 2010, but the big league average isn't going to touch .300.

So, what can we expect.  I expect lots of power and lots of strikeouts.  I also expect pitchers to test Stanton's plate discipline.  If he can lay off the pitches out of the zone, Stanton is going to be a major force right away.  But, he's never been a huge walk guy in the minors (59 in 2009), so I think we are going to see some struggles as well.  The verdict?  He'll crush mistakes and hit some bombs, but the averge is low, and he's going to be a work in progress learning the major league zone.

As far as playing time goes, the Marlins would be foolish to bring him up and sit him on the pine.  He's playing, and I would expect Cam Maybin, Cody Ross and Chris Coghlan to each see a slight dip in playing time, with Ross being the one that will fall out of favor by season's end (as the fish fade from contention).

Cheers,
TFAM

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